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“The Myth of Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Crumbling…
“The consensus was that consumption of oil, natural gas and coal would peak before the end of this decade… The end of the fossil-fuel era was within reach. But that tenet, key to achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050, wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.”
“Global Current Account Balances Widen.
“Global current account balances—the surpluses and deficits arising from cross-border trade, income flows, and current transfers—are widening again after narrowing in recent years. They fell to a post-pandemic low of 3 percent of world GDP in 2023, but widened to 3.6 percent last year… several major economies have seen their surpluses or deficits expand, contributing to the growing divergence in current account balances.”
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/picture-this-global-balances-widen
“U.S.–China Trade Crashes to 19-Year Low.
“The world’s two biggest economies are pulling apart faster than expected. Q2 2025 data shows U.S. imports from China hitting just $64.8 billion – the weakest since 2006 – while exports collapsed to $24.2 billion, marking the most dramatic trade breakdown in nearly two decades.”
https://thetradable.com/global-economy/uschina-trade-crashes-to-19year-low-ig–a
“US says China spreads ‘false’ World War Two narratives to pressure Taiwan…
“China is intentionally mischaracterising World War Two-era documents to put pressure on and isolate Taiwan given those agreements made no determination of the island’s ultimate political status, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei said.”
“China warns UK and US after USS Higgins and HMS Richmond sail through Taiwan Strait.
“Chinese naval and air forces were ordered to monitor and warn the two ships, the HMS Richmond and the USS Higgins, as they made their way through the 110-mile (180km) passage between the island and the Chinese mainland on Friday.”
“China’s economy slumps in August, casts doubt on growth target.
“China’s factory output and retail sales reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to fend off a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.”
“China’s property investment falls 12.9% y/y in January-August.
“Property investment in China fell 12.9% in the first eight months of the year from the same period last year, following a 12% drop in the January-to-July period, official data showed on Monday. Property sales by floor area declined 4.7% year-on-year, compared with a 4.0% drop in the first seven months.”
“Fed set to cut interest rates as Jay Powell faces dissent over slowing economy.
“A divided Federal Reserve is set to make its first interest rate cut this year, as it faces fierce pressure from Donald Trump and a split over whether the weakening jobs market can counter the inflationary risk posed by the US president’s tariffs.”
https://www.ft.com/content/af41b26c-f3fc-4a20-a744-23fccadd0c27
“Shocking stat of the day:
“The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. History says rate cuts with stocks at record highs will lead to even more record highs 12 months from now. Asset owners will party and the wealth gap will widen. Especially as Core CPI inflation is back above 3%.”
[Kobeissi Letter]
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1966925596660809886
“NZ services PMI slumps to 47.5, 18th month contraction.
“New Zealand’s services sector deteriorated further in August, with BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index slipping from 48.9 to 47.5, well below the long-run average of 52.9. The reading also marks the 18th consecutive month of contraction. Both Activity/Sales (46.2) and New Orders/Business (47.8) weakened, suggesting demand remains fragile.”
“Food and drink inflation could climb to 5.7% by the end of the year thanks to cost pressures on manufacturers “trickling down” to supermarket shelves, a leading industry body has warned. [UK]
“The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said current prices were “steeper than anything in recent decades”. The group – whose members make a quarter of all food and drink sold in the UK – increased its inflation outlook as a result of growing cost pressures.”
“Clashes in London as 110,000 join far-right rally against immigration.
“More than 110,000 people protesting against immigration have marched through the United Kingdom’s capital, London, in one of the country’s biggest right-wing demonstrations, with some protesters clashing with the police and wounding at least 26 officers.”
“Bank of England urged to slow bond-selling plan to help cut record UK borrowing costs.
“Andrew Bailey has been urged by former Bank of England policymakers to ease pressure on the government’s borrowing costs by cutting back its bond-selling plans. In a crunch week for the economy, four influential ex-members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) said a change in course was needed.”
