This month’s sponsor is Shane Mulligan, a nonfiction editor and old Oil Drummer. Shane invites any authors on the list, published or aspiring, to connect with him to discuss their work. Reach him via southlineediting.ca/contact.
With apologies, I am needed on urgent family business down in London. I’ll be back on Saturday with a climate thread. Kali is going to be extremely kind and cover for me until then.
“US Strikes on Iran Come at Fragile Moment for the Global Economy.
““We’ll see how Tehran responds, but the attack likely puts the conflict on a escalatory path,” Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote… Bloomberg Economics sees three options for Iran to respond: Attacks on US personnel and assets in the region; Targeting regional energy infrastructure; Close the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint.”
“Iran says it reserves all options on response to ‘outrageous’ US strikes.
“Iran reserves all options to defend itself after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday on X, saying the attacks were “outrageous and will have everlasting consequences”.”
“US Navy eyes options if Iran grips [Hormuz] choke point…
“…while Iran’s ability to respond has been severely damaged, it has a robust navy and maintains operatives across the region, where the United States has more than 40,000 troops. Iran also has an array of mines that its navy could lay in the Strait of Hormuz.”
https://www.ekathimerini.com/nytimes/1273119/us-navy-eyes-options-if-iran-grips-choke-point/
“An official from Yemen’s Houthis said that the group’s response to US attacks on Iran was “only a matter of time”…
“Since late-2023, the group has launched attacks on shipping lanes and on Israel in s solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. It agreed to a ceasefire deal with the US in May.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he was worried when asked if he was concerned that the world was heading towards World War Three.
“Putin, speaking at an economic forum in St Petersburg, said there was a lot of potential for conflict in the world and that it was growing.”
“Long-time Donald Trump ally Steve Bannon who was spot-on with his prediction that the president would strike Iran on Saturday is now warning that it could spark World War III…
‘”I’m just reporting what I’m hearing from pretty good sources. The party is on,’ Bannon said on his podcast.”
“Global trade war set to resume.
“Canada unveiled new restrictions on steel imports Thursday and warned of increased duties on American metals, Japan failed to reach an agreement with the US on lowering levies, and US President Donald Trump complained that European Union negotiators had yet to offer “a fair deal…””
https://www.semafor.com/article/06/20/2025/global-trade-war-set-to-resume
“Trump’s tariffs make it harder for Fed to cut interest rates…
“The Fed policy committee is more pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth and for containing inflation than it was a few months ago…. [Also] Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, although still a work-in-progress around its fringes, will increase deficits, requiring the Treasury to run its dollar printing presses faster.”
“As Trump badgers Fed to lower rates, it’s the bond market in need of convincing.
“The bond market showed little appetite Friday for granting President Donald Trump’s wish for lower interest rates as two of his signature policy initiatives — tariffs and tax cuts — face looming deadlines.”
“Trump’s capital controls are a ticking financial time bomb…
“Section 899… would empower Washington to impose a crippling 30 per cent tax on foreign investors from any nation that defies its economic demands. Proponents present it as payback for Europe’s digital-services levies, while critics see the first overt capital controls the US has contemplated in half a century.”
“Japan’s government bonds: this time it won’t end well. Even as interest costs mount, politicians promise handouts…
“Voters are eager to be bribed, since inflation has squeezed household incomes. Real wages are down by about 4% since 2019. And the price of rice, the politically sacred Japanese staple, has doubled since the start of 2024…”
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/06/19/japans-government-bonds-this-time-it-wont-end-well
“Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defence spending.
“Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent, higher than its earlier request of 3 per cent, according to three people familiar with the matter, including two officials in Tokyo.”
https://www.ft.com/content/53f646e7-b4e7-4bf4-8d5d-7142b4460080
“Italian defense minister says NATO ‘as it is’ has no reason to exist…
““Before, U.S. and Europe used to be the center of the world — now, there is everything else with which a relationship must be built,” he said, adding: “We often talk as if we were still living 30 years ago, but everything has changed.””
“‘No danger of blowing up Reading’: the site building UK’s next nuclear weapons…
“The sprawling campus is the largest of three locations where Britain manufactures its nuclear warheads – and where the UK will design and build a £15bn replacement for its current arsenal without making a single explosive test.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/22/uk-nuclear-warhead-base-aldermaston
“Ireland shuts last coal plant, becomes 15th coal-free country in Europe.
