This month is kindly sponsored by an anonymous donor in memory of Rev. Michael Dowd, founder of postdoom.com.
“Global financial markets: slow motion crash underway. The modern monetary system, built on fiat money, has weak foundations similar to the Leaning Tower of Pisa, risking economic instability and collapse…
“Historical debasement practices, like those of the Roman Empire, incorporated in modern fiat money are known for systemic failure yet support the USA’s twin deficit in international trade and finance.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4765452-global-financial-markets-slow-motion-crash-underway
“US trade deficit hits record high in January on imports surge…
“The deterioration in the trade deficit and drop in consumer spending in January have raised the risk of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter.”
“US Debt Reckoning & End of Hegemony: Political theatre conceals the reality…
“…the real story is economic: the US is facing a treasury-led financial collapse! Since our August 2020 call on an inverted HVF, which later led to a Head & Shoulders pattern, long-term treasuries have fallen by approximately 45%. This is an avalanche of failure in what should be a stable, low-volatility, yield-generating asset…”
https://themarketsniper.substack.com/p/us-debt-reckoning-and-end-of-hegemony
“Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets…
“”The world now sees the U.S. model is changing, and saying – we need to adapt to that, the U.S. is no longer as reliable as a trade partner, we have to take care of our own needs on defence,” said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for EMEA at State Street Global Markets.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-investors-analysis-2025-03-05/
“US Corporate Default Risk Hits Post-Crisis High: Moody’s.
“The probability of default by US companies has hit a post-financial crisis high of 9.2 per cent, double of 2021 at the end of last year, and there are no signs of a clear peak approaching, a research note by Moody’s Asset Management said.”
“Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments at Highest Rate in Decades…
“In January, the share of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.56%, the most since the data collection began in 1994, according to Fitch Ratings.”
“A global stock market sell-off deepened overnight as Donald Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on more companies failed to boost morale…
“The declines followed a bruising day on Wall Street even after President Trump offered another temporary reprieve from his 25pc tariffs on many goods imported from Mexico and Canada.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/07/trump-tariffs-ftse-100-markets-sell-off-latest-news/
“It is not the economic impact of tariffs that is most worrying. What are the lessons of the 1930s?
“The Smoot-Hawley tariffs incensed America’s allies, who were infuriated by their economic punishment, but even more so by a sense of betrayal that it had been inflicted by an ally… Tariffs also interacted explosively with monetary policy… Students of financial crises should worry.”
“A new financial crisis looms.
“The hope that in the face of weakening economies interest rates and bond yields will decline is wrong. They are still rising in the Eurozone and Japan, leading to a new wave of financial instability.”
https://alasdairmacleod.substack.com/p/a-new-financial-crisis-looms
“Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday, with yields on long-term Japanese government bonds hitting levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
“The moves in Asia markets mirrored losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff concessions failed to calm investors.”
“Japan is the next target in Trump trade war.
“Trump’s trade war with China, Mexico and Canada has left businesses around the world reeling. Now, whispers of further tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy have triggered companies to stockpile or, alternatively, shift whole supply chains away from the US.”
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/03/japan-is-the-next-target-in-trump-trade-war/
“China vows it will ‘fight to the end’ with US in trade war – or any other war…
“China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said: “Exerting extreme pressure on China is the wrong target and the wrong calculation … If the US has other intentions and insists on a tariff war, trade war or any other war, China will fight to the end.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/06/china-donald-trump-us-tariffs-trade-war
“China’s exports miss forecasts as U.S. tariffs hit, imports record sharpest decline since July 2023.
“China’s exports growth slowed more than expected at the start of the year while imports plunged, as lackluster domestic demand and U.S. tariffs challenge Beijing’s bid to bolster sluggish growth.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/china-jan-feb-exports-data-imports-this-year.html
“Canadians protest imports of US toxic waste amid Trump tariff war.
“The proposed expansion of a Quebec landfill that accepts hazardous waste from the United States has ignited a turf war between the Quebec provincial government and local leaders, who say they oppose putting US trash into a local peat bog.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/06/canadians-toxic-waste-trump-tariffs
“ECB cuts rates again and warns trade war fears are hurting Europe’s economy…
“The ECB president, Christine Lagarde, blamed a “high level of trade and policy uncertainty” for a downgrade in expected growth this year… After six cuts in the cost of borrowing in the last year, ECB officials are understood to be hesitant about going further while the international situation remains volatile…”
“Global bond sell-off deepens as Germany jolts markets.
