Enormous thanks to my anonymous donor for May, who wishes to call attention to Rob Mielcarski’s thought-provoking un-denial site, also featured in my blogroll, which looks at overshoot and related issues.
“The march towards the next global economic crisis has begun and you must fear its coming.
“In 2008, around $1.3 trillion of US sub-prime loans triggered the global financial crisis…. the exposure to riskier borrowers today is over ten times that… The process is one of downward spiralling feedback loops.”
“‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy…
“A dramatic lurch in the Japanese bond market has heightened fears that debt-heavy Western governments such as the UK and even the US could be in line for a budget-busting financial crunch… Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s prime minister, warned parliament on Monday that his debt-strapped government’s position was “worse than Greece”…”
“Japan’s long-term borrowing costs hit record high on demand fears [30-year and 40-year government bonds literally bidless at auction]…
“Rates traders in Tokyo said Tuesday’s moves reflected growing concerns over the effects of the Bank of Japan’s tapering of its bond purchases, the economic risks posed by US trade tariffs and Japan’s gross national debt, which stood at more than 200 per cent of annual GDP.”
https://www.ft.com/content/791cbe4c-2ab5-46e3-9a23-492e86edebcb
“The Bank of Japan remains trapped:
“•If it raises rates to defend the yen or cap inflation, it risks triggering a fiscal spiral via exploding debt servicing costs.
“•If it holds rates down, the bond market imposes its own discipline by repricing duration risk violently.” [EndGame Macro]
https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1924831549683298535
“Corporate Japan warns of $28bn blow from US tariffs…
“Japanese car companies, as well as steel and aluminium producers, are subject to tariffs of 25 per cent on US imports, while other sectors have 24 per cent levies on their goods as part of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a87c5a54-73ac-4e1f-8afd-a01995b30ec5
“Majority of US companies say they have to raise prices due to Trump tariffs.
“More than half (54%) of the US companies surveyed by insurance company Allianz said they will have to raise prices to accommodate the cost of the tariffs… The unpredictability of US trade policy has also dented exporters’ confidence.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/20/trump-tariffs-prices-allianz-report
“US Borrowing costs rose sharply yesterday as fears mounted over America’s debt pile worth £27trillion.
“Long-term US bond yields hit an 18-month high after Moody’s last week downgraded the credit rating of the world’s largest economy.”
“Rise in loans to US non-bank financial groups raises systemic risk fears…
“The increase comes as regulators home in on the interconnectedness of banks to private equity and the fast-growing private credit sector, an opaque area of the market that has relatively little regulatory oversight.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8da75eba-bf80-4d31-ba49-1a4133e390c0
“Stablecoin Bill Advances in US Senate in Big Win for Crypto…
“Stablecoin legislation overcame a procedural blockade in the US Senate, marking a major victory for the crypto industry after a group of Democrats dropped their opposition Monday.”
“Cryptocurrencies are emerging as ‘digital gold’ in a shaky world economy.
“Demand is growing for borderless, neutral financial tools in a fragmenting world economy, with rising tariffs and alliances under strain… We may be witnessing the early stages of a historic reserve reallocation – not to replace the dollar, but to hedge against its limits. A contingency plan, quietly going mainstream.”
“Bank of England is cutting rates too quickly, warns its chief economist.
“His comments come ahead of official UK inflation data due on Wednesday morning that is expected to show a pick-up in consumer prices inflation to 3.3 per cent in April [actually, it’s 3.5%], up from 2.6 per cent the prior month.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a236c84c-e09e-4bc2-9799-d60f797bf14b
“The [UK] chancellor has signalled a willingness to overhaul the most significant regulatory measure imposed on Britain’s biggest high street banks in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis…
“Sky News has seen a letter sent last week by Ms Reeves to the chief executives of a quartet of Britain’s biggest banks…”
https://news.sky.com/story/reeves-open-minded-on-banks-push-for-ring-fencing-reform-13370856
“Germany Shifts Stance on Nuclear Power in EU Policy.
