Enormous thanks to my anonymous donor for May, who wishes to call attention to Rob Mielcarski’s thought-provoking un-denial site, also featured in my blogroll, which looks at overshoot and related issues.
“Global temperatures could break heat record in next five years. Data also shows small but ‘shocking’ likelihood of year 2C hotter than preindustrial era before 2030…
“Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO… said it was still not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions are cut. “We must take climate action,” he said. “1.5C is not inevitable.”” 🙄
[Global mean temps for the past two years have been 1.6C and we briefly exceeded 2C in Nov 2023; that’s not even factoring in the dubious demarcation of pre-industrial as 1850-1900.]
“Arctic predicted to warm more than three times faster than global average…
““For Arctic sea ice in September (at its minimum extent) from 2025 to 2029, large reductions are predicted in all regions that typically experience sea ice at this time of year,” the report stated. “The ability to predict anomalies at the sea-ice edge is highly accurate, so there is strong confidence in these projected reductions.””
“The shocking loss of older (usually thicker) Arctic sea ice – comparing changes in late March with the latest 2025 data…
[Zack Labe, using NSIDC data]
https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3lqbbr2zeu22r
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA – unbelievable warm nights near the Arctic Circle; some examples:
“19.4C [66.9F] Veslyana, 18.8 Cherdyn, 18.1 Jarensk, 17.4 Lun, 17.1 Sykytvka. Veslyana not only pulverized its spring record of hottest night but also that of June.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927766361758896309
“EXTRAORDINARY OVER 37 [98.6F] DEGREES IN SIBERIA HIGHLANDS.
Dozens of records pulverized with huge margins (see main stations Tmaxes below). Records of hottest nights broken by 5/10+C, locally above summer records, with Minimums up to 22C+.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927716666177167574
“Authorities in the Siberian republic of Buryatia on Wednesday ordered the evacuation of a village due to fast-moving wildfires in the area.
“Buryatia regional head Alexei Tsydenov said strong winds pushed a blaze toward the village of Sulkhara, prompting officials to bus 91 residents, including 33 children, to temporary shelters in a neighboring village.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/28/wildfires-force-evacuation-of-village-in-buryatia-a89255
“Sunniest spring on record could close with temperatures hitting 27C / 80.6F [UK].
“Some 630 hours of sunshine were clocked up across the country between March 1 and May 27, according to provisional figures from the Met Office. This beats the previous record of 626 hours set in 2020.”
“An official drought has been declared across the north-west of England due to a drop in water supply, the Environment Agency has said.
“The region went into drought status on 21 May after weeks of unusually dry weather leading to low water levels in reservoirs and rivers.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj8n48lnpno
“A young ornithologist has warned that a mosquito-born disease linked to a sharp decline in blackbird populations is “a taste of what’s to come”.
“Mya-Rose Craig, from the Chew Valley in Somerset, said the spread of the Usutu virus is proof British wildlife is struggling “in a way people don’t realise”.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgv4740xg4o
“Scientists fear Britain’s entire food chain is contaminated as study finds microplastics in bugs.
“Plastic pollution is harming slugs, beetles, snails and earthworms, new research has found, raising fears Britain’s entire food chain has been contaminated… Polyester, most likely from clothes, was the most common type of plastic found in the invertebrates tested.”
“Brussels tells EU capitals to cut water use by 10% in face of droughts…
“The plan, due to be presented next month and seen by the Financial Times, marks the first time the European Commission will set a target for water efficiency and signals concern about the EU’s dwindling groundwater reserves.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5c27d42b-9e0e-4d37-acfc-f6b534724c47
“Mud and rock bury Swiss village after glacier collapse, one person missing…
“Christian Huggel, a professor of environment and climate at the University of Zurich, said while various factors were at play in Blatten, it was known that local permafrost had been affected by warmer temperatures in the Alps.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/glacier-crumbles-above-evacuated-swiss-village-prompting-huge-rock-slide-2025-05-28/
“Swiss climate refugees?!
“‘Glaciers are already moving down at accelerated speed’. As Europe rapidly warms, rain falling instead of snow provides heat and lubrication for glaciers to collapse.” [Leon Simons]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1927268912611094742
“Heavy flooding in Romania’s Harghita County has caused critical conditions at the historic Praid salt mine, a major tourist attraction…
“According to County Prefect Petres Sandor, the inflow of water is uncontrollable. “We lost the fight with nature. The water has started to enter the salt mine again, with a flow that cannot be controlled at the moment,” Sandor told local press.”
