Special thanks to this month’s donor, who wishes to remain anonymous. A fresh dog video to lift spirits: https://youtube.com/shorts/bigFCTStgfo?si=HY_6hROUkJg8Z9aC
“What are the consequences of an escalating global arms race? Annual military spending is rising globally at its steepest level since the Cold War.
“And after a break of more than 30 years, the United States says it might restart testing nuclear weapons. So if the global arms race is back on, who’s winning, how is war changing, and what’s the true cost of escalation?”
“Child casualties from explosive weapons at record high.
“…explosive weapons – mainly state owned – were responsible for more than 60 per cent of all conflict-related child deaths and injuries between 2020 and 2024. In total, there were almost 50,000 casualties, equivalent to 200 passenger planes full of children.”
“G20 countries’ medium-term growth to be weakest since 2009 crisis, IMF says.
“In a report to the Group of 20, the global lender mapped out a series of challenges facing the global economy, including widening excessive balances and stretched public coffers, as well as aging populations in advanced economies.”
“Private credit markets and stablecoins need close monitoring, G20 watchdog tells leaders…
“It underlined the “urgency” of improving cross-border payments and developing “robust frameworks” for stablecoins – types of cryptocurrencies that are pegged 1:1 to a real-world currency or asset, usually the U.S. dollar.”
“How Crypto Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis…
“Most people understand that cryptocurrencies are volatile and speculative. Bitcoin, ether, and other name-brand cryptocurrencies fluctuate in value day by day, year by year. Stablecoins are meant to do away with these fluctuations, yet they pose what may be a larger threat to the wider financial system.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/11/cryptocurrency-economy-financial-crisis/684960/
“The AI Bubble Is Bigger Than You Think. It’s not just OpenAI that looks overhyped. There’s a whole mountain of sketchy financial engineering underneath…
“The deals being made are perverse and irrational; there are huge mismatches between the life cycle of the assets being funded and the amount of time it will take to pay them off. Experts have been doing everything but picketing the stock exchange with signs that say “BUBBLE IN PROGRESS,” yet the country has so much sunk cost in the AI boom that the pathway feels inevitable.”
https://prospect.org/2025/11/19/ai-bubble-bigger-than-you-think/
“Every [AI] company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with ALL the give-and-take deals would be unreadable.
“The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers. If you can name OpenAI’s auditor in 1 hour you win some pride.”
[Michael Burry on X]
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1991292814647259297
“AI bubble fears return as Wall Street falls back from short-lived rally.
“Wall Street initially rose after Nvidia, the world’s largest public company, reassured investors of strong demand for its advanced data center chips. But the relief dissipated, and technology stocks at the heart of the AI boom came under pressure.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/20/stock-markets-ai-nvidia
“Today’s move in Nvidia is truly historic.
“Between 4:00 AM ET yesterday and 2:00 PM ET today, Nvidia, $NVDA, both ADDED and LOST $450 billion in market cap. That’s a $900 billion swing in less than 36 hours.” [Kobeissi Letter]
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1991589380084105240
“The Warning Signal That Preceded Every Crash Since 1929 Just Flashed Again.
“High margin balances on their own are not always a problem. The issue comes when borrowing grows much faster than underlying asset prices. Today, margin debt equals about 3.6% of U.S. GDP… On an inflation-adjusted basis, margin debt is now 6.7 times higher than 1929 levels.”
“All the signs that America may be teetering on the brink of recession.
“Underneath the AI sheen, US unemployment is rising and households are burdened with debt… But McDonald’s decision to reintroduce “Extra Value Meals” for $5 (£3.82) and $8 in September for the first time in six years was not a symbol of the president’s success in bringing down the cost of living. Instead, it is one of many symptoms of the deep cracks that are spreading…”
“‘This is a structural goods recession’: U.S. freight market is starting to roll over as Chinese trade plummets…
“Electronics, furniture, and toys have been identified in this freight pullback, while U.S. grain exports have also been hit by trade policy, with China increasing its purchase of soybeans from Brazil during the trade war.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/trump-tariffs-trade-china-import-decline-freight-recession.html
“China’s chip war is only just beginning. Geopolitical tensions are heightening and the costs will soon fall on us all…
“In recent years, governments grew increasingly anxious about the security risks posed if their most advanced chips – those used in AI and military technology – fell into the wrong hands, and started taking measures to secure their supply chains and control exports.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2025/11/21/china-chip-war-is-only-just-beginning/
“China Weighs New Property Stimulus Package as Crisis Lingers.