“French companies’ borrowing costs fall below government’s as debt fears intensify.
“Borrowing costs for a number of French companies have fallen below those of their government, as investors’ worries over the country’s political crisis and growing debt pile upset the typical relationship between sovereign and corporate bonds.”
https://www.ft.com/content/be40c638-77ce-4986-9274-fa157d3a0ffb
“Fitch downgrades France’s credit rating amid political crisis.
“France’s credit downgrade deepens political and economic woes, piling pressure on French President Emmanuel Macron and new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Fitch Ratings lowered France’s credit score on Friday, citing mounting political instability and uncertainty over how the government will rein in ballooning public finances.”
“Far right set to make electoral gains in Germany’s most populous state.
“Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to make strong gains in local elections, underlining the far-right party’s advance in Germany’s western industrial heartland in the first electoral test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition government.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b61bfcf0-ea68-4717-b323-748fa496efee
“Moldova facing dark winter as energy crisis bites.
“A silence hangs over Ion Ignat’s normally noisy factory in Chetrosu, Moldova, with his 50 workers fretting about their future, reports AFP. Normally, all the machines are running. Now all is dead silent, said the owner of the plant that makes bricks and concrete products about a half an hour’s drive from the capital Chisinau.”
https://www.daily-sun.com/printversion/details/655161/budget2025-2026
“Romania summons Russian ambassador after drone breaches country’s airspace.
“Romania summoned the Russian ambassador to Bucharest on Sunday after a drone was observed breaching the country’s airspace on its way to strike targets in Ukraine on Saturday. Poland also scrambled fighter jets last week to shoot down a number of Russian drones that had entered its airspace.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250914-romania-summons-russian-ambassador-over-drone-threat
“US President Donald Trump has said he is ready to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, but only if Nato countries meet certain conditions which include stopping buying Russian oil.
“In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said he was “ready to do major sanctions on Russia” once Nato nations had “agreed, and started, to do the same thing”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zxp1y5lwo
“Rising Nato military spending to cause huge spike in emissions, report warns.
“A planned expansion of military spending by Nato countries could generate an additional 1,320m tonnes of planet-heating pollution over the next decade – on a par with the annual greenhouse gas emissions generated by Brazil, the fifth largest emitter in the world, according to a new report.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/14/nato-military-spending-emissions
“North Korea slams ‘dangerous’ drills by US, Japan, South Korea.
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s influential sister has condemned upcoming joint military exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea, calling them “dangerous” and a “reckless show of strength”.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/14/north-korea-slams-dangerous-drills-by-us-japan-south-korea
“The Gen Z revolution spreading in Asia…
“Nepal, where the median age is 25, below the Asian average of 32, embodies a growing regional trend where elder leaders of Oli’s generation clash with disenfranchised, ambitious and often unemployed young people who are fed up with politics as usual and a lack of opportunities.”
https://www.ft.com/content/31ac1faf-9348-4ee1-a129-4be6f9dd002d
“Students among 18 killed in Myanmar strike on Rakhine schools…
“Khaing Thukha, spokesperson for the Arakan Army (AA) that controls the area, told The Associated Press late on Friday that a jet fighter dropped two bombs on Pyinnyar Pan Khinn and A Myin Thit Private High School in the Thayet Thapin village in Kyauktaw township.”
“Attacks On Schools In Conflict Zones On Sharp Rise…
“Last year has seen a sharp rise in attacks on schools in conflict zones around the world, resulting in the death, abduction and trauma of thousands of teachers and students. Attacks on such civilian objects as schools also dramatically increased the vulnerability of children.”
“Pakistan accuse India of breaking spirit of sportsmanship with handshake snub.
