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“A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics…
““The critical importance of the infrastructure that supports global trade has never been more apparent,” said Nicole Gorton-Caratelli, a trade expert with Bloomberg Economics… In times of peace and prosperity, ports operated out of public view unless something went wrong… All of that has now changed.
““A tiny little ragtag band of insurgents—the Houthis—are slugging it out with the US Navy for practically a year,” underscoring the vulnerability of the world’s sea lanes, said Isaac Kardon, senior fellow for Chinese studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Protection and security are the watchword now.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-global-ports-shipping-trade/
“Shipping waters incident highlights wider US-China tensions…
“Hostilities over shipping waters have led to increased tensions between China and the US and its allies today. This morning, China and the Philippines traded barbs over an incident in the disputed South China Sea…”
https://www.ft.com/content/01cb3cf9-474d-4019-bd6d-ef1c20f74e97
“Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat…
“President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States that, for the first time, reorients America’s deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/20/us/politics/biden-nuclear-china-russia.html
“Gold prices extended their record run on Tuesday, holding firm above the key $2,500 level, driven by a weaker dollar and growing investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates in September.
“Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,510.35 per ounce by 01:44 p.m. ET [1744 GMT], after hitting an all-time high of $2,531.60 earlier in the session.”
“US new bankruptcy filings hit 6,276 in Q2 2024, the highest level since Q2 2017.
“The number of companies declaring bankruptcy has DOUBLED in just 2 years. Chapter 7 filings, also known as liquidation bankruptcies, reached a whopping 3,151 in Q2.”
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1825695530510598184
“The number of [UK] companies that have gone insolvent over the past year has exceeded the number that failed during the global financial crisis in 2008.
“In the year to the end of July, 25,551 companies fell into insolvency, a figure 1.4 per cent higher than the 25,186 insolvencies recorded over the same period in 2008-09.”
“‘People are walking away’: UK windfall tax hits North Sea oil investment…
“Executives have sounded the alarm over Labour’s plan to axe allowances that enable companies to offset investment spending against their tax bill, saying the move would exacerbate a decline in the industry’s share of private sector investment.”
https://www.ft.com/content/375b3a33-ff9b-4c4c-9ce7-c117a5bfb10d
“[UK] Government borrowing above expectations and highest since pandemic…
“It means there was a £3.1bn difference between what the government took in from things like taxes and how much was spent on public sector services and that the government is under pressure to stick to its rule of borrowing only to invest and bringing down debt.”
“UK toughens stance on illegal migration with new deportation drive…
“Recent polls indicate that immigration control has become the top concern for British voters for the first time in eight years. This shift follows far-right riots targeting Muslims and migrants, which were sparked by the murder of three girls in Southport, northwest England.”
“Far-Right leaders stoke racial tension in Spain after murder of 11-year-old…
“In an incident with similarities to the recent UK killings in Southport, police have launched a manhunt to catch an unidentified knifeman who stabbed the child to death on Sunday. The far-Right Falange party immediately tried to connect the murder with high levels of immigration in Spain.”
“Frontex goes drone shopping as EU looks to keep migrants out…
“As member states call on the European Commission to enforce external borders, the EU’s border agency, Frontex, launched tenders totalling around €400 million, for equipment including purchasing more drones, and other surveillance technology.”
“China opens tit-for-tat probe into imported EU dairy products…
“The decision came after the EU revised down countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicle producers a day earlier, to which the ministry still voiced strong opposition.”
“The German pharmaceutical industry has warning of possible drug shortages after China tightened its espionage laws.
“Four out of Germany’s 16 states have now cancelled routine quality control trips to China by their inspectors as they’re concerned they could fall foul of the law.”
“Russia criticises German progress in Nord Stream sabotage inquiry…
“Russia has complained to Germany about its investigation into the 2022 sabotage of the multibillion-dollar Nord Stream gas pipelines that run between the two countries, accusing Europe’s top economic power of having little interest in finding those responsible.”
“Lithuania begins construction of base for German troops near Russian border…
“Lithuania on Monday (19 August) began construction of a military base, which will accommodate up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops once completed by the end of 2027, in the first permanent foreign deployment for the German military since World War Two.”
“Ukraine can join NATO even if Putin occupies its land, Czech president says…
“The former NATO general cited West Germany, which joined NATO in 1955 before unifying with Soviet satellite East Germany in 1990, as an example of an occupied territory joining the military alliance.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/occupied-ukraine-join-nato-czech-president-petr-pavel/
“Russia-Ukraine war: 120,000 Russians flee border areas, says state media; Zelenskiy says situation in Ukraine’s east is ‘difficult’…
“Residents have left their homes in huge numbers following Kyiv’s surprise counter-punch, TASS said… Russia said it summoned a senior U.S. diplomat to protest over what it called the “provocative actions” of American journalists in Russia’s Kursk region…”
“Belarus says it sends more troops, aircraft, armoury to border with Ukraine…
“Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, and radio-technical troops were deployed to the border, Lukyanovich said, according to a transcript provided on CTV’s website.”
