“War and the Global Economy: Rising Debt, Policy Failures, and the Fear of Conflict in 2025.
“The global economy in 2025 is at a breaking point. Unprecedented national debts, failed economic policies, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts are driving nations into financial distress… The real global threat is not war, but financial collapse. Economic policies of the last decade have failed to create sustainable growth…“
“Trump’s ‘big stick diplomacy’ won’t go far in today’s world system…
“Maintaining a dominant military presence around the world, as the US has done for decades, is an expensive proposition and when financing it is dependent largely upon borrowing, the indebted country’s hold on the big stick can easily become weaker.”
“The real reason Trump is waging a global trade war. The US president’s bombardment of tariff threats disguises an essential fact: America needs cash…
“America’s public finances are shot. The deficit is the highest since at least 1975 outside of a crisis period. Debt is on track to grow at double the rate of the economy in the decades ahead. And against this backdrop, Trump has promised tax cuts…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/16/real-reason-trump-is-waging-a-global-trade-war/
“Forget Trump’s tariffs, the president’s bond market threat is worse…
“…just entertain for a moment the idea that a US administration might decide it could unilaterally default on even a small portion of its debts. The result would be catastrophic.”
“Trump’s trade war could spiral into a debt war that sends interest rates soaring, former White House official warns.
“…another way governments could retaliate is by selling their stockpiles of US debt, as Treasury bonds are a bedrock holding in global financial markets and are widely held around the world.”
https://fortune.com/2025/02/15/trump-trade-war-debt-treasury-market-interest-rates-dedollarization/
“The Monetary System Paradox. Financial systems collapse in unexpected ways. Not from obvious flaws, but from the very mechanisms designed to protect them…
“Seemingly stable systems can destabilize each other through subtle interactions, much as competing currencies create pressures that neither would generate alone… The 2008 repo market collapse illustrates how quickly stabilizing mechanisms can become destabilizing forces.”
https://substack.com/home/post/p-151087406
“Soaring gold becomes top ‘Trump trade’.
“Gold has become the best performing “Trump trade” in recent weeks, outperforming other major asset classes since the US President’s inauguration, as fears of a trade war and a potential hit to global growth fuel demand for the haven metal.”
https://www.ft.com/content/fb53df86-c6f0-4550-ab84-222b3a6282f4
“At least 48 people have been killed in the collapse of an illegally operated goldmine in western Mali, authorities and local sources have said.
“Mali is one of Africa’s leading gold producers, and mining sites are regularly the scene of deadly landslides and accidents.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/at-least-48-people-killed-in-mali-goldmine-collapse
“Protesters target Tesla showrooms over Elon Musk’s cost-cutting…
“What began with Tesla owners slapping bumper stickers on their cars saying “I bought this before Elon went crazy” has grown to activists projecting an image of Musk making a gesture many have likened to a Nazi salute on to Tesla’s factory in Berlin.”
https://www.ft.com/content/69129b95-d8f9-4dc9-87fb-5d5a7892d320
“The US government is trying to rehire nuclear safety employees it had fired on Thursday, after concerns grew that their dismissal could jeopardise national security, US media reported…
“The department is responsible for with designing, building and overseeing the US nuclear weapons stockpile.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g3nrx1dq5o
“US and European energy groups at risk from uranium supply crunch…
“The threat of future shortages comes as the world’s biggest producer of the metal used to power nuclear reactors, Kazakhstan, sells more to Russia and China while less is going to the US and Europe.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d0faf091-50b4-4878-ae08-ea6dc07db993
“The true extent of the energy crisis across Scottish communities…
“Our energy markets are broken and people across Scotland are still living with constant dread around how to pay to keep their homes warm and the lights on.”
“Rachel Reeves has three options to dodge an economic crisis and all are unthinkable [UK].
“As her £9.9bn of headroom evaporates, chancellor will have to raise taxes, cut spending or break ‘iron-clad’ fiscal rules… Growth has stalled… Government ministers roll their eyes in desperation when asked what Reeves can do.”
“Europe’s perfect storm: Trade wars, energy shortages, and political chaos.
“When it rains, it pours—but right now, Europe is getting hit by a full-blown hurricane. The continent, already infamous for its bureaucratic sluggishness and fractured leadership, now finds itself at the epicenter of a geopolitical and economic firestorm.”
