“The era of globalisation is about to come screeching to a halt. The engine of prosperity that has propelled growth since the Cold War is on its way out…
“It is not in anybody’s interests to see a return to the sort of blanket protectionism ushered in by Smoot-Hawley. That particular piece of US legislation cast a long shadow over the 1930’s by prolonging the effects of the Great Depression, torpedoing world trade, and even complicating international efforts to contain Hitler. What a grim legacy.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/16/era-globalisation-come-screeching-halt/
“Xi, Putin hail ties as ‘stabilising’ force in chaotic world…
“”China is ready to work with Russia to… uphold fairness and justice in the world,” Xi said… Putin, in turn, told Xi the two countries’ relations were “stabilising factors in the international arena”… “Together, we uphold the principles of justice and a democratic world order that reflects multipolar realities and is based on international law,” he added.”
“China sold a record amount of Treasury and US agency bonds in the first quarter, highlighting the Asian nation’s move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist.
“Beijing offloaded a total of $53.3 billion of Treasuries and agency bonds combined in the first quarter.”
“U.S. defense spending and military aid costs are adding up.
“President Joe Biden signed a $95 billion U.S. military aid package in April 2024, allocating funding to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region. This is on top of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2024, which authorized military spending of a record $886 billion.”
https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2024/how-much-the-u-s-spends-on-wars-abroad/
“House passes Republican-backed bill designed to pressure Biden on delivering weapons to Israel…
“The Republican-led House passed a bill Thursday that would restrict the president’s ability to withhold weapons transfers to Israel in a vote that drew attention to the divided Democratic caucus on the war in Gaza.”
“Dow Jones hits record milestone as US bets on faster rate cuts.
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record 40,000 this afternoon, seen as a major milestone for the index which tracks 30 of America’s top companies… The index surpassed its previous record high of 39,935.04, hit on Wednesday, and has recovered nearly 40pc from its October 2022 lows.”
“Fed Officials Suggest Interest Rates Should Stay High for Longer…
“Several Federal Reserve officials said the central bank should keep borrowing costs high for longer as policymakers await more evidence inflation is easing, suggesting they’re not in a rush to cut interest rates.”
“The U.S. just took its biggest step yet to end coal mining…
“In one of its biggest steps yet to keep fossil fuels in the ground, the Biden administration announced Thursday that it will end new coal leasing in the Powder River Basin, which produces nearly half the coal in the United States.”
“Chevron to sell UK North Sea assets as it exits ageing oil basin.
“The US oil major said the decision to leave the North Sea was not related to the UK tax regime… Instead, Chevron said it had reviewed its global portfolio “to assess whether assets are strategic and competitive for future capital”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/353ca4ea-ce4c-4e1f-a717-7514b9112856
“Nuclear waste to be stored 650ft under the English countryside…
“The facility, which has yet to be allocated a site, will hold some of the 5m tonnes of waste that was generated by nuclear power stations over the past seven decades… The proposals come amid fears Britain’s stockpile of nuclear waste will grow in the coming decades with nowhere to put it.”
“As countries toughen anti-gay laws, ‘rainbow refugees’ seek asylum in Europe.
“Ella Anthony knew it was time to leave her native Nigeria when she escaped an abusive, forced marriage only to face angry relatives who threatened to turn her in to police because she was gay.”
“Fifteen countries ask Brussels to explore creating migrant centers outside the EU.
“The group, led by Denmark, supports Italy’s controversial model based on sending asylum seekers to Albania. The petition comes shortly before European elections at a time when immigration has become a hot button issue.”
“The Netherlands veers sharply to the right with a new government dominated by party of Geert Wilders…
“With hard-right and populist parties now part of or leading a half dozen governments in the 27-nation European Union, they appear positioned to make gains in the bloc’s June 6-9 election.”
“Europe’s Youth Are Fueling the Far Right.
