Special sponsor for September 2025 is [you?]. Contact me here if you fancy helping me out and spending a month atop the C&E wall of fame.
“France on brink of economic and political crisis as PM looks set to lose confidence vote.
“Francois Bayrou may be forced out of the role he has only held since December if, as expected, he loses today’s vote, a scenario that could have dire consequences for the French economy and President Emmanuel Macron.”
“Could France’s economic turmoil spark eurozone debt crisis?
“…”Yes, we should be worried. The eurozone is not stable at this point,” says Friedrich Heinemann, an economist with the ZEW Leibniz Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, even though he is “not concerned” about a new short-term debt crisis in the coming months.”
https://www.dw.com/en/could-frances-economic-turmoil-spark-eurozone-debt-crisis/a-73886339
“The bond vigilantes will keep on circling…
“With fiscal plans adrift and political turbulence, the bond markets’ patient goading will soon wear thin. Leaders may prefer to delay hard choices, but if they cannot muster the willpower to rein in spending, markets will impose it for them — swiftly, decisively and on terms no government would willingly choose.”
https://www.ft.com/content/90f22ca9-6992-4ea0-bd5b-da6f7d279cbe
“Japan’s stressed bond market, stocks brace for PM Ishiba exit reaction.
“Japan’s stressed government bond market and soaring stocks are set for more volatility on Monday after the resignation of fiscal hawk Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Yields on super-long Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have already been hovering near record highs…”
“Government’s Bank of Korea borrowing nears 150 trillion won record…
“The Bank of Korea’s temporary lending system to the government is a tool used to address short-term funding shortages that arise due to mismatches between tax revenue and fiscal expenditures during the fiscal year. This is similar to individuals opening a “minus account” (credit line loan) at commercial banks to cover funds as needed.”
https://www.chosun.com/english/market-money-en/2025/09/08/XE6BCODYAJF3JJP5ITP3X2OYD4/
“Why even an IMF bailout couldn’t save Britain now…
“There is also the political challenge of going cap-in-hand to an institution with a reputation for punishing the populations of countries it lends to. If Britain were in need of more than £67bn, the IMF’s whole lending model could be under threat.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/08/why-even-an-imf-bailout-couldnt-save-britain-now/
“Europe’s most powerful conservative vows to tear up net zero rules.
“Six years after being passed over in favour of Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president, Manfred Weber is ready to take his political revenge. The German lawmaker is now leading the charge against Ms von der Leyen’s net zero laws and wants to scrap an EU ban on petrol cars.”
“Treasury secretary says U.S. and European Union must partner to ‘collapse’ Russian economy.
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled Sunday that the U.S. is open to partnering with European countries to impose more sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil in an attempt to “collapse” the Russian economy and brushed aside concerns that the U.S. was entering a recession.”
“High in the Arctic, Norway’s Uneasy Ties With Russia Are Fraying…
“There’s “a new situation in the High North,” states Norway’s first National Security Strategy, released by the office of the prime minister in May. “Growing geopolitical competition is amplifying the strategic importance of the Arctic,” it says…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-arctic-russia-high-north-threat/
“Russia pounds Ukraine with largest air attack, hits key government building.
“Russia has hit Ukraine with the largest air attack since the war began, killing at least four people across the country and setting dozens of buildings on fire in the capital, Kyiv, including the main seat of the government, according to officials.”
“China to Reopen Bond Market To Russian Energy Firms…
“Top Chinese regulators told Russian energy executives at a late August meeting in Guangzhou that they would back plans to issue renminbi-denominated “panda bonds,” the people told FT. If finalized, this would mark the first time a Russian company has raised funds in mainland China since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine…”
“Chinese travellers mull Russia for visa-free National Day holidays…
“Online agency Tongcheng Travel said searches for Russian hotels and flights rose more than sixfold on Friday from a day earlier within an hour of Chinese media reporting that Russian President Vladimir Putin had suggested that Chinese travellers might soon be able to visit without visas.”
“Tensions rise as North Korea continues sending water into South from border dam…
“Water levels at Pilseung Bridge — the southernmost point of the demilitarized zone in Yeoncheon, Gyeonggi — rose above the one-meter (3.3-foot) threshold at 1:20 a.m. Monday, triggering an evacuation alert for river visitors, according to the Han River Flood Control Office. By 11:10 a.m., the water had reached 1.42 meters.”