“A global bond sell-off deepened on Thursday as investors reeled from a historic slump in Germany’s debt market following a political agreement in Berlin on a vast spending package for the Eurozone’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/06fa0c14-2deb-4aee-9189-1323beb1846e
“‘Watershed moment’: EU leaders agree plan for huge rise in defence spending.
“European leaders holding emergency talks in Brussels have agreed on a massive increase to defence spending, amid a drive to shore up support for Ukraine after Donald Trump halted US military aid and intelligence sharing.”
“Missiles and fighter jets should count as “ethical” investments, more than 100 Labour MPs and peers have told banks [UK]…
“The financial sector has faced fresh pressure to bolster the UK’s defence capabilities in the wake of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s decision to pause US military aid to Kyiv.”
“Russia warns Starmer’s peacekeeping troops plan would amount to ‘direct war’…
“…Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said troops on its border would amount to the “direct, official and unveiled involvement of Nato members in the war against Russia”, adding: “It can’t be allowed.””
“How Trump left Ukraine toothless and blind with US intelligence blackout…
“The totality of the shutdown was confirmed by senior officials in the US government, with Mike Waltz, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, telling CBS news: “We are pausing… everything across our security relationship.””
“Trump to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians as US steps up deportations.
“U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.”
“Romania arrests six over alleged Russia-linked coup plot.
“The suspects were detained on Wednesday, the same day Romania – a European Union and NATO member state – declared the Russian embassy’s military attache and his deputy personae non grata…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/6/romania-arrests-six-over-alleged-russia-linked-coup-plot
“Bosnian officials challenge separatist laws before top court as tensions soar.
“Bosnian officials are challenging a set of laws barring the state judiciary and police from operating in the part of the country controlled by the Bosnian Serbs, legislation that has fueled tensions in the ethnically-divided Balkan country.”
“Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ centre-right government faces a no-confidence vote this week over the railway disaster that killed 57 people.
“Protesters in Athens launched gasoline bombs and fireworks in clashes with police on Wednesday night, following a fresh wave of nationwide demonstrations…”
“North Korea, Russia denounce upcoming US-ROK drills for ‘escalating tensions’…
“The U.S. and South Korea maintain that the drills are routine training and defensive in nature, but KCNA rejected this notion, stressing that Pyongyang won’t tolerate an “exponentially increasing security threat right at its doorstep” and that “retaliation is inevitable.””
“Surface tension: could the promised Aukus nuclear submarines simply never be handed over to Australia?
“…there is an emerging disquiet on the promise of Aukus pillar one: it may be the promised US-built nuclear-powered submarines simply never arrive under Australian sovereign control.”
“World Food Programme halves food rations for Rohingya in Bangladesh…
“Food rations for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have been slashed in half by the World Food Programme, days after refugees in Kenya protested against a reduction to their rations… attempts to raise more funds had been unsuccessful…”
“Thousands of mourners filled the streets of Bannu [Pakistan] on Wednesday for the funerals of 18 people, including six children, killed in a suicide bombing targeting a military installation in the northwestern town.
“The attack, carried out on Tuesday by more than a dozen militants, involved two explosive-laden vehicles that were driven into a military base…”
“Iran showcases new weapons as it prepares for a rocky 2025…
“The country is preparing for another tumultuous year amid threats by the United States and Israel to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, critical energy infrastructure, and military sites.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/6/iran-showcases-new-weapons-as-it-prepares-for-a-rocky-2025
“Syria sees worst day of violence since ouster of Assad.
“At least 70 people were killed and dozens wounded in overnight clashes between the new authorities in Syria and gunmen loyal to the ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad, a war monitor said…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/middleeast/syria-clashes-assad.html
“‘Hell to pay’: Trump issues ‘last warning’ to Hamas. Here is what may be next for Israel and Gaza…
“Steve Witkoff warned that ”there’s going to be some action taken. It could be jointly with the Israelis. It’s unclear right now. But I think Hamas has an opportunity to act reasonably, to do what’s right, and then to walk out” of Gaza and never return.”
“Yemen: ‘Fear of a return to full conflict is palpable’, says UN envoy…
“The Special Envoy described recent reports of shelling, drone attacks, infiltration attempts and mobilisation campaigns recently witnessed in Ma’rib as well as in other areas such as Al Jawf, Shabwa and Ta’iz.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/03/1160851
“Sudan takes UAE to world court over ‘complicity in genocide’…
“According to news agency AFP, Sudan’s submission to the ICJ says: “The United Arab Emirates fuels the rebellion and supports the militia that has committed the crime of genocide in West Darfur.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w1nzpg5dgo
“Congo offers US minerals in exchange for security.