“India captain Suryakumar Yadav defended his team’s decision not to shake hands with Pakistan’s players after their seven-wicket victory in the Asia Cup… Tensions between both countries have flared in the last six months with cross-border clashes in Pahalgam resulting in the deaths of 26 people in May.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/09/14/pakistan-accuse-india-sportsmanship-handshake-snub/
“Iraq’s psychological wounds: A generation scarred by conflict…
“Years of conflict, unrest, and political instability have left Iraqis facing deep psychological scars. Depression, schizophrenia, and other mental health disorders are increasingly common. Studies estimate that more than one in five Iraqis suffer from mental illness…”
https://shafaq.com/en/Report/Iraq-s-psychological-wounds-A-generation-scarred-by-conflict
“Tens of thousands protest in Ankara against legal crackdown on Turkish opposition…
“The court decision on Monday whether to invalidate the 2023 congress of the Republican People’s party (CHP) over alleged procedural irregularities could reshape the party, rattle financial markets and influence the timing of a general election set for 2028. The court could also delay the ruling.”
“Israeli army carries out its latest ground incursion in southern Syria.
“Israeli troops have carried out a ground operation in Syria’s southeastern Deraa province, Syria’s state news agency reported, the latest incursion in the neighbouring country as it also continues air raids against Damascus in various locations.”
“Medics in southern Gaza sound alarm over wave of newly displaced Palestinians.
“Doctors and medical staff at the largest hospital still functioning in Gaza say they will be overwhelmed by a wave of new wounded and sick patients if hundreds of thousands of Palestinians flee the north of the devastated territory in the face of an intensifying Israeli offensive.”
“Sudan war: Torture, rape and forced starvation as paramilitaries suffocate besieged city…
“In shelters which have seen little to no humanitarian aid, camp directors hand us lists showing requests for clean water, medical supplies and food. Even the trademark white United Nations tarp is scarce.”
“Weary Malawians look to this week’s presidential election as nation grapples with an economic crisis.
“Malawi is holding a presidential election this week as one of Africa’s poorer countries grapples with an economic crisis, food and fuel shortages — and memories of a vote six years ago that was canceled and a redo ordered because of widespread irregularities.”
“Cuba’s Most Important Power Plant to Close for Six Months…
“The problem is what will happen in the meantime. The National Electric System is already reporting generation deficits approaching 2,000 MW at peak demand hours, and the company has warned that this Saturday 55% of the country will experience simultaneous blackouts in the late afternoon and evening.”
https://havanatimes.org/features/cubas-most-important-power-plant-to-close-for-six-months/
“Venezuela Says U.S. Boarding of Tuna Vessel “Hostile”.
“In a statement read by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, the government stated that the tuna vessel was boarded in an illegal and hostile manner, and that it was crewed by nine “humble” fishermen and was “harmless.””
https://www.marinelink.com/news/venezuela-says-us-boarding-tuna-vessel-529993
“China mulls converting coal-fired power plants to nuclear facilities.
“Driven by decarbonisation goals and land scarcity, this “Coal to Nuclear” (C2N) strategy proposes leveraging retiring plants’ grid and water access for compact, meltdown-proof reactors, potentially offering a faster path to clean energy than building nuclear sites from scratch.”
“UK and US firms announce deals in new ‘golden age’ of nuclear power ahead of Trump visit.
“UK and US firms announce five new commercial deals, including for a new nuclear power plant in Hartlepool, before President Trump arrives in the UK on Tuesday. They will be underpinned by a refreshed US-UK agreement to speed up the notoriously slow building process in both countries.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Hello Pan
Some thoughts about ‘peak demand’
The Myth of ‘Peak Demand’
In the debate about peak demand, reality is systematically kept at a distance. Supply and demand are treated as if they were separate, independent forces. In the spreadsheets demand rises, falls, or peaks — and supply magically adjusts itself. The implicit suggestion is always the same: there will always be enough supply, at an affordable price.
Reality tells a different story:
– existing fields decline structurally at an average of 6% per year;
– new discoveries are small, costly, and often technically or politically risky;
– marginal supply (tar sands, shale, deepwater) only comes online at high prices;
– geopolitics and war make infrastructure fragile and volumes unreliable;
– investments in new projects are being cut back under shareholder pressure.