“Revealed: the huge growth of Myanmar scam centres that may hold 100,000 trafficked people…
“Set against rugged mountains south of the town of Myawaddy, KK Park, with its on-site hospital, restaurants, bank and neat lines of villas with manicured lawns, looks more like the campus of a Silicon Valley tech company than what is really is: the frontline of a multibillion-dollar criminal fraud industry fuelled by human trafficking and brutal violence.”
“Iran FM Araghchi warns Europe against ‘reckless’ approach to nuclear deal.
“Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused Britain, France and Germany of pursuing a “reckless” strategy on his country’s nuclear programme, warning that their alignment with Washington will only diminish Europe’s global standing.”
“UAE’s ‘unprecedented’ warning forces Israel to reconsider West Bank plans.
“Israel faced an unprecedented warning from the UAE over potential West Bank annexation, with envoy Lana Nusseibeh signaling it would endanger the Abraham Accords; behind-the-scenes alerts had preceded the public statement, catching Israel off guard.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hym2g3y5ex
“Israeli airport hit by drone from Yemen’s Houthis.
“A drone launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen hit Ramon airport in southern Israel, the Israeli military said on Sunday, prompting aviation authorities to halt flights and close airspace around the terminal.”
https://www.ft.com/content/59318158-67e1-4ba2-a604-3b2e045747f6
“Egypt-Israel Tensions Rise Over Attack on Gaza City.
“Israel’s plan to force Palestinians to flee to southern Gaza ahead of an offensive in the northern part of the enclave has raised tensions with neighboring Egypt, which is concerned that Israel will try to push Gazans into its territory.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/07/world/middleeast/egypt-israel-gaza-city.html
“South Africa’s economy collapsing one domino at a time…
“The country’s economy has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1% for the past fifteen years and is now beginning to feel the consequences, with a looming financial crisis and an unemployment disaster.”
https://dailyinvestor.com/south-africa/100821/south-africas-economy-collapsing-one-domino-at-a-time/
“Terrorists killed at least 63 people in northeastern Nigeria while storming a town whose residents had been returned from a displacement camp, the state governor said.
“The Friday night attack struck the town of Darul Jamal, which hosts a military base on the Nigeria-Cameroon border… Residents said the attack began around 8:30pm local time (1930 GMT), when dozens of fighters arrived on motorbikes, firing assault rifles and torching homes.”
https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/346d56cf3393
“Blackout in parts of Benin City, Edo State capital, has entered the second week.
“The blackout was occasioned by the shutdown of Ossiomo Power plant in Ologbo, Ikpoba-Okha Local Government, due to ownership tussle between Ossiomo Power and its Chinese partners, Jiangsu Communication Clean Energy Technology (CCETC).”
https://thenationonlineng.net/blackout-in-parts-of-benin-enters-two-weeks/
“JD Vance: I don’t care if strike on Venezuela drug boat is war crime.
“JD Vance has weighed in on the debate between jurists, academics and officials on the legality of last week’s unprecedented missile strike on a Venezuelan drug gang’s boat: He doesn’t “give a s—”. The US vice-president delivered his verdict on X…”
“Maduro vows to defend Venezuela’s sovereignty as tensions rise with US.
“President Nicolás Maduro has vowed to defend Venezuela’s sovereignty as tensions rise over the deployment of U.S. warships in the Caribbean. He urged President Donald Trump to engage in dialogue to avoid conflict.”
“Huge crowds rally for Brazil’s Bolsonaro ahead of verdict in coup trial.
“Brazilians have marked the country’s Independence Day with duelling rallies in support of and against former President Jair Bolsonaro, days before the conclusion of his trial on charges of plotting a coup following his election defeat in 2022.”
“‘Tip of the methane iceberg’: 130,000 coal boreholes must be audited after toxic leaks in Queensland, experts say…
“The federal government has previously published estimates that there are about 130,000 abandoned coal exploration bores in Queensland’s Surat and Bowen coal basins where the quality of decommissioning to seal the holes is unknown.”
“‘Bowie bonds’ a $6.7b hit as Wall Street chases returns.
“Investors including Blackstone, Carlyle and Michigan’s state pension fund have raised at least $US4.4 billion ($6.7 billion) of debt backed by songs this year, a record amount that brings once-niche “Bowie bonds” into the mainstream as Wall Street hunts for yield.”
