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“China Hits Back Against Trump Claims That It Broke Trade Truce as Tensions Simmer…
“Recent developments have damped optimism that the two superpowers will reach a lasting deal, with tensions flaring up over issues such as China’s exports of rare-earth minerals and the Trump administration’s crackdown on student visas.”
“U.S. Dependence on China for Rare Earth Magnets Is Causing Shortages…
“American officials had expected that China would relax its restrictions on the magnets as part of the trade truce the two countries reached in mid-May. But on Friday, President Trump suggested that China had continued to limit access.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/business/china-rare-earths-united-states-supplies.html
“Legal action over huge lithium project in DR Congo on hold as US battles China’s dominance…
“If successful, KoBold will pledge US$1 billion (7.2 billion yuan) to develop the project, countering China’s Zijin Mining, which controls the northern section after Congo revoked AVZ’s rights in 2023.”
“Taiwan Warns of Rise in Chinese Military Activity Around Region.
“Taiwan said China escalated military pressure around the region in May, deploying dozens of warships and government vessels daily in what it described as an extreme pressure campaign.”
“China warns US not to ‘play with fire’ on Taiwan as Hegseth brands Beijing ‘imminent’ threat…
“Hegseth on Saturday said Beijing was “credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.” Any effort to invade Taiwan would “result in devastating consequences,” he added.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/hegseth-taiwan-china-united-states-trump-foreign-policy/
“The Trump administration is gearing up to deliver a major win to Wall Street banks: Easing rules imposed on megabanks in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
“Trump-appointed regulators are nearing completion of a proposal that would relax rules on how much of a capital cushion the nation’s largest banks must have…”
“Wall Street warns Trump aides the GOP tax bill could jolt bond markets.
“Wall Street bankers and executives are privately warning the Trump administration that the tax bill moving through Congress could stoke investor anxiety about rising deficits, push up U.S. borrowing costs and damage the broader economy…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/31/wall-street-warns-trump-tax-bill/
“Treasury secretary Scott Bessent insists US will ‘never default’ on its debt…
“Investor jitters over the size of the US federal debt have mounted as President Donald Trump has urged Congress to push through his “big beautiful” budget bill, which is expected to ratchet up the federal deficit.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9c652f09-cfca-4078-9e2b-5fdacd772a75
“The UK is risking a debt, tax and austerity doom-loop.
“…investors simply do not believe that there is a political path to more sustainable debt levels, at least not without some combination of durably higher inflation and/or a debt default.”
“Sir Keir Starmer has been urged to dramatically cut factory energy costs amid warnings huge bills are pushing Britain towards “de-industrialisation”.
“Make UK, which represents Britain’s biggest manufacturers, said domestic companies faced some of the highest electricity prices in Europe – and that half now viewed this as their biggest future challenge.”
“How Britain’s biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War.
“A number of ongoing conflicts could ignite the global tinderbox – and bosses want to ensure their businesses would survive… major businesses [have] concluded that perma crisis is the new normal, Crump says.””
“UK announces billions in fresh defense splurge amid worries about Russia…
“London will build six new munitions factories, restart shipbuilding for its navy and commit to new anti-missile defense shields as part of a major defense review to be published on Monday. It also reportedly is exploring buying American fighter jets capable of launching tactical nuclear weapons.”
“Thousands march in Rome against security clampdown law…
“”We consider this law the biggest attack on the freedom to dissent” against the government “in the history of the Italian republic,” lawyer Cesare Antetomaso, a member of the National Association of Democratic Lawyers, told Agence France-Presse.”
“Serbia’s protesting students rally across the country to mark 7 months since train station tragedy.
“Thousands of people on Sunday vowed to keep on fighting for justice and rule of law in Serbia as they demanded that President Aleksandar Vucic call a snap parliamentary election following months of persistent demonstrations that have shaken his firm grip on power in the Balkan country.”
“Ukraine just rewrote the rules of war. A drone attack damaged Russia’s bomber fleet — and exposed air base vulnerabilities worldwide…
“The Ukrainian intelligence service, known as the SBU, managed to sneak large numbers of drones deep inside Russia in wooden cabins transported by truck, then launch them by remote control.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/01/ukraine-drone-attack-russia-bombers/
“Russia ‘investigates bridge collapses as terrorist attacks’ as seven people killed…
“The top criminal investigation agency had previously said explosions were the cause but hours later it edited its statement to remove the words “explosions”, without explanation… There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.”
