Very many thanks to this month’s kind sponsor, John Bee, who wishes me to exhort, “Go Steelers!”
“Another Jolt of Uncertainty for a Global Economy Mired in It…
“…just how President-elect Donald J. Trump’s administration will handle policy decisions that are crucial to the global economy’s path — on trade, technology, climate, industrial policy and more — is still unclear. Meanwhile, pre-election sources of instability keep spinning.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/business/economy/global-economy-us-election.html
“Global trade remains in contraction at start of fourth quarter.
“The worldwide Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys …indicated that global trade in goods and services remained in deterioration at the start of the final quarter of the year… posting below the 50.0 neutral mark for a fifth consecutive month.”
“The world faces its worst trade wars since 1930s…
“Mr Trump returns to power with a mandate to impose tax rises on trade, and on a historic scale. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 raised the average tariff on dutiable imports by six percentage points. Protectionist moves and counter-moves that followed shrank overall global commerce for years.”
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/11/07/the-world-faces-its-worst-trade-wars-since-1930s
“Afterburners on zooming sovereign debt supply…
“Far from soothing anxieties about mounting sovereign debt, the world’s biggest economies appear to be doubling down – almost goading bond investors into ratcheting up the cost of the borrowing even as central banks pare back interest rates.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/afterburners-zooming-sovereign-debt-supply-mike-dolan-2024-11-08/
“American debt is soaring: something’s got to give…
“Donald Trump is king of the world. Nobody can hold a candle to his military or economic power. But there’s a bigger force looming over him that is beginning to flick its tail: debt… [He] may find there is a high economic price to pay for his tax cuts and inflationary policies.”
“US central bank boss says Trump can’t fire him…
“Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said he would not step down if Trump asked and that it is “not permitted under law” for the White House to force him out… Interest rates on US debt have already jumped this week…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4v7vwgqj0o
“Risk assets rally but bond market views Donald Trump’s victory with caution…
““Sugar rush is a good term for what we’ve experienced,” said Tina Fordham, founder of advisory firm Fordham Global Foresight, which advises investors and corporate executives on political issues.”
https://www.ft.com/content/49c08af1-e928-4df0-b5a1-a8662c382a8d
“Wall Street scores political victory with a Trump win: ‘This should aid all banks’…
“What banks are hoping is that a new administration would also loosen a new set of controversial capital rules proposed by top bank regulators that would require lenders to set aside greater buffers for future losses.”
“Banks face growing risk as double defaults on commercial loans mount…
“The number of US borrowers in danger of defaulting a second time on commercial property loans is at the highest level in a decade, raising concerns that a bank practice known as “extend and pretend” is hiding growing systemic risk.”
https://www.ft.com/content/185f7b12-5baf-42c4-bddd-1c723ed90a7b
“Trump election victory: Why China’s economy is more vulnerable to any new tariffs this time.
“A threat by Donald Trump, who has been elected as the next U.S. president, to impose 60% tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods poses major growth risks for the world’s second-largest economy.”
“‘Time for patriots’: global far-right figures celebrate Trump’s win…
“Across the Atlantic, far-right leaders exalted in the success of their movement’s trailblazer. “It is time for patriots. It is time for freedom,” Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right party Vox, wrote on social media.”
“EU’s trade war nightmare gets real as Trump triumphs…
“Trump’s victory is giving EU leaders flashbacks to the 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent tariff on aluminum that he imposed in 2018 over national security concerns. His second mandate is likely to be worse, analysts and officials fear, with the bloc now more reliant on U.S. liquefied natural gas to meet its energy needs.“
“Gas Reliance Persists as Europe Faces Winter Energy Crunch…
“Bloomberg …suggested that if the winter is colder than the last two, storage could be depleted by the end of heating season. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Ukraine has stated it would not renew a gas transit deal with Russia’s Gazprom after it expires next month.”
“Can Europe’s unity survive as its sense of crisis grows?
