Huge thanks to this month’s anonymous sponsor, who wishes me to lead with this public notice she spotted: “If special arrangements need to be made to accommodate residents with disabilities in order for them to participate in the public hearing, including a Spanish or Karen interpreter, please call…”
“Political and economic volatility wipes $320bn off global profits…
““After years of cheap money and relative geopolitical stability, a wave of macro shifts — from trade tensions to global conflicts — now means that government policy and global events are having a greater impact on value and profits than in many decades”, said Mats Persson, EY-Parthenon UK’s macro and geostrategy leader.”
https://www.ft.com/content/34b387e4-ea54-419c-a4b6-b6f9f72cd9d0
“World’s largest copper producer says Trump’s tariffs are causing ‘anxiety’.
“The world’s largest copper producer says US tariffs are causing anxiety as the $250bn industry awaits details of proposed levies on the metal less than two weeks before they are due to kick in.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5a5503fa-a518-4ab8-bfbd-d6ea8bff7f68
“Climate crisis causing food price spikes around the world, scientists say.
“South Korean cabbage, Australian lettuce, Japanese rice, Brazilian coffee and Ghanaian cocoa are among the many foods that have been hit by price hikes following extreme climate events since 2022, a team of international scientists has found.”
“Top central banker defends climate work after US pushback.
“A senior central banker has defended supervisors’ work on climate change after attacks from the US, and warned officials had previously “completely underestimated” the risks rising temperatures pose to the financial system.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c00c13a0-492d-40dd-91e7-61d8a1910f6b
“‘A disaster for all of us’: US scientists describe impact of Trump cuts…
“Donald Trump’s assault on science – but particularly climate science – has led to unprecedented funding cuts and staff layoffs across federally funded agencies and programs, threatening to derail research tackling the most pressing issues facing Americans and humanity more broadly.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/20/science-trump-funding-cuts-layoffs
“Federal cuts leave Los Angeles County health system in crisis.
“Los Angeles County’s health system, which is responsible for the care of the region’s poorest, is careening toward a financial crisis because of cuts from a presidential administration and Republican-led Congress looking to drastically slash the size of government.”
“Trump’s funding cut stalls water projects, increasing risks for millions…
“The Trump administration’s decision to slash nearly all U.S. foreign aid has left dozens of water and sanitation projects half-finished across the globe, creating new hazards for some of the people they were designed to benefit, Reuters has found.”
“Millions will die from infections as UK aid budget is cut…
“In the Fleming Fund, we have had an effective surveillance tool to track resistant infections, supporting experts working in hundreds of laboratories in countries in Africa and Asia at the greatest danger from AMR. It is the perfect example of the UK aid budget being used to protect us all from health crises that respect no borders…”
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/millions-infections-aid-budget-cuts-776vp5gc5
“UK listed companies have issued a record level of warnings over geopolitical tensions as they face higher trade costs under the Trump administration.
“The number of profit warnings issued by public companies rose by 20 per cent to 59 in the second quarter of 2025, according to research from EY…”
“US nukes deployed to England for first time in over a decade.
“For the first time since at least 2008, U.S. nuclear weapons have reportedly returned to British soil, with multiple sources indicating that a number of B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs were transferred this week to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk.”
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/us-nukes-deployed-to-england-for-first-time-in-over-a-decade/
“Smoke bombs and bottles thrown at police during migrant hotel protest [UK]…
“The protest was the third outside the hotel in the last week following the arrest of an Ethiopian migrant who was charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl.”
“Asylum Suspended: Greece Begins Migrant Detentions…
“In an exclusive interview with the Daily Mail, Thanos Plevris articulated Greece’s firm stance: “The Greeks, like the rest of Europe, want to help real refugees, but we will not be taken for fools. It is the end of the fairy tale that those coming to Greece…”
https://greekreporter.com/2025/07/21/asylum-suspended-greece-begins-migrant-detentions/
“Dutch charities unable to meet soaring demand for summer help as child poverty grows…
“According to the Dutch Red Cross, the poverty crisis in the Netherlands is worsening. “Poverty is deepening,” Red Cross director Harm Goossens warned two months ago. The Nationaal Fonds Kinderhulp has seen the same trend.”
