Huge thanks to Gerry for being this month’s sponsor. He has asked me to post the following: Still alive in ’25 – we’re all in this together! Find supportive community and resources at postdoom.com (founded by Michael Dowd; RIP).
“Conflicts surged across the world in 2024, data suggests…
“Political violence increased by 25% globally in 2024 compared to 2023, with one in eight people exposed to conflict… The data also suggests that there has been a two-fold increase in global conflicts over the past five years… the intensity and human toll of armed conflicts are also on the rise…”
“10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025…
“In unsettled times, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. But how does a disrupter deal with an already disrupted world?”
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2025
“Businesses Preparing for Another Year of Geopolitical Tumult…
“Multiple governments around the world saw turmoil in a single week, Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman told attendees at a conference last month, citing France, Syria and South Korea. “To say that there is geopolitical instability in the world would be a gross understatement,” he said.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-preparing-for-another-year-of-geopolitical-tumult-ba4aaefe
“Politicians will hinder central banks’ easing plan…
“…the world’s fiscal house …resembles a family home after teenage kids staged a party while their parents were away for the weekend… the political masters of the biggest economies have embraced a near-permanent state of fiscal expansion. And they are not rowing back any time soon, as austerity is a sure-fire vote loser.”
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/politicians-will-hinder-central-banks-easing-plan-2025-01-03/
“$102 Trillion Global Debt: The U.S. And China Lead The Charge – What You Need To Know…
“As the global debt approaches $102 trillion, the United States and China are the top contributors to the increasing debt. According to data from the IMF and Visual Capitalist, in one year, the global debt will have risen by $5 trillion.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/102-trillion-global-debt-u-150041761.html
“China stocks extend declines with bond yields hitting record lows as PBOC reportedly signals rate cuts.
“The People’s Bank of China is reportedly planning to cut interest rates from the current 1.5% level “at an appropriate time” this year… China’s bond yields hit record lows with the 10-year yield dropping 1.5 basis point to 1.598%…”
“China targets dozens of U.S. companies ahead of anticipated Trump tariffs…
“China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would impose measures on 28 U.S. entities and would also prohibit exports of dual-use items to the listed companies starting on Thursday, reported the Global Times, a Chinese daily viewed as aligned with Beijing…”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-trump-tariffs/
“Treasury’s sanctions office hacked by Chinese government, officials say…
“Chinese government hackers breached a highly sensitive office in the Treasury Department that administers economic sanctions against countries and groups of individuals — one of the most potent tools possessed by the United States to achieve national security aims, according to U.S. officials.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/01/01/treasury-hack-china/
“Recession warning lights are already flashing for Britain in 2025…
“…the economy is grinding to a halt, raising the prospect of further growth-stifling tax rises to ensure compliance with the Government’s fiscal rules… Just as worrying, inflation is likely to prove stickier than many anticipate…”
“‘Longest economic crisis’ in modern German history expected to drag on for third year…
“”The German economy is in the midst of its greatest crisis in post-war history,” said Bert Rürup, chief economist at the HRI. “The pandemic, energy crisis and inflation have made Germans poorer on average.””
https://tvpworld.com/84331034/german-recession-projected-to-enter-its-third-year
“The downturn in the eurozone manufacturing sector deepened in December as it ended the year in contraction in most of the indexes, according to a report released on Thursday.
“The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to… 45.1 in December, continuing its two-and-a-half years of decline trend.”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/eurozone-manufacturing-sector-closes-2024-in-contraction/3440177
“EU’s energy fixation left water crisis unchecked, top official warns…
““Businesses understand this now because we have had droughts in Europe and then we see that nuclear plants don’t really function and we see the transportation on big rivers doesn’t function . . . this is an urgent question,” Jessika Roswall added.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6960192a-8de1-4050-94ca-f6c36186b8c3
“European gas prices soar after Russian gas flow via Ukraine stops…
“Freezing temperatures across the north of the region pushed prices up on Thursday morning with a backdrop of losing 5% of the EU’s natural gas import as Russian import stopped entering the European Union via Ukraine on 1 January, after decades of operating…”
“Starved of Russian gas, industry shuts down in breakaway Moldovan region…
“”All industrial enterprises are idle, with the exception of those engaged in food production – that is, directly ensuring food security for Transdniestria,” Sergei Obolonik, first deputy prime minister of the region, told a local news channel.”
