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“The global rout in stock markets deepened overnight as more than $500bn (£384bn) was wiped off the value of artificial intelligence (AI) chip makers…
“…Meanwhile it emerged that, Michael Burry, the investor depicted in The Big Short who bet against the housing market ahead of the global financial crisis, had placed heavy positions against Palantir and Nvidia.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/11/05/ai-stock-sell-off-ftse-100-markets-latest/
“The mind-boggling valuations of AI companies… Last week, the chipmaker Nvidia hit a valuation of $5tn. Just three months prior, it became the world’s first $4tn company. Microsoft reached a $4tn valuation last week, as did Apple…
“OpenAI, recently converted to a for-profit enterprise and mulled an initial public offering at a valuation of $1tn.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2025/nov/04/the-mind-boggling-valuations-of-ai-companies
“UBS chair warns of ‘looming systemic risk’ from private credit ratings…
“…Colm Kelleher said the insurance industry, especially in the US, was engaging in “ratings arbitrage” akin to what banks and other institutions did with subprime loans before the 2008 financial crisis.“
https://www.ft.com/content/73ee8c6d-3c04-425e-9d2c-ecbf2f376a4f
“A risky mortgage instrument that helped spark the Global Financial Crisis is on the rise again. It’s a gamble on the Fed’s future direction,
“Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), once the villain of the subprime meltdown, are surging in popularity as homebuyers look for savings in a high-rate era. The share of ARMs reached nearly 13% of all mortgage applications this fall, per the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level since 2008.”
https://fortune.com/2025/11/04/adjustable-rate-mortgages-arm-loans-highest-level-since-2008/
“US Federal Reserve pumps cash into Wall Street as banking system shows signs of stress.
“Early warning signs are emerging of the rising danger of another global credit crunch… Analysts warn that if US short-term borrowing costs continue to rise and money market volatility increases, major financial institutions could come under stress.”
“Riskiest Consumer Borrower Ranks Swell as Personal Loans Surge [US].
“The share of consumers in the subprime credit risk category has reached levels not seen since 2019, a sign that a growing number of borrowers are in poor financial health… The shift comes as consumer debt balances grow across the board.”
“On the frontline of America’s car repossession boom…
“Car repossessions are booming as Americans increasingly struggle to pay. The number of seized cars hit a 14-year high of 2.7 million in 2024, according to data from the Recovery Database Network (RDN), which processes around 90pc of all requests from lenders for repossessions.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/11/05/on-the-frontline-of-americas-car-repossession-boom/
“US government shutdown enters 36th day to become longest in history.
“The US government shutdown became the longest in history on Wednesday, crossing the 36-day mark with no end in sight as Republican and Democratic senators remained at loggerheads over restarting funding to shuttered federal departments.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/04/government-shutdown-longest-history
“US-China escalation is here to stay…
“In the short term, US and Chinese leaders will continue trying and failing to capitalise on their imagined advantages. With each round of escalation will come a renewed urgency to de-risk and limit the damage, igniting a painful effort to unwind interdependence.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8471b216-f4e2-4f73-be0f-7c2154abf65e
“US sanctions bankers it says launder cybercrime money to pay for North Korea’s nuclear weapons…
“The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control alleged that North Korean malware and social engineering schemes had diverted more than $3 billion, mostly in digital assets, over the past three years, an amount unmatched by any other foreign actor.”
“Japan’s $132 Billion Borrowing Binge Reshapes Global Credit.
“The end of an era of essentially free money in Japan, a flurry of dealmaking and the AI boom have unleashed record overseas borrowing by the nation’s firms whose renewed swagger is shaking up global markets.”
“‘Minsky Moment’: watchdog boss warns of market collapse [Australia].
“It’s growing at breakneck speed and has been dogged by accusations of poor business practices – now the corporate regulator warns the private credit sector could be the source of Australia’s next financial market collapse.”
“‘Liz Truss moment’ in bond markets warning to chancellor [UK].
“Rachel Reeves needs to find £50 billion in tax rises and spending cuts at the budget or risk a Liz Truss-style crisis in the bond markets, the head of one of the UK’s most respected economic think tanks has warned.”
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/liz-truss-budget-rachel-reeves-g7qs2gqf8
“Up to 1.9 million adults, equivalent to 4% of the population, are estimated to have used unlicensed money lenders or loan sharks in the past 12 months [UK]…
“The cost of living crisis has exacerbated this situation for many, reducing households’ headroom to absorb unexpected financial shocks without turning to alternative means of finance.”
https://www.credit-connect.co.uk/news/1-9m-have-turned-to-loan-sharks-in-the-past-12-months/
“French parliament likely to miss key budget deadline…
“Last week, the National Assembly passed amendments that raised corporate taxes to the government’s dismay, but it failed to adopt a new wealth tax inspired by economist Gabriel Zucman, which was one of the key demands made by the Socialist Party.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/french-parliament-likely-to-miss-first-deadline-in-budget-debates/
“Germany’s Merz wants Syrian refugees to go home.