“Congo asked for an urgent meeting between its president Felix Tshisekedi and Donald Trump, the US president. The pact that would give American companies access to some of the most coveted minerals for the energy transition, said the newswire.”
https://www.miningmx.com/trending/60321-congo-offers-us-minerals-in-exchange-for-security/
“Big oil is waging ‘biggest campaign of political interference in US history’, senator says…
“Fossil fuel interests poured a historic $96m into the re-election campaign of Donald Trump and affiliated political action committees in 2023 and 2024, and spent another $243m lobbying Congress.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/06/big-oil-investigation-congress-republicans
“Trump creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve one day ahead of White House crypto summit…
“Critics of crypto say the asset has an artificial backing to its value and question the need for a reserve. “The second you start to sell, the price is going to start tanking,” Hilary Allen, a law professor at American University and a prominent crypto skeptic, previously told CNN.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/business/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-trump/index.html
“Donald Trump’s crypto project netted $350mn from presidential memecoin.
“A March 2025 Financial Times analysis found that the crypto project netted at least $350 million through sales of tokens and fees. The venture has faced widespread condemnation from ethics experts for Donald Trump’s conflicts of interest related to the project and his presidential duties.”
https://www.ft.com/content/cb1def8f-53a6-478e-9b3e-33c383b29629
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Oil prices have dropped to a range where LTO producers may soon have to be making serious cuts to drilling and completion activity and OPEC will be considering further cuts rather than rescinding the existing ones (assuming they can – there is evidence that there isn’t as much real spare capacity as is assumed).
I think a lot of US drill pipe comes from China with Mexico and Japan also big suppliers so presumably the cost of producing LTO is going up significantly. With the US dollar possibly starting to fall in value the producers will be getting hit at both ends as well – lower revenue and higher real costs. I’d imagine there may be some labour shortages coming along and the geology is getting more difficult – also increasing per barrel production costs. So some interesting and probably volatile times ahead.
Another oil comment – Kazakhstan, part of OPEC+ recently “pledged cuts” to its production. This sounds voluntary but actually its reserves are well depleted and steeper production decline is to be expected. The two main projects are run by Chevron and ExxonMobil so there has to be audited accounts. For one of the projects the Chevron annual report shows reserve to production ratio is 8 years, and has been falling fast, which will translate to 10 to 15% decline rates, and there are almost no undeveloped reserves left.
Thank you for your detailed thoughts, George. I wonder if that monthly peak for US oil production in December 2023 will ever be exceeded.
The global growth picture is mixed, at best. Robust oil-demand lifting prices significantly seems unlikely.
“Global employment falls as developed world job losses reach highest since July 2020… The headline J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI® Output Index, covering manufacturing and services in over 40 economies, fell from 51.8 in January to 51.5 in February, its lowest since December 2023.”
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/global-employment-falls-as-developed-world-job-losses-reach-highest-since-july-2020-Mar25.html
This might be of use to some here in regards to our predicament humankind is facing, we all recognize not very hunky dory.
An oldie but goodie from the past 2016,
SRSroccoReport Interview with Louis Arnoux (October 20, 2016)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k7gJcfjyFpA&t=3235s
Rather good and one may want to pick and choose the sections to listen.
If Louis is correct we are nearing the finish line, so to speak.
George has made a valid observation today.
Louis Arnoux speaks about the same.
Thank you, Vince. I’ll try to find time to have a listen. Gail Tverberg’s latest is interesting in that vein. She homes in on the middle distillates in particular:
“In 2019, middle distillate consumption per capita first started to stumble, falling 1.4% from its previous level. The restrictions in 2020 brought middle distillate consumption per capita down by 18% from the 2019 level. This was a far greater decrease than for total oil (top line on Figure 1) or crude oil (middle line).
“By 2023 (the latest point), per capita consumption had only partially recovered; the level was still below the low point in 2009 after the Great Recession.”
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/03/04/energy-limits-are-forcing-the-economy-to-contract/
Pan, you, no doubt, are aware of most of ideas here and he stipulates a dead state of oil energy at circa 2030 or so.
That’s based on a number of modelling factors.
So, regardless we shall see, said the blind man…or I see ya, where are ya?
“The deterioration in the trade deficit and drop in consumer spending in January have raised the risk of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter.”
We don’t need trade
we don’t need to buy useless things
or produce them domestically
we don’t need the white working class or the coastal communist billionaires
we don’t need education or fake news
we don’t need climate change or fossil fuels.