“Tariffs an unwelcome shock to a German economy already battling an exports slowdown.
“Since Monday, Europe’s largest economy has been bracing itself for the biggest enkeltrick of all time: the incalculable cost of US tariffs of 30 per cent threatened on European Union products by US president Donald Trump, grandson of a German emigrant.”
“EU Sanctions Against India’s Nayara ‘Unjustified,’ Rosneft Says.
“Newly imposed European sanctions against India’s Nayara Energy refinery are “unjustified and illegal,” according to Russian oil major Rosneft PJSC that co-owns the facility.”
“China Threatens Response to EU Sanctions on Banks, Firms…
“It’s the first time that Chinese banks have been added to the European sanctions list since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The sanctioned banks are Heihe Rural Commercial Bank Co. and Heilongjiang Suifenhe Rural Commercial Bank Co., according to a statement from the European Council.”
“The scam that turned China’s housing slump into a cash machine…
“As home prices collapse, a new wave of speculators is exploiting the growing discrepancy between low sales prices and high official valuations. By using desperate sellers and proxy borrowers, they extract cash from oversized loans — a practice that distorts market data, sidelines genuine homebuyers and adds a dangerous layer of bad debt to banks’ books.”
“China land sales in smaller cities hit lowest level in a decade…
““The actual slump could be much worse than the reported data suggest,” said Nomura’s Lu, who estimated that the “lion’s share” of land purchases was by local government financing vehicles — state-owned companies that borrow to invest in real estate.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b3e73b22-2497-4eba-a609-54a9b0098be1
“‘Japanese First’ party emerges as election force with tough immigration talk.
“The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan’s upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with warnings of a “silent invasion” of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending.”
“Thai army exposes Cambodia for misusing demining footage to smear Thai troops…
“Royal Thai Army spokesperson Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree issued a public statement on Sunday (July 20), refuting allegations made by Cambodian official Heng Ratana, Director-General of the Cambodian Mine Action Authority, who claimed that Thai troops had planted new landmines along the Thai-Cambodian border.”
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/asean/40052793
“The U.S. shouldn’t ignore the starving Rohingya of Myanmar…
“In Myanmar’s troubled Rakhine state, a new horror is unfolding largely unobserved. The long-persecuted Rohingya have been caught in the crossfire of the country’s ongoing civil war, and now they are being deliberately starved.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/20/myanmar-rohingya-bangladesh-yangon-civil-war/
“Bangladeshis linked to Hasina regime appear to have made UK property transactions in past year…
“Investigators in Dhaka have been sifting through allegations that powerful and politically connected figures under the previous regime exploited senior positions to loot state contracts and the banking system, channelling millions into UK property.”
“‘Ticking water bomb’: China starts work on world’s largest dam near India’s border…
“With an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan (around \$167.8 billion), the dam is set to dwarf the Three Gorges Dam and drastically alter river flows into India and Bangladesh. Though Beijing officially announced the project only now, Chellaney pointed out that satellite images indicate construction may have begun soon after parliamentary approval in 2021.”
“Homes burning after mass pillaging and 30,000 trapped in besieged city – as Syria’s fragile ceasefire holds…
“About 30,000 mostly Druze people are thought to be trapped inside the city and surrounding towns, with no electricity, little internet and dwindling supplies of food and water… at the time of writing, there were still no agreed safe corridors to bring out those pinned inside.”
“More than 90 dead in UN aid truck massacre in Gaza.
“The UN World Food Programme said its convoy carrying food “encountered massive crowds of hungry civilians which came under gunfire”, soon after it crossed the border from Israel. At least 93 died at the scene in northern Gaza with dozens more injured…”
“The Houthis shatter European pretensions to naval power.