““…You cannot pay for competitiveness. You have to create the conditions for it,” says a senior EU diplomat present in Budapest. “[And] where is this new money supposed to come from? Borrow against future generations? Or expect other member states to pay for you?””
https://www.ft.com/content/3fc627f7-6539-4061-a19a-1657056f3620
“Italy calls for EU support to meet NATO spending target…
“Italy’s public debt, the second largest in the euro zone after that of Greece, is targeted at 135.8% of GDP this year, up from 134.8 in 2023, and is seen rising to 137.8% in 2026 before marginally declining from 2027.”
“German coalition collapses: What comes next?
“Germany’s coalition collapsed on Wednesday as Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his finance minister and paved the way for a snap election, triggering political chaos in Europe’s largest economy hours after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-coalition-collapses-what-comes-next-2024-11-06/
“Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan that puts British troops in 800-mile buffer zone…
“The idea, outlined by three Trump staffers, would see the current front line frozen in place and Ukraine agreeing to shelve its ambition to join Nato for 20 years. In exchange, the US would pump Ukraine full of weapons to deter Russia from restarting the war.”
“Putin says he’s ‘ready’ to pick up if ‘manly’ Trump calls him.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. election victory, praising the Republican’s “manly” response to an attempted assassination — and saying he’s “ready” to speak with him.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-manly-donald-trump-us-election/
“Russian central bank blames labour shortages, not high rates, for investment slowdown…
“The Bank of Russia last month hiked its key rate by 200 basis points to 21%, the highest level since the early years of President Vladimir Putin’s rule, as heavy state spending for the conflict in Ukraine tightens the labour market, pushing up wages and inflation.”
“Trump to worsen our plight: Palestinian, Lebanese victims of Israel’s wars…
“In Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon, there are fears the loyal ally of Israel will embolden its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and far-right coalition government to escalate regional conflicts…”
“Israel sends rescue planes after football fans reportedly attacked in Amsterdam.
“The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has directed two rescue planes to be sent to Amsterdam after “a very violent incident” targeting Israeli citizens, his office has said, after attacks linked to a football game were reported.”
“Bloodbath in Ethiopia: 48 killed in restive Oromia region; what’s the conflict all about?
“Ethiopia’s human rights commission said Thursday (November 7) it is investigating the killing of at least 48 people in the conflict-ridden Oromia region, attributing the massacre to armed rebels from the Oromo Liberation Army.”
“Troops kill 481 terrorists, arrest 741 suspects [NE Nigeria]…
“In the North-East, Buba said the troops of Operation Hadin Kai, conducted synchronised offensives between the air force and ground forces striking and dislodging terrorists from their hideouts and strongholds.”
“Nigeria’s military has warned of a new insurgent group, Lakurawas, infiltrating the country’s northwest region from neighbouring Niger and Mali, its spokesperson said on Thursday.
“Nigeria has been grappling with a long-running insurgency in its northeast, primarily driven by the Islamist armed group Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province.”
“Four soldiers, two schoolchildren killed in attacks in northwest Pakistan…
“…the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) armed group, also known as Pakistan Taliban, has stepped up its assaults in the region since its ally, the Afghan Taliban, seized power in neighbouring Afghanistan in 2021.”
“2 million at risk of starvation in Myanmar state amid ‘total economic collapse’…
“Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh in the west, is on the brink of disaster, as people’s incomes crater, rice cultivation plummets, and military-imposed trade restrictions lead to severe food shortages and hyperinflation…”
“The energy transition has a mining problem. Demand for transition minerals is rising rapidly as we need more and more minerals for renewable technologies.
“But mining for these metals to build the batteries, wind turbines, solar panels and electric grids necessary to get off fossil fuels is causing untold social and environmental harms and sparking social unrest from Indonesia to Peru and Serbia.”
“The large environmental consequences of bitcoin mining…
“Each bitcoin transaction generates carbon emissions roughly equivalent to driving a gasoline-powered car between 1,600 and 2,600 kilometres. This highlights the high environmental cost of each transaction on the network and underscores the need for solutions to reduce this impact.”
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Over the past 25 years political discourse in the United States has devolved from Juvinile to infantile.
Seriously, why comment at all?
From the Qatar University/University of Denver “Business School” piece:
“With coordinated action, the cryptocurrency sector can become a model of sustainability, balancing innovation with environmental responsibility. Addressing bitcoin’s emissions, along with those of other emerging technologies, will be crucial as we strive to meet global climate targets and mitigate the risks of climate change.”