“Putin visits Chechnya for first time in 13 years, meets troops readying to fight Ukraine…
“Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov on Tuesday inspected Chechen troops and volunteers readying to fight Ukraine, the Kremlin said, in what was Putin’s first trip in 13 years to the North Caucasus republic.”
“Thailand’s economy is nearly in crisis due to declining exports and uncompetitive manufacturing, the country’s caretaker finance minister said on Wednesday (Aug 21).
“Exports accounts for 70% of the economy but the manufacturing sector can’t meet market demand, Pichai Chunhavajira told a business seminar. “We can’t compete. We can’t adapt in time,” he said.”
“Myanmar’s Rohingya caught in crossfire of civil war…
“With the civil war in Myanmar growing ever more complex, various religious groups in the country are being caught between warring factions who seek to exploit ethnic divisions to further their own aims.”
https://www.dw.com/en/myanmars-rohingya-caught-in-crossfire-of-civil-war/a-69992809
“In Bangladesh, religious minorities targeted during political unrest…
“Parishad’s group estimates there have been more than 200 incidents where temples, religious crematoriums and other places of worship have also been vandalized and attacked by mobs.”
“Iranians struggle to access crucial medicines as sanctions hit supplies.
““The war we’re in right now is much harder [than the Iraq war],” said Arab, who heads the Iranian Thalassaemia Society, which represent those with the blood disorder. “Innocent people are dying, not because of injuries, but because sanctions have choked off their medicine supply.””
https://www.ft.com/content/012e9dbf-845f-4745-959e-9ac0a8ed8316
“Iran and Israel are already engaged in a fierce cyberwar…
“While many people fear the risk of a wider war breaking out in the Middle East, a parallel battle is already ongoing – in the digital sphere.”
“How Syria and Iran fuel regional instability through illicit drug trade…
“Over the past decade, the Middle East has witnessed a surge in drug manufacturing and trafficking, largely fueled by the Syrian conflict, with Iran proxies playing a major role… Captagon, a drug combining amphetamines and caffeine, plays a pivotal role in the illicit drug trade orchestrated by the two countries.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202408126589
“Artillery shelling | Clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed factions in Aleppo…
“Clashes erupted with heavy machineguns on Kafr Shakher frontline southern of A’zaz in northern Aleppo countryside, after Kurdish forces sneaked towards positions of Turkish-backed factions, coinciding with artillery shelling on positions of both parties…”
https://www.syriahr.com/en/342014/
“Türkiye’s economic crisis: Looming threat of stagflation…
“Türkiye is showing signs of stagflation, where stagnant growth meets persistent inflation. This economic condition, if it fully materializes, could lead to prolonged economic hardship, higher unemployment, and declining living standards, posing severe risks to both the workforce and businesses.”
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-economic-crisis-looming-threat-of-stagflation-42032/
“Oil Production Threatened as Libya’s Political Turmoil Deepens…
““In the absence of renewed political talks leading to a unified government and elections you see where this is heading – greater financial and security instability, entrenched political and territorial divisions, and greater domestic and regional instability,” Khoury also told the Security Council.”
“Blinken ends latest Mideast visit without a cease-fire, warning ‘time is of the essence’…
“There has been added urgency after the recent targeted killings of militant leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Iran and Lebanon, both attributed to Israel, and vows of retaliation that have sparked fears of a wider regional war.”
“What has caused the cholera outbreak in Sudan?
“…Sudan has been experiencing particularly heavy seasonal rains since June, with floods killing dozens of people… Water supplies have also become contaminated with cholera due to the floodwaters mixing with sewage.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/21/what-has-caused-the-cholera-outbreak-in-sudan
“After COVID and Ebola, doctors take on mpox amid conflict in eastern DRC…
“…for doctors in DRC – who have been tackling the latest mpox outbreak since 2022 amid medicine shortages, an ongoing rebellion in the east, and after years toiling on the front lines of Ebola epidemics – the challenges have become routine.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/8/19/drc-medics-take-on-mpox-after-ebola-covid-conflict
“Mpox: Argentina quarantines cargo ship over suspected case of virus…
“Argentine authorities have quarantined a cargo ship in the Parana River over a suspected case of mpox onboard, the government said on Tuesday, as global public health authorities remain on alert for a new faster-spreading variant of the virus.”
“Scientists are racing to understand how several house cats caught and died from bird flu in Colorado despite never having been outdoors.
“The United States is battling an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza that has now spread to nearly 200 dairy herds and at least 13 US farm workers have also contracted the virus since March…”
“Elon Musk’s Twitter deal may be the worst leveraged buyout deal for banks since Lehman, raising risks to Tesla…
“The data does not provide any indication as to whether X had breached its loan covenants, usually the first sign of distress, and the company did not respond to a Fortune request for comment. But reporting in recent months has indicated that Musk repeatedly sought to assuage banker concerns even as he sought less onerous terms.”
https://fortune.com/2024/08/20/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-leveraged-buyout-debt-banks-barclays/
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You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ”Climate” thread.
Lots of articles here about conflict and diseases….
Just a matter of when, not if on this one..