The industry itself reflects this. The new mantra is everywhere: “slimming down, shrinking, and technological innovation.” Tens of thousands of jobs are disappearing in the upstream, midstream, and supply-chain sectors.
Exxon, Chevron and others have set their threshold around $30 a barrel — anything more expensive simply will not be drilled or completed.
On paper that produces healthy balance sheets; in practice it means the number of commercially viable fields is being drastically scaled back. The result is not peak demand, but an emerging supply scarcity with all its consequences. Supply is shrinking structurally, not because the reservoirs are empty, but because the majors — and essentially nobody else — are willing to take risks on razor-thin margins with ever-lengthening payback times.
And yet policymakers continue to ignore this. They even prefer to talk about peak demand, as if we consumers had decisive input, and because their models collapse the moment they acknowledge that supply does not bend along.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Majors-Slash-Jobs-Despite-Trumps-Fossil-Fuel-Push.html
Thanks for your thoughts on this, Zip. I remember when the oil majors’ capex productivity began to decline in earnest around 2013. A guy called Steve Kopits did a very good presentation about it.
The problem with all of these models (and to be fair to the International Energy Agency, they say that this is a snapshot of a possible future rather than a forecast) is that they are too narrow in their focus. We just don’t have the energetic/financial headroom to prop up another 25 years of demand growth, to say nothing of other encroaching limits.
Reference Nepal,
In my opinion Brian Berletic is by far the most truthful geo political analysist available to the public.
Here is what he has to say about Nepal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgZXwXIVZTk&t=143s
Curt, I don’t know much about the situation in Nepal or Brian Berletic, so I can’t helpfully comment on this but thank you for the contribution. I may not find a spare hour-and-a-half to watch it but other readers may.
My sense just skimming through the comments is that Brian is making the case that recent events there are not just an expression of domestic outrage at inequality and corruption, but have been orchestrated by the US for nefarious purposes.
This is what my ‘home made’ 🙂 energy/depletion atlas tells you about Nepal
Nepal –
Region
South Asia / Himalaya
Status
No oil or gas reserves; almost entirely dependent on imports. Large hydropower potential, but underdeveloped due to political instability and infrastructure problems.
Reserves
– Oil: none
– Gas: none
– Hydropower: theoretical >80 GW, of which only ~1.5 GW utilized
Production
– Oil: none; imports ~40 kb/d oil products (from India)
– Gas: none
– Electricity: ~1.5 GW hydro installed, seasonal → blackouts in dry periods
– Consumption: low per capita, rural areas largely reliant on biomass
R/P ratio
Not applicable.
Decline & EOR
Not applicable.
Key fields/basins
– Hydropower plants (Kali Gandaki, Kulekhani, Upper Tamakoshi)
Infrastructure
– No pipelines; all oil products delivered by tanker trucks from India
– Hydropower projects often financed by India or China
– Transmission networks poorly developed → high losses
Decommissioning
No relevant fossil legacy; hydropower plants often poorly maintained
Contractor dependency
– High: India and China crucial for hydropower investment
– Foreign development banks finance projects
Policy/regulation
– Nepal Electricity Authority (state-owned)
– Energy policy aims at hydro-export to India, but little achieved
ESG/social
– 30 million inhabitants; widespread poverty, rural reliance on wood/biomass
– Political instability slows development
Vulnerabilities
– Fully dependent on oil product imports
– Hydropower vulnerable to climate change (melting glaciers, monsoon variability)
– Geopolitically squeezed between India and China
Price exposure
– Extremely high: Indian fuel price shifts directly impact inflation
State take
– None from fossil fuels; hydropower generates little foreign exchange
WGA indicators (0/1)
Reserve decline: 1
Production decline: 1
Exploration stalled: 1
Fiscal pressure: 1
Infrastructure/political risk: 1
Total score: 5/5
Conclusion
Nepal is fully dependent on energy imports and underdeveloped hydropower. Political instability, poor infrastructure, and climate risks keep the country trapped in structural energy poverty.