“China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system, according to people familiar with the matter.”
“China says trade cooperation with Japan ‘severely damaged’ by Taiwan comments…
“”Prime Minister Takaichi’s openly erroneous remarks concerning Taiwan have fundamentally undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations and severely damaged bilateral economic and trade exchanges,” He Yongqian, a ministry spokesperson told a regular news conference.”
“Scramble to ‘sell Japan’ sounds fiscal warning bells.
“Investors bailing out of the yen and Japan’s government bonds have driven borrowing costs there to record highs, bending markets out of shape and piling pressure on the country’s policymakers as they try to pilot the economy through a rough patch.”
“Deutsche Bank Warns of Japan Capital Flight in Echo of UK Crisis.
“Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans have sent Japan’s bonds and currency tumbling, raising the specter of an unruly capital flight reminiscent of the turmoil that nearly broke the UK bond market in 2022, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of currency research.”
“[Korean] Won’s real purchasing power falls to lowest since financial crisis…
“Data from the Bank for International Settlements released on Tuesday showed that Korea’s real effective exchange rate — set with 2020 as the baseline of 100 — stood at 90.57 in September, even lower than the rate in the wake of the Dec. 3 martial law declaration.”
“UK government borrows more than expected in setback before budget.
“The chancellor will deliver her second budget next Wednesday against a difficult political background, after the Treasury floated and then ditched plans to raise income tax. She is expected to raise taxes significantly, in response to a downgrade in economic forecasts…”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/21/uk-government-borrowing-october-rachel-reeves
“Returning to London after a year in the countryside, the signs of societal collapse are everywhere – even at 7am…
“I make my way along Edgware Road, currently a maze of metal fencing and roadworks, past closed pubs, seemingly abandoned churches and mysterious ‘self-storage’ depots, where I see piles of dirty rags and sleeping bags filling the doorways, hands and feet poking out.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-15311313/london-societal-collapse-amanda-williams.html
“‘People tell me they haven’t eaten in days’…
“…the BBC has found that soaring numbers of people are arriving at hospital either malnourished or with nutrient deficiencies. Data obtained by Freedom of Information (FOI) request from several NHS trusts across the South East shows hospital admissions related to these two conditions in some cases doubled and nearly tripled in recent years.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd67q034e7no
“More than half of Dutch nationals (56%) are avoiding turning on their heating as rising energy bills push households into financial hardship.
“The Consumer Justice Foundation’s nationwide study found this figure climbs to 63% among over-65s and families with children.”
“Germany’s problems are worse than you think…
“the country is in a deep industrial malaise: in one recent month, the level of industrial production fell to its lowest level in 20 years. The plight was poignantly portrayed in an FT Big Read last week, in which my colleagues asked: “Can anything halt the decline of German industry?””
https://www.ft.com/content/a97f43aa-35f9-43b5-997a-24d26683e9f6
“Serbian president faces legal complaint in Sarajevo ‘sniper-tourism’ case…
“A Croatian investigative reporter has filed a complaint with Milan prosecutors against the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, for his alleged involvement in the “Sarajevo safari” affair, in which snipers from Italy and other countries allegedly travelled to the Bosnian capital to kill civilians…”
“More details of US plan for Ukraine emerge, sees territory ceded to Russia…
“Details of the plan emerged after US ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told the UN Security Council on Thursday afternoon that the US had offered “generous terms for Russia, including sanctions relief”.”
“Russia’s Central Bank Starts Selling Physical Gold From Reserves.
