Enormous thanks to my anonymous donor for May, who wishes to call attention to Rob Mielcarski’s thought-provoking un-denial site, also featured in my blogroll, which looks at overshoot and related issues.
“Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets…
“Given the catastrophic consequences for humanity of a rapid collapse of one or more ice sheets leading to multi-metre sea level rise, we conclude that …a global mean temperature cooler than present is required to keep ice sheets broadly in equilibrium… we hypothesise that it probably lies close to, or even below, +1.0 °C above pre-industrial.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w
“Clouding the forecast: Why so many climate models are wrong about rate of Arctic warming…
“”These ice-dominant models are not properly accounting for the present-day warming potential of the clouds during the winter,” says Nakanishi. “That’s why they cannot account for the rapid warming we are currently seeing.””
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-clouding-climate-wrong-arctic.html
“Seaweed surges may alter Arctic fjord carbon dynamics…
“…continued warming-driven growth of seaweed forests could lead to expansion of oxygen-starved zones in Kongsfjorden and other High Arctic fjords, potentially destabilizing these ecosystems, the researchers say.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-seaweed-surges-arctic-fjord-carbon.html
“Another exceptional warm night in GREENLAND:
“Minimum 14.9C [58.8F] at Nararsuaq, only 1.5C from the Greenland hottest night in history for any month and 2nd minimum in a row >14C; record high minimums smashed in a third of the country. ICELAND meanwhile had another 25C+ [77F]. Exceptional.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1924879824423616606
“Section of Baikal Highway Closed in Transbaikalia Due to Forest Fires [Siberia].
“In the Uletovsky district of the Zabaikalsky Krai, traffic has been closed for all types of transport on a section of the federal highway from 1030 to 1034 km. This is in the area of the village of Tataurovo. Forest fires are raging there…”
https://www.baikal-daily.ru/news/20/500046/
“UK sea temperatures soar after exceptionally warm Spring.
“Temperatures in the seas around the UK and Ireland have soared in the past week with some areas now 4C warmer than normal… Sea temperatures in April and the first half of May were the highest recorded during those months since monitoring began 45 years ago.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7533y6l3k0o
“West Nile virus detected in UK mosquitoes for first time…
“The virus is found in many parts of the world, including Africa, South America and mainland Europe. Climate change and other factors have been pushing mosquitoes – and the diseases they carry – further north in recent years.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77115e0645o
“‘It’s a critical time’: European farmers struggle through driest spring in a century…
“Farmers across north-western Europe are waiting with bated breath for fresh rains as typically drizzly countries such as the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany suffer through what may be their driest spring in a century.”
“Extreme weather costs EU farmers 28 billion euros a year, EU says.
“The European Union’s agriculture sector loses an average of 28.3 billion euros ($31.9 billion) each year from extreme weather made worse by climate change, EU-backed analysis published on Tuesday showed.
Most of these losses… are not insured.”
“EU’s ‘chocolate crisis’ worsened by climate breakdown, researchers warn…
“More than two-thirds of the cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat and maize brought into the EU in 2023 came from countries that are not well prepared for climate change, according to the UK consultants Foresight Transitions.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/21/eu-chocolate-climate-breakdown-crisis-report
“‘There is nothing left’: Seaside town devastated by violent storm as flooding kills three in southern France.
“The flooding has caused significant damage to the region in southeast France… A couple in their 80s died in Le Lavandou on the coast, where the mayor described “scenes of war” after a “truly violent, nasty, incomprehensible phenomenon”.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-floods-var-lavandou-b2755044.html
“Storm brings over 220 millimeters [8.7 inches] of rain in a few hours to western Liguria: traffic disruption and flooding [Italy]…
“In the Savona area, over 220 mm of rain fell in just a few hours (recorded by the Calice Ligure station), quickly bringing the rivers to the warning level. In particular, the Pora torrent, in Finale Ligure…”
https://telenord.it/maltempo-nubifragio-nel-finalese-e-nel-savonese-allagamenti-nell-imperiese-89426
“Six people died in an overnight landslide after torrential rain in Côte d’Ivoire’s main city Abidjan, a government minister and emergency workers said…
“”We learned mid-morning of the initial damage caused by last night’s rain in Abidjan,” National cohesion Minster Myss Belmonde Dogo wrote on her Facebook page.”