“Evidence is mounting that Europe’s far right will score better than ever before in the upcoming European Parliament elections on June 6 to June 9—and that the continent’s young voters will fuel its ascent.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/europe-eu-elections-youth-far-right-populism/
“Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty in a year featuring many elections worldwide present risks to euro area financial stability, the European Central Bank (ECB) warned Thursday…
“Luis de Guindos warned the outlook remained “fragile”. “Geopolitical tensions are a significant source of risk for not only euro area financial stability but also global financial stability,” he said.”
https://www.barrons.com/news/geopolitical-tensions-threaten-eurozone-stability-ecb-dbf7a4f9
“EU under pressure after US levies tariffs on Chinese goods. Brussels scrambles to avoid being dragged into trade war…
“The bloc remains split on taking more muscular action against Chinese companies, also for fear of possible retaliation against European businesses.”
https://www.ft.com/content/31575d29-1945-4a90-8640-04967e1d1b2f
“Fico shooting not only exposes poisonous politics but Slovakia’s fractured zeitgeist… The country is at war with itself…
“The assassination attempt on Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister, is unprecedented in the country’s history. But the attack, which the premier is likely to survive, speaks to an increasingly poisonous atmosphere in the central European nation of 5.5 million people.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/16/roberto-fico-shooting-divided-slovakia-politics/
“As Russia Advances, NATO Considers Sending Trainers Into Ukraine.
“NATO allies are inching closer to sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces, a move that would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html
“Washington no longer rules out US weapons being used to strike Russian soil.
“Ukraine had been waiting for this green light for months. In a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, May 15, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian territory with weapons supplied by the US, for the first time since the Russian invasion in 2022.”
“Putin ally says Ukraine risks dragging the West into a major war with Russia…
“Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the State Duma, …said that Ukrainian lawmakers were trying to convince the US to allow Kyiv to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory. “This path leads to a tragedy that can affect all of humanity… Western politicians need to realise their responsibility and do everything to avoid bringing the situation to a global catastrophe.””
“Japan protests after China, Russia call released water “contaminated”.
“Japan has lodged protests with China and Russia after they referred to treated water released from the crippled Fukushima power plant as “nuclear-contaminated” in a statement issued after their summit in Beijing the previous day.”
“Japan’s economy suffered a worse-than-expected contraction in the first quarter, official data showed Thursday, in further bad news for its unpopular government.
“Gross domestic product in the world’s number four economy shrank by 0.5 percent against market expectations of a drop of only 0.3 percent.”
“Philippine ships deployed to watch activists sail to disputed Scarborough Shoal fishing area as China tensions grow.
“Three coastguard patrol ships, a plane and a navy vessel have been deployed by the Philippines to ensure the safety of around 100 activists and fishermen heading to a disputed fishing area in the South China Sea.”
“North Korea fires ballistic missile, South Korea’s military says…
“Earlier on Friday, the powerful sister of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said its tactical rockets were intended solely as a deterrent against South Korean military aggression, while denying that Pyongyang was exporting the weapons.”
“US announces new sanctions over North Korea-Russia arms transfers.
“The United States announced sanctions on Thursday on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, including ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine.”
“North Koreans Worked Remotely for US Firms to Fund Missiles…
“Posing as Americans, North Korean technology workers secured remote work contracts with hundreds of US companies as part of a scheme to help fund Pyongyang’s illicit nuclear weapons and missile programs, the US government said on Thursday.”
“Hezbollah introduces new weapons and tactics against Israel as war in Gaza drags on…
“Hezbollah has regularly fired missiles across the border with Israel over the past seven months, but the one on Thursday appears to have been the first successful missile airstrike it has launched from within Israeli airspace.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/hezbollah-ap-hamas-israel-iran-b2546626.html
“How the wheels came off Israel’s Gaza invasion. Hamas is resurgent in places the IDF captured months ago.
