Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“Wars top global risk as Davos elite gathers in shadow of fragmented world…
“”In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability,” WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek said in a statement accompanying the report. “The stakes have never been higher.””
“Dalio, Fink and Benioff Join World’s Mega-Rich Arriving in Davos…
“The event retains its enduring status as the premier networking hub for the world’s grandees despite long-standing fears over rising wealth inequality and geopolitical tensions, which have caused some prior attendees to boycott the 55th installment of Davos.”
“Global growth faces ‘serious headwinds’, World Bank warns.
“Trade conflicts threaten to strengthen inflation and keep interest rates high as economies in developing countries face struggle to recover from ‘successive negative shocks’… A combination of high debt burdens, a slowdown in productivity growth and climate change are likely to heap pressure on the world’s developing economies.”
“Trump’s plans could trigger liquidity crises across Europe and Asia…
“Donald Trump’s policies as US president, set against China’s manufacturing competitiveness, could trigger a liquidity crisis for many countries squeezed in between… The euro is at greatest risk… A US debt crisis is further down the road…”
“US financial deregulation would raise crisis risks, French central bank chief says…
“”Financial deregulation as some people are calling for in the United States would be dangerous, including for the financial system itself,” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told the French Senate’s finance commission.”
“The UK’s push to deregulate its way to growth has got veterans of the last financial crisis worried that it’s sowing the seeds for another crash…
““The tone [of Chancellor, Rachel Reeves’ rhetoric] was troubling,” said John Vickers, a professor of economics at the University of Oxford who chaired the Independent Commission on Banking from 2010 to 2011.”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2025/01/16/808487.htm
“UK economy sliding back into recession…
“During a visit to Ukraine the Prime Minister said… “We’re going to be unrelenting when it comes to driving our economy forward – changing the planning rules, changing regulation.””
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/uk-economy-sliding-back-into-recession/
“UK’s Buy-Now Pay-Later Market Booms Ahead of Crunch Year…
“The UK’s BNPL market has already jumped tenfold from 2019. That’s been fueled by a cost-of-living crisis in the aftermath of the pandemic, higher interest rates on other types of credit, and the disappearance of alternative “payday lenders.””
“The length of the mortgage default crisis has now eclipsed the financial crisis, as high interest rates hammer thousands of families [UK].
“Defaults have now been increasing for the past two years, according to a survey of lenders by the Bank of England.”
“The UK government has promised a record £410m investment in nuclear fusion which could help construct a world-leading fusion power project on the site of an old coal plant in Nottinghamshire…
“Ed Miliband says funding pledge means Britain within ‘grasping distance’ of ‘secure, clean, unlimited energy’.”
“‘Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia’: The looming gas crisis facing the West…
“For decades, Norway has been Britain’s leading source of imported energy. However, that relationship may be set to come under strain after the Scandinavian nation warned that its vast oil and gas fields are in decline.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/16/uk-energy-insecurity-norwegian-gas-reserves-decline/
“EU devours Russian gas at record speed despite cut-off…
“Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union’s 27 countries imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia.”
“EU eyes enlisting Belgian king to save Russia sanctions.
“EU officials are drawing up fallback measures including the use of an 81-year-old law involving the Belgian king to safeguard the bloc’s sanctions against Russia after Hungary threatened to veto their renewal.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3c99628a-7771-4a14-901c-4f466303e7fb
“Chancellor Olaf Scholz has set off a fierce political debate in Germany by making new Ukraine aid contingent on loosening his country’s strict spending restraints…
““I would still be in favor if everyone agreed to a resolution to finance this through loans,” Scholz said on German television late Wednesday.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-germany-war-in-ukraine-aid-package-borrowing/
“Germany: Europe’s largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession.
“Sky’s Ian King says figures have confirmed the country’s longest spell of economic stagnation since World War Two is not over yet, with a myriad of challenges facing whoever wins next month’s election.”
“Farmers group fears billion-euro loss from German foot-and-mouth disease.
“Germany’s farming and food industry is likely to have lost about 1 billion euros ($1 billion) of business following an outbreak of the livestock illness foot-and-mouth disease, the head of the farming cooperatives association told German media on Thursday.”
“NATO tests satellite internet as backup to sabotaged undersea cables…
“The first demonstration of the $2.5 million HEIST project – short for Hybrid Space-submarine Architecture Ensuring Infosec of Telecommunications – took place in Sweden on 16 January.”
“Russia accuses NATO of taking advantage of suspected sabotage of undersea cables to increase the alliance’s military presence in the Baltic Sea.
“Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has said that the West’s real goal is to limit the export of Russian oil by any means.”
“‘Little to lose’: Ukraine exacts retribution on Russian energy sites as Trump Looms.
“Ukraine and Russia have carried out massive strikes on each other’s energy facilities over the past two days, reflecting Kyiv’s growing willingness to respond blow-for-blow – and target a crucial Russian export – as it prepares for a potentially decisive transfer of power in Washington.”
“Kosovo Raids Parallel Serb Institutions Amid Simmering Ethnic Tensions.