“Germany, which has been opposing for years EU attempts to treat nuclear power as a green electricity source on par with renewable energy, has dropped this opposition under new chancellor Friedrich Merz, which could make EU energy policy much easier to adopt.”
“Finland to use proceeds from frozen Russian assets to supply ammunition to Ukraine.
“Finland will supply 90 million euros ($101.35 million) of ammunition to Ukraine by using proceeds from Russian financial assets frozen by the European Union after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Finnish defence ministry said on Monday.”
“EU ministers seal fresh sanctions package against Russia…
“The package doubles the number of banned ships in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, the ill-maintained flock of oil and gas tankers that Moscow uses to circumvent a maximum oil price agreed on by the West.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ministers-seal-fresh-sanctions-package-against-russia/
“There is no Ukraine ceasefire. Ever…
“Putin likely believes that it isn’t just prolonged fighting that will win him most of his revanchist war aims in Ukraine, but he’ll be helped by interminable talks that wear down U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to hash out a peace deal.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-in-ukraine-ceasefire-russia-vladimir-putin-vladimir-medinsky/
“Philippines, US Hold First Joint Coast Guard Drills In South China Sea…
“The exercises come amid heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over contested claims in the South China Sea — a strategic waterway through which over $3 trillion worth of global trade flows annually.”
https://www.arise.tv/philippines-us-hold-first-joint-coast-guard-drills-in-south-china-sea/
“Taiwan seeks peace with China but must prepare for war, says President Lai…
“China has termed Mr Lai a “dangerous separatist” who will bring “war and decline” to the island which it claims as a breakaway province. China has also rejected Mr Lai’s multiple offers for talks to address the differences.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/taiwan-china-invasion-war-lai-ching-te-b2754377.html
“Uneasy India-Pakistan ceasefire holds but is a return to war inevitable?
“…There is a sense among analysts and diplomats that Delhi has not emerged from the conflict as triumphant as it had hoped, leaving little room for further de-escalation or political engagement.”
“Why India is boosting arms sales to Armenia amid Pakistan, Turkey tensions…
“…analysts view [it] as part of a broader effort to counter the growing strategic alignment between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan – a trilateral partnership that has challenged New Delhi’s regional interests and openly backed Islamabad in the wake of their recent cross-border flare-up.”
“A suicide car bomber struck a school bus in restive southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, killing at least four children and wounding 38 others…
“Balochistan has been the scene of a long-running insurgency, with an array of separatist groups staging attacks, including the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army…”
“Rubio says Syria could be weeks away from ‘full-scale civil war’…
“The top American diplomat blamed a resurgence of the Islamic State extremist group in areas outside of the transitional government’s control, as well as Iran… Rubio spoke after a series of bloody attacks on the Alawite and Druze minorities…”
“New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say…
“Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump, US officials said. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East…”
“Airstrikes kill dozens in Gaza, international criticism of Israel grows…
“The war, now in its 20th month, has left Gaza in ruins and its population facing a worsening hunger crisis. It has strained Israel’s relations with much of the world and those with its closest ally, the United States, now appear to be wavering.”
“Houthis announce ‘maritime blockade’ of Israel’s Haifa port…
““All companies with ships present in or heading to this port are hereby notified that, as of the time of this announcement, the aforementioned port has been included in the list of targets,” the group’s spokesman Yahya Saree said in a televised address.”
https://www.thearabweekly.com/houthis-announce-maritime-blockade-israels-haifa-port
“Sudan’s war is in a dangerous new phase – can its new prime minister provide a steer for civilians?
“The war has entered a dangerous aerial phase with any illusions of normalcy shattered by multi-day drone attacks on the wartime administrative centre Port Sudan and sanctuary cities across the northeast.”
“Libya: Dozens of unidentified bodies found in Tripoli.
“At least 58 bodies were found yesterday inside the morgue of the Accident Hospital in the Abu Selim district of the capital, an area that had been under the control of an armed group until the recent killing of its leader, Abdel Ghani Al-Kikli, also known as Gheniwa.”