“Thousands mark Statehood Day of Serbia with anticorruption protest…
“The increasing pressure being applied by the university student-led movement has already forced the resignation of several high-ranking officials, including Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, at the end of January.”
“Fixing Germany’s economy is a critical task for the country’s next government…
“Germany needs a new business model… The nation that became known for the quality of its products has not seen real economic growth for five years.“
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-china-ceo-russia-europe-b2699329.html
“Deadly Austria stabbing was ‘Islamist attack’, interior minister says…
“”I am afraid for my children. I am afraid for those around me. I fear for the future. I fear where this will lead. I am endlessly sad,” local resident Tanja Planinschek told AFP at the site.”
“Angry farmers push Poland away from Ukraine…
“After three years of war, the public mood is souring over economic sacrifices made for Kyiv, and sympathy for the farmers is playing a significant role in that shift.”
“Zelenskyy waves away first US bid for critical minerals…
“The Ukrainian president said that a draft deal – presented in Kyiv last week by the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent – did not yet contain the security provisions Kyiv needed.”
“Saudi Arabia to host US-Russia talks on Ukraine, as UK says it’s ‘ready and willing’ to put troops on ground.
“A Ukrainian official said they would not be present at the talks though Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy, discussed a “dual track” set of negotiations and will be in Kyiv this week.”
“Seoul blasts North Korea’s ‘inhumane’ demolition of family reunion centre.
“For decades, the Mount Kumgang Reunion Center hosted tearful reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War. Pyongyang’s unilateral demolition of the facility was an “inhumane act” that “tramples” on the hopes of separated families, South Korean authorities said on Thursday.”
“Taliban in crisis as leadership splits over women’s rights…
“Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, the country’s supreme leader, is battling a rebellion from senior cabinet ministers over his ban on girls’ education and restrictions on women’s economic participation.”
“Pakistan clashes result in 4 dead soldiers, 15 militants…
“A military statement said the deadly violence erupted when its forces carried out “intelligence-based” raids on militant locations in Dera Ismail Khan and North Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-clashes-result-in-4-dead-soldiers-15-militants/7976188.html
“Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to “finish the job” against Iran with the support of US President Donald Trump.
“Netanyahu was speaking alongside US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is visiting Israel in his first official trip to the region since assuming the role.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/16/middleeast/heavy-bombs-israel-rubio-visit-intl/index.html
“The US military said on Sunday that it killed a senior official of an al Qaeda affiliate during an airstrike in northwest Syria the day before.
“US Central Command described the person in a statement as a “senior finance and logistics official in the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din”.”
“Hizbollah supporters protest in Lebanon as tensions rise over Iran flights.
“The Lebanese army has fired tear gas at supporters of Hizbollah protesting against an Iranian flight being barred from landing in Beirut, as tensions increased between the government and the Shia militant group.”
https://www.ft.com/content/73cea441-9d9c-446d-8c84-6f81a3beed05
“Hezbollah chief says Israel must fully withdraw from Lebanon by February 18.
“The head of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said on Sunday that Israeli troops must withdraw from Lebanese territory in full by a February 18 deadline, saying it had “no pretext” to maintain a military presence in any post in southern Lebanon.”
“US backs Israeli goal of ‘eradicating’ Hamas in Gaza.
“US secretary of state Marco Rubio has backed Israel’s goal of “eradicating” Hamas in Gaza, throwing into doubt Washington’s commitment to a fragile ceasefire deal it helped broker last month.”
https://www.ft.com/content/cc7bce65-a3ad-408a-830d-13dfa155472d
“Young, old, refugees and returnees: thousands fleeing violence cross border into South Sudan…
“The world’s youngest country is facing the most severe humanitarian crisis in the world as thousands of displaced people continue to cross the border into South Sudan’s Upper Nile state at the Joda border…”
“M23 seize key city amid mounting fears of DR Congo breakup.
“Columns of M23 fighters allied with Rwandan troops on Sunday entered the centre of another key city, Bukavu, in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo as the African Union highlighted growing fears that the strife-torn country could break up.”
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/m23-seize-key-city-amid-161839269.html
“Farmer-herder tensions ignite across Africa…
“…there are two regions where conflicts between pastoralists and farmers have become particularly frequent and intense: the Sahel area of West Africa, and the Horn of Africa in the continent’s east.”