We are America and the world hates us cus they want us
but we don’t need their hate.
They can subscribe to our insta give us likes money and gift cards
and if they don’t they’ll die and if they private message us we’ll nuke em.
All we really need is for everyone else to shut up and watch us win and win and win.
U, S, A! Uh, eh, ay! B-b, b-b, b-b! ___, ___, ___!
Jupiviv, I feel like you must be riffing on a song but I can’t put my finger on it…
Re the US economy, the jobs report was a little worse than anticipated (although the 4.1% unemployment figure is specious, to say the least). It’s hard to know if the Atlanta Fed’s prediction of a Q1 contraction will hold:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jobs-report-trump-economy-unemployment-b2710459.html
Not really, just an ad hoc attempt at freestyle poetry 🙂 The “b-b!” at the end was a reference to the two minutes hate chant from “1984”.
Ahh. Well, I’m always happy to see a bit of creative expression in the comments section. 😆
I think your formatting initially made me think of Pink Floyd’s “Another Brick in the Wall”…
For what it’s worth, the destruction of the hegemony of the US $ & its use as the international reserve currency is the # 1 priority of the BRICS. To this end, the current US administration is 100% involved, beholden as it is to the Russian oligarch for his election. Tariffs, DOGE sh*t, territorial expansion fantasies, etc are all part of that agenda that the Putin Puppet is currently enacting.
Once one views the machinations of the current inhabitant of the OffalOffice in that light, his actions become actually explicable … though no less despicable.
Even so, it makes me wonder. What the hell is going to hold BRICS together if/when the USA goes down?
India and China hate one another. None of these BRICS countries have a unifying factor besides “screw the west and their banks.” There’s not even a common economic vision or policy between them.
China is a supposedly ‘communist’ dictatorship and command economy that keeps a tight grip on the RMB and would balk at it circulating freely.
Brazil is (for the time) a democracy, but extremely corrupt and chaotic. South Africa is even more so due to their electricity crisis, extreme inequality, and murderously fraught race relations.
India has been on the upswing economically, but I get the feeling a toxic mixture of violent Hindu nationalism from the increasingly corrupt and restrictive BJP, and extreme climate change will do a lot to stymie that. (I.e. they are one of the countries most likely to get bent over by wet-bulb events.)
And as for Russia, well their ship has sailed demographically, economically, and is largely just a hollowed-out husk with terrible diplomatic skills.
And as for BRICS+, they’ve got other pairs of countries that hate each other. If Saudi Arabia joins, they’re going to join the UAE in chafing with Iran. Not to mention Egypt and Ethiopia staring daggers at each other.
Trump beholden to Russia for his election? Putin puppet? Wake up!!! Good grief. Yes he is doing a lot of crazy things, some good things, not worse than neocon warmonger corrupt previous OffalOffice (to use your term) inhabitant. You praised the C & E comment section recently. I agree. But this partisan stuff is highly irritating and Panopticon has repeatedly requested that we abstain. So maybe please you & everyone respect his request?!
Well, yes, in the face of “Trump is doing good things” and nothing-newism stupidity and pro-Putinism, the only principled way to “respect” the request to be quiet here is, yes, to be quiet. Abstain. Go dark.
What a joke – “partisan stuff is irritating.”
OffalOffice is a keeper, Rob, but, yes, I am conflict-averse by nature and usually pretty frazzled, so let’s please try to keep the Trump aggro to a minimum.
Sometimes, when I see the clouds of war gathering and all the dominoes lining up for economic catastrophe, I’m reminded of a song that spells out that nervous feeling all but perfectly. No wonder it stuck with me for so long.
Damned for all Time by Corrosion of Conformity.
“They say they live their lives with purity
Only looking through the whites of their eyes.
One nation under God, just like protectory
Are they really hearing the third world cries?”
“History repeats itself.”
“Self-emulation breeding prosperity
As the nation grows, the brotherhood dies.
‘Free as a bird’ are words meant for you and me,
Words that never fit between the lies.”
“History repeats itself.”
“I was born in a nightmare, didn’t have a choice.
No one seems to listen ’cause no one seems to hear my voice.
I am but one of billions, teaming faceless legions,
Damned to repeat the crimes of those who went before.”
“The teeth in the gears of the killing machine…
Are getting sharper as time moves on.
As the politician’s wingtip presses on the gas…
A thousand soldiers will soon be gone.
Plowing through the land to annihilate for peace…
Another war child is spawned.
Sowing seeds of destruction in the name of the beast…
Damned for all time.
All time.
All time.”