“…the steepest costs could be yet to come. “The Houthis have given everybody a playbook,” explains Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian at Campbell University in North Carolina. “You can get disproportionate results with very little resources.””
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/07/20/the-houthis-shatter-european-pretensions-to-naval-power
“How gold has become the lifeblood of Sudan’s war economy.
“…an estimated 100 kg of gold now vanishes each day across Sudan’s borders — approximately 60 tonnes since April 2023. This illicit flow is not incidental leakage, it is the engineered financial architecture of a seemingly unstoppable war machine.”
https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2608705
“Why the Nile dam crisis demands action and accountability…
“Egypt depends on the Nile for 97 percent of its freshwater needs. For more than a century, its water rights were guaranteed by treaties and its downstream position. But the GERD, located just a few kilometers from the Sudanese border, threatens to disrupt that balance. In Cairo, the concern is existential.”
https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2608804
“The Global War On Public Holidays Is Far Too Lazy…
“Worries about fiscal sustainability and tepid economic growth are enticing governments to embrace a simple but controversial step: reduce the number of public holidays so employees produce more.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
“Until we get to net zero emissions extreme weather will only get worse, but it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.” I wonder how much lunch would cost if it had to be planted and harvested using manual labour, transported by electric artics and fertilised with ammonium nitrate made from electrolysing water.
Renewables have prolonged and intensified ecological overshoot and allowed continued economic growth in some countries even as they have seen falls in net per capita energy from fossil fuels, but one thing they have not done is stop, or even delay, anthropogenic warming. In fact greenhouse gas concentrations would probably now be lower had there been no renewables growth because of their impact on land use and overall increased environmental degradation, and the increased consumption of goods allowed by higher availability of total energy. It could be argued that the renewables lower energy costs and therefore make some fossil fuels too expensive too produce, but if so it would more likely only cause a delay, as fossil fuels are more attractive in many ways, and EORI is the real limit to production.The high demand on fossil fuels for renewables construction and installation might raise emissions, but probably if the fossil fuels weren’t used for that they would be for something else as part of BAU.
Renewables have not prevented one barrel of oil or one cubic foot of gas from being developed or produced. The much hyped reduction in US coal use has mostly been because of geology (i.e. exhaustion of the easiest produced reserves) and rising domestic shale gas production while global markets have not yet been fully developed.
There have been studies showing we are following the Limits to Growth standard run or maybe the one with double resources. There was another run with “high” technology, which showed an extension of BAU but then a significantly steeper decline, ending in about the same state as the other collapse cases. If we are not at a high tech state now I don’t know what it would look like, and renewables are part of that. I doubt the LtG team really foresaw the growth of IT or development of materials science to anywhere like the extent we have seen. Therefore maybe we aren’t following the standard run so much as the high tech run combined with something else (e.g. higher pollution or higher impact from that pollution, a Liebig law type impact on resources, social complexity boundaries etc.), which limits how far BAU can be extended but still leads to a faster collapse.
Are you not familiar with the Aerosol Masking Effect/ Global Dimming?
I am familiar enough with it to know it has no relevance to what I wrote above.
Have you watched the documentary The Dimming?
I have. It’s dumb as shit.
That is all very well said indeed, George.
As remarkably prescient as the LtG team were, they also did not factor in the financial constraints you allude to in your first paragraph. Monetary and credit crises are a good bet to trigger a sudden collapse under the slow, grinding duress of physical resource limits and climate change.
David Korowicz’s “Trade Off” is always worth a read for those curious to explore that possibility; Liebig gets a few mentions:
“Because of Liebig’s law of the minimum it only takes one critical failure to stop production and delivery. Thus, for a trade collapse or a wider system collapse, one does not need everything to fail, only certain things. The impact can then cascade across businesses, economies and society.”
https://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf
Follow up on a comment I made last week:
Simply put, under current circumstances less energy and resources need to be distributed to the hundreds of millions of people who directly or indirectly contribute to the production of solar panels, than would need to be if those same people were part of an exclusively coal/fossil fuel generation based system. This calculus might be a bit harsh or even inhumane, but it’s elegant and it works (for now).