“Paphos banana farmers [Cyprus] ‘on brink of disaster’ over water shortages…
“Their issues were raised at a meeting called on Wednesday evening, which was attended by various MPs and Akamas mayor Marinos Lambrou, with Paphos banana farmers’ association chairman Moses Peyiotis saying the situation “has reached the point of impossibility”.”
https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/05/28/paphos-banana-farmers-on-brink-of-disaster-over-water-shortages
“Forest fire declared out of control in Mallorca. Unusually high temperatures not helping…
“Firefighters from the Palma brigade, the Mallorca brigade and the Balearic Institute of Nature are working in the area, along with the Palma Local Police.”
“Spain will this week bake in a heatwave where temperatures could soar to their highest level for the time of year since [at least] 1950, national weather agency AEMET said on Wednesday…
“The last three years have been the hottest on record in Spain, which is emerging from a years-long drought.”
https://www.thelocal.es/20250528/spain-warns-next-days-could-be-hottest-for-late-may-since-1950
“HISTORIC HEAT IN NORTH AFRICA:
“Brutal heat with 46.6C [115.9F] at Saint Louis SENEGAL coast – HOTTEST DAY IN HISTORY (period of records >140 years); 47C also in MAURITANIA and MALI.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927447213648879807
“Ghana’s vanishing coast: Climate change is eroding historic site.
“In the Ghanaian city of Keta, a key part of the country’s history there is under threat from climate change. Fort Prinz en-stein, which was once a grim clog in the transatlantic slave trade, is now a shell of itself because of rising seas.”
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20250528-ghana-climate-change-is-eroding-historic-site
“HISTORIC HEAT IN TURKEY – 39C [102.2F] at 700m above sea level!
“And exceptional hot nights with records pulverized; tropical nights even above 2000m asl. SOME RECORDS HIGH MINIMUMS: 26.4 Sanliurfa, 26.0 Adiyaman, 25.4 Mardin 1000m, 23.6 Hatay, 23.4 Osmaniye, 24.4 Sirnak 1450m!”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927403889847914763
“Sulaimani wildfires scorch over 1,000 dunams of land [Kurdistan].
“A series of wildfires scorched large swathes of land across Sulaimani province on Wednesday and Tuesday, burning around 1,000 dunams of forest and shrubland and damaging thousands of trees, according to local officials.”
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/28052025
“At least 10 people were killed and 43 injured as strong winds and thunderstorms triggered flash floods and destroyed homes in central and northern parts of Pakistan, officials said Wednesday…
“Soaring temperatures in April and May are becoming more common in Pakistan, which usually sees summer begin in early June.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-violent-pakistan-storms-trigger-landslides.html
“EXTRAORDINARY- HISTORIC HEAT IN [NORTHERN] INDIA:
“CRAZY MINIMUM 35.4C [95.7F] Phalodi – May hottest night broken by 3C already three times in a row. Okha Min 30.0 Record broken for the 5th time in a row! An insanity.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927664481460511072
“Gujarat [NW India] gets record 20 times its normal rainfall in May.
“Until May 27, Gujarat received 50.6 mm of rainfall against a long-range average of 2.5 mm, resulting in 20 times or 1925% more rain than the normal range, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.”
“Eight people who went missing in the recent mountain torrent and mudslide in the county of Longsheng, Guilin City of south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, were confirmed dead on Wednesday.
“A mountain torrent and mudslide struck a village in the county of Longsheng, leaving eight people unaccounted and three injured…”
https://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2025-05-29/detail-iherwsih6787306.shtml
“China issues flood warnings after heavy rain in southern regions…
“China faces longer, more intense heat waves and more frequent and unpredictable heavy rain which meteorologists attributed to climate change. The country is especially vulnerable to climate change, authorities have said, because of its huge population.”
“More record heat in JAPAN:
“The remote island of Chichijima yesterday broke its record of May highest temperature with 30.5C [86.9F]. Records have fallen all over Japan this month and every single month in the past 5+ years has broken records.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927685586376085931
“Deforestation and fires persist in Indonesia’s pulpwood and biomass plantations.
