A big thank you to October’s sponsor, Rusty Flanagan.
“Clean Energy Transition Faces Looming Metal Supply Crunch…
“The demand for metals essential for clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy systems is projected to increase by over 400% by 2030. Current mining production trajectories are insufficient to meet this surging demand.”
“World liquids supply and demand trend line reset lower after the 2020 Pandemic
“It is unlikely to regain its previous 35-year trajectory.”
[Art Berman]
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1844569574743666824
“Central bankers left holding the baby…
“Right now, the US economy is losing traction. China’s sliding into a European-style consumption slump. The eurozone is flirting with recession. So, the spotlight’s back on central banks to come to the rescue once again. All the major ones are at important turning points.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/central-bankers-left-to-hold-the-baby/
“China is not coming to rescue the global economy this time.
“China’s actions are unlikely to change the environment of disinflation, weak economic growth and the cycle of global monetary easing… It’s likely the fiscal stimulus is too small to move the needle and unlikely even to resolve the country’s housing market stasis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/94c8fef2-427c-4816-b2a6-bfda89370283
“Mixed US data keeps the Fed guessing…
“The September US consumer price inflation data is hotter than predicted by a tenth of a percentage point for both headline and core (0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively). This is the second consecutive 0.3% MoM print for core inflation, which as the chart below shows is not a great look.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/mixed-us-data-keeps-the-fed-guessing/
“Britain’s workforce faces the crisis of its life as productivity has fallen to Victorian-era lows and youth worklessness spikes…
“Productivity growth in the U.K. has flatlined since the Global Financial Crisis and has now been reset to levels of growth not seen since the 1850s, a new report published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi highlighted.”
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/10/10/britain-workforce-productivity-youth-worklessness/
“The gilt market faces the risk of a “buyers’ strike” if UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves borrows tens of billions more for investment…
“Ben Nabarro, chief UK economist at the US-based bank, said Britain would be less able to “flood the reactor and really contain that risk” than other economies given its reliance on foreign buyers for its debt.”
“EDF reportedly seeking up to £4bn from investors to finish Hinkley Point C…
“The utilities company, owned by the French state, has approached investors to help cover the ballooning cost of constructing the nuclear plant, which is understood to have reached almost £50bn…”
“France Hits Big Firms, Wealthy to Trim ‘Colossal’ Debt Pile…
“Spending cuts will account for just over two thirds of what Finance Minister Antoine Armand called an unheard-of fiscal effort, with the rest coming from higher taxes on businesses, the wealthy and energy.”
“Germany Sees Economy Contracting for Second Consecutive Year…
“A decline in output in 2024 — following a drop of 0.3% last year — would mark only the second instance of consecutive years of shrinking GDP since West and East Germany were reunified in 1990.”
“Europe must unite to avoid financial crisis, IMF managing director tells Euronews.
“As the world grapples with crises like COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, European leaders are increasingly aware that the continent must do more to prepare for future shocks. The IMF believes that Europe must stay together despite fragmentation within the single EU market to avoid a financial crisis.”
“EU weighs creating migrant ‘return hubs’ to speed up deportations.
“EU ministers met this week to discuss “innovative” ways to deport more undocumented migrants and rejected asylum seekers, including controversial plans to set up dedicated return centres outside the bloc.”
“Spain wants border agency Frontex to patrol African seas to curb migration.
“Spain’s Interior Minister on Thursday asked the European border agency Frontex to seek permission from African nations to patrol their waters in a bid to “save lives” on the perilous irregular migration route from the continent to the nearby Canary Islands archipelago.”
“The EU is helping Turkey forcibly deport migrants to Syria and Afghanistan.
“One of the last things Sami saw before Turkey deported him was the flag of the European Union. This spring, the 26-year-old Syrian was beaten unconscious at the gates of an EU-funded detention site in southern Turkey, stuffed into a bus and sent back to the war zone he had escaped from years earlier.”
“The EU will loan Ukraine €35 billion, repaid through interest on frozen Russian assets in a novel approach aiming to fund Ukraine’s urgent infrastructure and defence needs.
“The European Union has given the go-ahead to raise a loan for Ukraine of up to €35 billion.”
“Ukraine’s Zelenskiy outlines ‘victory plan’ to allies, discusses long-range weapons…
“Western officials and Zelenskiy have said the war with Russia is at a critical point. With a U.S election less than a month away and winter set to arrive in Ukraine amid a barrage of Russian strikes on key energy infrastructure…”
“British military chiefs are considering sending troops to Ukraine to train soldiers in “secluded” locations to help Kyiv’s recruitment efforts, sources have disclosed.
“Under the plans being discussed, small groups of British military trainers would travel to the west of the country to provide intensive basic training to new recruits…”
“North Korea says it will permanently ‘shut off’ border with South.
“North Korea said it would permanently seal its border with South Korea and cut off all roads and railways linking the neighbouring countries… North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared South Korea “No 1 enemy” early this year and said Pyongyang would no longer seek reconciliation and reunification with it.”