https://www.trt.global/afrika-english/article/e6a757075bd5
“South Africa: Disaster Teams On Scene After Cape Town Floods…
“After two days of persistent rain, disaster risk management officials visited affected areas to assess the impact and immediate needs of residents. Spokesperson Sonica Lategan says officials attended to floods in areas including Masiphumelele, Village Heights, Overcome Heights, Lwandle, Khayelitsha and Monwabisi.”
https://www.ewn.co.za/2025/05/22/disaster-teams-assess-impact-of-cape-town-flooding
“RECORD HEAT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
“Heat never ends in Southern Africa. Temperatures still >35C in South Africa and a historic 38.0C [100.4F] at Massangena MOZAMBIQUE today which is a May record for the station and record heat for the country for that late.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1925325734609834019
“Kuwait faces rise in dust storms due to drought and delayed rainfall…
“Issa Ramadan told Al Qabas newspaper that the lack of rainfall during the past winter and spring has prevented surface soil from binding properly, making it more prone to being lifted by winds. Additionally, vegetation growth in the desert has declined, further contributing to soil instability.”
“EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN MIDDLE EAST:
“Min. 35.6 Hosseynieh, 35.1 [95.2F] Ahvaz; 34.7 Kuwait AP – IRAN & KUWAIT HOTTEST MAY NIGHTS IN HISTORY. IRAN/SAUDI RECORDS FOR MAY: 46.0 Tabas, 44.8 Khor,41.0 Yazd, 38.4 Torbat, 37.7 Guchan, 37.4 Shahrud, 37.3 Tehran, 36.6 Ghazvin.”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1925260224127995916
“Highest temperatures recorded yesterday in Iran – 52.1°C [125.6F] Shabankareh is earliest 52°C ever recorded worldwide!
“Also 50.4°C Ab Pakhsh, 49.7°C Bostan, 49.6°C Shush, 49.0°C Lamard, Rudan, Bastak & Omidiyeh, 48.9°C Dehloran & Borazjan U.” [Thierry Goose]
https://x.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1924872828740092139
“Karachi boils [Pakistan].
“Residents across Karachi are suffering as an intense heatwave grips the city, accompanied by severe water shortages and frequent power outages… With temperatures soaring above 40C, many are left without cooling options and/or water, making daily life unbearable.”
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1313907-karachi-boils
“Sindh turns battlefield over Pakistan Army’s Indus canals, 2 shot dead.
“Northern Sindh turned into a “virtual battlefield” as people protesting against the Pakistan Army’s Indus canals project set oil tankers and a minister’s house on fire. Two activists were killed and 15 injured as police opened fire.”
“In sheer violation of Indus Waters Treaty, India has stopped water falling in Neelum River after coming from Kishanganga dam.
“Athmuqam Police Superintendent said the water pressure in the Neelum River is 40 percent lower than normal at eight locations… the Pakistani military has issued a strong warning…”
“INDIA RECORD HEAT:
“Record heat never ends in India, nearly every single day of 2025 records have fallen. Today it was the May hottest night in history at Surendranagar with a Minimum temperature of 29.8C [85.6F].”
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1924757625335324859
“‘Near-death experience’: IndiGo Delhi-Srinagar flight faces sudden hailstorm.
“A Srinagar-bound Indigo flight from Delhi with more than 220 people on board encountered sudden hailstorm leading to severe turbulence on Wednesday, prompting the pilot to report the “emergency” to air traffic control at Srinagar.”
“Rain fury batters South India, five dead in Karnataka, red alerts in Kerala.
“Heavy rains lashing parts of Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu over the past two days have triggered floods, casualties, and major disruptions, prompting widespread alerts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).”
https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=1281104
“Many parts of the Chinese mainland are being hit by record May heat.
“Northern and central swathes of the mainland saw temperatures surge on Tuesday, with cities in Henan and Hebei sweltering under more than 40°C heat. The hot weather followed fatal deluges in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, with both climatic extremes being described as symptoms of global warming.”
https://macaonews.org/news/greater-china/heat-wave-china-climate-change/
“South Korea was hit by unseasonal heat Wednesday, as new records for the highest daily minimum temperatures for May were set in the Seoul metropolitan area + other regions…
“In Seoul, the lowest temperature of the day was 23 C, recorded at 5:53 a.m., the highest daily minimum temperature of May since modern meteorological observations began in the city in October 1907.”
“Tokyo to waive water fees this summer to combat extreme heat.