“Russia’s Central Bank has for the first time begun selling physical gold from its reserves as part of Finance Ministry operations to fund the state budget, the Bank said on Wednesday. The move mirrors previous transactions involving gold from the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which until now were largely virtual.”
“Nepal unrest returns: Why are Gen-Z protesters clashing with KP Sharma Oli’s party again?
“…Tension flared on Thursday in Simara Chowk after Gen-Z demonstrators returned to the streets, alleging that police had failed to arrest individuals named in their complaint from the previous day’s clashes. According to The Kathmandu Post, crowds began assembling from 11 AM…”
“Anger grows as Delhi’s residents take to streets over toxic air: ‘People have woken up’.
“The demonstration, the latest in a series of protests over air pollution just this month, reflected a growing frustration among people who said appeals for urgent action had gone unanswered for years.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/delhi-air-pollution-protest-aqi-b2868180.html
“Indian authorities raid Kashmir Times office, seize equipment and documents…
“”The raid on the Kashmir Times office is deeply troubling and raises concerns about increasing pressure on media outlets in Jammu and Kashmir,” said CPJ’s Asia-Pacific Program Coordinator Kunal Majumder, calling for transparency and a clear explanation of the legal basis for the operation.”
https://www.trtworld.com/article/abf4f7770e57
“Olive farmers face danger, neglect after Israel’s war in southern Lebanon.
“The orchard, which once contained 200 olive trees and dozens of other fruit-bearing trees, is now largely destroyed. After a ceasefire was declared between Hezbollah and Israel in November 2024, ending a one-year war, the Israeli army entered the area, bulldozed the land, and uprooted trees…”
“West Bank: After nine months of Israeli military operations, refugee camps are ‘uninhabitable’.
“The destruction of buildings, water pipes and the electrical system by the Israeli army has made it impossible for the 30,000 forcibly displaced Palestinians to return to normal daily life.”
“Israeli airstrikes kill 33 people in Gaza in escalation of post-ceasefire attacks.
“Israel said it launched the attacks after its soldiers came under fire in Khan Younis on Wednesday, though they suffered no reported casualties. Hamas condemned the Israeli strikes as a “shocking massacre” and denied firing toward Israeli troops.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/20/israeli-airstrikes-gaza-ceasefire-khan-younis
“CNN finds evidence Tanzanian police killed protesters.
“In an exclusive investigation, CNN has found evidence that Tanzanian police used deadly fire on protesters following a disputed election in October. Forensic analysis of graphic videos and imagery reveals how protesters were killed by police and indicates mass graves concealing the scale of the brutal crackdown.”
“The fight for the Red Sea escalates.
“Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea…”
https://www.africa-confidential.com/article-preview/id/15731/the-fight-for-the-red-sea-escalates
“Scramble for Sudan’s resources fuels brutal civil war.
“The swathes of fertile farmland in Sudan, Africa’s third-largest country and a potential agricultural breadbasket, have whetted the appetite of the desert Gulf countries across the Red Sea. Before the war, the UAE poured vast funds into Sudan…”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251121-scramble-for-sudan-s-resources-fuels-brutal-civil-war
“At least 17 Niger soldiers killed after terrorists overrun gendarmerie post.
“At least 17 Nigerien soldiers were killed on Wednesday when ISGS terrorists launched a coordinated assault on a gendarmerie post in Garbougna, a locality on the Tera–Niamey road in the Tillaberi region, according to security sources.”
https://www.trtafrika.com/english/article/c6907f7ecd6c
“Chad: Authorities failing to address deadly clashes between herders and farmers amid climate crisis…
“Tensions between herders and farmers are exacerbated by demographic pressure, the effects of human-induced climate change, particularly on herd movements, and competition for access to natural resources. Rising temperatures in the center of the country have led many herders to move further south…”
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/11/chad-clashes-herders-farmers/
And in case you missed it: “Fire disrupts last-minute efforts to strike global deal at COP30…
“13 people were treated for smoke inhalation, officials said, with the cause thought to be an electrical fault… it will make the hard task of negotiations even harder, and they had already missed a self-imposed deadline to wrap up the first batch of deals on Wednesday evening.”