“After talks with Zelenskyy and Macron, US senators warn: Putin ‘is preparing for more war’…
“Peace talks are scheduled to resume Monday in Istanbul. But Ukrainian officials say Moscow has yet to submit a serious proposal — a delay both senators described as deliberate and dangerous.”
“How protests over designer handbags threw Mongolia into political crisis.
“Mongolia has been thrown into fresh political crisis with protesters calling for the resignation of the country’s prime minister over his family’s lavish displays of wealth. For two weeks, young Mongolians have taken to the streets of the capital putting pressure on Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai…”
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/02/asia/mongolia-political-crisis-protests-intl-hnk
“India arrests 81 for ‘sympathising’ with Pakistan amid Kashmir conflict aftermath.
“Indian police have arrested scores of people for “sympathising” with Pakistan, a month after the worst conflict between the arch-rivals for decades, a top government official said on Sunday.”
“Pakistan army to crush Indian-sponsored terrorists with support of Baloch people: Chief of Army Staff…
“Addressing a grand jirga in Quetta on Saturday, organised to interact with tribal leadership and discuss the evolving security situation in Balochistan, the field marshal said this Indian-sponsored proxy war is no longer hidden, Radio Pakistan reported.”
“Military briefing: How Iran is preparing for Israeli or US strikes.
“Iran has been seeking to bolster its air defences as the military prepares for the possibility of an Israeli or US strike against Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure if negotiations over its enrichment programme break down.”
https://www.ft.com/content/dd7a69cb-314b-452c-b87d-0f7ec2a6601a
“Special Report on Tenth Day of Nationwide Truck Drivers’ Strike in Iran.
“The nationwide strike by truck drivers and heavy vehicle operators in Iran reached its tenth day on Saturday, May 31, and has now spread to 152 cities across all 31 provinces. What began as a limited protest has now turned into one of the largest and most coordinated labor strikes in recent years.”
“Is Iraq ready to stand alone against extremist threats if US withdrawal goes ahead?
“…A clear concern surrounding a US withdrawal is whether Iraq’s security forces are now strong enough to withstand threats like the 2014 Daesh assault. The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 is also no doubt fresh in the minds of defense officials.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2603020/amp
“Turkey arrests dozens including opposition party members.
“Some 110 people were arrested in the first four waves of arrests under corruption allegations. The fifth wave on Saturday consisted of four different operations in two cities. Municipal mayors, CHP party members and city officials were among those arrested.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy311zq1r3o
“Divided Israel faces internal unrest amid escalating Gaza conflict.
“In the last few weeks, as Israeli peace activists and antiwar groups have stepped up their campaign against the conflict, supporters of the war have also increased their pressure to continue, whatever its humanitarian, political or diplomatic cost.”
“How Israel is forcing Gazans out of their homes…
“The FT found that more than four-fifths of Gaza — which was among the world’s most densely populated territories even before the war triggered by Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack — is now covered by Israeli military zones and evacuation orders.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ba6e18db-716f-4bb8-8480-e0b7bb584b75
“Civil war wreaks havoc on Sudan’s infrastructure…
“Every type of Sudanese infrastructure has been affected and the estimate for reconstruction is $700 billion. Destroyed bridges, blackouts, empty water stations and looted hospitals across Sudan bear witness to the devastating impact on infrastructure from two years of war.”
“Haitian gangs threaten to topple last government stronghold.
“Almost all of the capital is now under the gangs’ devastating control, while the interim presidential council is wracked by infighting and holed up around the affluent hillside enclave of Pétion-Ville. But the walls are closing in.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e96d941b-d40b-4d08-8e6a-1d6261cbfae6
“Debt is crushing the developing world.
“Strapped for cash, governments are diverting precious public resources away from education, health, infrastructure and climate adaptation to service debts… Compounding the crisis is a weakening global economic environment. Slower growth further undermines debt sustainability, deepening the crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/29a0f7fa-1871-4012-a730-48717fc61ecb
“Global Perspective: Overcoming ‘crisis of trust’ vital as hostility, division deepen…
“Trust in organizations in general, including governments and media outlets, continues to decline, with grievances especially high among low-income groups. Economic uncertainty, job insecurity and inequality — exacerbated by globalization, recession, and accelerating rapid technological change — are fanning resentment and grievances.”