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250520-libya-dozens-of-unidentified-bodies-found-in-tripoli/
“Port-au-Prince goes dark: Residents shut down Haiti’s main power plant to demand security.
“…residents shut down the Péligre hydroelectric plant to demand security. This action has plunged Port-au-Prince into near-total darkness amid mounting concerns about a fuel shortage, as gang threats obstruct access to Haiti’s main gas terminal.”
https://haitiantimes.com/2025/05/20/mirebalais-residents-halt-haiti-electricity-production/
“Maritime security deteriorating as piracy surges, warns UN chief.
“UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned on Tuesday that maritime security is deteriorating, with piracy and armed robbery at sea surging by nearly 50 per cent in early 2025, threatening international trade and stability.”
“UN faces deepening financial crisis, urges members to pay up.
“With a growing shortfall in contributions – $2.4 billion in unpaid regular budget dues and $2.7 billion in peacekeeping – the UN has been forced to cut spending, freeze hiring, and scale back some services.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/05/1163436
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ”Climate” thread.
Th adults really have a plan for us….
“Israel’s relations with much of the world and those with its closest ally, the United States, now appear to be wavering.”
Bull. The US, EU and NATO want this to happen regardless who is in government. It has nothing to do with the “Israel lobby” either. Though it does play a role in US/NATO there is no evidence that they are somehow forcing politicians to support Israel. They don’t need to because Israel and the West share the same broad, strategic goals in the region. Their role is standardizing the narrative of genocide in the west, not injecting it where it doesn’t belong…. because, unfortunately, it very much does.
The largest and most effective genocides are happening out of sight and mind, without requiring irrational and inefficient wastage of cheap surplus labor or expensive high tech armaments. Look at the supermarket shelves. I’ll say no more.
Jupiviv, this topic is about as emotive as they get, and I am not as well informed on it as I’d like to be.
FWIW, my impression is that Israel is becoming more isolated internationally. There were shouts of “genocide” in the House of Commons today, even though the Foreign Secretary himself stopped short of using that word. However, whether the growing disapproval of allies reins Israel in or fuels a sense of paranoia that turns it even more hawkish is an open question.
I have followed the story ever since the 1982 Sabra-Shatila Massacre, I still remember the horrific front-page newspaper cover photos. And was so upset & shocked, I had to find out the history for myself.
Being a Uni student at the time, and dropping to part-time as pregnant with my first baby, I had spare time to go to the biggest Oz library, when pre-google we had microfiche readers & card drawers and a student ID card allowing access..
This time around, I have forced myself to “bear witness” to the massacre of yet another indigenous population, and not turn away from the cruelty & horror, so on an almost daily basis, follow the sitreps.
I too, don’t buy into the “rift” story, between US-Israel, or even the far too little, far too late public hand-wringing of UK, EU etc. Just theatre to mitigate the masses increasing pushback, maybe too many people just keep showing up at Saturday rallies? They/We should have forgotten, shrugged and moved on by now.. In the MSM, particularly Israeli media, it’s just another Tuesday..it’s just ‘normal’. And expanding the carnage to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen etc is also ‘normal’ now too.
When I see countries pulling the arms trade, embargoes on Israeli oil supply etc.. maybe I’ll believe they do give a damn… Otherwise it’s just PR word-salad to me.
“Just theatre to mitigate the masses increasing pushback, maybe too many people just keep showing up at Saturday rallies?”
You may well be right, Rain. Although the UK has suspended trade talks with Israel, we are still sending weapons:
“A wide range of UK-made military goods and arms, including F-35 fighter jet parts, have continued to be sent to Israel even after the British government suspended 30 arms export licences in September, Israeli import data revealed in a report on Wednesday suggests.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-continuing-send-arms-israel-despite-ban-report
Simplicius makes an interesting case, though, that there is some substance to the rift:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-establishment-slowly-wearies
I like simplicious especially when he sticks to military strategy in Ukraine, but methinx he often gets West Asia wrong. The only argument for the ‘rift’ I find plausible,is that it is primarily internal inside Washington.