https://news.sky.com/story/fire-disrupts-last-minute-efforts-to-strike-global-deal-at-cop30-13473401
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Remember posting here a while back about the difference in how FF value/production chains work versus “renewable” tech (or rather non-renewable tech produced and operated through direct and indirect consumption of non-renewable energy and resources, used to generate energy from renewable sources… but I digress). The former tends to be less complex and spread out than the latter, which constrains the intensity of exploitation at the various points of production. The latter due to being distributed over many different countries as well as different sectors within countries can both exploit labor (e.g via subcontracting/informalization) and abstract itself away from real resource/environmental costs much more effectively.
I found this Indian government survey from 2016 where they specifically look at wages across different minerals, which is the kind of data I was looking for to support my theory.
https://labourbureau.gov.in/assets/images/pdf/OWS_7th_MINING_Jul_Dec_2016.pdf
A graph on page 32 of the report (page 40 of the pdf) illustrates average daily earnings for time and piece rated workers respectively:
Coal – 1516, 1381
Oil – 1471 (only time rate data provided, likely because piece rate work is rare.)
Iron – 801, 444
Manganese – 652, 1041
While this does not directly support my “value chain complexity inherently implies displaced/hidden costs” theory, it does seem to indicate that labor costs of fossil fuel extraction are higher than those of minerals comprising more complex and therefore hierarchical production chains.
Also interesting is the fact that the piece rate wage in manganese mining fares much better relative to coal and iron, hence likely more prevalent there. Piece rate work is a hallmark of informal employment, which as I said probably comprises a much larger share of renewables production versus FFs.
Jupiviv, some fossil fuel value/production chains are themselves pretty complex – think deep-sea drilling, LNG production or pipeline infrastructure – but what you say makes sense intuitively. I suspect your hypothesis is sound.
Love your reporting.
The child casualties is horrific.
AI in about a year: https://youtu.be/mFCDZeaDpYY?si=6-kBOWzxZCCypZsn
Thanks for the compliment, Truth Wizard.
Re child casualties, French General, Fabien Mandon, is making waves for suggesting that France should be ‘prepared to lose children’ facing down the Russian threat.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/11/20/outcry-after-french-army-chief-s-prepared-to-lose-children-warning_6747661_7.html
Pan wrote(in yesterday’s post): I always circle back to the problem that we have collectively created a self-organising, energy-dissipating superorganism with its own emergent agenda to convert ever greater quantities of the earth’s crust into goods and services… until the wheels come off.
James: Heya Pan. I’ve seen you write this comment—or at least paraphrases of said comment—a few times over the last few years I’ve been reading your blog, but have never bothered to look into, nor ask you, what it might mean. Would you mind linking me to a book, blog, podcast, YT vid, or whatever, that can unpack the meaning of this?
I ask because the whole determinism/free will issue—at least on an individual level—is something that first inhabited me noggin’ in the mid-90s, while still an undergrad Arts student. I recall many a late night, insomaniacally obsessing over the issue, Sony Walkman in hand (I stuck with cassettes for ages!), oftentimes unable to catch a wink of ZZZzzzzzzs until 3-4 am.
I guess I’m becoming more interested in a systems/collective approach to this question, and it seems this is something you may have put some thought-energy into? The last book I read on this topic was Sapolsky’s Determined: A Science of Life without Free Will.
James, I am a bit of a stuck record when it comes to this, but it is fundamental to understanding how we got here and where we are headed.
Nate Hagens’ “Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism” is an academic paper but very digestible:
“In pursuit of economic growth, modern human culture appears as a self-organized, mindless, energy seeking Superorganism, functioning in similar ways to a brainless amoeba using simple tropisms.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067
If you want something quicker; David Korowicz covers it very well in this interview:
“… the globalised economy is an autocatalytic system, that is, it creates the conditions requiring its own expansion. It’s a self-organizing process, without designer or central control, it’s how ecosystems evolve, it’s Adam Smith’s invisible hand.”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-19/how-to-be-trapped-an-interview-with-david-korowicz/
TY, Pan will check those links out in the morning. Will maybe be back in a few days with some thoughts after some thinking about them.