“Moneypoint in County Clare, Ireland, joins the ranks of other European nations exiting coal by shutting off power generation at its sole remaining coal plant… Moneypoint now functions as a backup oil burner under emergency instruction, but it is no longer active in the wholesale electricity market.”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/06/20/ireland-coal-free-ends-coal-power-generation-moneypoint/
“The ‘sacrifice zone’: villagers resist the EU’s green push for lithium mining…
“Across Europe, people living near lithium deposits appear unconvinced that mines will bring good jobs and are unmoved by pleas to stop a bigger ecological threat. Attempts to push projects through in the face of local resistance have been met with cries of “colonialism”.”
“Energy in Europe is also at stake as Israel-Iran conflict escalates.
“As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates further, there is a mounting fear that natural gas fields are going to be targeted. Europe’s liquefied natural gas supply would be seriously impacted, along with its economies.”
“Separatists in Transnistria face deep economic contraction as Russia restricts subsidies…
“According to the state news agency NovostiPMR, Minister of Economic Development Sergei Obolonik reported that Transnistria’s industrial output fell by 43% in the first five months of 2025. Output in the electric power sector dropped 51.5% year-on-year, while metallurgy and chemical industries contracted by up to 68%.”
“Putin says ‘the whole of Ukraine is ours’ in theory, may take city of Sumy.
“President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russians and Ukrainians were one people, “and in that sense the whole of Ukraine is ours,” and said he did not rule out Russia taking control of the Ukrainian city of Sumy… “We have a saying, or a parable,” Putin said. “Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.””
“Thailand, Cambodia Shut Land Crossings in Escalating Border Spat…
“Cambodia has sought to get the International Court of Justice in The Hague to help settle land disputes in Chong Bok and three other border areas with Thailand. That’s angered Bangkok, which has said it doesn’t recognize the court’s jurisdiction.”
“Specter of dams and diversion looms over Southeast Asia’s Salween River.
“The Salween River, one of Asia’s last free-flowing rivers, supports Indigenous communities and biodiversity across China, Myanmar and Thailand, but faces threats from at least 20 proposed hydropower dams, mainly in Myanmar.”
“New Delhi will “never” reinstate a key water treaty it suspended with Pakistan over deadly violence in India-administered Kashmir, the interior minister said in an interview published Saturday.
“India halted the agreement following an April attack on civilians, which it accused Pakistan of backing…”
https://www.newarab.com/news/india-will-never-restore-indus-water-treaty-pakistan
“Iraq’s fragile economy reels under Israeli-Iranian conflict.
“Iraq is showing clear signs of economic stagnation following the eruption of conflict between Iran and Israel. Citizens are reducing spending, hoarding cash, and losing trust in the local currency.”
https://shafaq.com/en/Report/Iraq-s-fragile-economy-reels-under-Israeli-Iranian-conflict
“Sirens are sounding in central and northern Israel amid a new Iranian ballistic missile attack.
“Civilians in areas where sirens are sounding are instructed to remain in bomb shelters until further notice. It marks the first ballistic missile attack from Iran on Israel in over a day, and the first since the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
“Tulkarem refugee camp faces renewed demolitions in the West Bank.
“On World Refugee Day, global attention turns to the record 122 million people displaced by war, violence, or persecution. In the West Bank, Israel’s Operation Iron Wall continues, targeting homes and infrastructure in the Tulkarem refugee camp.”
“Sudan: Türk warns of catastrophic surge in violence.
“UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk warned today of the disastrous consequences stemming from ongoing and escalating hostilities across the North Darfur and Kordofan regions in Sudan, where civilian casualties, sexual violence, abductions and looting have been reported in multiple areas.”
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/06/sudan-turk-warns-catastrophic-surge-violence
“Armed rebels take control of Heineken facilities in DR Congo’s war-hit east.
“…on Friday, the beer maker said the situation had deteriorated further, and that armed personnel had taken control of its facilities in Bukavu and Goma – eastern Congo’s two biggest cities, now under rebel control – and nearby areas.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/20/africa/congo-heineken-loses-control-war-intl-hnk
“Niger to nationalise uranium mine operated by French state-affiliated firm…
““Faced with the irresponsible, illegal, and unfair behaviour by Orano, a company owned by the French state, a state openly hostile toward Niger since July 26, 2023 … the government of Niger has decided, in full sovereignty, to nationalise Somair,” the authorities said on Thursday.”