“Authorities in Kosovo raided municipal offices in 10 Serbia-backed areas as the government continues to press the closure of so-called parallel institutions that gave Belgrade leverage in its former province.”
“North Korea smuggled nuclear weapons equipment from Spain.
“North Korea acquired a vacuum furnace suitable for nuclear weapons production from Spain by smuggling it across multiple continents, according to a U.S. think tank, raising concerns about Pyongyang’s ability to violate sanctions by misidentifying goods.”
https://www.nknews.org/2025/01/north-korea-smuggled-nuclear-weapons-equipment-from-spain-report/
“China hits 5% GDP target for 2024…
“But the overall economic picture remains gloomy as a years-long collapse in property prices has dragged on household consumption and investor confidence, while also leading to the insolvency of a number of highly indebted developers… Alternative data sources make the case that China’s economic growth is not as healthy as the headline figure suggests.”
https://www.ft.com/content/45c3f4ee-2825-45f3-aa4f-1d3615d06e3e
“China’s property investment drops 10.6% in 2024, sales slump 12.9%…
“New construction starts measured by floor area declined 23.0% in 2024, the same as the slide in the first eleven months. Funds raised by China’s property developers declined 17.0% last year from a year earlier…”
“China faces the longest deflation streak since the Mao era in the 1960s…
“China has failed to break a deflationary cycle and is now on course for the longest sequence of economy-wide price drops since the 1960s… According to major Wall Street banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, it will continue through this year.”
“Has China already reached peak oil [demand]?
“This week, China said its oil imports had fallen nearly 2 per cent, or 240,000 barrels a day, to just over 11mn b/d in 2024 compared with the year before… The milestone would shake the global economy. Over the past three decades, China has accounted for half of all growth in the world’s oil demand…”
https://www.ft.com/content/341f0aaa-7173-454c-89fd-103287625d38
“King Dollar Risks Becoming Greenback the Bully.
“The strength of the US currency risks fracturing global trade… The relentless rise of Treasury yields is translating directly into dollar strength, laying waste to the value of other currencies. It’s not a crisis yet; but trying to call a top is futile, and the risk of something breaking is increasing.”
“Surprise Asian Central Bank Moves Show Impact of Dollar Rampage…
“A surprise interest-rate cut in Indonesia [despite rupiah weakness] and signs the Reserve Bank of India is loosening its tight grip on the rupee suggest central banks’ defense against a strong dollar is starting to crack.”
“Indonesia’s universal health insurance program braces for default.
“Indonesia’s universal public health insurance scheme is facing risks of default in 2026 after a projected 20 trillion rupiah ($1.2 billion) deficit last year, with soaring claims outstripping contributions and the government unlikely to hike premiums.”
“Appalling report lays bare humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan after Biden’s catastrophic withdrawal.
“Nearly nine in 10 Afghans are starving and more than 80 percent have lost access to healthcare since America’s chaotic withdrawal allowed the Taliban to return to power in 2021.”
“Pakistan’s bet on Taliban backfires as violence surges…
“…with violence surging to a nine-year high, Islamabad’s hope that the new regime would prove a more co-operative ally than their US-backed predecessor has been replaced by concern about security.”
https://www.ft.com/content/85935c21-6973-4956-af5e-282aacd05294
“Death toll rises to 5 in rocket and gun attack on an aid convoy in restive northwestern Pakistan…
“The attack happened Thursday when trucks carrying food, medicine and other relief supplies for hundreds of thousands of besieged residents were heading to Kurram, a district hit by sectarian violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.”
“Israel rebuffs ‘imperialist’ Turkey after Erdogan says it must withdraw from Syria…
““Everyone should take their hands off Syria and we, along with our Syrian brothers, will crush the heads of Islamic State, the YPG and other terrorist organizations in a short time,” said Erdogan.”
“Long-overdue ceasefire may stop the killing but won’t end the conflict [Gaza]…
“…after 15 months of war in Gaza, the conflict which has lasted more than a century is as bitter and intractable as ever. The ceasefire doesn’t end the conflict. The consequences of so much destruction and death will be felt for a generation, at least.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8p95x04z8o
“Mysterious airstrip appears on a Yemeni island as Houthi rebel attacks threaten region…
“The runway is likely built by the United Arab Emirates, which has long been suspected of expanding its military presence in the region and has backed a Saudi-led war against the Houthis.”
“Inside the Houthi’s moneymaking machine. After a ceasefire in Gaza, they may continue their Red Sea racket…
“Their ideological motivation extends far beyond Gaza: they have attacked other targets including the Gulf Arab states. And having created a successful new business model to extract lucrative rents from global trade, they have a strong incentive to continue to act as gatekeepers to Suez.”
“Yemen targets US carrier in Red Sea as Washington ‘gears up’ for escalation.
“Washington is allegedly planning to continue its strikes against Yemen once a ceasefire in Gaza takes effect… According to Al-Akhbar newspaper, “there are no American–Israeli intentions to stop the aggression against Yemen, after the cessation of the war in Gaza.””