It’s late here in East Coast Australia, but I am a night owl. 🦉 HOOT!!! HOOT!!! Meaning, I am in music mode. And I know you want another 80s classic tune right now.
SO.
John Farnham – Pressure Down (1986
John Farnham is considered an Australian national treasure, BTW. The album this is from, Whispering Jack, was chart topping in Australia 1986. And yeah, I think this song is collapse-related.
James, the website CollapseMusings.com, besides having great essays, it also has an extensive music playlist of 150 Collapse songs.
The Resource sub-link features other good websites with Pan’s C&E as top billing.
Bob Shaw. Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks, Bob,
I can’t find the songs part of your link?
And I also thnk it’s OK to be posting song links here unless Pan or Cass tell me “No, no, little ninja.”
Use the search function of the website. Type in : my playlist of Collapse songs.
I had not seen that website before. It’s really good. I love seeing that C & E is at the top. It looks to me like Alan Urban put the site together. I don’t recognize that name but hats off to you, Alan!
That is a great website – I am honoured. I actually do know the name Alan Urban from somewhere in the doomosphere, but my tired brain cannot dredge up the details.
James, I only know John Farnham from his anthemic hit, “Your the Voice.” I’m liking “Pressure Down”… Cash Box magazine called it “A summer’s breeze of a pop tune, with razor-sharp production.” …Agreed. 😎
Heya Bob, just had another look and used your search suggestion. Cool song list:
https://www.collapsemusings.com/my-playlist-for-the-collapse/
Great website too! Thanks for sharing.
But Adam Smith included morality AND was concerned with people owning assets – in terms of they would not actually work, but sit on their bums raking in the money from rents. (See today!)
He said something along the lines of allowing people to own heaps of assets would destroy democracy.
Personally I think we need the checks and balances that we had back in the 70’s, no buy-backs of shares and BIG taxes on passive income, etc.
One problem with scroungers like Musk and such, is that they have no sense of responsibility towards other humans.
“A nation is not made wealthy by the childish accumulation of shiny metals, but is enriched by the economic prosperity of its people.”
“No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.”
“Wherever there is great property, there is great inequality.”
“The disposition to admire, and almost to worship, the rich and powerful, and to despise, or at least, to neglect persons of poor and mean condition is the great and most universal cause of the corruption of our moral sentiments.”
“An oligarchic democracy might be worse for the poor than an arbitrary government if the state is not sufficiently autonomous from moneyed interests.”
Etc.
Neo-liberalism was never Adam Smith’s idea. He has been misrepresented. He’s not that laissez-faire guy they want him to be.
Hayek, Ayn Rand/Objectivism, Milton Friedman and others are wrong – we need strong democratic governments to put in place checks and balances, controls and taxes, good, strong regulations and for them to work for the majority of people, not the narrow band of super-rich.
The Nobel Prize for Economics last year was awarded for a study concluding that strong regulations lead to a prosperous nation.
Conversely, places with few rules often end up being dishonest and poor.
America created the conditions for Trump. That’s why Trump is President. Low regulations, high corruption: The USA made a summoning circle for the likes of Trump.
Mad Hatter, it is an oversimplification of Adam Smith’s theory, but I think it fits here in the sense that unexpected emergent properties arise in economies over and above the outcomes intended by the individuals operating within them.
“…we need strong democratic governments to put in place checks and balances, controls and taxes.”
I’m afraid we are not going to get those in a world where prosperity is flagging due to declining surplus energy and other growth-constraints.
This book, “Normal Accidents”, by Charles Perrow sheds light onto Mr. Pan’s saying. It talks about technical things like nuclear power plants, airplanes, and such, but applies to any system that is large and complex like today’s global internet supported monetary and economic system as well. It is worth the read.