“Jihadists on 200 motorbikes storm Niger army base.
“The attackers – described by the ministry as “mercenaries” – raided the base in the western town of Banibangou on Thursday… Niger’s military is under pressure for failing to curb militant attacks, one of its justifications for deposing democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum in 2023.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm20m07kdy3o
“At least 17 killed in clashes in southwestern Chad…
“Most of those who were killed were women and children, local media reported, adding that 16 others were injured in the clashes in which fighters were armed with machetes and clubs.”
https://news.az/news/at-least-17-killed-in-clashes-in-southwestern-chad
“‘In Benue [Nigeria], it’s genocide, not communal clashes’…
““What we are dealing with in Benue is a calculated, well-planned, full-scale genocidal invasion and land grabbing campaign by terrorists and bandits, which has been on for decades.””
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/06/in-benue-its-genocide-not-communal-clashes/
“‘Survive, nothing more’: Cuba’s elderly live hand to mouth.
“With a monthly pension barely sufficient to buy 15 eggs or a small bag of rice, Cuba’s elderly struggle to make ends meet in one of Latin America’s poorest and fastest-aging countries.”
“Panama declares state of emergency over deadly pension protests…
“Besides the pension reforms, Panamanians have also been in the streets over a deal Mulino struck with US President Donald Trump in April allowing US troops to deploy to Panamanian bases along the Panama Canal.”
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back on Saturday with a “Climate” thread. Kali will be very kindly covering for me until then.
Here is an essay from George Tsakraklides, a former sponsor of this website, that echos many of my thoughts about governments lately. The main topic isn’t economics but it has economic components.
Governments: Did We Ever Really Need Them?
Power, Money, and All That Lies Between
“Ireland shuts last coal plant, becomes 15th coal-free country in Europe.”
Yesterday I was forced (at ballpoint) to watch one of Aaron Sorkin’s early hits – 1995’s The American President. Michael Douglas is the reluctantly-conservative President/Demigod to (at the time 37 y.o) Annette Benning’s fiercely idealistic lawyer working for an environmental lobbying firm. A partnership made in heaven that effortlessly and elegantly overcomes all resistance and succeeds in passing a law that decrees 20% reduction in carbon emissions without specifying a reference timeframe. If nothing else, I appreciated the realistic portrayal of climate action.
The only difference between now and 30 years ago is that the physical limits of self-expanding and self-rationalizing surplus value have been exposed, thus also the mind-numbing insanity behind it. Just like the structure of a fantasy (romantic or otherwise) cannot be explicitly acknowledged, i.e the fictional protagonist as the vehicle for the abstract triumph of the reader’s/viewer’s vulnerable and grasping ego. If that unspoken rule is violated, fantasy becomes nightmare.
On Iran, this article from last year sums up everything you need to know.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dipkabhambhani/2024/08/19/us-companies-government-to-boost-iraq-energy-sector-to-temper-iran/
American companies—KBR, Transatlantic Petroleum, Honeywell/UOP, Baker Hughes, Emerson, Arc Energy and GE—are working with RASEP, a Baghdad-based energy infrastructure developer and independent power producer, to develop what could become one of the world’s largest oil and gas fields—Nahr Bin Umar in southern Iraq.
And the punchline: “Timing is huge,” KBR’s President of Sustainable Technology Solutions, Jay Ibrahim, said.
[PS: for an unexpurgated coup d’oeil at Ms Bening’s formidable acting talents I would recommend the 1990 film ‘The Grifters’. Perverse cinema at its finest.]
The Grifters is top-shelf neo-noir, which is itself the finest form of cinema. Bening was a perfect femme fatale in the film.
Hello Pan
Orano is being “nationalised” and Jihad motor gangs are calling the shots. It is an interesting preview of the developments that are rapidly taking place in many countries in the Sahel and all over Africa, Sudan Mozambique, Congo etc. A few notes.