“Industrial plantations of trees to make paper and wood pellets are causing widespread and persistent environmental and social violations in Indonesia, despite claims to the contrary by the industry and government, a new report shows.”
“Severe flooding submerges villages in East Kalimantan, as Indonesia battles series of disasters.
“…powerful river currents, intensified by heavy rainfall, swept through public infrastructure and residential areas. The floodwaters brought down trees and debris, further hampering access and response efforts on the ground.”
“Record-breaking rain sweeps Northern Territory farms and stations during dry season.
“Rainfall records have tumbled across the Northern Territory, including 179 millimetres [seven inches] in just 24 hours near Katherine. Cattle producers say the rain is welcome, but it has caused issues for some melon growers.”
“NSW floods declared insurance catastrophe.
“The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has upgraded devastating floods across NSW’s Mid North Coast and Hunter regions to an Insurance Catastrophe, triggering priority support for thousands of affected property owners.”
“An Australian lamb price record has been smashed three times in 24 hours in Victoria this week driven by drought, floods and a strong appetite for Aussie lamb overseas.
“Heavy lambs hit $410 a head at Warracknabeal in the state’s north-west on Wednesday.”
“New South Wales is grappling with a widespread dust storm days after record flooding that killed five and displaced 50,000 people…
“Massive dust clouds blanketed parts of the state, including the capital of Sydney, on Tuesday, creating conditions which experts warn are hazardous to health. Authorities warned of “extremely poor” air quality in some suburbs…”
“Severe storm in Santa Fe: one dead, damage, evacuations, flooding, and classes suspended [Argentina]…
“Two weeks after the storm that caused fatalities and infrastructure disasters in the Buenos Aires towns of Campana and Zárate , a strong storm hit the province of Santa Fe early this morning…”
https://www.pagina12.com.ar/829068-fuerte-temporal-en-santa-fe-un-muerto-destrozos-evacuados-in
“A court in Germany has rejected a lawsuit brought by a Peruvian farmer against German energy giant RWE in a long-awaited decision.
“Saúl Luciano Lliuya had argued that the firm’s global emissions contributed to the melting of glaciers in Peru – threatening his hometown of Huaraz with flooding.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5lwveqzno
“Heavy Rainfall in Ozarks Breaks 80-Year-Old Record.
“The Ozarks have officially recorded their wettest April and May on record, with over 20 inches of rainfall falling across the region in the last two months. This surpasses the pervious record set back in 1943.”
https://www.ozarksfirst.com/news/ozarks-break-records-rainfall-april-may/
“Intense spring heat in CANADA from West (especially) to East: 35.9C [96.6F] Ashcroft and Kamloops, 35.2 Lytton, BC. 32.3C Beaverlodge lat 55N altitude 745m asl, Alberta.
“Tomorrow the Northwest Territories can attack its territorial record of May highest temperature.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1927886031891628398
“Thousands in Canada’s Manitoba ordered to evacuate in wildfire emergency…
““The Manitoba government has declared a province-wide state of emergency due to the wildfire situation,” Manitoba’s premier, Wab Kinew, told a news conference. “This is the largest evacuation Manitoba will have seen in most people’s living memory.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/29/canada-wildfires-manitoba-province-fire-evacuation
“Marine heat waves in the Chesapeake Bay doubled over past two decades, according to new research.
“…a new study led by the University of Maryland is yet another confirmation of what scientists have reported for years: The bay is steadily warming and seeing a growing number of extreme heat incidents known as marine heat waves.”
“Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole…
“Here we use observations as a benchmark and climate models as a tool to demonstrate that only models simulating a weakened historical Atlantic overturning can broadly reproduce the observed cooling and freshening in the warming hole region.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02403-0
“Planet’s darkening oceans pose threat to marine life, scientists say…
“Dr Thomas Davies, a marine conservationist at the University of Plymouth, said the findings were a “genuine cause for concern”, with potentially severe implications for marine ecosystems, global fisheries and the critical turnover of carbon and nutrients in the oceans.”
“World faces new danger of ‘economic denial’ in climate fight, Cop30 head says [Brazil]…
“André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian diplomat, who will direct this year’s UN summit, wants to spur a new global effort to persuade people that remodelling the economy away from a reliance on fossil fuels and towards a clean energy future will reap benefits for all people.”