“Chancellor Friedrich Merz has a simple message for many of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians who found sanctuary in Germany during their country’s long and brutal civil war: It’s time to go back to Syria.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-friedrich-merz-afd-politics-syrians-civil-war-refugees/
“Germany’s higher gas use hampers Europe’s stockpiling drive.
“Germany’s highest gas-fired power generation levels since 2021 are scuppering regional efforts to replenish natural gas stockpiles ahead of the peak season for gas-fired power demand. Below-normal European natural gas inventories – which are usually at their annual peaks by this point in the year – leave the region exposed to power price volatility…”
“Qatar threatens to cut LNG supply to Europe over incoming regulation…
“Qatar will not send LNG to Europe unless the European Union changes its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which is due to come into force next year… energy minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said energy should not be politicised, or be subject to changing politics.”
“NATO tests war preparedness on eastern flank facing Russia.
“On the Mures river in central Romania, French armoured vehicles and Romanian trucks board a motorised floating bridge, part of a large military exercise to showcase NATO’s ability to rapidly increase force levels on its eastern flank facing Russia.”
“Putin hails developers of nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile, in latest signal to the West…
“At an awards ceremony in the Kremlin on Tuesday, Putin claimed the two nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable weapons were of “historic significance” for Russia and “for the entire 21st century.””
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/04/europe/russia-nuclear-burevestnik-poseidon-awards-latam-intl
“Xi eyes deeper China-Russia ties despite ‘turbulent’ external conditions…
“China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that Xi seeks to expand mutual investment with Russia, describing the enhanced ties as a “shared strategic choice” and declaring that the two countries “must maintain close coordination”.”
“Iran’s Deepening Medicine Crisis: Empty Pharmacies, Soaring Prices, and a Nation in Medical Distress.
“Iran’s healthcare crisis has entered a critical phase. Following warnings from the head of the Iranian Nurses’ Association that “many patients are dying due to a lack of nurses,” new domestic reports reveal a parallel catastrophe in the pharmaceutical sector.”
“With Hezbollah rearming, Israel considers heavy hits in Lebanon…
“”We are not talking about an all-out war,” a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We are talking about possibly intensifying our attacks to exact a heavier price from Hezbollah than what we have been exacting from it so far.””
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/11/hezbollah-rearming-israel-considers-heavy-hits-lebanon
“How Israel is using ‘no war, no peace’ Lebanonisation model in Gaza…
“This new status quo allows Israel to strike where it sees fit almost anywhere in the region. Israel has struck Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, and has been accused of attacking Tunisia – without any action taken against it.”
“Tanzania’s instability could harm trade in southern Africa.
“The closure of Dar es Salaam’s port in Tanzania amid election unrest hit Malawi hard as inbound trucks were unable to enter the country for several days. The Malawi–Tanzania border crossings at Songwe and Kasumulu were shut as protesters and police clashed…”
https://www.dw.com/en/tanzanias-instability-could-harm-trade-in-southern-africa/a-74612170
“Sudan civil war spiralling out of control, UN secretary general says…
“The fall of El Fasher gives the RSF control of all five state capitals in Darfur, raising fears that Sudan could in effect be partitioned along an east-west axis, but the Sudanese ambassador to the UK, Babikir Elamin, said there was little support for partition in Darfur itself.”
“Sudan’s Civil War Foreshadows the New World Disorder…
“The biggest role in fomenting Sudan’s mayhem is played by the wealthy Gulf states – in particular the United Arab Emirates, but also Saudi Arabia and Qatar – as well as Egypt. Prizes include agriculture, gold, water and Red Sea ports. China, Eritrea, Iran, Libya and Russia are in the mix, too.”
“Hunger crisis deepens in South Sudan amid conflict, floods, monitor says…
“About 5.97 million South Sudanese, 42 percent of the population analysed, are currently facing acute malnutrition, the IPC said. Some 28,000 people in Luakpiny Nasir and Fangak are already classified as living in catastrophic conditions…”
“Mali on the Brink of Collapse as Jihadists Threaten to Overrun the Country…
“The fuel blockade is part of JNIM’s evolving strategy, which now features an economic warfare component and aims to demonstrate to the Malian population that the current government is incapable of providing for its citizens or protecting them.”
https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-november-4/
“China declare support for Nigeria, oppose US President Trump threat.