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250531/p2g/00m/0op/033000c
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Politicians project the idea of re-arming as required to protect democracy but really, however they reconcile their cognitive dissonance, it is part of the fight for dwindling resources and to protect the power elites. The reaction to Limits to Growth starting to bite will not be benign de-growth but violence: riots at home and wars abroad. The selection above is just an amuse bouche before the big feast.
We are now in a negative sum game and no war is going to be stopped by a cease fire where all parties are satisfied, but only when one side is thoroughly defeated. However with asymmetric warfare, drones, the end of Pax America and the new multi polar world complete victory is very difficult, so wars just drag on: Yemen-Saudi Arabia, Syrian civil war, Sudan civil war, Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Iran proxies, Congo-Rwanda; soon to be joined by India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, Colombia-Ecuador-Venezuela-Guyana, Algeria-Morocco, Serbia-Kosovo, any number of new civil wars.
Internal riots stay fairly low key until they become inter-elite battles. The Nika riots in Byzantium started as a nominal fight between Blue and Green chariot team fans (maybe the PSGs of their day) but they occurred when there was a lot of dissatisfaction with Justinians rule and a rival ended up leading the rioting throng, which was then massacred by the ruling forces with 30,000 deaths.
George, I’m afraid you are right. More conflict and more violence are baked into the limits to growth cake.
Nicole Foss talked about the “psychology of contraction” in the context of our next global financial crisis, when greed and optimism flip swiftly to pessimism and fear. We already have a slow burn version of that afoot with tightening energy and resource-constraints provoking unease, mistrust and aggression.
For those who don’t know, George’s nod to PSG is a reference to the riots that took place in Paris last night after football team, Paris St. Germain’s Champions’ League win. Two were killed and 500+ arrested. Not quite the Nika riots but still…
“riots at home”
Everyone grab a chair & join me on main street to watch the parade of marauders that will soon be showing up at one’s door.
Wondering how many Americans are/will be invoking their 2nd Amendment rights to buy guns.
“There shall be blood.”? There is blood being spilled all over this rock at this time. We are all killers, except those that don’t kill but sit back & allow the killing to continue. We are good at killing & also at doing nothing to stop it.
Who am I to criticize others” entertainment? 😉
So… peak oil by 2030 or earlier is extremely likely at this point. Question then becomes will it be followed by a plateau in conventional production and decline in shale/unconventional or decline everywhere due to feedback effects from the latter, as well as minerals depletion, as well as climate and geopolitical factors.
Jupiviv, conventional oil peaked around 2006 but we’ve seen tight oil, oil sands, biofuels etc. compensate.
Total liquid fuels production has hovered around the 102-104 million barrels per day mark these past few years, barely exceeding the pre-pandemic high of 102. Meanwhile, crude oil and condensate as a share of that total has been falling.
All western countries look close to being seriously affected by their debt (i.e. the can kicking is about to hit a wall and rebound to whack us in the ‘nads).
The UK isn’t even the worst because most of our debt is reasonably far from maturing, but:
“They [lenders] question the affordability of the triple lock state pension, defined benefit public sector pensions, an NHS that is free at the point of use and a social care system with no apparent long-term funding plan.
“Maintaining all these over a period of time when the number of Britons aged over 80 is going to double to 7 million looks unsustainable.”
Not surprising but not very comforting for potentially one of those entitled 7 million.
George, who knows how long investors’ patience will hold out… The Truss debacle certainly demonstrated that it’s not infinite!
Hello Pan
I have a slightly different view of the chaos dynamics of this century and the role of the elites.
1. Last night, here in eastern central France, a so-called supercell unleashed hailstones of a size never seen before. This was no ordinary thunderstorm, with a core and a predictable discharge field. What discharged was a huge chaotic system, a self-organizing energy formation that discharged at dozens of points simultaneously. Lightning bolts struck with random precision, without orientation, in total chaos. Prigogine would have found it porous.
Actually, a mirror image of geopolitics in the 21st century.
2. In my view, we have moved beyond the classic model of the elite as a centralized power.
What we see now is a complex dissipative system: power is still present, but dispersed, fragmented, no longer capable of control. Today’s elites—politicians, technocrats, top military leaders, CEOs—react like overheated meteorologists without instruments. They proclaim stability, but they themselves are in the eye of the storm, with double-folded umbrellas and clinging to a swaying lamppost while billboards fly around like razor-sharp guillotines.