100% Bullshit.
From Robert Hunziker at Counterpunch, whom I have managed to interact through email as about the only pundit in the world willing to entertain macrofutilism (though only at times):
“Millions of members (over 70 million voters in the 2024 election) of the Most Ill-Informed Ignorant People on the Planet have sealed the fate of an abrupt enormously destructive climate system that’s already started misbehaving in earnest because of excessive levels of greenhouse gases like CO2 emitted by burning fossil fuels, thus slamming the climate system down onto the mat, defeated, for the worse. How will it get better?”
100% Truth.
There’s no way for it to “get better.” Revenge of the dummies, now in full implementation everywhere.
And once again, I’ve violated the C&E non-partisanship edict. Just can’t stop myself, it seems.
Martin, partisan views are fine, as long as they are not part of some drawn-out axe-grinding campaign. I would just prefer that they are offered as agreeably as possible, as my days are intense and I don’t have the mental bandwidth to manage much in the way of conflict in the comments section.
I recall Robert Hunziker did a “post doom” interview with Michael Dowd (RIP) a few years back:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfzWBNLTf6I
One perspective:
“Dozens of Israelis so far have been beaten up, with sustained injuries, in Amsterdam
The Israeli Foreign Ministry has set up a crisis room and emergency line to coordinate efforts in what they are now calling the ‘Amsterdam pogrom’.
These Israelis (fans of the football team ‘Maccabi Tel Aviv’) were shouting and booing during the minute of silence for the Spanish flood victims. “Where were you on October 7th?”
They were also seen pulling down Palestinian flags in several streets, and while under police protection, they shouted ‘kill every Arab, destroy every Mosque’, and ‘turn Gaza into Hiroshima.’
Once police protection was gone, their bravery departed in equal measure.”
Cassandra, it does sound like there was some Israeli instigation, not mentioned in the article I posted. This DM article has some Twitter links with clips:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-14053391/Israeli-football-hooligans-Palestine-flags-Ajax-Maccabi-Tel-Aviv.html
Streuth
‘Why comment at all?”
Because we like reading them.
Thought you might like this COPout (being held in Baku! The original big oil field developed by the inventor of dynamite: Nobel):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmzvdn9e18o
Martin, we do indeed like your comments. Please don’t let my aversion to conflict put you off.
Rob, I am officially jaded. That article made me laugh like a drain.
Panopticon is always the best, doing a super-human job here times two, considering other work and life obligations, making this completely incomprehensible as a daily achievement.
I was just raising the question rhetorically to myself, mostly in reaction to Tuesday’s Day That Politics Died.
People, especially those with either a college degree or a modicum of intelligence, just got punched in the face that sent them staggering to their knees, but the internet reaction of these folks seems to be lecturing others on how not to get punched in the face.
No lesson, at all, about the inherent futility of playing a game where the dummies are the house, and you are the mark?
If some institution has become a tired joke, like COP29 in the face an outright hoaxer (Milei) now joined by bigger and more incoherent hoaxers, why do we (I ask rhetorically again) keep lining up to watch this stupid show?
Yeah, I had my little snit fit in this amazing space a few days ago. It was a fucking dispiriting, endlessly frustrating day, mostly because it was a confirmation of the rage everyone should have been feeling since the Reagan counter-revolution (Jimmy Carter installed actual public servants in high governmental regulatory roles, for a brief moment).
❤
I was just trying to sleep, found myself thinking about humans and felt overwhelming sad. Humans had such promise, a species with the ability to be more than their biology, an ability to empathise, to discuss, even a skill of communicating without words. We could have been guardians of earth but, because some people, a very small number of people, suffer from appalling greed, have had all their connections with humanity severed, have replaced a need for companionship with a need for control, we have killed ourselves and earth
Wouldn’t it have been easier to impose a Tobin Tax: every £1000 traded on the stock exchange has to pay 50p to the government? Out of the £36,000,000,000 it would raise per year we could have solved quite a few problems in the UK and set a trend for the rest of the world.