Zip, that is a not dissimilar profile to Sri Lanka or Pakistan.
Ever wonder what happened in Nepal . Here is the answer — OVERSHOOT .
NEPAL
Population: 29.65 million (2024) World Bank
Area: 147,516 km²
AUSTRALIA
• Total
7,688,287 km2 (2,968,464 sq mi)[7] = 7,688 , 827 sq km
Population
• 2025 estimate 28. .65 million .
The answer my friend is blowing in the wind .
Ravi, Nepal also has only 0.0717 hectares of cultivable land per person, slightly worse than the UK which sits at 0.0897, whereas Australia has a whopping and world-leading 1.217.
I lean into Brian Berletics analysis, partly because his research is impressive — he even watches Congressional Committee meetings? and I have read his sources to double-check. And he always “follows the money”
There is more to the story though, in that the violence was so well-organised, and planned for a long time, just waiting for an opportune ‘trigger’ moment, reminded me of the Hong Kong riots.
For “democracy” and the more recent uprisings in Georgia.
I saw a stage play some years ago, a story of a family during the Hong Kong riots, which presumably started over tightened national security legislation being instituted. The young HK boy about 19 or 20, was yelling at his parents for their disinterest, or lack of support for “fighting for democracy on the streets” etc
The mother said something interesting along the lines of “almost every country in the world has similar legislation, and we are Chinese, you are Chinese, and our laws are being harmonised with the rest of China.. you young people never lived under the British Occupation and it’s crazy laws, you are so easily manipulated by slogans.. but if you think that’s a better system, leave.. we will help you in seeking it..
But back to Nepal.. this interview with an Indo-Nepalese author who was in Kathmandu during these violent days, adds extra social layers to Brian’s dry analysis of facts, figures, strategic policy documents and capital flows..
hard to find English broadcasts from countries like Nepal..so was a little excited to share it..even if I’m days late on this site 🙂
https://youtu.be/gOd59cnXdyg
Rain, an interesting titbit from the the synopsis:
“Over the past 10 years, there have been 14 prime ministers [Nepal], some lasting barely three months and none of them had done anything for the country or its citizens.”
Having a repeat of History…”We can’t help ourselves”…. Actor Jeremy Irons in the Movie, “Margin Call”
The Hidden Financial Battle Behind World War I
Financial Historian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlqfq5YmgO8
World War I wasn’t only fought in the trenches — it was fought in the banks, on balance sheets, and in the hidden corridors of money and power.
The gold standard collapsed, governments borrowed on an unprecedented scale, and ordinary citizens were persuaded to fund the war through patriotic bonds. This moment changed economic history forever, shaping the modern financial system, global crises, and the very meaning of real wealth.
In this episode of The Financial Historian, we uncover the hidden financial mistakes behind the First World War, the economic bubbles it created, and how those decisions still echo in inflation, debt, and the struggle for financial freedom today. Understanding these lessons isn’t just financial education — it’s survival.
And this one coming up looks to be a doozy…We can’t help it…after all even the “Father” sent his only “Son” to show us the way…
Thanks, Vince.
There were, unsurprisingly, energetic factors at play, too. Gail Tverberg makes the case that peak coal in the UK played a part, and Germany trying to secure access to (then) Mesopotamia’s oil was definitely a contributing factor.
It is obvious the US president has had strokes and is in bad shape physically and mentally, however we are busy pretending that this is normal and speaking truth can get you arrested.
We deservedly join the cadre of countries we have raped in oppression without the pretense of free speech.
Ebony Peat, I am aware of the rumours re Trump’s health, but sadly have no inside track. Officially, all he’s been diagnosed with is chronic venous insufficiency. 🤷♂️
Not economy or climate but environmental. I found this report about trying to use sharks to deal with a lion fish invasion rather amusing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNxuxo_eMPI
I think the effects are inline with the causes.