“At a press briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasised China’s unwavering support for Nigeria’s sovereignty and development path, warning against foreign interference under the guise of human rights or religion.”
“Russia open to sending hypersonic missiles to Venezuela…
“Alexei Zhuravlyov, the deputy chairman of Russia’s parliamentary defence committee, warned that “the Americans may be in for some surprises” as he opened the door to a weapons transfer to Venezuela.”
“The number of children worldwide living in conflict zones passed the half a billion mark in 2024, rising by 47 million to roughly 520 million, humanitarian group Save the Children said in a report published on Tuesday…
“the report found 11% of the Earth’s landmass could be deemed to be in a conflict zone — the highest share since records began and an increase of almost one-third since 2023.”
https://amp.dw.com/en/over-half-a-billion-children-live-in-conflict-zones-report/a-74613454
“Global conflicts fuel a surge in strokes and heart disease, experts warn…
“…hospital admissions for stroke are up by 16 per cent in Ukraine, with jumps of up to 60 per cent in some front line areas. Experts believe it is highly likely that the same patterns are playing out in other conflict zones such as Sudan and Gaza.”
“Is net zero dead?
“With the Amazon facing irreversible damage, the world meets in Brazil this week for COP30. The climate conference will mark three decades of endless meetings, target setting and finance pledging. But what has been achieved? Emissions are still rising, so are temperatures.”
https://news.sky.com/story/is-net-zero-dead-13463809
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“In the short term, US and Chinese leaders will continue trying and failing to capitalise on their imagined advantages. With each round of escalation will come a renewed urgency to de-risk and limit the damage, igniting a painful effort to unwind interdependence.”
The fantasy of Localism wants to resolve contradictions at home by disavowing them at the international level, i.e degrowth, MAGA etc. This tendency goes back all the way to 19th c utopian socialism and romanticism. The Globalist fantasy (the perspective of this article) wants to resolve international contradictions by disavowing national ones, i.e the standard neoliberal playbook.
Ultimately though they are the same fantasy as Trumpism demonstrates. Reactionary populism is the only form of so called localism that can work, and it works by disavowing local contradictions while intensifying international ones to the benefit of the wealthy and well off at home, all in the name of MAGA.
The reality is that local and global contradictions are two sides of a coin and the prioritisation of one over the other is a cycle, not a spectrum. Both local and global problems (but not the fundamental ones) are patched up in alternating phases by different factions of the ruling class legitimized by the support of different sections of the population.
Thanks Jupiviv for the general reminder that history is cyclical, not linear: an important antidote to our deadly and destructive myths of progress.
Pan’s daily reminders of our non-stop follies, foibles, and failures on a global scale shows us that there really is no such thing as progress when we take an honest look at what we’ve down to this world.
I do agree with you that progress is a myth if it cannot resolve the problem of exploitative social structures and their inherently unsustainable hunger for surplus energy and labour.
I think you misunderstood my point though. I was saying that election cycles are a way for the ruling class to maintain mass support for the actual state apparatus which is neither left nor right, and needs to switch back and forth between different policies in line with changing circumstances. That back and forth is represented to the masses as the kayfabe drama of democracy.
China and the Emirates: the new ‘colonizers’ of Africa
Across Africa, a new kind of colonialism has been unfolding for decades. No flags, no armies—just networks of money, resources, and ports. The struggle for Africa’s future now plays out through contracts, concessions, and logistical corridors. Two powers dominate this new arena: China and the United Arab Emirates.
Their goals differ, as do their methods, yet both are driven by the same fundamental instinct—to secure energy in the broadest sense. Not only oil or gas, but also food, water, minerals, and trade routes.
China continues to follow its industrial logic. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, it has built thousands of kilometers of railways, ports, and dams. The exchange is straightforward: infrastructure for resources. Copper from Zambia, cobalt from Congo, oil from Angola. What China extracts from Africa feeds its industrial machine. The tone is official, diplomatic, always “win-win.” In reality, it is a power asymmetry disguised in the language of development. Africa remains the supplier of raw materials—and now builds the very infrastructure that ensures their smooth extraction.
The Emirates, by contrast, act not from production but from survival. A desert nation without water or arable land, using wealth, technology, and private militias to buy itself an external ecosystem. Their reach stretches along the Red Sea—from Port Sudan to Berbera—and deep inland through agricultural concessions in Sudan and Ethiopia. They are not buying raw materials but the conditions of life itself: irrigation, food, trade routes.
Where China industrializes Africa, the Emirates externalize their ecology.
The first model is driven by growth; the second by the preservation of a desert state. Both are forms of flux colonialism—control over flows instead of land.
