Many thanks to my October donor, Cassandra, who suggests this month listening daily to Adagio for Strings (one of the west’s most famous concert pieces) while you read the C & E posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQsgE0L450 (If you use the Brave browser it can play in the background even when not on that page, plus no ads!).
“Government shutdown could cost US economy billions of dollars a week, analysts say…
““This isn’t the way to have a discussion, shutting down the government and lowering the GDP,” Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, told the CNBC financial news network. “We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America.”“
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/02/government-shutdown-cost-economy-billions
“Donald Trump threatens permanent spending cuts as US shutdown continues…
“US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday defended the White House’s threats of permanent spending cuts and mass firings of federal workers. “I don’t think it’s unreasonable for the president to use all the levers,” he said.”
https://www.ft.com/content/001b332d-8017-4d13-be8b-887e88d2c363
“Dollar Doubts Are Showing Up in the Corporate Bond Market…
“For all the enthusiasm still fueling US equities, many investors have been hedging their exposure to the dollar. The same dynamic is showing up in America’s corporate bond market, where dollar retrenchment is becoming more visible and even Corporate America is hedging its home team.”
“America’s private credit binge echoes China’s shadow banking.
“With dry powder piling up and bankruptcies rising, the US risks the turmoil Beijing only narrowly contained… U.S. private credit has attracted a tsunami of cash, despite diminishing opportunities. Since the 2008 financial crisis, over 500 new private credit funds have been established…”
https://asia.nikkei.com/opinion/america-s-private-credit-binge-echoes-china-s-shadow-banking
“US banks expect victory in capital requirements as Trump regulators revamp rules.
“As President Donald Trump’s regulators revamp bank rules, big lenders expect their capital requirements could fall, in a stunning victory for the industry which faced a big hike under former President Joe Biden, according to senior industry executives.”
“US inflation is materially UNDERSTATED:
“The True Living Cost (TLC), an alternate inflation metric focusing on essential household expenses, SURGED 30% faster than the CPI in 2001-2023. TLC shows medical costs nearly TRIPLED during this time while CPI says they only doubled.”
[Global Markets Investor]
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1973455374192668696
“Americans’ trust in media hits an all-time low, with Republican confidence now in single digits.
“In its latest annual survey on trust in media, Gallup found that only 28 percent of the American public expresses a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in “newspapers, television and radio to report the news fully, accurately and fairly.””
“US farmers hit by trade war to get ‘substantial’ aid: Treasury chief…
“”You should expect some news on Tuesday on substantial support for our farmers, especially the soybean farmers,” Bessent told CNBC early Thursday. The Wall Street Journal also reported Thursday that President Donald Trump is mulling $10 billion or more in aid to American farmers as the trade tensions take a toll.”
“Investors could face a bonfire night surprise on Trump tariffs…
“If they are deemed to be illegal, there is a chance the White House may have to repay billions of dollars of tariff revenue to businesses, creating trade and fiscal chaos… But if the April 2 tariffs are judged lawful, some legal scholars think that Trump’s powers will then dramatically expand, enabling him to impose taxes or capital controls in a unilateral, almost monarchical, manner without asking Congress.”
https://www.ft.com/content/440a0adf-f327-4fd5-a315-c35e9bb0791e
“America’s looming electricity crisis is Trump’s Achilles’ heel…
“The country is sitting on a neglected pre-modern grid that cannot meet surging power demand for data centres, cryptocurrencies, the reshoring of semiconductor plants and the proclaimed revival of the American industrial base. Nor can it meet the needs for air conditioning through hotter and more humid summers.”
“Canada’s debt time bomb…
“As a society, we are in danger of insolvency. A sharp drop in employment—potentially triggered by tariffs, rising mortgage costs, a slowdown in lending, or sudden price shocks—could easily push overleveraged families into bankruptcy, with destabilizing consequences for the entire economy.”
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/canadas-debt-time-bomb
“Japan’s markets gird for leadership vote with stocks, bonds on edge…
“The race to head the Liberal Democratic Party has centred on household relief versus fiscal discipline. Overhanging those deliberations is the question of whether Japanese shares can chart new highs and calm will return to its volatile bond market.”
“The UK Needs to Break Out of Its Debt Doom Loop…
“Britain’s public finances are no longer just impaired; they’re in danger of breaking down. Growth is weak, debt-servicing costs are climbing and the tax burden keeps rising on the same narrow base. Investors have started to call it a “debt doom loop.””
“Fresh strikes held in France amid continuing political void.
