Huge thanks to this month’s anonymous sponsor, who wishes me to lead with this public notice she spotted: “If special arrangements need to be made to accommodate residents with disabilities in order for them to participate in the public hearing, including a Spanish or Karen interpreter, please call…”
“Is America Breaking the Global Economy?
“…Simply put, Washington has shaken the very foundations of the global order, and there is no trusted conductor to guide countries and companies through the complicated transition to whatever is coming next. The list of uncertainties is long and daunting.”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-breaking-global-economy
“Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico…
“In an escalation of a trade war that has angered U.S. allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum that were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-announces-30-tariffs-eu-2025-07-12/
“The outlook for crude demand is set to worsen due to US President Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on trading partners and the prospect of a global trade war…
“Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc, said “The outlook for crude oil prices appears bleak to me” and “Prices are simply not justified”.”
“US recession risk soars as Trump tariffs hammer households.
“A slowdown in real consumer spending, which had been growing steadily between 2022 and 2024 but flatlined in December, is a key warning sign, Mr Zandi said. In May, real consumer spending fell… “That is signalling real stress because the American consumer drives the train and right now they’re AWOL,” Mr Zandi said.”
“Mortgage Delinquencies Are Exploding: What Smart Investors See Coming…
“…early delinquencies are rising faster than any other type of consumer credit. The stress is real, it’s coming on early, and it’s going faster than most investors think… this isn’t just about high interest rates or inflation fatigue; it’s about behavioral collapse. The U.S. consumer is no longer just stretched. They’re snapping.”
“Trump’s housing revolution threatens another mortgage meltdown…
““I am giving very serious consideration to taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 21. The two GSEs have a combined net worth of almost $161bn. Selling a portion of these shares could rival the $25.6bn Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO) as the biggest listing in history. But there are big potential problems.”
“Andrew Bailey warns banks against issuing their own stablecoins…
“The governor of the Bank of England has warned the world’s largest investment banks against issuing their own stablecoins, putting him on a collision course with the Trump administration’s backing of crypto assets.”
“Britain is slipping closer towards a devastating debt spiral…
“At 4.6pc, the yield on UK 10-year government bonds – gilts – is the highest out of all the advanced economies bar New Zealand and Iceland… Yes, higher than Greece, higher than Italy and higher than all the other one-time fiscal basket-cases collectively known during Europe’s sovereign debt crisis 15 years ago…”
“Petrol stations are running out of fuel after the collapse of one of Britain’s biggest oil refineries cut off vital supplies.
“A financial crisis at the Lindsey Oil Refinery, owned by Prax Group, has unleashed chaos across a string of forecourts near the plant in Lincolnshire, some of which have been unable to secure any supplies for more than a week.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/12/petrol-stations-run-dry-oil-refinery-collapse/
“Netherlands rations electricity to ease power grid stresses…
“Although the bottlenecks in the Netherlands are particularly acute, analysts say it is a harbinger of what is likely to occur in other EU countries, as the speed of electrification increases to meet the bloc’s ambitious decarbonisation targets.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9c7560ec-a220-4150-a35e-a79db70c0c07
“Violent clashes erupt between far-right groups and migrants in Spanish town…
“Videos posted on social media showed men dressed in clothes bearing far-right symbols and migrants carrying Moroccan flags hurling objects at each other in Saturday night’s violence, which followed several days of lower intensity unrest.”
“Italy and Greece sound the alarm over Libya. But allies aren’t rushing to help…
“Migrant flows from Libya are spiking again, at a time Rome is increasingly concerned about Russia’s growing influence in the unstable North African nation, wielded through arms supplies and a potential new naval base in the northeastern port of Tobruk.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-greece-sound-alarm-over-libya-allies-arent-rushing-to-help/
“Europe’s freedom faces greatest ‘threat’ since WW2, says Macron…
“In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said “we are living in a pivotal moment” due to complex geopolitics. Macron called for France’s defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdez5e212dzo
“Senators tout Russia sanctions bill as ‘sledgehammer’ for Trump to end war in Ukraine…
“The legislation, which would allow the president to levy a 500% tariff on imports from countries that purchase Russian uranium, gas and oil, has gained momentum in the Senate as Trump has signaled he will escalate US action against Russia.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/13/politics/russia-sanctions-bill-trump-senators-bipartisan
“Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
“United States President Donald Trump has said he will send Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine as his administration signals growing disillusionment with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to negotiate an end to Moscow’s invasion.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/14/trump-says-us-will-send-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine
“Moscow Blames Sanctions for Russia-UN Food Deal Collapse.
“Russia said Saturday that its agreement with the United Nations to facilitate exports of Russian food and fertilizers had collapsed due to Western sanctions over Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine.”