I’m not aware of any studies comparing the respective value chains in detail. For example, median wage rates in the coal mining industry versus, say, manganese categorised by region and development status. Also, an analysis of intermediate production and services which are mostly in what is called “the informal economy” and their relationship to the “formal” supply chain for each sector.
This is a theory requiring evidence but like I said the data on wage differentials and the role of the informal economy across different mining sectors would be hard to find. It’s a very specific and difficult topic. A bit of googling around yielded only tangential results like this World Bank paper:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099101723140622516/pdf/P17516105e95da0de0a34c0dd670e6f75cf.pdf
It provides a bit of a clue as to how the economic differential I mentioned might play out:
As one expert put it, manufacturing lithium-ion batteries is “mind-blowingly complex.” In
the short term, with its vast challenges and lack of competitive manufacturing capacity, it would be
very difficult for the DRC to suddenly attempt to manufacture one of the world’s most complex
products. Although the DRC has cobalt, this only amounts to limited cost reduction in marketing and
transport, and compared to nickel and graphite, cobalt remains a small part of the battery
manufacturing equation. For example, for an NMC 811 battery, a 10 percent change in cobalt price
corresponds to only a 0.4 percent change in production cost. It is therefore illogical that the DRC
should seek to spend its scarce resources trying to produce complete lithium-ion batteries simply
because it possesses a cobalt advantage.
In other words, the renewables supply chain comprises low value, primary and intermediary inputs scattered across the globe leading up to the sophisticated manufacturing hubs and – last but not definitely not least – the suburbanite “climate action” enthusiasts. The complexity of the supply chain as a whole acts as a wage deflation mechanism for the majority of the points of production, that cannot be leveraged for a higher share of the value.
Fossil fuels have a more “straightforward” supply chain which might provide relatively more leverage both to workers and to the producing countries themselves, at least under certain conditions. This might also explain why the sustained presence and use of NATO forces in the Middle East is necessary, whereas the DRC makes do with “aid” and NGOs.
Jupiviv, thank you. Those are not subtleties I have deeply pondered. What you say makes sense, intuitively.
Re your final para, I wonder if we will ever see NATO or US “boots on the ground” in defence of mineral deposits, as opposed to fossil fuel reserves. It does seem unlikely but The US has certainly been more predatory in its approach to them of late; I’m thinking of Greenland, Ukraine and Congo:
“The deal …prioritizes America’s access to minerals over the well-being of Congolese citizens. Historically, Congo’s mineral wealth has enriched elites and foreign powers while leaving its people impoverished and vulnerable. The new agreement could entrench existing inequalities and inflame tensions further.”
https://theconversation.com/congo-and-critical-minerals-what-are-the-costs-of-americas-peace-260567
Food and water aid down, weaponry investment up, up, up.
Water wars up.
Migration up.
Nationalism up.
Gold up.
Greenhouse gasses up.
Extinction up.
Planet Earth’s current ecosystem: down. And soon to be out.
And just like Icarus, believing that our technology can keep triumphing over physical limits, we go up. Until suddenly we don’t.
https://moneywise.com/news/struggling-town-may-have-to-turn-to-drastic-measures-to-offset-a-13m-deficit
Edmounds washington money problems
Heather, plenty of our local authorities are in deep, financial trouble and seeking to put up council taxes to compensate. There’s this clever workaround, too:
“Voters in rural England are being hit with a “local stealth tax” which has seen parish and town council levies quadruple overnight. Across the country, householders are facing huge increases in the amount parishes are charging because cash-strapped district councils are stopping funding services they have run for years.