1. Niger: uranium, motorbikes and the shadows of a dying world order
French orano is being nationalised claims the regime. The next step towards France’s exit from Africa. But oh well they won’t be very mournful about it in the this country and region (Sahel) in which “chaos” continues to advance. A Mad Max-like scenario . On the one hand, we see the implosion of old symbols of power: the French uranium giant Orano and the Wagner mercenary force, once pillars of economic and military control respectively. On the other hand, a new, anarchic order is growing, driven by biker gangs, jihadist networks and criminal economies. Together, these developments form a spiral of disintegration.
T
2. he fall of the giant Orano
The nationalisation of the Somair uranium mine marks the end of a decades-long era in which France, through Orano (formerly Areva), managed to link its nuclear dependency to a neo-colonial grip on Niger. But Orano had been a giant on clay feet for years. Mines were loss-making, market prices low, infrastructure obsolete. The 2023 coup and the hostile climate between Paris and Niamey gave the final push. Niger now inherits a zombie asset – loss-making, vulnerable to looting and difficult to manage in a region where security is becoming an illusion.
3. Wagner in the desert: shadow of a shadow
Wagner, once a symbol of Russian mercenary power, has been reduced in Niger to a handful of men serving mainly as bodyguards and PR tool for the junta. The glory days of coordinated operations are over; the remnants of Wagner can at most guard the façade of order in the capital. But the countryside, mining areas and transport routes are beyond their reach.
200 motorbikes and the new force
The attack by 200 motorbikes on an army base near Banibangou illustrates who has won the real ground. Not the state, not multinationals, not foreign mercenaries – but mobile, lightweight, hyper-adaptive networks of armed groups that dominate entire regions without central control. They plunder, enforce, control smuggling routes and resource flows. They are the logical inheritors of the vacuum left behind as old power structures collapse.
The reinforcing spiral of chaos
What connects Orano, Wagner and the biker gangs is that they accelerate each other’s downfall.
Orano’s fall and the implosion of the formal economy make resource looting more attractive and easier. The crumbling military protection (whether state army or mercenaries) makes transport and exploitation vulnerable.The proliferation of armed groups makes economic investment even riskier, causing even more structures to collapse.
Thus, Niger grows into a textbook case of the economy of destruction: where infrastructure and institutions decay, and where violence and looting are the new business model.
4. Where Western companies retreat, China continues to dig. Through the Azalik mine, operated by the state-owned CNNC, China still extracts uranium from Niger. China’s strategy exemplifies a different approach.
They accept low margins because their goal is not profit but strategic security for their nuclear programmes. They continue to operate where others find it too risky – whether mining, oil or infrastructure.
But even China cannot contain the chaos. Their facilities and transport are equally threatened by the anarchy of the Sahel. The commitment to ‘stay where others leave off’ may ultimately prove a trap when the Mad Max landscape makes the last vestige of organised exploitation impossible.
Very interesting, Zip. Roving gangs. The future for us westerners too, before long, due to all the factors we know. And the neocon west/east war to the finish seems to be underway. US plotting Iran regime change since 2009 and well before. Now West vs. BRICS and the global south.
https://t.me/brianlovethailand/4048
Berletic: “Which Path to Persia” we’re on Part III “Toppling Tehran: Regime Change (which the Trump administration is following to a “T”.”
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
I read that last year Cassandra, from Brian’s recommendation, by now I’m finding him so repetitive I’ve turned to others 🙂
Shame really, another several millenia old civilisation brought down, last time it was fully conquered was under Alexander the Great, and that didn’t last long.
The last time they invaded another territory was in 1740, a brief incursion into what is now India.
They withstood the Mongols, and the Ottomans when most of their neighbours didn’t, though they lost the small territory of what is now Azerbaijan to the Turks. Their second largest ethnic/racial group is Azeri after Persian .. they even have the largest Jewish community outside of Israel in the Middle East.
Even at their weakest, they even survived the US-backed Saddam Hussein Iraq-Iran war and several mass chemical warfare attacks in the 1980s.
I do believe I might cry to see such an ancient proud civilisation fall.
Bet global companies that insure tankers that pass thru the Gulf are trying to decide just how much they can increase their bottom line. That probably applies to anything in any combat zones that needs coverage. Enjoy price increases.
Mo Money!, Mo Money!, Mo Money!