Not for nothing did the last 2 religions forbid usuary
Putting down half of the electorate is a minor part of why the election went to the right. The major part was 24/7 gaslighting the country including your own voters over immigration, crime, the economy, women’s sports and the declining state of the President. A majority of the D campaign ads were outright lies, distortions or outright gaslighting. I expected better from the party of Joy. It was painful to watch my elderly parents react while some of my operative friends relished in the sick pleasure of propaganda. Mom wants to beat up Trump. No wonder the party is attacking itself now. 2 minutes of hate, you guys went full Orwell and you can’t see it.
Most of the energy skeptics agree that solving the climate problem will end up crashing the economy, that the supply of critical minerals is lacking for a transition and some form of involuntary de-growth is required.
The crowd calls you a conspiracy theorist for pointing out the Covid response with digital QR, emergency liquidity, money printing and crowd control measures is essentially what you would expect for a Phase 1 response or alpha test to mitigate increasing energy cost of energy, complexity and unsustainable debt. Economic and energy sanctions encourage a multipolar world order with regional trade and energy blocs. Dark Winter drill includes Pence as Anthrax hoax protagonists now J6 hero. WEF Cyber Polygon included a large number of Russian banking and industry participants. Neo-con war hawks and disaster capitalists camped out with the D’s, Cheney and Bush.. a safe way to lose the Hitler monicker. Biden and Rick Bright casually throwing out the Dark Winter meme. Sorry, One more reason to vote R.
Common sense solution to angst over political solutions and the downward spiral is some self-reflection and personal responsibility not more name calling because you risk becoming the very thing you despise.
Replenish, thank you for your thoughts, and I’m sorry to hear that this bitterly polarising election has managed to seep its way into your personal life.
Re your alpha test theory, I have no inside scoop there, alas. I don’t doubt for a minute that all sorts of vested interests and creepy “We Know What’s Best for You”-type think tanks and organisations learnt plenty of “helpful” things from the pandemic.
However, intentionally throwing a large spanner into the workings of a complex system like the global economy and trying to orchestrate outcomes seems like a pretty stupid thing to do for a learning exercise, especially when there are extant sources of information in the areas you mention. Crowd control is not poorly understood, for example, and we’ve been watching Japan trying to stave off deflation with massive stimulus since 2001.
Also actively encouraging instability via a planned pandemic and piling even more debt onto a creaking financial system necessarily reduces the global economy’s resilience and brings forward the date at which the wheels come off. It hardly seems worth the trade off.
Demonstration of the linkage between cheap energy and energy prices.
https://x.com/CarlZha/status/1854856528517538144?t=AtyyoxxVQdNgRDZbkvQxXw&s=19
Thank you, Rain. The Chinese state sets electricity prices and, for the industrial sector, does so in such a way to encourage off-peak use, which helps keep prices down. But more than anything this is about coal.
China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world. Meanwhile, the UK, deflatingly at the bottom of the list you link to, has just shut its last coal station, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, ending 142 years of coal-powered electricity.
China is hitting affordability limits with its own coal, though. Ageing deposits and declining quality have forced it to import record quantities in 2024. Globally, coal consumption per capita peaked in 2012 (h/t Gail Tverberg), which is a significant, if largely ignored, contributor to the general LtG craziness I chart in these threads.
A nicely varied set of stories today, pretty much all likely aspects of Limits to Growth covered – but is there now a noticeable rise in the number with violence highlighted? Here’s an interesting site I recently found (I’m a sucker for anything with downloadable data): Armed Conflict Location & Event Data.
https://acleddata.com
Thank you, George. Conflict is, unfortunately, a way more prominent part of the LtG story than when I started these threads.
“There were more countries engaged in conflict in 2023 than at any time since World War II. Across the world, 92 countries are now involved in conflicts outside of their borders, according to new data from the Institute for Economics & Peace.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/worldwide-conflict-war-report-global-peace-index/
This is our last decade of relative stability on Planet Earth.
I think this is probably true, Regan.
China to the rescue…again? I know this has been covered here already today regarding the debt bomb. I’m very concerned, no worried, we are spiraling to a financial Armageddon.
It not if, but when and as George posted yesterday it will be sooner not later…very troubling indeed…as advised a few times here, enjoy today.