“Slovakia threatens to cut benefit for Ukrainians…
“The prime minister of the EU state said he would propose halting electricity exports to Ukraine and also “sharply reducing” financial support for Ukrainians who have found shelter in Slovakia.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr3j5y0lddo
“US to send Ukraine $6bn in fresh military and budget assistance…
“Monday’s transfer includes $1.25bn in assistance from US weapons and ammunition stockpiles as well as $1.22bn in funds from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows Ukraine to purchase goods directly from the US defence industry.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f7f07e1e-6a61-4686-8197-9640bc1dc705
“Putin orders Russian government and top bank to develop AI cooperation with China…
“Western sanctions intended to restrict Moscow’s access to the technologies it needs to sustain its war against Ukraine have resulted in the world’s major producers of microchips halting exports to Russia, severely limiting its AI ambitions.”
“South Korea latest: Investigators fail to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol after standoff with presidential security…
“The country’s anti-corruption agency said it was halting the execution of an arrest warrant for Mr Yoon due to concerns over the safety of the officers who had gone to detain him.”
“Drugs, Scams and Sin: Myanmar’s War Has Made It the Global Crime Capital…
“Myanmar has cemented its status as a hotbed of transnational crime. It is a playground for warlords, arms dealers, human traffickers, poachers, drug syndicates and generals wanted by international courts. Myanmar is now the biggest nexus of organized crime on the planet…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/world/asia/myanmar-drugs-crime.html
“Tensions Escalate After Pakistan Pounds Afghanistan With Airstrikes.
“Pakistani officials accuse the Taliban of providing sanctuary to the TTP, a charge that Taliban leaders deny. Pakistani officials defend the incursions into Afghanistan as essential to curbing TTP attacks on Pakistani citizens and soldiers, as well as on Chinese nationals involved in projects under the Belt and Road Initiative…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/world/asia/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban.html
“Afghan refugees suffer ‘like prisoners’ in Pakistan crackdown…
““For Afghans, the situation here is terrible and the behaviour of the Pakistani police is like that of the Taliban,” said Shaharzad, who lives in constant fear of being deported with her children.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2585019/pakistan
“Biden ‘discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites before Trump inauguration’…
“Mr Biden is said to have engaged in discussions about how the US should respond if Iran took specific steps towards building a nuclear bomb before Jan 20, including by enriching uranium to 90 per cent purity… Mr Biden did not reach a definitive conclusion.”
“US Troops Continue to Occupy Syrian Oil Fields, Minister Says…
“Syria’s oil minister, Ghiath Diab, has decried the ongoing US military occupation of Syrian oil fields, which he called a major obstacle to the country’s recovery. Speaking Monday, Diab stated that several oil wells remain outside the administration of the Syrian state…”
https://newscentral.africa/us-troops-continue-to-occupy-syrian-oil-fields-minister-says/
“Gaza crisis: 77% of Palestinians without basic relief supplies, NGO says…
“The New Arab reported the harsh winter compounding the suffering of displaced Palestinians, many of whom lack adequate shelter, face flooding in their tents, or struggle with illness and malnutrition.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/77-palestinians-without-basic-relief-supplies-ngo-says
“Sudan: Inside the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
“Hundreds of thousands of victims, including both the dead and the wounded, along with extreme malnutrition and famine in certain regions, have left the country on the brink of catastrophe after more than a year and a half of war.”
“Malawi struggles to feed thousands amid refugee crisis…
“Thousands of people have fled Mozambique to neighboring Malawi, seeking refuge from the nation’s deadly post-election unrest… Ellen Kaosa is one of over 13,000 Mozambicans who sought refuge in Malawi’s southern border district of Nsanje…”
https://www.dw.com/en/malawi-struggles-to-feed-thousands-amid-refugee-crisis/a-71202858
“M23 conflict escalates in eastern DRC as rebels defend ‘existential war’.
“The head of M23’s political wing Bertrand Bisimwa, termed the group’s efforts as an “existential war” to protect Congolese Tutsis, who he claims have long faced discrimination due to their ethnic links to Rwanda.”
“Mali’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned on Wednesday Algeria’s interference in its internal affairs, accusing its neighbor of supporting terrorist groups in the Sahel.
“The statement emphasized that Mali would not allow external powers to meddle in its sovereignty or act as “firefighters” while fueling conflicts.”