“French trade unions are leading a day of strikes as they try to maintain pressure on the new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, to rethink budget cuts and consider a form of wealth tax on the super-rich. Lecornu has still not formed a new government…”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/02/france-strikes-unions-new-pm
“Torture weapons are being used on Europe’s streets to put down protests…
“In Europe — and beyond — security forces are maintaining order through often brutal tactics, which utilise weapons and other instruments that have no purpose apart from inflicting excessive pain.”
https://euobserver.com/eu-and-the-world/ar6c6cda93
“Euro zone manufacturing returned to contraction in September, PMI shows…
“Euro zone manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction in September as new orders fell at their fastest rate in six months, signaling the recovery in the region’s industrial sector was fragile, a survey showed on Wednesday.”
“UN human rights expert slams EU chemical deregulation push.
“Efforts by Brussels to dilute the bloc’s chemical laws are undermining the European Union’s credibility as a “global leader in green policy and the rule of law,” a top U.N. human rights official has warned in a letter shared with POLITICO.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/un-human-rights-expert-slams-eu-chemical-deregulation-push/
“Europe in ‘most dangerous situation’ since second world war, Danish PM warns.
“Europe is in its “most difficult and dangerous situation” since the end of the second world war, Denmark’s prime minister has said at an EU summit dedicated to advancing the continent’s battle readiness by the end of the decade.”
“French troops arrest captain of Russian ‘shadow fleet’ oil tanker feared to be behind Denmark drone incursions.
“French police have arrested the captain and first officer of a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker that was seized off the French coast, as they investigate whether it was involved in last week’s drone incursions in Denmark.”
“Russia ‘using deadly new missile upgrade’ to bypass Ukraine’s Patriot air defence systems…
“Ukraine’s missile interception rate has dropped sharply in recent months, from 37 per cent in August to just 6 per cent in September, the FT reported, citing Ukrainian Air Force data.”
“US to provide intel to guide Ukrainian long-range missile attacks on Russia.
“The US will provide Ukraine with new intelligence to help guide long-range missile and drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, a move that marks an escalation in Washington’s role in the war.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1417049a-5a1c-4fcb-8370-2341b164b2a1
“Myanmar’s military says it has recaptured a key central town from ethnic rebels.
“The recapture of Kyaukme, about 115 kilometers (70 miles) northeast of Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city, is the latest setback suffered by the ethnic militias fighting the army.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/myanmar-bangkok-china-telegram-aung-san-suu-kyi-b2838218.html
“Rupee Inches Toward Record Low As Dollar Pressure Persists.
“The indian rupee is hovering just above a record low at 88.76 against the US dollar, as foreign investors pull money from Indian stocks and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) steps in to steady the currency.”
https://finimize.com/content/rupee-inches-toward-record-low-as-dollar-pressure-persists
“Why has Pakistan-administered Kashmir erupted in protest again?
“An uneasy calm hangs over Pakistan-administered Kashmir as the region marked the fourth day of a complete shutdown on Thursday, with at least 15 people killed – including three police officers – during violent clashes between protesters and security forces.”
“Iran’s central bank plans major currency intervention as rial tanks.
“The Iranian rial has depreciated approximately 26% against the US dollar over the past two months, with the exchange rate climbing from around IRR930,000 in early August to IRR1,175,000 by October 2, following a succession of negative headlines…”
“Three killed in Christian area of Syria amid sectarian tension, election controversy…
“Syria is currently in the middle of a controversial parliamentary selection process in which 140 members of parliament will be chosen by local committees, while 70 will be directly appointed by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/three-killed-christian-area-syria-amid-sectarian-tension
“Israeli settlers burn Palestinian home, fell olive trees in West Bank.
“Israeli forces and settlers have carried out a series of raids and attacks across the occupied West Bank, with soldiers shooting several residents in the Far’a refugee camp and settlers vandalising Palestinian homes and farmland near Nablus and Hebron…”
“What remains of Gaza? Israel has reduced large swaths of the territory to rubble. It will take decades and tens of billions of dollars to repair the damage…
“The latest UN assessment, based on satellite imagery published on August 6, shows that 78 per cent of buildings in the Gaza Strip have been damaged and more than half of them completely destroyed.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6f1978a4-e6e8-4374-b92b-d74a3f66b9a4
“Rebuilding Khartoum Will Cost Billions That Sudan Doesn’t Have…
“The devastation is widespread: The city’s national museum has been looted, while the egg-shaped Corinthia hotel — the main landmark of modern Khartoum — has repeatedly been hit. Prominent mosques, an Ottoman-era palace and historic bridges have been plundered or destroyed.”
“Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come.
“…the war in Sudan has become a harbinger of what more wars could look like in the future: messy and seemingly insoluble, drawing in ever more rival outside powers, each with its own irreconcilable interests. Once they start, these kinds of wars are very difficult to end…”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/sudan/sudans-war-shape-things-come
“China Outpaces US on Rail Links to Africa Minerals.