“Old devices, idle servers can be turned to spy on us, China’s top security agency warns.
“Foreign spy agencies have been using idle or discarded network devices belonging to Chinese firms, including servers and cameras, to launch cyberattacks and steal China’s national secrets, the country’s top anti-espionage agency warned on Friday.”
“Philippines confronts China over South China Sea at ASEAN meet.
“Marcos raised the issue in the meeting with Li, arguing that “you cannot separate economic cooperation from political security”, a Southeast Asian diplomat who attended the meeting told reporters.”
“Indonesia eyes hefty tariffs on China as businesses decry cheap imports…
“Minister of Trade Zulkifli Hasan has claimed that a flood of Chinese products into the local market due to the US-China trade war is threatening small businesses with “collapse”.”
“Tensions flare as Indonesian islanders resist China solar development.
“A violent confrontation between local villagers and officers of a land developer on the island of Rempang resulted in injuries and a police complaint. At issue is the 7,000-hectare Rempang Eco-City development on a small island that requires the eviction of thousands of local people.”
“The Indian rupee fell below 84-per-dollar for the first time ever on Friday, pressured by concerns over the recent jump in oil prices and the exodus of foreign money from the domestic equity market.
“The currency’s decline past the 84 handle is significant as the Reserve Bank of India had been defending that level for over two months.”
“Armed attackers kill 20 coal miners in southwest Pakistan.
“Balochistan is a hotbed of armed movements, with the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) most prominent among them. They accuse the central government in Islamabad of exploiting the province’s rich oil and mineral resources to the detriment of the local population…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/11/armed-attackers-kill-20-coal-miners-in-southwest-pakistan
“Iran’s Quds Force commander Qaani under investigation for suspicion of espionage…
“The sources reported that Qaani suffered a heart attack during his interrogation and was hospitalized, amid widespread concern about the extent of Israeli infiltration into the Iranian leadership hierarchy.“
“Israel’s Gallant vows ‘lethal, precise, surprising’ reply to Iranian attack.
“”Whoever attacks us will be hurt and will pay a price. Our attack will be deadly, precise and above all surprising, they will not understand what happened and how it happened, they will see the results,” Gallant added.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410091311
“A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader has warned Tehran could change its nuclear doctrine if Israel targets the Islamic republic’s atomic facilities…
““Some politicians have already raised the possibility of changes in [Iran’s] nuclear strategic policies,” Sanaei-Rad, a political adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told Fars, an Iranian news agency.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7578c164-eb23-4bb8-af8c-95dcc810a874
“‘Unacceptable’: World reacts as Israel fires at UN peacekeepers in Lebanon.
“UNIFIL – the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon – said on Thursday that two peacekeepers were injured when an Israeli tank fired at a watchtower at the force’s headquarters in the border area town of Naqoura, causing them to fall.”
“Somalia Gives Ethiopia Month’s End to Void Somaliland Sea Access Deal…
“As the deadline approaches, the situation remains tense, with implications for regional stability and the ongoing fight against extremist groups like Al-Shabaab, where Ethiopian military support has been crucial for Somalia.”
“Sudan’s RSF accuses Egypt of involvement in air strikes on its forces…
“Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, claimed that Egypt was using United States bombs in its strikes targeting his forces near Jebel Moya, a key area south of the capital, Khartoum.”
“Famine conditions in Sudan expected to impact 25 million people.
“Twenty-five million Sudanese citizens are on the brink of famine due to the lack of food, and the failure of aid to reach the needy people in displacement and refugee camps. The situation caused by the war is getting worse by the day.”
“Endless blackouts in Cuba: Electricity deficit exceeds 1,200 MW…
“Cubans, outraged by the continuous blackouts, have quickly expressed their frustration on social media. Some criticize the government’s poor management in the face of this energy crisis and denounce an unequal distribution of the electric service.”
“France announced on Friday new curfew measures to try and quell civil unrest on its Caribbean island of Martinique, which has been hit by violent protests over the last month due to anger over rising living costs.
“The local French administration for Martinique said it was banning public gatherings until Oct. 14, and banning the purchase of products that could be used for arson attacks.”
“Haitian armed gangs are recruiting starving children to swell their ranks ahead of an anticipated long and bloody battle with international security forces, a report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) has found…
“HRW says that up to 30% of Haitian gang members are now children forced into illegal activities as armed soldiers or spies or exploited for sex.”
“Bolivia natural gas shortage sends economy teetering.
“Bolivia’s once powerful natural gas industry is now on the verge of collapse as a result of a lack of investment and maintenance. The fall of the state-supported industry has sent shockwaves through Bolivia’s economy.”
https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/bolivia-natural-gas-shortage-sends-economy-teetering.phtml
“Asteroid mining: A potential trillion-dollar industry [this old chestnut again 😆].