“Morgan Stanley Follows Citi, Bank of America in Quitting Climate Group…
“Morgan Stanley terminated its membership of a major climate-banking group, joining a wave of Wall Street firms that recently quit a global alliance intended to aid the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-02/morgan-stanley-leaves-net-zero-alliance-for-banks
“Carbon omissions…
“Fossil fuel companies including BP and Shell are taking advantage of misunderstood terminology by promising to deliver “net zero operations” while still drilling, refining and selling ever more fossil fuels, according to sustainability consultancy firm Eight Versa.”
https://theecologist.org/2025/jan/02/carbon-omissions
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Thank you Pano and Gerry!
You are welcome, and indeed thanks to Gerry.
I was happy to have an opportunity to namecheck Michael Dowd. I had the pleasure of corresponding with him a bit and “meeting” him via video-chat. He struck me as very warm and gregarious, as well as being extremely knowledgeable.
Those last two articles are as slimy and evil as it gets.
Not in the least bit surprising, though, Doom Wizard.
COP29 was teeming with fossil fuel lobbyists and Big Oil has been scaling back its energy transition plans for a while. The system is starting to admit to itself that it is powerless over its dependence.
An excellent balance of what is really going on in the world in today’s round-up, and some well written pieces there.
“To say that there is geopolitical instability in the world would be a gross understatement,” – but you ain’t seen nothing yet.
To those ten conflicts to watch I’d add: Mozambique, Kenya, Eritrea/Ethiopia/Somalia, Egypt/Ethiopia, India/Pakistan/Kashmir, Pakistan/Afghanistan, India/China, Colombia, Bolivia, Balkans (pick a spot), USA (internal), the Sahel coup belt, South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand, and, even though it’s probably had more fatalities than any other, the DRC and neighbours hardly ever gets serious attention (just a quick mention here). Interesting it doesn’t put Yemen and Lebanon separately but as Iran proxies. Also that article talks about Trump as if he makes reasoned, political decisions; he doesn’t everything is based on toxic narcissism, a personal slight or fawning compliment will have much more influence than consideration of what is good for the Republicans or (God forbid) the average American. Plus he seems much more in the grip of dementia than Biden did at the start of his term. Which of his rapidly shifting collection of handlers has a say on any given day will be the biggest factor.
Thank you, George, for the compliment. Re the Balkans, I thought the events mentioned in the article below might presage a flare-up but that has not happened yet:
“Kosovo’s interior minister, Xhelal Sveçla, said on Saturday that police had arrested eight people after an explosion hit a canal that sends water to its two main power plants, an incident Pristina labelled a “terrorist act” by neighbouring Serbia.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/30/kosovo-arrests-eight-linked-to-canal-explosion-as-tensions-with-serbia-rise
Trump, Kamala et cetera et cetera ad nauseum… are brand ambassadors for the US ruling class’s four year plans. Real ideological opposition could not survive WW2. When it does rear its head again (whether as socialism or barbarism) the whole damn system will go straight to hell one way or the other.
Meanwhile, the life activity of the wealthiest 10 to 15 percent of people worldwide (and 40 to 60 percent in NATO/OECD) must be cynically reproduced by complementary policy sets that need to be ostentatiously incompatible because the naked reality is far too depressing even for the technocrats themselves.
Jupiviv, I think you can make a case that the various populist, right-wing movements sprouting up in Europe and elsewhere do constitute a real ideological opposition to the status quo, although I take your point about the embedded nature of vested interests in the US.
All political movements are going to be increasingly hamstrung by their failure to deliver on promises of increased prosperity, though, so all that I am confident in predicting is lots of political lability, coupled with bouts of paralysis, as electorates grow increasingly angry and frustrated. As you say, barbarism is probably where we are ultimately headed.
Re Trump; his orgy of deregulation might keep the US economy ticking over for a bit but…
Look at what the “populist” parties are actually doing and what the long term differences in outcome are for their brand of politics compared to the other folks. Example:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-meloni-talks-tough-migrants-while-opening-up-foreign-workers-2023-12-06/
“Despite its pledges to stem rising flows of unauthorised migrants, Meloni’s government has had little success.
Sea arrivals from North Africa have jumped to nearly 153,000 so far this year from almost 96,000 in the same period of 2022 and 63,000 in the same period of 2021, and close to a historic all-year peak of around 181,400 in 2016, according to government data.”
Has “had” little success. Sorta like “finding” yourself pregnant! It’s all theatre Pan and I know you know this already even if you’re reluctant to let go of the politics crutch. When it gets REAL bad the whole basket of current European leadership (and I don’t care how far-whatever they’re supposed to be) will run off to get pickled in American think tanks.