“When the Israel Defense Forces announced Hamas had been “dismantled” in northern Gaza, the troops had good reason to believe that their job was done… [but] despite the destruction, Hamas has mounted a resurgence in the area, bombarding Israel with rocket fire from the ruins of the city.”
“Japan, on Wednesday, reacted to US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s call for continued arms support to Israel, referencing the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Anadolu Agency reports.
“Japanese Foreign Minister, Kamikawa Yoko, expressed her disapproval of Senator Graham’s comparison made over the weekend, regarding the obligation of Japan to supply weapons to Israel.”
“Spain denies port of call to ship carrying arms to Israel…
““This will be a consistent policy with any ship carrying arms to Israel that wants to call at Spanish ports. The foreign ministry will systematically reject such stopovers for one obvious reason: the Middle East does not need more weapons, it needs more peace.” [Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares].
“Yemeni security forces deploy in Aden as anger simmers over lengthy power outages.
“Yemeni authorities have deployed security forces and armored vehicles across the port city of Aden, in preparation for the latest in a series of protests over hours-long electricity outages caused by a shortage of fuel for power stations.”
“Burst Oil Pipeline Risks South Sudan Violence, Economic Meltdown…
“A broken pipeline that exports about two-thirds of South Sudan’s crude production could heighten the risk of renewed fighting in the world’s newest nation if not repaired urgently, according to the International Crisis Group.”
“Sudan faces ‘inferno of violence’ and risk of famine, UN warns.
“Residents of conflict-hit Sudan are “trapped in an inferno of brutal violence” and increasingly at risk of famine due to the rainy season and blocked aid, the UN’s humanitarian coordinator for the country warned Wednesday.”
“‘The gangs are in charge’: Haiti’s outgunned police fight a desperate rear defence…
“Nine hours and countless bullets after gunmen began bombarding Stanley’s police station in Port-au-Prince, the twentysomething officer started fearing he would not make it out alive… “If you don’t hear from me, it’s because I’m dead,” he wrote…”
“Haiti’s crisis rises to the forefront of elections in neighboring Dominican Republic…
“As soaring violence and political turmoil grip neighboring Haiti, the Dominican Republic will hold elections Sunday that have been defined by calls for more crackdowns on migrants and finishing a border wall dividing the countries.”
“New Caledonia riots: parts of territory ‘out of state control’, French representative says.
“Tensions remained high in Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia, on Friday after days of riots as the French government’s representative said areas of the Pacific territory have “escaped” state control.”
“Construction Industry Braces for Impact as Copper Prices Rise…
“Recent increases copper prices could pose a significant challenge for the U.S. construction industry and the copper market. The primary drivers behind the escalating prices is projected supply-demand imbalances and the recent LME and CME ban on Russian copper.”
“The US government is open to easing sanctions on billionaire, Israeli mining magnate Dan Gertler if he gives up his business operations and assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo…
“The mines are rich in copper and cobalt… Gertler was sanctioned in 2017 by the U.S. Treasury for “hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of opaque and corrupt mining and oil deals” in Congo…”
“‘Blatantly failing’: Human rights abuses ‘widespread’ in transition metals mining sector, report warns…
“As the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies fuels demand for their components, human rights abuses linked to the supply of critical minerals show no sign of letting up.”
“Mining volcanic brine: a new era of mining could be about to erupt…
“Based at the Oxford Martin School, Royal Society Research Professor Jon Blundy is confident that the answer to mining’s problems is bubbling somewhere between two and four kilometres beneath the earth’s surface – specifically, under volcanoes.”
“Asteroid mining: Is the insurance industry ready for space?
““We have a couple of submissions in from companies that are looking at asteroid mining,” said Joseph Ziolkowski (pictured above). “It sounds crazy but there has been a massive amount of investment into companies that are building technology to mine asteroids.””