“Asteroid mining is not a far-flung idea, Dano believes. “There are currently millions of asteroids in our solar system, and about 2 million of them are larger than 1 kilometer. The resources contained inside them are the new dream of El Dorado…”
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-asteroid-potential-trillion-dollar-industry.html
I rely on donations and tips from my readers to to keep the site running. Every little bit helps. Can you chip in even a dollar? Buy me a coffee or become a Patreon supporter. I personally acknowledge every donation individually. A huge thank you to those who do subscribe or donate.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
Did Guyana’s GDP and hence productivity virtually double between 2021 and 2022 (and has risen further since) because a) the workforce suddenly became better trained and managed, or b) it started to produce oil? The reason the UK productivity has been declining since 2000 is because oil and gas peaked and has been in steep decline since, and not much else. There was a study from Sheffield University a few years ago that showed the only thing correlated to productivity since about1975 has been North Sea energy production. Of course management consultants and economics journalists can’t say anything like that or they’d be looking for local shelf stacking jobs.
George, yes. The UK’s net energy problem is a huge part of what bemused mainstream economists have taken to calling the “productivity puzzle”. Unfortunately, there is no cure.
Fracturing in both England and the Netherlands is only a matter of time. Meanwhile, there’s this:
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/company-announces-plans-build-worlds-103059809.html
The “S” in SAF stands for sustainable… using all non-sustainable inputs.
Fossil fuels, as they are derived from biological sources, are bio fuels, and all biofuels are unsustainable, not just fossil fuels: their production is welfare to the Agricultural lobby and Red State policies of habitat destruction on steroids, equivalent to todays post re: Indonesian solar development that “requires the eviction of thousands of local people.”
Feed the machines, starve the people.
That’s the main driving force at the heart of all “renewable” fuel programs. The first Green revolution Fed the machines in order to feed the masses, this Green movement does exactly the opposite.
Rob, the UK had a flirtation with fracking but high population density, vociferous public opposition, a lack of infrastructure and some unexpectedly large earth tremors caused the government to place a moratorium on it in 2019. Funnily enough, the Netherlands (regular) natural gas field, Groningen, was also shut down due to seismic activity.
Perhaps we will see a panicked attempt to resurrect the industry in preference to the lights going out.
“The first Green revolution Fed the machines in order to feed the masses, this Green movement does exactly the opposite.”
That is an interesting observation. The first green revolution got going in an era of increasing net energy per capita, the latter in an era of net energy decline but with ever more complexity/machines to service, so I suppose machines are, in a subtle sense, encroaching on human food-energy… even as it happens in more direct ways, with workers losing jobs to automation/ai, agricultural fields being used for ethanol production etc.
It’s not just that the fields are used for production, it’s the fact that a new coal-fired power plant was built every week during the Bush administration to process the corn into ethanol (EIA figures: < 1000 in 2000, ~ 1425 by 2008); natgas for fertilizer;, oil for planting/harvesting; Oglala reservoir water for irrigation: 4 non-sustainable inputs, as well as complete habitat destruction to make fuel marketed as both sustainable and renewable. All funded to this day, 25 years after the pgm was started, by taxpayer dollars to Red States while simultaneously those same Red States decry Washington’s spending even as they siphon tax dollars straight into dividend payments to the already wealthy.
Hello Pan, a word about Hinkley point and the ‘quest’ for 4 billion… This sentence is quite telling. Surely it is yet another dramatic scenario for France and the UK.
…..EDF would reimburse investors if the nuclear project fails……
It looks like they are ‘anticipating’ the exit. I once geresearched today on ‘developments France 2030’ That mega-plan of Macron a few years ago and his plans to build 6 EPR (2.0) power plants out of the ground
You really can’t find anything about it, not about financing, even though it’s a Stattsa company. Everyone is only concerned with ‘the elections’ of 2025′ with Le Pen leading the way. July at the earliest.
Le Pen still has to ‘work out a taint in court over misuse of European funds’. That’s not a done deal yet by the way 🙂
And before you know it, ‘we’ in this political chaos are so another year away.
That’s pre-sorting for EDF on ‘maintenance’ but not on expansion, innovation and new construction….
The investors in this case are the French citizens, because in the budgeting plan, there would be a grab of the citizens’ “committed savings”….
I think the UK government did the same with Hinkleypoint via a clever funding ploy. But the file is so thick that I don’t have time to find out for a while….
Nuclear power on the way to the ‘exit’ might make a nice EDF essay.
Thanks, Zip. UK governments have, over the years, been very coy about Hinckley’s real costs, and the cost of waste-storage and (should we ever get there) decommissioning have been deviously foisted onto taxpayers in advance.
It’s sad; the UK is palpably in decline. A slow motion, de facto bailout of our crumbling water industry is already underway:
“The water industry regulator has been accused of overseeing a “stealth bailout of water companies” over proposals to increase bills by up to 44% over the next five years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/14/billpayers-in-england-and-wales-tricked-into-stealth-bailout-of-water-companies