94 US Banks at ‘Serious Risk’ of Bank Runs, Including BNY, State Street, JPMorgan Chase and Citi: Report
https://dailyhodl.com/2024/08/17/bny-state-street-and-jpmorgan-chase-and-91-us-lenders-at-serious-risk-of-bank-runs-report/amp/
An analysis from Florida Atlantic University finds the billion-dollar banks in question – which include seven US financial giants – have all reported a 50% or higher ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits.
94 US Banks at ‘Serious Risk’ of Bank Runs, Including BNY, State Street, JPMorgan Chase and Citi: Report
A total of 94 US banks are at significant risk of experiencing bank runs by uninsured depositors if they show financial weakness, according to a new report.
An analysis from Florida Atlantic University finds the billion-dollar banks in question – which include seven US financial giants – have all reported a 50% or higher ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits.
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The University’s Liquidity Risk from Exposures to Uninsured Deposits index shows BNY Mellon has a 100% ratio of uninsured deposits, followed by State Street Bank at 92.6%, Northern Trust at 73.9%, Citibank at 72.5%, HSBC Bank at 69.8%, JP Morgan Chase at 51.7% and U.S. Bank at 50.4%.
Florida Atlantic University finance professor Rebel A. Cole says the banks are more vulnerable to liquidity crises because uninsured depositors are motivated to withdraw their funds quickly if they perceive any risk to a bank’s stability.
“The first bank failure of the year, Republic First Bank in Pennsylvania, was number 87 on the previous quarter’s list with a 51.5% ratio.
All of the banks on this list are at a serious risk of a run by uninsured depositors should they exhibit any weakness from commercial real estate exposures or unrealized losses on securities
…In this year’s failure of Republic First Bank, the FDIC quickly arranged for Fulton Bank to assume all deposits.
Not like it will matter too much at that moment…all will see the Emperor has no cloths
Good thing I don’t have any money in the bank, I guess. Kinda’ hard to pay the rent, tho’…
Thanks, Vince.
“All of the banks on this list are at a serious risk of a run by uninsured depositors should they exhibit any weakness from commercial real estate exposures or unrealized losses on securities.”
In the case of Credit Suisse – the largest bank failure of recent times – it was exposure to the collapse of hedge fund Archegos Capital and finance firm Greensill Capital that fatally undermined investor/depositor confidence, which was already waning due to a series of scandals.
Problems in shadow banking entities like Archegos and Greensill, which are much less tightly regulated than banks, seem to me the likeliest source of further failures:
“Shadow banking drives a rural Kentucky lender to the brink.. First & Peoples survived many disasters, but loans to a fintech may prove its undoing…
“First & Peoples is the most troubled of a growing number of small banks across the US facing problems due to ties to so-called shadow banks. Its struggles are illuminating the mostly hidden connection between the traditional financial system and the unregulated digital newcomers.”
https://www.ft.com/content/eae4b603-e4c0-429c-94c3-5fb8fa034eb3
There was an in-depth article about a recent bombing attack on Myanmar’s Rohingya. I think it was the Beeb.
Two survivors interviewed after they reach relative safety in Bangladesh. Militants dropping bombs from drones even as entire families fled to a river in a desperate attempt to escape. One man saw his sister in law killed by a bomb in front of him. She was holding his months old baby. He had to hastily bury its body on the river bank before he could pay a boatman to take him across. Another man witnessed his entire family killed by bombs. Bangladesh deports them, but they come back. The ones who make it are forced to live in squalid refugee camps.
My problems don’t seem so big anymore…
Jerry, this may be it:
“‘My family died in front of my eyes’: Harrowing tales from a Myanmar massacre… Fayaz and his wife believed they were moments from safety when the bombs began to fall: “We were getting on the boat one after another – that’s when they started bombing us.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx6w130q1ko
Oh my god 😱
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/21/microplastics-brain-pollution-health
More microplastic and health issues
Stunning article, Heather.
“The researchers found that 24 of the brain samples, which were collected in early 2024, measured on average about 0.5% plastic by weight.
“It’s pretty alarming,” Campen said. “There’s much more plastic in our brains than I ever would have imagined or been comfortable with.”
The study describes the brain as “one of the most plastic-polluted tissues yet sampled”.
“The paper also found the quantity of microplastics in brain samples from 2024 was about 50% higher from the total in samples that date to 2016, suggesting the concentration of microplastics found in human brains is rising at a similar rate to that found in the environment.”
“Another paper, which appeared on 19 June in the International Journal of Impotence Research, detected plastic particles in the penises of four out of five men getting penile implants to treat erectile dysfunction.”
“A handful of studies have also now found contamination in human placentas. A study that appeared in the May issue of Toxicological Sciences reported finding micro- and nanoplastics in all 62 placental samples, though the concentration ranged widely.
In Italy, researchers followed 312 patients who had fatty deposits, or plaques, removed from their carotid artery. Almost six in 10 had microplastics, and these people fared worse than those who did not: Over the next 34 months, they were 2.1 times as likely to experience a heart attack or stroke, or die.”
https://archive.vn/PFtdP
One thing all the conflicts & wars proves is that this species hasn’t evolved.
I’ve been feeling a disturbance in the Force.