“Xi Jinping’s government signed a deal with Zambia and Tanzania for the $1.4 billion revamp of a railway connecting the central African copper belt to an Indian Ocean port, revitalizing an iconic line that Mao Zedong’s China financed and helped build in the 1970s.”
“‘It’s all dead now… nothing will grow’: Fish and hippos dissolve in polluted acid river [Zambia]…
“On Feb 18 a dam holding back a lake of toxic waste broke at the Sino-Metals Leach Zambia mine after heavy rains. The partial collapse sent a wave of acidic sludge sweeping hundreds of yards across farmland and into Zambia’s river system… Residents allege that smaller spills had been taking place for years at different mines and smelting plants.”
“France’s nuclear giant says 1,500 tons of uranium stashed at seized Niger site.
“Orano warns it will seek legal action or compensation if the uranium is sold or confiscated without authorisation. The World Bank’s arbitration body ordered Niger to halt trading uranium from the seized mine.”
“Morocco protest leaders demand government dismissal after deadly unrest…
“The demand came after fresh demonstrations demanding reforms to the health and education sectors took place across the kingdom on Thursday, a sixth consecutive day of largely peaceful protests pockmarked with spates of violence.”
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20251003-morocco-protest-leaders-government
“‘We are the last hope’: Gen Z Madagascar vows to fight on until president resigns…
“Activists, who are part of Gen Z Madagascar, a leaderless group of young people, are demanding the resignation of the president; the dissolution of parliament; the replacement of constitutional court judges and electoral commission members…”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/02/gen-z-madagascar-vows-protest-until-president-resigns
“War on drugs: Trump declares US is now in ‘armed conflict’ with Caribbean cartels…
“The designation appears to claim extraordinary wartime powers to justify a series of strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea, which have drawn legal scrutiny and allegations that the administration and defense officials committed extrajudicial murder.”
“Venezuela slams presence of US F-35 fighter planes spotted off coast…
“Venezuelan Defence Minister General Vladimir Padrino said on Thursday that at least five F-35 fighter jets had been detected, in what he describes as a threat that “US imperialism has dared to bring close to the Venezuelan coast”.”
“Investors embrace ‘cat’ bonds.
“Facing a growing price tag from intensifying hurricanes, wildfires and severe storms, the insurance industry has turned increasingly to whizzy financial tools that give investors an opportunity to bet on where climate disasters will materialise — and to profit when they don’t.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d52bd835-8f29-43c4-8a39-b3dd7155e709
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
It looks increasingly likely that there is going to be a major global economic dislocation before the end of 2026. I’m not sure any economic theory is worth much, especially as they were all formed in a period of growth where we no longer live, but there seem to be cycles of group psychology that sit on top of general trends set by resources and demographics. There is a theory that housing crashes occur about every eighteen years and it’s proponents think next year wlll be far worse than 2008. Another theory is that it takes about three generations for societal disruptions like inclusive wars, revolutions and economic depressions to be collectively forgotten, so they are likely to happen again. The 2008 financial crises might have reset the timing, but maybe not. In which case we are still due. Of course limits to growth will overrides all else eventually anyway.
On top of that I think it’s likely that oil supplies will noticeably start to decline some time next year. OPEC plus will have used up all its spare capacity, Russia may have to be shutting in wells and there are really very few new projects in the pipeline, hence oil operators, service companies and EPCM firms reducing staff; and only to be expected after a decades long decline in discoveries. It may not be an issue initially because demand could be falling faster but people are going to notice fairly quickly and panic in financial markets might follow.
Escalating social unrest will accompany the economic fall and there are many countries that may be heading towards failed states, or close enough to make no difference. For example today there are Morocco, Madagascar, Zambia, Sudan, Venezuela, Syria but on other days Ecuador, Thailand, Sri Lanka, South Sudan, Nepal, Mali, Iraq, Lebanon etc. The Foreign Affairs article on Sudan sums things up well.
The economic decline now, whether gradual or in a series of steps down, means any consideration of climate change will be given lip service at best but more and more just outright denial, especially as autocratic demagogues come to power, either through election by increasingly desperate entitled voters or through coups, either violent or soft.
I find this bloke’s AI generated music awful to the point of retching but the reportage and interviews are still pretty good, although he increasingly flounders around to find anything hopeful to say. This is about the accelerating climate change.
https://www.ecoshock.org/2025/10/accelerated-warming-experts-freak-out.html
Thanks, George. I’ll reply properly anon but I’m just piggybacking on your comment to say that if I go mysteriously quiet it’s because Storm Amy has knocked my power out.
We’ll have gusts up to 80mph where I am. I fear it is going to be a long, stormy autumn/winter.
George, you have touched on quite a few of our converging crises there.