3. This lack of control is visible everywhere. In domestic politics, ministers are fumbling with crises that are always one step ahead of them: climate, migration, inflation, network congestion, social unrest. Governments try to control problems but fail. Elections no longer deliver solutions, but only procrastination in the form of coalitions. Legislation has become a means of treating the symptoms. In the mirror of the supercell, you can also see the contours of a government that is only driven by release—brief moments of calm between new escalations.
4. What was once a summit for global coordination has now become a ritual without substance. A parade of final declarations full of promises that everyone knows will evaporate before the next edition begins. The supercell is therefore not a metaphor for anarchy, but for entropic governance: a system that no longer focuses its energy on a goal, but on preserving itself through constant discharge.
Think of endless conferences, sanctions without effect, treaties without implementation. The institutions that once served as anchors—the G7, the UN Security Council, the World Bank, even NATO—have become echoes of themselves: consultative bodies with no grip on reality. Every diplomatic discharge is intended to buy time, not to solve problems. Procrastination is the only strategy that still works. The clearest example of this disruption is now the annual climate conference. Whether it is called COP30 or COP31, no one knows exactly anymore, and no one believes that anything will be resolved.
5. Meanwhile, the elites are fighting among themselves. In the US, Silicon Valley is clashing with Wall Street. In Russia, rivals are being thrown off balconies. Within OPEC+, the conflicting interests are evident, as is the clash between bureaucracy and populism in Europe. Power has become fragmented – divided into cartels, interest groups, mercenary armies, militias, and militant investment funds. Chaos now comes from all sides, from below and from above. Even wars are not managed – they unfold in total chaos. From ISIS to Wagner, from Myanmar to M23, from Mozambique to the cartel wars in South America: no conflict has a clear beginning or end, let alone a central command structure. Jihadist cells can paralyze infrastructure worth billions with a few drones. The era of regiments is over—asymmetry has fragmented the battlefield into permanent instability. What remains is a permanent storm without governance, without “energy build-up,” but only discharges.
Welcome to the 21st century… The century of entropy…
Zip, thank you for those very interesting thoughts. There is certainly a sense of power-structures becoming diffuse and mired in confusion as we sink into entropy, although autocracies like China and Russia still look pretty monolithic.
That sounds like a gnarly storm you had. One for tomorrow’s climate thread:
“A super-cell storm hit a dozen municipalities in the Puy-de-Dôme on Sunday evening, including Bertignat, Vertolaye and Olliergues, where the damage is impressive. Trees on the ground, 12cm [five inch] hailstones, many roofs damaged…”
https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/meteo/olliergues-apres-l-orage-et-la-grele-l-heure-est-au-constat-des-degats-9005287
I appreciate the well thought out and elucidated comments today. Also;
Debt is crushing the developing world.
“Strapped for cash, governments are diverting precious public resources away from education, health, infrastructure and climate adaptation to service debts… Compounding the crisis is a weakening global economic environment. Slower growth further undermines debt sustainability, deepening the crisis.”
This says it all. Humanity is reduced to self destruction caused by unrestrained greed.
I guess collectively our species just wanted more of the planet than it could give, Peat. Within that tragic paradigm, there has, I’m afraid, been plenty of unrestrained greed.
I love the term de industrialization or they can’t say collapse of industrial society hold on.
Heather, the UK has been de-industrialising for decades but, yes, this final snuffing out of our industry is courtesy of unaffordable energy and part of systemic collapse.
If you want to know a people, look at their climate.
As the weather becomes more extreme and weird…so will people.
Shanky, I may land myself in hot water here for stereotyping but I am sure there is some truth to what you say. As a repressed northerner, I envy that gregariousness and effervescence you find in warmer climes.
Putting together these threads, I’ve absolutely noticed a correlation between conflicts or other social upheaval and persistent heatwaves in those locales. Some of that is a direct result of people being antagonised by inadequate power supply leading to loss of water, aircon etc but much of it is indirect. The term “hot headed” springs to mind.
From reddit –
“What is, in your opinion, the biggest flaw of the human body?”
The small low functioning brain in the Clever Apes’ skulls.
Tr
Because of self indulgence, relative abundance and comfort, Low efficiency and lower compassion.