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Hello Pan,
Thanks for all your ‘uplifting’ posts like the stock market prices. By the way, the world is ruled by small and big villains and about one of them (a big villain) you had an interesting post today. The ‘Congo looter’ Dan Gertler… I guess it has to do with copper prices and scarcity in commodity markets, then the Americans want to get ‘accommodating’ for once.
In the link an interesting insight into our ‘rogue’ world and Gertler’s methods….
By the way, just a question. Is there anywhere to find a ‘longread’ on how Russia has got its ‘war industry’ out of the ground? There is a lot being destroyed, which needs to be replaced, so there on the Western Front is my guess
https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/grondstoffen/vs-willen-plooien-gladstrijken-met-congoplunderaar/10498936.html
Re Gertler, not that he is any way unique, but that level of greed and cynicism is beyond my understanding. Some people are just bottomless pits of ambition… Perhaps it has had some evolutionary benefit.
Re the Russian war economy, this is the most recent primer I can find (the usual disclaimer: I’m not endorsing the framing or the conclusions. This is from a Washington-based think tank, albeit a non-partisan one with a stated goal of advancing peace):
“Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.”
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/05/v-usloviyah-voennogo-bremeni-glavnye-voprosy-o-nastoyashem-i-budushem-rossijskoj-ekonomiki?lang=en
“Some people are just bottomless pits of ambition…”
Cheers, Pan.
Someone on reddit linked a blog post at “surviving tomorrow” about the levels of poverty in the UK. Take away the tax havens and tourist traps and the country is poorer than states like Mississippi. Apparently the entire populace is being stripped of everything of any value by a handful of bottomless pits of ambition. Canada and the US are well on their way in the same direction. Is it human nature? I mean, for real, greed so profound we would see everything on the planet die first?
“Climate and Economy” just doesn’t seem to do justice anymore. “Economy” is becoming just another word for exploitation and war (maybe always has been). And “Climate”…, well, need I say more?
Parts of the UK are indeed grindingly poor, Jerry. I don’t know about Mississippi but worse than pretty much anywhere else in NW Europe, certainly, with a marked North/South divide… The City of London is the world’s top financial centre and London is the wealthiest city in Europe with one in 39 of its inhabitants having at least $1 million of liquid, investable wealth.
Love the cheeky contrast at the end, on one hand the “market” can barely afford a relatively small increase in price and not having African children slave away in mines… yet somehow we’ll achieve some kind of techno utopia by launching complex, expensive, energy-guzzling spaceships with tiny storage spaces for cargo to mine metals on asteroids.
It’s quite emblematic of a lot of things in our late stage industrial civilization though, where the costs associated with the complexity of a process outweigh the benefits of its outputs.
The catch 22 is that due to the depletion of finite resources, the cost of their extraction keeps rising as we’re forced to extract from ever more difficult sources (asteroids being a sort of ridiculous example of an extreme end). This forces us to increase complexity to compensate, for example by introducing better technology, which allows us to use resources more efficiently (what economists call “higher productivity”).
Maintaining that complexity has its own costs, though. And the more sophisticated your system is, the higher the costs. On the other hand, the benefits of your complexity are constrained by the law of diminishing returns, where the initial advances provide bigger benefits than the latter ones. That means at some point, the chart of costs and benefits “inverts”, as the benefit line growth slows down but costs keep going up.
I think we’re past that point now.
But the big problem is that as the system crumbles under the weight of its own unsustainability, it won’t just be some abstract failure, but deaths of real people, collapse of real countries, governments, companies and livelyhoods. Understandably people and countries will desperately try to survive, but in order to do so, they will need access to ever more scarce resources. This is why I think there is unfortunately only one logical conclusion to our predicament – war.
“Love the cheeky contrast at the end.” Thank you!
Re asteroid mining, there is gold (and indeed other precious metals) in earthbound seawater and on deep sea beds, but we can’t even extract that profitably.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/gold.html
Nicely put. The perfect example of which is fracturing the earth to scrape the bottom of the oil barrel, releasing megatons of methane, CO2, & water vapor in the process.