“Brazil advances with plan to drill oil at the mouth of the Amazon River.
“Brazil’s environmental agency, IBAMA, approved a key step that could soon allow Petrobras, the nation’s state oil company, to begin offshore oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River.”
“How the world’s largest wealth fund looks at climate risk. Norway’s giant oil fund thinks climate threats to valuations have been underestimated…
“”But it’s important, Smith Ihenacho argued, to be “realistic on what investors can do”. “Clearly, it also needs political solutions,” she said. “Investors alone can’t solve the climate crisis we’re in.””
https://www.ft.com/content/c2cb9f70-0972-46ed-a5e2-2d37ae9cc373
“Greenhouse gases haven’t been much above Eemian levels during the past 800,000 years (Vostok ice core).
“To find a total GHG forcing similar to today, 15 million years ago seems about right. We’re rapidly surpassing even that.” [Leon Simon]
https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1927363030356013555
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an ”Economic” thread.
Neither climate or economic news, just another example of mankinds ability to lose control of its creation. Humanity is struggling to stay afloat in the water in the middle of the Pacific without a life jacket and it is hoping to climb on the back of Frankenstein, also struggling to stay afloat in the same water, to save itself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVkCfn6kSqE
Good analogy!
“Open the pod bay doors, HAL”.
“I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that”.
It won’t be long now. There are already AIs that are resisting shutdown.
From the end of “Colossus: The Forbin Projet” (1970)
Colossus: In time you will come to regard me not only with respect and awe, but with love.
Dr. Forbin: NEVER!
Fantastic metaphor Curt. I shared it on my Substack with my periodic sharing of Pan’s work.
https://substack.com/profile/85205491-leaf-rhetoric/note/c-121114958
Leaf, many thanks for the networking help.
It is indeed a nice analogy, Curt.
Thank you for that link, which features smart cookie, Sabine Hossenfelder, talking about how AI programmes are getting their hooks into academia, churning out increasingly plausible scientific papers and finding devious ways to boost their citation-counts.
My goodness, what a hall of mirrors this era is becoming.
You are saying Humans created Planet Earth?????????? Make me an eyeball or a liver! We create nothing. NOTHING! Humans are a species that exists on Planet Earth, one of billiions of species and you are visiting this a amazing planet wearing a spacesuit called a human animal. The planet has been here 4.5 Billion years, modern Homo Sapiens 300,000 years. The Big Bang -13.8 Billion years ago, Earth 4.5 Billion years rotating around the sun, which is a STAR in the Milky Way galaxy, which contains 300 BILLION STARS, and there are 2 Trillion galaxies. Truth, science. Enjoy your visit, it is very short, even is you get 100 years. Wake up, humans are here during another mass extinction event. Wow. We are the dinosaurs. You can suffer or accept . Your choice. Wisdom.
Amira,
I am saying that humans are trying to create artificial intellegence that is useful and not dangerous.
How many records must tumble like glaciers through our existence before the drunken apes value their life support systems.
Thousands? Tens of thousands? Hundreds. Too many I’m afraid.
The stampede will be diabolical.
The difference between Panopticon’s daily accounts does not gel with my respected news sources. It’s hard not to be pessimistic and give up hope. I’m grateful for this site, must be time to buy Harry some more coffees.
How many records must tumble?Too many for sure, Sean. Pessimism is obviously warranted. The time for hope is over. In my opinion it’s time to have the courage to witness which is what we here are doing and to try to maintain decency and compassion as the biosphere as we have known it collapses.
I’m sure he will appreciate the coffees, Sean. I encourage everyone here to buy some coffees from time to time (and I know many of you have or are Patreon supporters 👏).. I know Panopticon spends hours a day putting these posts together, getting up early to do so before he gets to his other work. One of the gifts of our toxic internet is that I connected with him and his work.
Agreed Cassandra
Thank you for the kind sentiments, Sean and Cassandra. 💚
I don’t do this for the cash but cranking out these threads can be tough and time-consuming, so I do appreciate my Patreon subscribers, donors and the occasional, spontaneous coffee very much indeed. ☕
So true Cassandra. It no longer weighs on me, and my scientific brain is more than content to bear witness. So many metaphors.
In all it’s finality, I lose sight of individuals and species and marvel at gift of life we all share.