“Two activists have gone on hunger strike outside the offices of Google DeepMind in London and Anthropic in the US, calling on companies to pause the development of advanced artificial intelligence.
“The protest is aimed at drawing attention to what they describe as the dangerous race to build powerful AI systems.”
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
A few notes on the spreadsheet madness of the UK and its nuclear/ waste “future.”
The same applies exponentially to France, by the way, but that’s another story.
The British government is once again counting on nuclear power as the pillar of its energy future. On spreadsheets it all looks neat: stable output, thousands of jobs, and a watertight plan for waste disposal. Reality is different. Radioactive waste remains dangerous for ten thousand years, and the UK’s plan to bury it in a geological disposal facility in Cumbria stretches well beyond 2150. Estimated cost: £40 to £70 billion. The Treasury has already rated the project “unachievable.”
Yet the government pushes on. Sellafield, already one of the most hazardous nuclear sites in the world, is overflowing with high-level waste. The idea is that a geological dump will solve the problem—if only a willing community can be found. As if an Excel table could neutralize resistance, time, and social acceptance.
Here lies the fundamental flaw. The entire operation—from concrete mixers to ventilation systems, from excavators to security infrastructure—runs on fossil fuels. According to Rystad, economically recoverable oil and gas reserves will be essentially depleted by around 2040, with only a narrow margin left. Even with optimistic assumptions, the horizon stretches just a few decades further. After that, the diesel stream needed to keep waste management alive will simply dry up.
The plans draw a straight line to 2150, but the energy base stops around 2040. The question nobody dares to ask is simple: how long do you really think diesel will last?
The spreadsheet society assumes that time, money, and fuel are endless. But once the energy foundation collapses, we are left with half-finished tunnels, corroding barrels, and a radioactive legacy no budget can sustain.
It is the ultimate illusion with a disastrous ending: counting in centuries, while the very fuel needed for “decommissioning” runs out within decades—down a literally dead-end road.
Don’t look up!!!
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/The-Nuclear-Waste-Problem-Haunting-UK-Energy-Expansion.html
Poor, old energy-constrained UK, thrashing around, looking for a solution that doesn’t exist.
That nuclear waste will be fighting for space with all the CO2 we’re planning on burying. We have a problem with “regular” waste, too. Scotland’s solution for that? Send it to England:
“Up to 100 truckloads of Scotland’s waste will be moved each day to England once a landfill ban comes in at the end of the year, the BBC’s Disclosure has been told.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0r1de24pdgo
C&E weekly brainteaser. Try to identify all the layers of irony in the following chain of events:
1> Trump fires the “biased” BLS director for publishing a disastrous jobs report last month.
2> Mainstream media quaveringly heralds the destruction of democracy by Trump, personally, for the 100875th time.
3> This month, the new BLS director who’s supposed to be Trump’s personal boytoy, whose appointment had violated the sanctity of high office, publishes a report even more disastrous than last month’s. Obviously not a peep from Trump, while anti-Trumpists get to enjoy a dopamine rush. Show’s over, peasant scum. Now go back to your filthy little hovels and earn your daily bread. Chop chop!
On a not entirely unrelated note, the rate cut marathon in fact began 3Q ’24, when they were being (correctly) heralded as the beginning of yet another bull market. The post-covid strategy of pursuing high interest rate policies across the board while adjusting rates as needed to keep asset inflation cruising along has absolutely nothing whatever to do with Trump, Biden or the tooth fairy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPfsUlFxhrI
“This month, the new BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] director who’s supposed to be Trump’s personal boytoy…”
Jupiviv, this makes it sound like he has “a head for business and a bod for sin,” to quote Melanie Griffith in Working Girl, but the pictures aren’t giving me that. Sounds an intolerant sort:
“E.J. Antoni, Donald Trump’s nominee to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has a history of posting homophobic and misogynist comments on social media…”
https://www.advocate.com/politics/bls-nominee-homophobic-sexist-comments
Well of course he does. Be surprised if he didn’t.
But this is good news (for now),
Goldman Sachs Warns of 1.9 Million Bpd Oil Glut by 2026
By Irina Slav – Sep 08, 2025, 4:27 AM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-of-19-Million-Bpd-Oil-Glut-by-2026.amp.html
“Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, driven by OPEC+ supply increases and higher output from the Americas.