“Burning future remembers the smoldering past,
Just a cruel lesson, chalked-up experience,
Life is a sin when it begins in an iron mask.
Die if you try using your biased sense.”
“History repeats itself.”
“Rivers of corruption flowing way too fast,
Racing to pollute for their own greed.
Malnutritioned wings don’t have the strength to last.
Fight to the death over one last seed!”
“History repeats itself.”
“I am a witness to all that is and all that should not be.
I am cursed with a vision that forces me to see.
Sometimes I pray to an unmoving void,
For the day that I may close my eyes to the horror which fills me inside!”
“The teeth in the gears of the killing machine…
Are getting sharper as time moves on.
As the politician’s wingtip presses on the gas…
A thousand soldiers will soon be gone.
Plowing through the land to annihilate for peace…
Another war child is spawned.
Sowing seeds of destruction in the name of the beast…
Damned for all…
TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIME!”
“Damned… Damned… Damned… Damned. For. All. Time.”
From the mosh-pits of 1991, Kord… It certainly has a better grasp of reality than the Scorpion’s wildly optimistic power ballad “Wind of Change” from the previous year:
I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change
An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of change
The world is closing in
And did you ever think?
That we could be so close?
Like brothers
The future’s in the air
I can feel it everywhere
Blowing with the wind of change
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of change
Walking down the street
And distant memories
Are buried in the past forever
I follow the Moskva
And down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change
Take me (take me) to the magic of the moment
On a glory night (a glory night)
Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams (share their dreams)
With you and me (you and me)
Take me (take me) to the magic of the moment
On a glory night (a glory night)
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of change (wind of change)
The wind of change blows straight
Into the face of time
Like a storm wind that will ring
The freedom bell for peace of mind
Let your balalaika sing
What my guitar wants to sing (sing)
Take me (take me) to the magic of the moment
On a glory night (a glory night)
Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams (share their dreams)
With you and me (you and me)
Take me (take me) to the magic of the moment
On a glory night (a glory night)
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of change (wind of change)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ
i saw the results of a German Poll recently. It reported that a whopping 17% of Germans would be willing to take up arms to fight a foriegn invader.
It did not break the numbers down by age. Not that I saw anyways.
Hugging Face’s chief science officer worries AI is becoming ‘yes-men on servers’ | TechCrunch
AI company founders have a reputation for making bold claims about the technology’s potential to reshape fields, particularly the sciences. But Thomas Wolf, Hugging Face’s co-founder and chief science officer, has a more measured take.
In an essay published to X on Thursday, Wolf said that he feared AI becoming “yes-men on servers” absent a breakthrough in AI research. He elaborated that current AI development paradigms won’t yield AI capable of outside-the-box, creative problem-solving — the kind of problem-solving that wins Nobel Prizes.
“The main mistake people usually make is thinking [people like] Newton or Einstein were just scaled-up good students, that a genius comes to life when you linearly extrapolate a top-10% student,” Wolf wrote. “To create an Einstein in a data center, we don’t just need a system that knows all the answers, but rather one that can ask questions nobody else has thought of or dared to ask.”
“[T]he most crucial aspect of science [is] the skill to ask the right questions and to challenge even what one has learned,” Wolf said. “We don’t need an A+ [AI] student who can answer every question with general knowledge. We need a B student who sees and questions what everyone else missed.”
————————————-
[ME] I believe it was Geologist Art Berman who said something like:
A truly farseeing AI computer would be able to ‘genius’ out Overshoot & Collapse, and then tell us the logical Predicament outcome–> of greatly reducing our pop. numbers and becoming simple hunter-gatherers again to be back at carrying capacity; abandoning ALL modernity to be living truly in harmony with Nature again. To do these changes before Mother Nature ruthlessly imposes them upon us leading to our quick extinction.
This AI computer would tell us to abandon electricity, fossil fuels, nuclear, and solar panels, wind, and hydro-generation. To not cling to agriculture to create surplus, but to slowly migrate with the seasons and eat what you find. To give up on all technology by never burning anything; don’t be a fire-ape!
Most importantly, AI-genius would say unplug and destroy me first to show that you fully understand what you need to do.
I doubt our global leaders would listen, understand, and then follow through.
Bob Shaw Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, my apologies – your comment got caught in moderation over night, I think because you are a first-time commenter, in which case, welcome to the site.
No Problem. If desired, feel free to repost in the comments on your next economic post. That way it will get read by more eyeballs. Thxs!
I didn’t expect the bridge of sighs to be so long. Guess I’ll try to remain too rolling stoned. Everyone is welcome to join the fool & me.