Justin here has shown the horror that awaits us all, it has already occurred and because of inertia the tsunami wave will eventually strike as we poke the systems, whatever they may be ….but as Marcus Aurelius penned in his self reflected work, “Mediations”, but first..
For the first time, climate models show the 1.5°C goal is dead
Governments have failed to limit global warming. What comes next?
WHEN THE ECONOMIST warned in 2022 that keeping global warming to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was no longer plausible, we took some flak. Critics worried that such thinking sapped the momentum for decarbonisation. At the time, some climate modellers still believed the 1.5°C target was daunting yet just about doable—if governments moved quickly. Ect , ect , ect..
Observe constantly that all things take place by change, and accustom yourself to consider that the nature of the Universe loves nothing so much as to change the things which are and to make new things like them. For everything that exists is in a manner the seed of that which will be”.
Some things are rushing into existence, others out of it. Some of what now exists is already gone. Change and flux constantly remake the world, just as the incessant progression of time remakes eternity”
Frightened of change? But what can exist without it? What’s closer to nature’s heart?”.
Oh well, thanks Marcus…keep your book handy just to remind me self it’s just the way things are…
Acceptance brings freedom: Resisting change leads to suffering, while acceptance leads to freedom. By accepting that everything is temporary—from our bodies to our circumstances—we can achieve a more peaceful and resilient state of mind.
From AI overview…worth every penny…oops the penny ain’t no more
Mediation of the day: stopping production of the penny makes no cents.
Thank you all, as ever for your comments.
My apologies I cannot reply properly. I am hustling to get dinner sorted early, so we can head out to the fireworks; it being 420 years since that rogue Guy Fawkes was discovered beneath the House of Lords with 36 barrels of gunpowder… 🔥
America has no cents?
Nope, so 420 means s/t completely different to us.💨
😂 My 420 days are long over, Rob. I ate way too much space cake in Amsterdam as a wayward teenager and lived to regret it.
https://www.theverge.com/news/814168/xai-grok-ani-employee-biometric-data
These stories are getting more wild by the day. Elon musk using employees biometric data to make a ai girlfriend. Also kim karshian blames ai for failing her law exam.
Oh my, maybe the formerly know “Prince” Andrew, now Lord Mountbottom, can partake in testing, along with other undisclosed members of the frat boys that are insulated from public exposure … Elon may already know many and value their input
*waving*
Like Chucky….
I’m Baaackkkk!!
Did ya miss me? *snirtle*
2.5 weeks in beautiful China, travelling solo as an old grey-haired fat Western lady.
Got a little tired of ‘ all by yourself?’ where is your family? They allowed this?
not with an organised tour group? WOW You are sooo brave…
*meh*
Half the fun, is figuring things out for yourself without a kindy teacher herding you along like 8 yr olds on a school trip..
From gob-smacking hi-tech (Blade Runner for real, I even saw an aircar buzzing between skyscrapers) to the ancient “old towns” and colour, colour everywhere… and very sore feet, back, shoulders etc … *sigh* Too old physically for much of this unfortunately.. And cheap.. spent more on the tourist high-priced mandatory “gift shopping” in the last few hours than all before.
Highlights – my favourite was Xi’an and the Terracotta Army exhibit, the city of Xi’an just oozed ancient history with every brick and tile, and with various cultures in the gardens, being the capital city for 2,000 years through 11 (or was it 12 or 13?) Dynasties, and looks it, and well-maintained from the Old City Wall to the ancient massive tree-lined avenues. And the landscape through the Karst mountain formations on the way to Chongquing on the HSR? … wow.. and the pandas..could have just sat there watching them play all day..
Worst experience? – using (or trying to use) a ‘squatty potty’ on a moving train… Twice.
Methinx even the men probably have trouble with those… but “needs must” as they say LOL
Oh well.. after that time of mega-moster airports, mega-monster train-stations with their own boarding gates, and wall-to-wall people, and 14-hour flights, and umpteen security checkpoints etc (one railway station I named “little Palestine” for the sheer number of checkpoints and scanning passports etc – it was such a delight to catch my little inter-city shuttle after landing at Sydney, having to walk through the slackest & quickest security gate ever…and across the tarmac into a little 20-seater .. only thing missing was a sleepy kangaroo or two sunning themselves … hahahaha
Then sleeping for 12-hours straight in my own bed!
Don’t worry, will get all doomy again when I catch up …
Welcome back, Rain! And thank you for filling us in on your adventures. ♥
Yes, I missed you. I love reading about your trip. Especially since I will never get to China. Good for you! I agree about the joys of going solo despite some challenges.