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/farmer-herder-tensions-ignite-africa/
“Widespread ecological damage from oil spills in Niger Delta revealed in international study…
“…since extraction and processing of oil started in the 1950s, the level of pollution is estimated to be equivalent to more than 13 million barrels of crude oil, causing enormous damage to the environment and posing severe health threats to the people who live in the region.”
“Argentina’s President Milei faces impeachment calls after promoting cryptocurrency.
“Argentine President Javier Milei is facing calls for impeachment after promoting a little-known cryptocurrency, whose price soared then collapsed after his endorsement, leading to losses for thousands of investors.”
“The human mind is in a recession…
“Technology strains our brain health, capacity and skills… Illnesses that affect brain function — including mental health conditions, substance abuse and neurological disorders — are estimated to cost the global economy $5tn per year (roughly the size of the German economy in nominal terms today). That’s expected to rise to $16tn by 2030.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c288abc6-24a4-4062-aeb4-05c463ae7289
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
At least it’s not in a Great Depression, yet.
You wonder if today’s financial system could actually endure that kind of global economic contraction without seizing up entirely. Central banks have a much depleted arsenal versus 2008/9.
I’ve been reading about the HANDY model, which is a pretty simple extension of predator-prey models to human population growth and use of resources. It shows that heterogenous, modularised systems (definitely not our global financial and supply chain system) tend to decline gradually, whereas homogenous, interconnected systems (us) can maintain BAU in the face of disruptions until they suddenly can’t – and then they collapse. For civilisations that have had slow growth (e.g. Maya) the collapse wears out the peasants but leaves the environment in a decent state to recover. If there’s been rapid growth (a lot of ancient middle eastern civilisations) the environment gets destroyed first (e.g. desertification) and doesn’t recover.
The collapse is much worse and unavoidable for inegalitarian societies with a wide gulf between elites and others. Not really news to most here I expect.
George, I found this study but the maths is above my pay-grade, alas:
“A HANDY-type model with non renewable resources… The model has led to concerning conclusions about the future of human society, suggesting that overexploitation of natural resources, combined with strong inequalities in wealth distribution, could lead to societal collapse.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1468121824000117
This is incredible news. Where is Musk on this one? We need to steal the blueprints yesterday! We cannot allow a Microsonic gap!
https://lionherald.com/controversial-zimbabwean-inventor-sangulani-maxwell-chikumbutso-finally-unveils-groundbreaking-fuel-free-car-alongside-president-emmerson-mnangagwa/
“Early this week, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa officially launched two vehicles model and one motorcycle that are said to be powered by a revolutionary energy source—one that defies conventional physics, a technology of zimbabwean company Saith Technologies. The mastermind behind this invention, 44-year-old Sungulani Chikumbuso, claims his technology eliminates the need for fuel or batteries, harnessing power from radio frequencies instead.
“The vehicle uses what we call a Microsonic Energy Device,” Chikumbuso explained. “It harnesses radio frequencies, converts them into energy, and powers the car’s electric motor.”
This remarkable claim challenges established scientific principles, particularly the first law of thermodynamics, which states that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed. Chikumbuso acknowledges that his invention has faced skepticism, even being denied a patent on the basis that it “violates natural laws of physics.”
However, rather than abandon his project, he chose to protect it as a trade secret, ensuring its continued development without the need for patent approval.”
“Further investigation by PRNigeria revealed that Hopewell Rugoho-Chin’ono, an award-winning Zimbabwean journalist and fellow at Harvard… conducted a reverse image search on Chikumbutso’s supposed hypersonic device and found that it was being sold on Amazon for $109.”
https://prnigeria.com/2025/02/03/zimbabwean-fuel-free-car/
You have to admire the barefaced audacity. 😂
Hello Pan
Well, Tesla and Musk were a ‘fire’ that seemed unbeatable.
But things can change. That is happening very quickly at the moment with the ‘brand name’ and the electric car for the ‘conscious, highly educated’ and often progressive buyers. You could show off with it in certain ‘circles’.