“Basic water utility fees will be waived for residents of the Japanese capital Tokyo this summer in an effort to limit the impact of extreme heat. Some ¥36bn ($250m; £186m) has been set aside for the subsidies, which will come into effect for a four-month period.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3d44mn9y8ko
“NSW flooding live updates: One dead, almost 50,000 evacuated as rainfall continues to batter state’s Mid North Coast, Hunter regions in ‘one-in-500-year’ flood event…
“Premier Chris Minns has warned that 100 millimetres of rain is still expected to fall across already flood-stricken communities across northern NSW, with downpours of 200 to 300 millimetres possible in some areas.”
“Extreme heat, violent storms: How Rio de Janeiro is facing its new climate reality.
“Extreme weather in Rio de Janeiro is getting worse: recent years have brought record-breaking heat and rainfall to Brazil’s second-largest city, intensifying the risk of floods and landslides, particularly in vulnerable urban areas.”
“Heavy rains cause flooding in several cities in Paraíba [Brazil].
“The rains recorded on Tuesday night caused flooding and disruption in several municipalities in Paraíba. Cities such as Santa Rita , Pedras de Fogo and the capital João Pessoa recorded points of water accumulation, impassable streets and reports of strong winds.”
“Historical heat record for May at the weather station in Havana [Cuba].
“The weather station in Casablanca, Havana, recorded a maximum temperature of 38.0 [100.4F] degrees Celsius this Tuesday, setting a new historical record for the month of May in that area… the record exceeds the previous mark of 37.3 degrees Celsius, set on May 19, 2024, just a year ago.”
“Wettest Year On Record So Far In Kentucky Causes Planting Delays…
““Normally, Kentucky sees about 50 inches of rain a year, and some counties have received 35–40 inches of rain and we aren’t out of the month of May yet.””
“Tornado outbreak likely costliest US severe weather event of 2025.
“…a widespread tornado outbreak across the U.S. Midwest and Southeast has resulted in substantial economic and insured losses, with Cotality estimating that approximately 63,000 properties may have been damaged nationwide and total reconstruction costs nearing $16 billion.”
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/tornado-outbreak-likely-costliest-us-severe-weather-event-of-2025/
“The US has “plenty of time” to solve the climate crisis,” the interior secretary, Doug Burgum, told a House committee on Tuesday…
““The existential threats that this administrations is focusing on are: Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon, and we can’t lose the AI arms race to China,” he said. “That’s the number one and number two. If we solve those two things, then we will have plenty of time to solve any issues related to potential temperature change.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/20/doug-burgum-climate-crisis-interior-secretary
“Global yields of wheat are around 10% lower now than they would have been without the influence of climate change, according to a new study…
“It comes as heat and drought have this year been putting wheat supplies at risk in key grain-producing regions, including parts of Europe, China and Russia.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-wheat-yields-would-be-10-higher-without-climate-change/
“Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows…
“In tropical regions, home to the most biodiverse and carbon-dense forests on the planet, fire became the leading driver of loss for the first time since global records began. However, fire is not a natural part of tropical ecosystems.”
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You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an ”Economic” thread.
Oops, posted this on the wrong page..
On climate, I would recommend the novel: *All the Water in the World*
All the Water in the World is told in the voice of a 13-year old girl Nonie, with a deep feeling for water. In the years after the glaciers melt, Nonie, her older sister and her parents and their scholar researcher friends stayed behind in an almost deserted New York City, creating a settlement on the roof of the American Museum of Natural History.
They hunt a lIttle and grow food in Central Park as they work to save the collections of human history and science. When a superstorm finally breaches the city’s ageing flood walls, Nonie and her family must escape north on the Hudson. They carry with them a book that holds their records of the lost collections.
Racing on the swollen river towards what may be safety, they encounter other communities that have adapted in very different and sometimes very frightening ways, to the new reality. But they are determined to find a way to make a new world that honors all they’ve saved.
Inspired by the stories of the curators and archivists in Iraq and the Siegel of Leningrad who worked to protect their stores of knowledge, antiquities and archives from war, All the Water in the World is both a meditation on what some of us might see as important enough to save from collapse, a coming-of-age story, and an adventure story—
with danger, storms, and a fight for survival. In the spirit of the Parable of the Sower, this wild journey offers the hope that what matters most – love, work, community and knowledge – will survive.
“… love, work, community and knowledge – will survive.”
As a Dad, I would dearly love to believe this. Eiren Caffall is apparently the author. This is her website:
https://www.eirencaffall.com/
Yes, Eiren, like many of her family, has a rare genetic disorder of polycystic kidney disease and her first book, her memoir, of growing up with the family experience of early deaths going back generations, parallelling the death of ecosystems.