But it is your last line I find the most hopeful: as mankind destroys itself in a paroxysmal conflagration, Nature will have a chance. In a debate I read about an abortion case where the issue was whether to save the mother or the child, it was argued that if you don’t save the mother you lose the child.
Analogously, if you don’t save Mother Nature, you lose Creation; far better to just lose that part of creation that is hellbent on destroying every other living creature along with their habitats, as illustrated by the ChinaRussia condemnation of the US, even as both leaders, dressed in Western-style clothes, running economies that blindly copy every aspect of US-style Vampire Capitalism, even while their citizens flee in droves across their closed borders, (neither of their economies has the capacity to absorb the output of their industrialized export behemoths).
Any victor in the coming debacle will only hasten the destruction that any global economy, built to support machines at the cost of living beings, would necessarily engender, illustrates the ubiquitous nature of capitalism’s ever-more creative means of expanding destruction. That that mentality should redound onto said species, resulting in its extinction via the products of its own design, seems to me to be little more than an inevitability.
Rob, I took the liberty of breaking up your comment into paras to make it more digestible. I hope I haven’t distorted the meaning of it at all.
Thank you, Pan; not in the least.
Here is cuite an economic link.
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/cars/news/russia-has-discovered-the-world-s-largest-oil-reserve-in-antarctica/ss-BB1mtXMj?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3d97ecd330294dc1ba060be041eb22b6&ei=32
I myself am not worred much about whether or not nature can recover after people are gone. If nature can recover, for what end? Will nature be waiting for the second arrival of Charleson Heston, this time on a space ship, so that he can lead the Bison in
a revolutionary victory over the Bears? (Or the Lions). Or will there be some Vikings around by then to send him packing back to where ever he came from.
Curt, this cropped up the other day. I was sceptical that the oil, in what would be militarily contested and extremely challenging waters, could be extracted, let alone at a cost that made it affordable to consumers.
I’ve since read a comment by Art Berman on X/Twitter, who is sceptical that any oil was found at all: “In 45 years in the O&G business, I’ve never seen a research vessel make a discovery. Nonsense.”
Mr Berman rocks … as in petro rocks (remember them? Everyone had to have a pet rock). Instead of claiming he “speaks truth to power “ (which is a waste of breath) he speaks the truth ABOUT power, which is far more helpful.
In the chart below, inflation each year is shown from 2014 -2024.
No matter what inflation is, in one year, the next year’s inflation eliminates the previous years inflation? Total inflation 2014 -2024 = 31.6 Wait! Stop! The only inflation is in 2024 @ 3.4. All other inflation is nonexistent. At least there is no profit made when inflation rises. Happily blind, stupid & do nothing species.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
No one is making more profit since 1964. This is the same year I began to realize what the O-word could do to the habitat. The cost of goods have only risen 3.4 which is 2024’s inflation rate. “… a gallon of milk was 93-cents.” just add 3.4 % & that’s the price today?
https://www.reference.com/history-geography/much-did-everyday-items-cost-1964-cfba9fcd6734ea4f
Inflation is price gouging & increasing the bottom line?
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/05/google-cloud-accidentally-nukes-customer-account-causes-two-weeks-of-downtime/
Tech will save us
Where’s Rain? Haven’t seen comments from her in a while.
Some may not want to be around a bunch of depressing doomers. 😉
Kali – thanks so much for thinking of me 🙂
Its much appreciated in these isolating times.
Just Real Life (TM) has intruded rather rudely these past few weeks, with time-consuming dramas, curbing my webtime.
Besides, not much to report from my own side of the Earth, with either climate or our economy.
My Facebook local petcircle group posted on the “lost and found pets”, a photo of an unusual pair of pet friends, a black labrador with a young lamb, wandering around the freeway in rush hour traffic..
Rain, I hope JRL stops being a pain in the arse soon and you can re-join us with some of your well-researched comments.