The Iran hawks, are simply crazy and obviously putting as much pressure on Trump as they can muster, along with Israel and it’s lobby, but going after Iran militarily is a disaster. Iran is strong enough to really seriously hurt the US, especially if it goes on for weeks or months..
The Pentagon, the military generals, are not suicidal – God help us, when the only block to war with Iran, is the generals! Hahahaha
The “compromise” I heard, was that the US will ‘distance’ itself diplomatically, play along with the ‘rift’, and Israel will appear to strike “alone”…
Which is impossible to do, there would have to be US ISR involvement with their satellite intelligence etc, as well as mid-air refuelling & supply runs etc etc. But that would be the public story .. and maybe like before, some back-channel chatter between US and Iran to arrange for a minor “symbolic” retaliation.
Iran, may or may not, choose to play along with this ruse again.
Then when Iran retaliates, cry oh poor little Izzy, victim of mean “unprovoked” Irani aggression, and drag the US in to help defend poor little Israel…
Still it’s dependent on the internal ‘rifts’ of the White House vs Pentagon .. hot heads vs slightly cooler heads…(Who at least know the reality of Iran’s military strength, and the actual reality of US military weakness, and supply shortfalls ..
3 years of giving Ukraine everything, plus daily airlifts of munitions to Israel for nrly 2 yrs .. inventory stores must be running low by now.. they sure are in Europe. The cupboards are getting more bare by the day.
Real life is reading more and more like the lyrics to a Napalm Death song every day. This sucks.
Kord, I know the band by name but have never listened to them – “English grindcore” Google tells me. Some sample lyrics:
“Born between chaos and hatred, a lottery of fate
We sit on the brink of extinction, the world lies in wait
Just a scratch on the surface of time that will wash away
We delude ourselves with the notion that we are here to stay”
https://genius.com/Napalm-death-on-the-brink-of-extinction-lyrics
I keep wondering with all the bs spun this week in the news how much are they covering up our collapse? I have been following this since 2008 crash and burn economic implosion and it only gets worse. All of pretty graphs of the arctic decline can only go so far until the salmon are no more and crab are gone but its not us running our that are killing us. They have not stopped producing any of chemicals or nuclear are still giving us cancer. Its now a national security concern with the declining birth rates. But its not like things are really sucks.
On climate, I would recommend the novel: *All the Water in the World*
All the Water in the World is told in the voice of a 13-year old girl Nonie, with a deep feeling for water. In the years after the glaciers melt, Nonie, her older sister and her parents and their scholar researcher friends stayed behind in an almost deserted New York City, creating a settlement on the roof of the American Museum of Natural History.
They hunt a lIttle and grow food in Central Park as they work to save the collections of human history and science. When a superstorm finally breaches the city’s ageing flood walls, Nonie and her family must escape north on the Hudson. They carry with them a book that holds their records of the lost collections.
Racing on the swollen river towards what may be safety, they encounter other communities that have adapted in very different and sometimes very frightening ways, to the new reality. But they are determined to find a way to make a new world that honors all they’ve saved.
Inspired by the stories of the curators and archivists in Iraq and the Siegel of Leningrad who worked to protect their stores of knowledge, antiquities and archives from war, All the Water in the World is both a meditation on what some of us might see as important enough to save from collapse, a coming-of-age story, and an adventure story—
with danger, storms, and a fight for survival. In the spirit of the Parable of the Sower, this wild journey offers the hope that what matters most – love, work, community and knowledge – will survive.
And some seed feel on contaminated soil that sprouted quickly but, gave no sustenance, because it was empty of life and yielded broken gain. Although it looked like food, it’s increase was not for abundance, for the kernels were only dust to be blown, which scattered death around it, so those who seen the produce wept for hunger and grieved for the earth, and the worldly gains of those who heard the stands rattling in the wind became bitter, so they tasted like ash. Therefore the seed did not strike to life, but blocked the heart from listening and wasted the light it was given and made those who seen it unable to turn form their apathy.
Gorgeous, Kadmon.