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/28474
“East Africa, Horn: Civilian Suffering in Armed Conflict…
““Armed forces and armed groups in Sudan and Ethiopia have deliberately targeted civilians and critical infrastructure with near total impunity,” said Mausi Segun, Africa director at Human Rights Watch.”
https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/01/16/east-africa-horn-civilian-suffering-armed-conflict
“Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say…
“The use of chemical weapons crosses yet another boundary in the war between the Sudanese military and the R.S.F., its former ally. By many measures, the conflict in Sudan has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/world/africa/sudan-chemical-weapons-sanctions.html
“Peace Talks Collapse As Kivu Conflict Escalates [DR Congo]: A Region On Edge…
“According to the Congolese presidency, the stalemate is a product of Rwandan demands that the D.R.C. engage in direct dialogue with the M23 rebel group, an ethnic Tutsi Kigali-backed militia responsible for large parts of the violence in the eastern Kivu province.”
https://theowp.org/peace-talks-collapse-as-kivu-conflict-escalates-a-region-on-edge/
“The ‘terrifying’ crackdown on mining companies in Africa’s coup belt…
“International mining companies are at the mercy of “terrifying” tactics from military regimes in Africa’s Sahel, whose leaders are using legal disputes, nationalisations and arrests to assert greater control over crucial minerals like gold and uranium.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9a0901f1-070f-43e8-9cd3-6bd6ab4f6c4a
“Uranium prices hit record as thirsty AI data centres add to market squeeze…
“Prices for enriched uranium have hit $190 per separative work unit — the standard measure of the effort required to separate isotopes of uranium — compared with $56 three years ago, according to data provider UxC.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8182ae01-c512-451d-b9a6-64023cac7467
“Global nuclear set for record growth in 2025 and SMRs are changing energy landscape, IEA says.
“Global nuclear energy is to achieve record levels of generation in 2025 while innovations such as small modular reactors (SMRs) are “changing the nuclear technology landscape”, but more private financing will be needed, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).”
“From snowy cities to Mexican border – Trump deportations loom…
“As light snow fell outside, worshippers gathered at Lincoln United Methodist Church in Chicago to pray and plan for what will happen when Donald Trump takes office next week, when the president-elect has promised to begin the largest expulsion of undocumented immigrants in US history.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm230ly8k1eo
“Drug-addicted rats have taken over a Houston police evidence room after eating seized narcotics…
“Last March, officials said rodents were consuming drugs in the evidence room of the decaying New Orleans Police Department headquarters. “The rats are eating our marijuana. They’re all high,” NOPD Chief Anne Kirkpatrick testified.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drug-eating-rats-houston-police-evidence/
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
It’s time for C&E commenters to start coming together to become change agents for the collapsing civilization we all belong to by birthright.
Please, let’s start today, with a Thoughts And Prayers worldwide campaign for those transnational mining companies being “terrorized” by those unfathomable, dastardly military plotters in the poorest of resource-cursed Africa.
Pray, pray, to our lord and savior, that these extractive mining companies will be watched over and protected in this, their hour of greatest need.
Maybe prayers won’t be enough – maybe send charity money to Glencoe instead of LA victims?
Note – there should be zero “likes” for this comment. Zero. Instead, be moved to actual expression, and tell the world what specific prayer you are offering for the interstellar benefit of our heroic western mining companies.
Thank you.
That article offers a very FT perspective, for sure, Martin. Here is one you might find more sympathetic from the Sri Lanka Guardian:
“Africa’s mission to reclaim its mining independence is a momentous, albeit fraught, endeavour, driven by a legacy of systemic exploitation that spans centuries. The winds of change are now sweeping through the continent, as African nations attempt to wrest control over their vast and valuable natural resources, long plundered by Western corporations and their proxies…
“Yet, while this approach offers the tantalising promise of national sovereignty, it also raises a host of questions about governance, accountability, and the capacity of these regimes to manage the wealth of the land. The spectre of corruption, inefficiency, and political instability looms large, casting doubt on the extent to which African governments can effectively manage their newfound resources…
“…the reality remains that the extraction of these resources is rarely accompanied by significant benefits for the local populations. Corruption, poor governance, and the exploitation of workers continue to plague the mining industry across much of Africa.”
https://slguardian.org/africas-battle-for-mining-sovereignty/
I support this call to action, Martin. I mean we all originally came from Africa, right? So those minerals are ours!
PS Those marijuana eating rats have the right idea, too, I think. Smart buggers!
secure, clean, unlimited energy’! Nooooooo, please NO.
Don’t worry, Su. This is wishful thinking on Ed Milliband’s part. The current state of play:
“Nuclear fusion has produced more energy than ever before in an experiment, bringing the world a step closer to the dream of limitless, clean power… The result came from the lab’s final experiment after more than 40 years of fusion research…
“[However] The experiments produced 69 megajoules of energy over five seconds. That is only enough energy for four to five hot baths – so not a lot. It is clear we are still a long way off from nuclear fusion power plants…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68233330
I wonder if the blueberries that I bought from Peru are being irradiated to keep them tasting fresh longer.