Robert, thank you – I’m a fan of Joseph Tainter’s diminishing marginal returns on social complexity theory, and Perrow’s ideas sound like they complement that nicely. For the uninitiated:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter
It’s cold in the Auvergne tonight – minus ten.
Here in France, town halls and emergency shelters are opening their doors again to take in the homeless and those who can’t afford heating or meals. A familiar ritual, with student lunches served for one euro a day in university cafeterias. Food and energy poverty, à la française.
In the United States they do it differently, and McDonald’s takes the lead — but it’s the same barometer telling us that, despite the CAC 40 and the Vuitton-Hennessy mirage, the economic crisis has already become real.
And somewhere in the fluorescence of the fast-food cathedrals, between the sweet grease of the fries and the monotone hum of the milkshake machines, you can feel the real heartbeat of America. Not the deceitful neural network of Wall Street, but that anonymous line of people inching forward as if participating in a ritual: the sacred transfer of a cardboard bag filled with caloric comfort.
Hunter S. Thompson would have recognized it instantly: that trembling, nervous moment when an empire loses its façade, not through war, but through inflation of the soul. A five-dollar meal isn’t an economic indicator, it’s a panic button. It’s the Big Mac whispering: “Friend, we are deep in the tunnel. The exit is a QR code that doesn’t work.”
You see people ordering as if it might be their last hot meal before the next rate hike. You see them slurp the cola with that particular kind of resignation that only appears when a country is just barely managing to believe in its own story. Behind the counter runs an underpaid crew on Red Bull and desperation, while the corporate office on the 52nd floor of a glass tower insists that “consumer sentiment is stabilizing.”
Stabilizing? Listen closely and you can hear the cracking. Not from the bun, but from the hinges of the American Dream. The whole place runs on debt, hype, and ketchup packets. And above it looms the colossal shadow of AI giants devouring energy like prehistoric beasts, while the average citizen calculates how many days remain until the next paycheck.
MAGA hasn’t solved a thing. But the Big Mac has: it lays the truth bare on a plastic tray. No analyses, no indices, no Powell mumbling that everything is “transitory.” Only that burger staring back at you and saying: The end always begins at the level of fast food.
Thank you, Zip – splendid and poetic stuff. The cold has been with us, too. Several spots in Scotland below -18C last night.
Re fast food restaurants, I watched this video the other night and, if the talking heads featured in the clips are representative, the big chains are losing custom now for charging too steeply:
“America’s Restaurants Are Empty and Overpriced in 2025 because everyday Americans simply can’t afford to eat out anymore. Prices are skyrocketing, wages aren’t keeping up, and the cost of living crisis, inflation, and economic instability are hitting families hard.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnTTIFJWDto
https://youtu.be/3cstgXIyKH8?si=PNYHc_fifQmUFKq8
This sums up things today. Frosty the chronically depressed snowman
Poor, poor Harvey. 😥
Do not know why, but the site Naked Capitalism, has reposted most of your links from nov21 in their “Nov 22, 2025” Links
China?
China Weighs New Property Stimulus Package as Crisis Lingers Bloomberg
U.S. rare earth ambitions center on Malaysia. But China’s already there. Washington Post (resilc)
Japan-China Row
China says trade cooperation with Japan ‘severely damaged’ by Taiwan comments Reuters
Deutsche Bank Warns of Japan Capital Flight in Echo of UK Crisis Bloomberg
Koreas
Won’s real purchasing power falls to lowest since financial crisis Joongang Daily
…
Old Blighty
UK government borrows more than expected in setback before budget Guardian
Labour plot to slash electricity prices for AI companies The National (Paul R)
Returning to London after a year in the countryside, the signs of societal collapse are everywhere – even at 7am Daily Mail
‘People tell me they haven’t eaten in days’ BBC
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/links-11-22-2025.html
Anonymous, thank you for the heads up, but the lady who runs that site has been kind enough to donate in the past, so I don’t mind her borrowing some links.