That is over… it is similar to the fall of Nokia and Tesla has comparable but also now once again typical ‘Musk’ problems 🙂
About 15 years ago I was involved in a programme about Nokia, then the undisputed leader of the smartphone market. But that was quickly over. Nokia was once the undisputed king of mobile telephony. The brand had a cast-iron reputation, a technological edge and a market share that seemed unassailable. But when the world changed – and Nokia ignored that change – the house of cards came tumbling down. Within a few years, the iconic brand had been wiped out by Apple and Android.
Tesla now seems to be on a similar path. Like Nokia, the company was a pioneer, a visionary in its market. But technological advantage is fleeting. Chinese brands such as BYD and Nio are launching electric cars that equal or even surpass Tesla’s range, price and innovations. Just like Nokia back in the day, Tesla is in danger of clinging to an outdated idea of its own indispensability.
But the problem runs deeper. Nokia’s downfall was not only caused by technological backwardness, but also by arrogance and mismanagement. The Finnish company thought its name was enough to maintain market share. Tesla is in danger of making the same mistake.
And then there is Musk himself, once the charismatic figurehead of innovation, who has become a polarising figure who spends more time on Twitter/X and politics than on his company. His statements and extreme right-wing provocations in Europe too are repelling a large number of the original Tesla buyers – progressive, environmentally conscious tech enthusiasts.
When owners start apologising with bumper stickers to apologise for their ‘progressive’ purchase and the second-hand market for Teslas has completely collapsed, well then you know.
Damage to image is deadly. Nokia was loved for years, but at a certain point people just didn’t want a Nokia anymore. Tesla is threatening to suffer the same fate. Sales figures are plummeting in Europe: a drop of 75% in Spain, 63% in France and 60% in Germany. Europe was one of Tesla’s most important markets, and a collapse there could throw the entire company into crisis.
What’s more, the market is changing rapidly. Where Apple reinvented the mobile phone with a touchscreen and apps, competitors are now producing electric cars that are cheaper, more innovative and more efficient than Tesla’s outdated Model 3 and Model Y. While the competition is forging ahead, Tesla is clinging to a product line that is becoming less and less innovative.
Tesla was already partly dependent on the ever-increasing value of their shares, not to mention ‘greenwashing’. They have made billions from this.
I wonder how quickly things will go downhill for Tesla….
“Tesla is in danger of clinging to an outdated idea of its own indispensability.”
Calling it outdated assumes the idea was actually relevant at some point. Outside of the coordinated asset price orgy known as the stock market, it was not. The personal EV is, on its face, a shockingly bad idea. For several reasons.
Zip, thank you for your thoughts. The Elon Musk of 2025 does not seem a very compatible figurehead for a brand that trades on protecting the environment, and I can well imagine him turning off buyers.
Having his hands on America’s levers of power looks like it will be helpful for Tesla, though (and X and SpaceX):
“Elon Musk has long railed against the U.S. government, saying a crushing number of federal investigations and safety programs have stymied Tesla, his electric car company, and its efforts to create fleets of robotaxis and other self-driving automobiles.
“Now, Musk’s close relationship with President Donald Trump means many of those federal headaches could vanish within weeks or months.”
https://japantoday.com/category/business/how-elon-musk%27s-crusade-against-government-could-benefit-tesla
https://youtu.be/QKIgNrd6vM8?si=zeySAqP2Q7x1ZnZk
Talk about a mess their firing of federal employees may effect the power situation here in the pnw! They are going to collapse things faster than did with the lockdowns. Their own policies are collapsing the system.
They’re just testing the waters. The “useful” federal workers will be hired back, that is to say useful for the purposes of the wealthiest 20-40% of households. Not the peasants. Gonna go back to the good old. Except we won’t. These are just preparatory drills for mass scale crackdowns on the coming waves of revolutionary “madness” (and not merely “dissent” aka protests and holding up signs) which would inevitably accompany the impending conflagration of multi-dimensional collapse. The princes of the world may not conceptualize it as we do but they have a rough idea what’s coming. Trump is just a brand name.
I imagine having the Northwest electrical grid functioning properly would be useful for pretty much 100% of households in that region, Jupiviv.
“The employees taking the buyout include linemen, engineers, substation operators and power dispatchers — positions that take years of apprenticeship to learn.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bonneville-power-staff-departures-under-134545267.html
Also add in that the Bonneville dam is 87 years old. An aging infrastructure and budget cuts and cut in personnel is setting the system up for collapse.