She has been called a modern day Rachel Carson.
I’m halfway through the novel, such beautiful poetic writing, and I love the way she used the young girl as narrator, coming-of-age in such a world.
Ah, but it’s okay bc Sam altman says we’ll have an ai pocket companion that’s listening and seeing all the time which will replace our screens in ten years…
Interior secretary says we have more time to solve the climate crisis..
Let’s add 3 trillion more to the deficit.
Fuck humanity, we failed.
🎯🎯🎯
Doom Wizard, re those trillions, investors not loving US debt right now. Feels like we are reaching the limits of sovereign borrowing.
Interior Secretary says we can get to “potential temperature change” later after AI and Iran.
So once the US has an AI that can replace all jobs and make workers obsolete, and once the US makes Iran come back to the negotiating table that the US itself flipped over, THEN we can ask it how can we feed ourselves now that it’s impossible to grow food.
Grow FOOD!? How last century. During This century, the emphasis has, and continues to be, expanding the acreage of industrial monocropping dedicated to growing Fuel … Where ya been?
The nutritional needs of billions are simply not met right now so as to grow crops to fuel machines. Multi-ton vehicles are being robofactured by the tens of millions to transport 150 pound payloads on their daily trek to their corporate-provided sinecures. But a CNA working in a capitalist hospital can never earn the money needed to pay the price for, nevermind the cost of, such an energetically-expensive endeavor, hence the economic system bears it as a whole.
The equation is simple and has just been illustrated for us by the early-morning passage of the BBB:
When the ACA, otherwise known as Obamacare, came under assault during the first Slump administration, pundits opined that with 13 million Americans’ health insurance in jeopardy, it would be safe; we now see how wrong they were.
But the same Red states whose employees lose the federal dollars to insure their citizens’ health, all have seen increased amounts of federal dollars go to support the growth of biofuels … the math is simple:
Warmart makes 3cents profit on every dollar spent to feed the people; use that same crop to feed the machines, and the profit soars.
That the costs of this enterprise is so out-of-whack with the real-world price matters not a whit, as the costs are borne by the public in the form of enormous subsidies, and by the environment in the form of totally devastated eco-systems, but the Profits on the balance sheet are stellar. Consequently, the more the productivity of acreage planted declines, the more the percentage of those fields dedicated to growing biofuels will increase.
Since the economic system counts oil as though it were simply another commodity, it should come as no surprise that it has the same attitude toward food. Machines are utilized because they are more productive than human beings, hence keeping them running is more important than keeping “the excess population” of humans fed.
We’re all watching the MAGAZA strip genocide as though it is an anomaly; but it’s tenet of mass murder in the name of the Almighty for the ascendancy of some superior Chosen few is our totalitarian future.
Rob, 40% of corn grown in the US is for biofuels. It is really a staggering misallocation of land and food.
Here on Islay they were looking at making biobutanol from draff, a by-product of the whisky industry. I don’t think it came to anything. The cost in energy/money of collecting and shipping draff over to a biorefinery on the mainland would make the exercise pointless, I assume.
Aaron, I noticed the devious insertion of the word “potential”, too. Naughty.
I have the book the water knife i still need to read. These days its hard to read anything as things are too real and raw for me at the moment.
Heather, sorry to hear you’re feeling the weight of it all. Sounds like “Water Knife” would make a good movie:
“The American Southwest has been decimated by drought, Nevada and Arizona skirmish over dwindling shares of the Colorado River, while California watches. When rumors of a game-changing water source surface in Phoenix, Las Vegas water knife Angel Velasquez is sent to investigate.
“With a wallet full of identities and a tricked-out Tesla, Angel arrows south, hunting for answers that seem to evaporate as the heat index soars and the landscape becomes more and more oppressive. There, Angel encounters Lucy Monroe, a hardened journalist who knows far more about Phoenix’s water secrets than she admits, and Maria Villarosa, a young Texas migrant who dreams of escaping north to those places where water still falls from the sky.
“As bodies begin to pile up and bullets start flying, the three find themselves pawns in a game far bigger, more corrupt, and dirtier than any of them could have imagined. With Phoenix teetering on the verge of collapse and time running out, their only hope for survival rests in one another’s hands.
“But when water is more valuable than gold, alliances shift like sand, and the only truth in the desert is that someone will have to bleed if anyone hopes to drink.”