China announces $1.4 trillion over five years to tackle local governments’ hidden debt
The program takes effect this year and will run through the end of 2026, officials said. It was widely expected that Beijing would unveil more stimulus amid an economic slowdown.
Nov. 8, 2024, 4:17 AM EST / Source: CNBC
By Evelyn Cheng, CNBC
BEIJING — China on Friday announced the central government would allocate an additional 6 trillion yuan ($840 billion) to local governments for tackling hidden debt issues.
The program takes effect this year and will run through the end of 2026, Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an told reporters. That breaks down to around 2 trillion yuan a year.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-announces-14-trillion-five-years-tackle-local-governments-hidden-rcna179269
Everyone realizes what’s going down…actually up, as we inflate our troubles away.
PS. Can’t complain, compared to the other, less fortunate suffering in the articles …
More on this from Bloomberg
China unveiled a much-anticipated 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local governments, and investors weren’t impressed. Stock index futures fell and the yuan weakened following the late afternoon announcement, while oil and iron ore prices also declined. The plan to defuse local government debt, long considered a time bomb in the Chinese financial system, came after a week-long meeting of the country’s top legislators. Investors had hoped the high-level gathering would also roll out potent fiscal spending to counter the threat of tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. Economists at Standard Chartered and Macquarie project China’s growth would suffer a hit of as much as two percentage points should Trump follow through on his campaign vow to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%. Officials can expect continued pressure on them to step up support for the economy in the months ahead.
Thanks, Vince. It’s kind of amazing how little real curiosity there is in the media around why the world’s two largest economies are having to stimulate their economies with these insane amounts of debt – especially the US, which is supposed to be going gangbusters.
Lets make a list of whats not working or its not going according to the plan. The green new deal which includes ev roll out lots of problems, bitcoin and the new digital ids i see lots of problems trying to scale this beast, even though here in the states they are rolling out facial ids in airports now and on our phones, ai what a train wreck, what else is supposed to save us but we just go back tk coal again?
“Lets make a list of what’s not working or its not going according to the plan.”
Heather, we are very much caught in the quicksand of Joseph Tainter’s declining marginal returns on complexity and problem-solving. It can be crazy-making, feeling that life is getting ever more complicated but there is no real value added by that complexity.
We have two major parties in America. One is the Stupid Party, the other,the Retard Party but I can’t tell the difference. IQ test are going to add negative numbers if needed for one’s score. 😉
For what’s it worth, true/false, whatever – Read a post about a woman whose husband works in Pa., in a Red voting area. He went to work & management called a meeting of all employees. They were told that they wouldn’t receive a Christmas bonus. Employees asked why. Management had to explain tariffs. The company was going to spend the bonuses on stocking up on supplies before tariffs were imposed.
Let’s see how TTT, Trump Tariff Tax works out for his supporters. It might not be the Left that only has to deal with price increases.
I’m thinking that businesses will increase prices between now & tariff time to cover their cost & add to the bottom line, then when tariffs start to increase prices, businesses will try to make a little more profit, hidden in the tariff price increases.
“We don’t make any profit, it’s all just tariff increases.” FMTT
Here I am bringing everyone down when everyone knows that Fictional Reserve Lending is the only solution. Nothing better than money out of thin air & an economic system whose participants are delusional. Guys & gals I’m excited to see how thin one’s wallet will get in the future.
TR’s a party, waiting to happen!
Thank you for the anecdote, TR. If Smoot-Hawley is any guide, an aggressive tariff spree will rebound painfully on the US. I guess we’ll have to see exactly what Trump has in mind, though.
As noted in the thread, global trade is already in contraction (manufacturing, too), so it’s not surprising that protectionist impulses are kicking in. Unfortunately, they are the last thing we need right now.
When/if electronics see price increases, wonder how the general public that is obsessed with the latest tech will handle increased cost?
“Put it on the card, I’m making minimum payments.”
Where can one find a padded room for rent? The voices in my head are going to need a place to stay. I’m evicting them.
If Trump get the tariffs he wants first, does that mean that other countries can’t place tariffs on American exports? All the talk about TTT but not one economic genius has mentioned counter tariffs that I’ve seen. The Main Slime Media hasn’t mentioned what other countries options are?