“It’s all theatre Pan and I know you know this already even if you’re reluctant to let go of the politics crutch.”
To say it’s all theatre is an oversimplification, Jupiviv. Populist parties’ views on issues like funding Ukraine, LGBTQ+ rights and Net Zero tend to be strongly opposed to the prevailing ones. I have as mechanistic a view of politics in this era as anyone who has studied Gail Tverberg or Nate Hagens (quoted below), but that doesn’t mean that a change of government is of zero consequence.
“The more people involved in a decision/process, the more our decisions resemble simple bacterial tropisms which unconsciously move towards energy acquisition.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067
Antagonistic political interests obviously exist and will become more so. But politics as it plays out within the organs of modern states can no longer even temporarily and partially resolve those bitter contradictions as it could in the 20th century. All it’s doing is safeguarding the economic (=political) interests of all classes that benefit from the system, because capitalism has universalised and streamlined those interests. When those interests are seriously threatened they will be threatened universally and the contours of the real politics of our age will emerge.
Jupiviv, I cannot imagine many readers will disagree with your premise that unprecedented political upheaval lies ahead.
Like any part of.the supersystemic economy, C&E is going to be faced with growth-related dilemmas,.especially in this epic year of 2025.
So why not consider going to a Top40 format that worked.so.well for Casey Kasem and pop music?
Right now the UN charts in the link have Sudan at No. 1 as the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” beating out last week’s No.1, the Israeli-US-German produced holocaust “Gaza.”
These are both platinum smashes, great testimony to the dead social institutions of the human world.
There are some fast-rising new entrants the bottom of the current Top40-.tune in next week to catch all the chart.movement.
What if humanity suddenly woke up out of its techno-stupor and decided to divert some nuke-bomb funds to the WFP to save our fellow humans in the Sudan and Gaza and… We can still dream if we’re not dead, can’t we?
Martin, you inspired me to seek out a top ten list of the world’s worst humanitarian crises (with a further ten being listed in an “unranked second half”). We will be living in bleak times indeed when there are enough to fill an entire top 40!
Perhaps unsurprisingly, eight of the crises featured on International Rescue Committee’s Emergency Watchlist are in Africa, with Myanmar and Gaza the exceptions. I was a little surprised, however, that Ukraine only falls into that unranked group.
https://www.rescue.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/CS2401_Report_Watchlist_Final_30MB.pdf
For fuck’s sake -.Ukraine didn’t even make it to the Top 10?
How you find these insanely relevant head-smackers in the signal noise that is the WWW is astounding.
I’m a little.worried that a Global Top 20 exists, that I’m really not sure what the criteria are for determining chart position, that Central America is not on the Top 10 list, that Africa owns the Top 10, and that Pan-O can find actual examples to anything brought up – but I’ll be all right. I’ve got six more episodes o’ “Say Nothing” to go on a free trial.
That actually sounds like a good watch, Martin:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Say_Nothing_(TV_series)
If there is blood left to spill, let’s spill it.
“No, we didn’t light it, but we tried to fight it.” from “We Didn’t Start the Fire” – Billy Joel. F that! Your ancestors started it with Cain & Able & this A-hole species continued to fan the flames.
What’s worse than violent perpetrators? All those that display their cowardice by not saying, enough, & if it doesn’t stop we will become violent & stop it. Cowards have allowed violence to spread to become a problem that can’t be dealt with?
I have no sympathy for those that become collateral damage. Lay there & bleed, there’s that much less blood to have to spill. Damn! That takes all the fun away.
I guess I’m wrong again. Everyone knows that rehabilitation has made this species the most peaceful in the 11 dimensions & eliminated any possibility of anyone becoming collateral damage.
Signed – Unfiltered, I can handle the truth, old codger. Smiling all the way to extinction. 😉
TR, re that Billy Joel song, Google tells me “‘We Didn’t Start the Fire’ …refers to the idea that history has been an ever-moving concept and the state of the world is not the fault of those currently living in it.”
Apparently, Billy has just returned to song-writing after a ridiculously long hiatus. I don’t know if the new stuff is any good but I certainly loved the old stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVX80UpMPDI
Saw the word unraveling, which I haven’t used in quit a while. For some, the word might seem to describe what is happening for different people in different situations & to the globe as a whole. Unraveling is not what is happening. We are simply facing the consequences of our actions.
Thoughts & prayers. 😉