“Kim’s missile men hone craft of killing on scorched earth of Ukraine…
“Experts believe Pyongyang’s army poses a greater threat to South Korea and the US troops stationed there than ever before, having honed the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, developed drone warfare capabilities and accelerated modern arms production with help from President Putin’s top scientists.”
“US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan.
“The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies in the Indo-Pacific.”
https://www.ft.com/content/41e272e4-5b25-47ee-807c-2b57c1316fe4
“Hundreds flee to Thailand as Myanmar ethnic fighters strike military bases.
“The clashes broke out late Saturday when fighters from the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) launched attacks on junta-controlled bases in Karen State, Thai Examiner reported Sunday.”
“Security forces on Tuesday killed 10 suspected terrorists during an exchange of fire in the restive Balochistan province of Pakistan, a statement from the military’s media wing said…
“The terrorists were linked to armed attacks on security forces and civilians, including the planting of improvised explosive devices on the Gwadar-Hoshab (M-8) road.”
https://www.daily-sun.com/post/659450
“How Azerbaijan defies Russia and Iran in Eurasia’s new order…
“Once bound by history to Iran and Russia, Azerbaijan has been actively reconfiguring relationships with its neighbours in a bid to stake a claim as a major player in Eurasia – even at the cost of ratcheting up diplomatic friction with its former colonial rulers.”
“At least 30 killed in sectarian clashes in Syria…
“Scores of people were also injured in the violence between Bedouin Sunni tribes and fighters from the Druze religious minority in the city of Sweida… Fighting between different minority groups has escalated since the collapse of the Assad regime in December.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgmwp70pwmyo
“Gaza civil defence says Israeli strikes kill 43 as truce talks deadlocked…
“Hamas wants the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, but a Palestinian source with knowledge of the talks said Israel had presented plans to maintain troops in more than 40 percent of the territory.”
“Search ends for missing Eternity C crew as Red Sea sinks deeper into crisis…
“According to AIS data, daily commercial transits through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait — a critical maritime chokepoint — have plunged from 79 ships per day in late 2023 to just 32–35 vessels in recent days. With fears escalating and no clear path to security, shipowners continue to reroute traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.”
https://splash247.com/search-ends-for-missing-eternity-c-crew-as-red-sea-sinks-deeper-into-crisis/
“RSF storms cattle market and prison in ‘death trap’ Sudanese city.
“The Sudanese paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) stormed the besieged city of el-Fasher on Friday… It was the first time RSF fighters had entered the city in large numbers since the siege of el-Fasher – an ongoing battle for control of the western Darfur city – began 15 months ago.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn7d84k3r43o
“Haiti gang violence spurs concerns for regional destabilization.
“The United Nations warned on Friday that intensifying gang violence in Haiti not only threatens national stability but could also destabilize the wider Caribbean region, following a devastating surge in killings, abductions, and forced displacement across the country.”
https://www.jurist.org/news/2025/07/haiti-gang-violence-spurs-concerns-for-regional-destabilization/
“An AI-generated band got 1m plays on Spotify. Now music insiders say listeners should be warned.
“They went viral, amassing more than 1m streams on Spotify in a matter of weeks, but it later emerged that hot new band the Velvet Sundown were AI-generated – right down to their music, promotional images and backstory.”
“The Dangers of AI in the Courtroom.
“Garrett and Rudin note a troubling trend toward “black box” AI, which they define as AI models that are too complex for ordinary people to understand… the use of black box AI has increased rapidly in criminal cases, including the use of facial recognition technology, risk assessments of the chances that criminals will reoffend, and predictive policing…”
https://www.theregreview.org/2025/07/10/vasudevarao-the-dangers-of-ai-in-a-courtroom/
“ChatGPT is pushing people towards mania, psychosis and death – and OpenAI doesn’t know how to stop it…
“The Stanford study found that the dangers involved with using AI bots for this purpose arise from their tendency to agree with users… This sycophancy is an issue that OpenAI acknowledged in a May blog post, which detailed how the latest ChatGPT had become “overly supportive but disingenuous”, leading to the chatbot “validating doubts, fueling anger, urging impulsive decisions, or reinforcing negative emotions”.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-ai-therapy-chatbot-psychosis-mental-health-b2784454.html
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a “Climate” thread.
I think the further humans get from our original environment of evolutionary adaption (living as fairly egalitarian and emancipated tribes in the fecund savannahs of Africa) the worse it is for our mental equilibrium. So agriculture, then industry, then capitalism, then a rapid acceleration with IT, smartphones, social media and now AI, and both our intelligence and mental stability are (not so) gradually getting clobbered.