The bank forecasts Brent crude could fall to $53–$56 per barrel next year, despite current levels above $66.
OECD crude inventories remain below average, but bearish sentiment dominates market forecasts.
Goldman Sachs expects the global oil market to swing into a surplus of 1.9 million barrels daily next year as a result of OPEC+’s output cut unwinding and producers in North and South America also ramping up production.
“While a full 1.65 mb/d unwind is plausible, we assume the group will leverage its flexibility to pause quota increases from January 2026 under our assumption that OECD commercial stocks start rising noticeably in 2025 Q4,” the investment bank’s commodity analysts said in a note on Sunday, following the news that OPEC+ will continue adding barrels to its collective output after years of restraining supply.
Based on this expectation of a glut of close to 2 million barrels daily, Goldman Sachs predicted oil will next year fall to between $53 and $56 per barrel, allowing, however, for higher prices by saying “Risks to our 2025-2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside.”
Based on these projections means I can keep my Nissan Sentra for a few more years and curtail my purchase of the electric bike I’ve been eyeing to replace the four wheeler.
https://aipasbike.com/products/aipas-m2-pro-xterrain-ebike?country=US¤cy=USD&gad_campaignid=22262249720&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAp9PLVMG_ysnJvEXdoq23N0PyalsI&gclid=CjwKCAjw2brFBhBOEiwAVJX5GMYABgBL1e344phm7HdP3IUNX2ViFuEvDtVygUfXBGYFrU-YeSS7TRoCP2oQAvD_BwE&m2_of&utm_campaign=pmax_m1&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_medium=cpc_pmax&utm_source=gg_ad&variant=47891215221012
When I’m at the supermarket old guys boomers ride these…
Hi VPK,
Not sure where you live, but you are better off with an ebike conversion kit, instead of buying an outright ebike. My husband is an ebike repair mechanic, most of the companies make ebikes which are very difficult to fix. And who knows if they will still be around in 2-5 years. So getting parts or info on how to service is non existent.
A conversion kit allows you to pick out a regular bike you like, or use one you already have. They are more repairable too. The bike shop my husband works for will do the conversion, but not sure if you have a bike shop near you with that skill set?
https://www.nomadcyclespdx.com/shop/motors
I mean that is if you are serious about getting an e-bike and live in an area that has decent infrastructure for one.
The Islay climate is pretty inimical to cycling, especially in autumn and winter, with strong winds and driving rain barrelling in off the N Atlantic.
I’ll be sticking with my nine-year-old, entry-level, Labrador-smelling, petrol Kia until the damn thing falls apart and/or spares are no longer available.
It’s the wind that will get ya. I live in the pacific northwest, riding in the rain is actually pretty nice once you learn how to handle it. But wind is another story!
So glad I mentioned it here, was not considering those points….thank you for the link! Only will do that once the cars are off the road, too dangerous to ride; most drivers are distracted by their personal devices. Plenty of “Dennis the Menace” scooters buzzing along without any regard to safety; mostly young teenie boppers.
For now, keeping in shape to trek 10 miles or three hours walking a day, just in case only option to shuffle along …a nice talent (ability) to maintain.
One other consideration is how to charge the electric bike if the grid goes kaput? So complicated it all is…
I think it will be some years before cars are not the main source of transport. I suspect as the costs surrounding vehicle ownership continues to rise, only then will you see a bigger push for bicycle infrastructure.
This comment is neither economic related nor climate related. But it is environmental related. I am posting this comment because it is something new and interesting to worry about………..if you live near an ocean shore line.
I saw a report on you tube today that rabies has recently become established among the seal population of South Africa.
How long will it take for the disease to spread northwards along the coast line to other seal populations? But an even more interesting question now is how long will it take before the virus infects its first killer whale?
If I were thke Coen brothers I would jump on this certian block buster.
Thank you for the heads-up on that, Curt. It is news to me:
“For the first time ever, rabies is spreading through the Cape fur seal population in South Africa, sparking fears of a far-reaching marine pandemic.”
https://animalsurvival.org/marine-conservation/seals-rabies-outbreak/
It reminds me of the horror movie from the 70’s. Rabid.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabid_(1977_film)