“Price of gold hits record high amid geopolitical tensions and investor jitters…
“Investors piled into the “safe haven” asset on Tuesday, with the spot price reaching a record $2,141.59 (about £1,685) for an ounce, beating the previous record of $2,135 in December, before easing back again to about $2,128.”
“Bitcoin Hits Record High, Completing a Stunning Comeback…
“Bitcoin hit a record high of more than $69,000 on Tuesday, capping a remarkable comeback for the volatile cryptocurrency after its value plunged in 2022 amid a market meltdown.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/technology/bitcoin-price-record-high.html
“People are worried (again) about bond market liquidity… But what they should be thinking about are the consequences…
“Historically, the focal point of most financial crises has always been banks. Given how disastrous their mass failure can be, central banks therefore almost always (if reluctantly) backstop the industry. But now that markets do more of the heavy lifting, central banks will increasingly have to wade in there to keep the financial system from imploding…”
https://www.ft.com/content/c289d5f4-477e-478b-9179-55c5e45a8b46
“The world is at risk of another financial crisis caused by US lenders’ reckless exposure to stricken commercial property markets, the IMF has warned.
“In a research paper on financial stability, the IMF said that a “weak tail of banks” had gorged on US commercial real estate and could create a repeat of the chaos last year triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.”
“A hidden crisis in US housing… In places most prone to wildfires and hurricanes, state “insurers of last resort” are absorbing trillions of dollars in risk.
“… even as states have assumed more and more risk, they’ve largely dodged a fundamental question: How will they cover claims in the wake of a truly major catastrophe?”
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-home-insurance-real-estate-crisis
“US banks abandon ‘bare minimum’ environmental standards project, alarming climate groups.
“Four of the world’s biggest banks have left the Equator Principles, a set of minimum industry standards and safeguards for financial institutions to address environmental and social risks in countries where they finance fossil fuel and mining projects.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/05/us-banks-leave-esg-finance-climate-crisis
“Canadian Banks’ Fossil-Fuel Exposure Outpaces US, European Peers…
“The five Canadian banks committed most of the financing to domestic oil and gas companies, the report found, with pipeline operators Enbridge Inc. and TC Energy Corp. and oil producer Cenovus Energy Inc. receiving a combined $61.9 billion in financing via the Big Five banks between 2020 and 2022.”
“Why Britain is ‘literally crumbling’ before our eyes… More tax cuts could cripple UK’s parlous public services, economists warn…
“Many believe there is no more fat left to trim and further cuts risk enraging voters as the fabric of the state unravels further. Public services are already a mess.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/05/britains-decrepit-public-services-cope-tax-cuts/
“Over 170 councils call for urgent extension of Household Support Fund.
“Ahead of the Spring Budget, more than 170 council leaders have called on the Chancellor to extend an essential scheme to help protect vulnerable households across the country before it expires at the end of this month.”
https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/over-170-councils-call-urgent-extension-household-support-fund
“Uzbekistan is the only nation more miserable than Britain as the Dominican Republic tops the world wellbeing charts, a ‘worrying’ global report has found.
“The UK only ranked 70th out of 71 countries in terms of mood, outlook on life and self-esteem in 2023, scoring only 49 on the mental wellbeing score when the global average was 65.”
“The European Union could block exports of weapons to Britain if war breaks out with Russia, it was announced on Tuesday.
“A top official said plans had been drawn up to prevent overseas shipments of arms and civilian technologies to make up for the bloc’s own shortfalls in a “security crisis”.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/05/eu-weapons-exports-britain-russia-war-defence/
“Ukraine war briefing: Macron says don’t be ‘cowards’ as he digs in over ground troops remark…
“Emmanuel Macron has urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting its fight against the Russian invasion. He “fully stood behind” remarks made last week not ruling out the deployment of western troops.”
“NATO is growing reckless over Ukraine – and Russia’s German military leak proves it…
“NATO’s strategy has lost all coherence. This is the moment when such wars run out of control. For two years now, western leaders have polished their macho images at home by visiting and goading Kyiv’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to seek total victory with their help.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/05/nato-ukraine-russia-germany-military-leak
“Russia’s Chinese Yuan Funding Lifeline Is Getting Too Expensive.
“Yuan financing is becoming costly and sparse in Russia, choking off a pathway to foreign capital for companies that are already facing much higher domestic interest rates and a wave of debt due this year.”
“Russia says it is considering putting a nuclear power plant on the moon with China.
“Russia and China are considering putting a nuclear power plant on the moon from 2033-35, Yuri Borisov, the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos said on Tuesday, something he said could one day allow lunar settlements to be built.”
“China’s deflationary trap could snare the global economy…
“This time, a Chinese deflationary shock threatens to unleash dangerous political currents in western economies. China’s tried-and-tested method to slash export prices to help to bolster its struggling manufacturing industry is a way of exporting deflation to the rest of the world.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinas-deflationary-trap-could-snare-the-global-economy-b8lqrr9bj
“Chinese and Philippine coast guards clash amid regional dispute with water cannons fired.
“Philippine and Chinese coast guards have clashed once more over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, ahead of a regional summit where leaders were going to raise Beijing’s aggression at sea.”