If that risk does materialize they’ll just be hired back under a worse contract. That is likely the point of all this. Tiered employment coming home to roost.
BPA is a non-profit costing the taxpayer NOTHING. The intention is to make it non-functioning so it can be privatized. A hostile private take over of a public utility. Why are us Americans allowing this? There is concern that if we protest martial law will be imposed.
This must be a peaceable kingdom here in the C&E comments section as decreed by its proprietor Pan-O, but Mr. “Just Testing the Waters” might listen to what X-KAE (or is it TVC-15) told the ex-casino owner in the older gentleman’s stolen office:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFDWsRRH1nw
Beautiful! From the mouths of babes…
Before we get all sobersided and flatlining about our world here, a fine excerpt from a new book appeared in Opinion section of the New York Times: “Everything You’ve Ever Thrown Away is Likely Still Out There,” by Alexander Clapp.
“If only the story had ended there (note: after the 1992 Basel Convention to end what Daniel arop Moi called “garbage imperialism.”). Despite that legislative success, the poorer nations of the world have never stopped being receptacles for the West’s ever proliferating rubbish.”
“Your discarded clothes? They may go to a desert in Chile The last cruise ship you boarded? Hacked to pieces in Bangladesh. Your depleted car battery? Stacked in a warehouse in Mexico.”
“Western waste – toothpaste tubes from California, shopping bags from the Netherlands, deodorant sticks from Australia – stacked knee deep (note: in the Java highlands) as far as the eye can see. Too voluminous to even attempt to recycle, it is used as fuel in scores of bakeries that supply Java’s street markets with tofu, a culinary staple. The result is some of the most lethal cuisine imaginable, with poisons from incinerated Western plastic ingested hourly by great numbers of Indonesians.”
To the craven conservative apologists who are not even slightly tempted to slap a “like” on this deep poetic excerpt, fine, but remember that X-KAE meant what he said, and he’s coming for you:
” I want you… to… shush … your…mouth.”
“
I didn’t look at your link, Martin, but the trash info is for sure highly relevant. Superb doom fodder.
You are right, Kali.
I violated my own anti-link ordinance in that comment, which is funny on a site of expertly curated links…
We all know how to click here, click there.
Nobody is suffering from a disease of not clicking enough, which is why my click rate on suggestions here at C&E is probably under 10 percent.
I consciously typed out those waste world passages (even though I am a terrible typist, which also might be a blessing in disguise.)
Here’s a link to a cat video I think you will like: just kidding.
Martial law is coming any day now, which could have the benefit of stopping too much commenting.
Think I’m tin-foiling this? Actual threats to lock up AOC and erase critics’ social security work history are real topics elsewhere, in links that anybody can find…
“… expertly curated links.”
Thank you for the compliment, Martin. Cute cat videos are actually welcome. Dog rescues even more so.
Re martial law, nothing would surprise me. I came across this thought-provoking quote on X the other day:
“The United States has become the largest source of geopolitical uncertainty in the world. It’s an extraordinary development.”
https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1891569107889262593
Not that it matters, but found this of interest. Seems China some time ago concentrated on EVs, realizing it would never have a leap jump on ICE cars.
Well, it paid off
BYD says it will begin using solid-state batteries in electric cars in 2027
The Electric Viking
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RvrtEb7r0yQ&t=334s
Crazy news..not that half of the energy for an automobile is in its manufacturing, but still , impressive
To Americans – Are you better off today than you were from the First Day economic miracles on Inauguration day? Don’t worry the good times trickle down will be knocking on your door after ~45 years.
I’m sick of all the talk about equality. The rich have been discriminated against. They need to experience their opportunity to be poor like the rest of us.
I’ve been asking people if they thought there should be a limit to one’s wealth. Most look stunned. I guess they think there should not be any limit on total wealth. They must think they could become multi-billionaires. Delusions can be wonderful for the simple mind.
A limit to wealth assumes that wealth can be accumulated justly up to the prescribed limit. It does not oppose the nature of wealth itself, only its bad effects within limited contexts (“extreme” poverty). A limit to wealth is thus inherently arbitrary and a crude rationalization of wealth. In actual practice limits to wealth are ignored, circumvented or revised upwards – almost as if they never really existed in the first place.