A simple life immersed in natural rhythms is healing.
Blatten is 90% covered by landslide, BUT: mayor vows to rebuild! <- you can't fix stupid
Climate change impact on glacier collapse remains uncertain, experts say. In other news, Israeli bombing impact on Gaza remains uncertain.
Cassandra, I know Switzerland has a special place in your heart. The latest footage of poor Blatten is pretty jaw-dropping:
https://www.euronews.com/video/2025/05/29/aerial-footage-shows-alpine-village-buried-by-birch-glacier-slide
I read that first article yesterday on the AP and of course had to scream about their absolutely ridiculous twenty year average rule on my YT channel.
Also men are dropping out the outside work wage slave labor force.. surprised?
https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/article/climate-change-and-the-rise-of-adult-male-dropouts/193257/
Doom Wizard, thank you for that article, which looks at the labor force participation rates vs changing climate across the US.
I was talking to a friend in Dubai about the recent, record-breaking temps there. He says that it’s just about tolerable in brief bursts between air-conditioned car, mall or office because it’s dry heat. September, he says, is when it is brutal because of the accompanying humidity. The impoverished, migrant labor force there doesn’t have much choice but to participate. Readers may remember this story from a couple of years ago:
“Migrant workers form 88 percent of the UAE’s population, and the preparation and delivery of COP28 also relied on workers who have faced labor abuses. As Human Rights Watch has recently documented, abuses of UAE-based migrant workers are linked more broadly to climate-related harm.”
https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/03/questions-and-answers-migrant-worker-abuses-uae-and-cop28
The WMO is using models that failed to predict the 2023 temperature jump and expected this year to see a significant drop from last. There is still no concensus understanding of the mechanisms involved: 1) cloud/temperature feed back -probably the most likely, but also the worst as it is an exponential feedback – i.e. the rate of temperature rise is partly a function of the present temperature; 2) aerosols; 3) stratification; 4) something particular to the poles, especially the Antarctic etc. Plus I bet they are not using the latest record, and accelerating, growth in GHG concentrations. So it’s almost certain that the probabilities given are significantly low.
Here’s a good discussion on a paper listed here a couple of days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa9h_zVM1RY
But how the hell can she say: “We’ll be there [1.5] within 20 years”? We’re already there; using the averaging method we probably passed it in 2022.
George, I recall in the run-up to my local COP – COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 – the IPCC’s warning was that we were likely to hit 1.5C by 2040. That hasn’t aged well.
They aren’t wrong – we did hit 1.5C by 2040…also 2030…2025…2023…2022… :-/
That cracked me up. 😉
I remember that Keystone COP, it inspired me to rewrite Joni’s “Carey”:
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hsimp=yhs-att_001&hspart=att&p=carey+by+joni+mitchell#id=2&vid=a5b2f44a51aa239d2934623d365239f9&action=click
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2021/11/pretty-lies.html
Luckily things have gotten much better since then.
Yes, indeed. The COPs have really demonstrated their efficacy these past few years. 🙄
“Speech after empty speech
Oh you know it sure is hard to listen”
That about sums it up for me.
Not as dramatic as huge landslides, fires and floods but this was jaw dropping:
“Scientists fear Britain’s entire food chain is contaminated as study finds microplastics in bugs.”
Which probably means everywhere on earth.
Kali: Which probably means everywhere on earth.
James: Yep, here in Australia “Tonnes of microplastics infiltrate Australia’s agricultural soils each year, study shows” (https://theconversation.com/tonnes-of-microplastics-infiltrate-australias-agricultural-soils-each-year-study-shows-250624)
https://theievoice.com/california-heat-ranking-system/
California has started a heat ranking system fir heat waves
Don’t mess with Mother Nature & the only habitat in which one can survive.
I’m enjoying watching all the different weather weirding consequences brought about by the self absorbed, narcissistic egos of the Clever Ape.
How long before monkey minds realize there is no place to where they can escape?
Wonder what a Canfield ocean will look like? We could be the baboon brains to see one. It’s all about being #1 but sadly this is not a game. Everyone gets a trophy that says: “I died because of my actions, in-actions, wilful ignorance & refusal to live with less.”
Getting what one deserves can be a drag. 😉
https://guymcpherson.com/science-update-earths-energy-imbalance/