If you look at our multi-faceted predicament from every angle, which is an unusual thing to do in a system that rewards specialisation, you can only really conclude that global collapse is inevitable and not far off.
The global technological industrial growth economy is running on fumes and its global filling station is running dry and filing for bankruptcy.
Leaf, right. The financial system is clearly overheating as it keeps stretching in its attempt to maintain economic growth. When does it reach its “elastic limit”?
“This has never happened before:
“S&P 500: all-time high
US Home Prices: all-time high
Bitcoin: all-time high
Gold: all-time high
Money Supply: all-time high
“Public Debt: A RECORD $37.5 TRILLION
US labor market: in a RECESSION.”
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1973900849517625608
“US inflation is materially UNDERSTATED:
“The True Living Cost (TLC), an alternate inflation metric focusing on essential household expenses, SURGED 30% faster than the CPI in 2001-2023. TLC shows medical costs nearly TRIPLED during this time while CPI says they only doubled.”
Because the more you over-estimate real or inflation-adjusted GDP, the more real inflation is under-estimated by definition. And it’s plain to anyone that its overestimated. PCE (unlike CPI) doesn’t even survey businesses, just estimates prices indirectly instead of surveying the actual prices. They aren’t lying, they are honestly using their own standard of truth. Some might remark that the standard is flawed but that’s just their opinion. And even if they’re right, it ain’t fraud if it’s flawed!
Jupiviv, here in the UK Truflation suggests over 35% cumulative inflation since the pandemic; about 10% more than official government figures. The former definitely accords more with my personal experience.
Truflation is just a more comprehensive analysis, even factoring in shrinkflation, which has been pretty staggering. Products like chocolate bars and cereal boxes are almost comical in the flagrant way they have shrunk.
I think it’s time to share once again the brilliant 3 minute film, A Brief Disagreement, by Steve Cutts. (Complete with the perfect classical music score):
https://youtu.be/9x7FGbW3IVc
Thanks, Cassandra. Steve Cutts’ cartoons hit the nail on the head.
Hello Pan,
Ah yes, Niger, uranium, and France.
With the nationalization of the SOMAIR mine by the Nigerien junta, and the seizure of some 1,500 tons of stored uranium, France has lost its grip on what was essentially a picked-over bone. The stockpile represents a market value of at most three hundred million dollars – energetically, enough for about a month and a half of electricity in the French nuclear fleet. Symbolically, however, the loss is far greater: it marks the end of an era in which Paris could draw without hesitation from its former colonies.
In its heyday during the 1990s, Niger supplied over 4,000 tons of uranium annually, nearly a third of French imports. By 2022 that had dropped to 1,970 tons – less than 10% of the world market, and roughly a tenth of French demand. For Orano, which had been incurring losses on Niger’s production for years, it now represents only a marginal share of total output. Profitability in Niger had long been under pressure: ore grades had fallen below 0.1%, and production costs per pound were structurally above the global market price.
The real volumes now come from Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia. While Orano clings to arbitration cases at the World Bank and talks of compensation, China has built up a substantial uranium portfolio in Africa. In Namibia, the world’s second-largest producer, the major mines – Husab and Rossing – are fully controlled by Chinese state-owned companies. In Malawi, Chinese consortia took over the Kayelekera mine after Australian investors pulled out. And in Niger itself, a Chinese project has been on standby for years, ready to be revived the moment the junta gives the green light.
For Beijing, profitability is secondary; supply security for its own nuclear plants is what matters. Anyone who lays out China’s energy balance will be shocked at the sheer madness of its overproduction of energy, and the staggering subsidies the state pours into it – whether for coal mines or nuclear plants. But for now, nobody talks about that.
Thanks, Zip. I hadn’t realised that Niger’s uranium supply was so far past-peak. Re Canada, I recall Paul Beckwith did an interesting video about Elliot Lake, the former “Uranium Capital of the World”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3aZVoJduEk
“The US will provide Ukraine with new intelligence to help guide long-range missile and drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, a move that marks an escalation in Washington’s role in the war.”
From a Russian perspective, how is this different than the US attacking Russian infrastructure? US missiles, US targeting and US trained operatives. It would seem to me a very dangerous escalation. When are Russian missiles going to start heading for US infrastructure? Or maybe major cyber attacks on US infrastructure?
Holy fuck is Hegseth ever a clown.
What a cringe loser.
“The US will provide Ukraine with new intelligence to help guide long-range missile and drone strikes…”
For now, no Tomahawks, though.
“Billionaires realizing the public has gone from “they should pay their fair share of taxes!” – to – “we should literally fucking eat them” – Pyryn
Once again, the rich should hide their wealth & appear to be poor. Collateral damage might not be pleasant.