100%, George!
Боже мой
George, that’s it. We are drowning in self-created, crazy-making complexity. I envy people like gardeners and artists, who at least have a chance of being calm and present in their working lives.
Felt that
This blockbuster show of nature’s revenge does not feature any of us individually or collectively in the production, not even as extras or bit players.
We are in the audience, observing what happens when an ultrasocial bipedal ape stumbles upon the unrestrainable uses of fire.
There are little production tricks that have us thinking we are in the cast, but of course this is way, way bigger than any of us, and the plot is getting tedious and absurd.
Warning: the last act is now dragging on and on, but it promises no happy ending. Tickets, it should be pointed out, though, have always been free, and some of us have been comped decent seats.
“We are in the audience, observing what happens when an ultrasocial bipedal ape stumbles upon the unrestrainable uses of fire.”
Martin, right – the crazy simian supernova on the verge of snuffing itself out.
Actually the courts here in the us are banning ai for use since they are making up cases and garbage for court its not realiable. Also there have been some lawyers losing there jobs over it.
Heather, AI is Joseph Tainter’s diminishing marginal returns on social complexity in action. I mean, how much value is it really adding to society relative to the energy it consumes?
Re, making up cases, I remember this rather alarming instance:
“OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT falsely accused an American law professor by including him in a generated list of legal scholars who had sexually harassed someone, citing a non-existent The Washington Post report…
“In another instance, ChatGPT falsely claimed a mayor in Australia had been imprisoned for bribery.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-sexual-harassment-law-professor-b2315160.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/11/trump-200percent-pharma-tariffs-threaten-to-push-up-drug-prices-hit-margins.html
Drugs and sanctions not good along with budget cuts. Down goes us healthcare system!
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/good-news-vermont-engineer-restores-payphones-for-community-use-243145797524
Payphones are back again
Heather, on Islay we still have a few of the iconic red phone boxes, designed by Sir Giles Gilbert Scott, the architect responsible for Liverpool Cathedral.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_telephone_box
VPK, thanks for the link the other day to documentary about Judi Bari. I will watch it. I really admire eco warriors like her who gave it their all. I am such a dud in comparison. Sadly, their efforts won’t turn it around.
I concur, Cassandra, it matters not in saving any longer with the onslaught of ecocide we all here acknowledge. Ecosystems will not be able to adapt regardless. Actually, the segment in which show Ms. Bari exasperated in her speech of going through the judicial and governmental loops to protect the last remaining vestige of Old Growth Ancient forest just shows what “show trails” they are in what Martin labeled fossil fuel powered corportate control. Yes many eco warriors and martyrs, many unnamed.
One comes to mind was rubber trapper Chico Mendes of Brazil. Same as Judi Bari in campaigning the value of the the forest….not plantations.
Anyway, his life was taken away because of it and the destruction continues. As we have read here, the remaining rainforest will not longer be able to exist and likely perish.
Thanks for noticing the link , another short link
On This Day: December 22, 1988: The Assassination of Chico Mendes – A Voice for the Amazon Silenced
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/J-nIUI2eYTs
Cassandra, you are streets ahead of me. Activism was not part of my journey at all, going straight from mindless consumer to startled doomer, as I did.
An excellent review of the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy by The Honest Sorcerer:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-two-energy-transitions
The killshot:
In order to show progress (even as meager as we’ve seen above), and to make investors think that these “alternative” sources of energy are somehow a viable replacement to fossil fuels (which they’re demonstrably not), a statistical slight of hand had to be used. This meant that low-carbon energy sources were accounted for the amount of fossil heat they replaced, not for the actual electricity they provided to the system. Truth to be told, the authors of the report tell us as much, although in small print at the bottom of the page (emphasis mine):
“Energy from non-fossil fuel combustible electricity generation is accounted for on their input heat requirements and non-combustible renewables on the energy content of their gross electrical output.”
….wtf is this logic? Affirmative action for renewable energy? Also puts into perspective the tendency to throw the book at fossil fuels and oil corps as externalized evils. Fossil fuels have to play an innate and crucial role in any successful and GENUINE transition out of not only fossil-fuel based civilization but the millennia-old rule of Capital itself. Renewables would be a necessary but modest supplement, and some of the current renewables infrastructure may well become hindrances.
Jupiviv, thank you for that. The Honest Sorcerer puts out some great articles.
There is no energy transition; just an energy mutation with renewables enabling further fossil fuel consumption.
https://denvergazette.com/colorado-watch/colorado-dna-scandal-retests/article_fe34adc6-0061-11f0-9188-d368b5973f34.html
A huge scandal in Colorado court system with dna testing or schanningans