“This means parish councils are forced to step in and provide these services, which include vital amenities such as public toilets and parks. But while the amount that districts can increase council tax is capped, there is no cap for parish councils, meaning some areas have seen eye-watering increases.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/07/21/councils-quietly-raising-tax-more-than-300pc/
https://progressive.org/latest/the-samson-option-israels-plan-to-nuke-its-opponents-dilawar-20240624/
Israel Samsom option is part of the state’s option not sure if many people know about it like hanibal option to.
“A previous report from the FAS describes a key component of Israel’s nuclear doctrine as “the Samson Option,” a reference to the biblical figure Samson, who killed himself and his enemies by collapsing the pillars of the temple in which they all stood. The Samson Option similarly invokes murder-suicide, threatening any force that successfully defeats Israel’s conventional military with nuclear retaliation.”
Doesn’t sound good.
I doubt about the Samson option . Why ?
1. Israel has never done a test . All nations that have the bomb show this to the world . India , Pakistan , NK . My assessment is that it is a ” nothing burger ” . All hat no cattle .
2 . Who verified they have a weapon ? Yeah — the tail — USA .
3 . Where is the delivery system ? Airplanes ? Are we in 1945 ?
4. What about degradation ?
Makes me go — hmmm .
I found this passage stand out and put it out here
The Price of Ignorance Is Brutal: Predictions for 2025–2050
From climate collapse to economic upheaval, the next few decades won’t be kind. ItsovershootDec 29, 2024
https://predicament.substack.com/p/the-price-of-ignorance-is-brutal
So, what now? How do you live knowing what’s ahead?
“First, don’t feel bad about the end of modern civilization. It’s been a disaster for the planet and for most of humanity. It was not sustainable to begin with and was always destined to end. Yes, we’ve achieved material wealth and longer lifespans in secure societies, like animals in a zoo, where survival needs are met, but it hasn’t brought true happiness, because it’s not how we’re meant to live.
Instead, you should feel a sense of relief, the human zoo is collapsing, and we can finally be freed from our cages, and begin our journey back to our origins and to reality.” from the above article link
I’m not too sure about the last paragraph. Life without antibiotics, vaccines and other “safety nets”,too many to mention, will be a bumpy, hazardous journey. Maybe, as I read somewhere before, we humans were meant to live short, brutal live. If so, I dodged a bullet and won the lottery in a one shot deal given out randomly, a royal flush at the card table, never to be dealt again.
Vince, I love that opening quote from Haruki Murakami; perhaps a corollary of Buddha’s truth that life is “dukkha”: “Everyone, deep in their hearts, is waiting for the end of the world to come.”
And what he says about our self-domestication and the dissatisfying nature of our, for some, gilded cage resonates deeply.
https://youtu.be/AG7uaBEsQWc?si=0snU8W-vdlgEO4ax
Massive wave of corporate collapse exposed by the fed bank but no we do not want to deal with it
The idea justifying Fewer holidays echoes the sign they’ve designed to herald entrance into the MAGAZA Strip Maul: “Arbeit macht frei”. (As suggested by our Nasty Party’s fear-mongering Furor).
Rob, re the Gaza strip, it is at once hard and yet not at all hard to believe that such things are happening.
Whenever I talk politics, it’s about stupid voters. 77 million voted for tariffs that are taxing those same voters with increased prices, but maybe they aren’t so stupid. What’s stupid is the rest of the 8 billion that are being financially harmed by the effects of tariffs on their countries. It’s sad that 8 billion willfully ignorant can’t agree to deal with the 77 million that are happily harming them with the most beautiful word, tariffs. I’ve got a list that would stop this shit in it’s tracks but I won’t share. It’s time for this species to learn to think critically. The down side is that any action would harm 330 million not just those that deserve it.
Whoa! Wait! Stop! Maybe all the 330 million deserve it.
This should be fun. An old couple just lost their Medicaid. They get a bill from a nursing home where Grandma & Grandpa, who just lost their Medicaid, are receiving care. The bill must be paid now or Gma & Gpa will be evicted. Will the 77 million cover the expense?