“Blackouts in Tajikistan Highlight Energy Woes.
“Tajikistan confronts many of the same issues as neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where water levels at critical reservoirs are approaching dangerous lows. Tajik authorities, however, are less transparent about the situation, as illustrated by the lack of comments on the blackout last week or available information regarding water levels at Nurek.”
https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/blackouts-in-tajikistan-highlight-energy-woes/
“Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister, has said that Hezbollah’s continued attacks on Israel are pushing the country to a “critical point” in deciding to pursue military action in Lebanon…
“During the meeting at Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, Mr Gallant also warned Hochstein that the Lebanese militant group is “dragging the parties to a dangerous escalation,” according to his office.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/05/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-updates-harris-biden/
“Can Israel afford to wage war? As the battle continues, costs are spiralling…
“In the next few weeks, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, hopes to gain final parliamentary approval for an emergency war budget.. it… contains a startling break with the past. Everyday welfare spending (long generous in Israel, owing to its socialist foundations) will be slashed to fund the country’s armed forces.”
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/05/can-israel-afford-to-wage-war
“Houthi attacks reveal murky world of ship nationality…
“The missile that struck the Rubymar near its engine room on February 19 forced the 20 crew and four security guards to abandon the vessel. It had been chartered by a Saudi commodities company, had picked up its cargo in the United Arab Emirates and was heading to Bulgaria.”
https://www.ft.com/content/90c55ef3-90e6-4f68-af8a-aafe87f8744b
“Crucial Red Sea data cables cut, telecoms firm says…
“Several undersea communications cables in the Red Sea have been cut, affecting 25% of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe… Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications said it had taken measures to reroute traffic after four of the 15 cables were recently severed. The cause is not yet clear.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68478828
“War in Sudan Risks Sparking Hunger Crisis for 25 Million People.
“Sudan’s war has put food security at risk for 25 million people across Sudan, South Sudan, and Chad, making it the biggest hunger crisis worldwide, World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain said, calling for unimpeded access and more funding to help communities.”
“Egyptians Are Buying and Selling Gold Just to Stay Afloat.
“Clamor for the precious metal is growing as the buying power of the country’s currency plunges in value against the dollar, and inflation eats away at savings… The turbulence has turned many people into reluctant speculators, their lives ruled by uncertainty and rumors.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/world/middleeast/egypt-economic-crisis-gold-price.html
“Nigeria battles to halt spiraling currency crisis and rising food insecurity…
“Inflation hit an annual 29.9% in January, driven by soaring food prices that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Africa’s largest economy. The naira currency, meanwhile, plunged to an all-time low of around 1,600 against the U.S. dollar in late February.”
“Cuba turns off some public lighting as energy crisis worsens…
“Minister of Energy and Mines Vicente de la O Levy told a council of ministers meeting the measure was one of many that included shuttering thousands of state services and shifting production to lessen the blackouts roiling the country, according to state media.”
“Top Haitian gang leader warns of civil war, ‘genocide’ unless PM resigns…
“The stark comments from Jimmy Cherizier, known as “Barbecue,” came as Henry appeared to be struggling to fly home, with the main airport under attack and neighboring Dominican Republic refusing permission for him to land.”
“The environmental cost of AI.. Data centres are becoming some of the biggest consumers of power and water…
“The International Energy Agency says data centres, cryptocurrencies and AI accounted for almost 2 per cent of global power demand in 2022 — and this could double by 2026 to nearly match the electricity consumption of Japan. Ireland, a favoured location for server farms, is now limiting new data centre connections to the power grid; others are exploring whether to do the same.”
https://www.ft.com/content/323299dc-d9d5-482e-9442-f4516f6753f0
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Looks really bad in Haiti and watching much coverage on local TV here in South Florida.
A very large Haitian population here and with this collapse, many more arrivals to come.
This has been going on for decades now, along with other neighboring nations.
Along with climate change and financial hardship, the kettle is boiling..
Too much to digest today, Justin..hope and wishes for all a good day.
“hope and wishes for all a good day.”
Thanks, Vince. I can’t complain. Doing my best to take a ‘glass half-full’ attitude to life. Not always easy. 😆
Hello Pan very interesting summation of a collapse in ‘slow motion’ and that applies even to Haiti… what all ‘happened’ there over the past decades cannot be described with any pen. Ah poor, Africa…. who sails under what flag and where to…. an incomprehensible jumble of what were once proud national merchant shipping companies. ‘The Red sea Shark’ with Captain Haddock at the helm and Tintin as a stubborn journalist…. Sure a nuclear power plant on the moon …. why not ! The Netherlands wants to build as many as four big nuclear power plants while the grids are exploding and no one can figure out how to supply power from solar panels…. The Netherlands has the densest amount of solar panels in the world (they say)….
France has news today…..the announcement of the collapse of the welfare society. Only they tell it differently.
…..French government deficit ‘skyrocketing’.
Bruno Le Maire announced that the public deficit, the government’s target, “will be significantly higher than 4.9%”. This is due to the significant loss of tax revenue, He stressed that he wants to reduce public spending, hence the recent announcement of 10 billion in cuts by 2024, which “are not austerity but an emergency brake procedure”. With “growth suffering from the effects of new geopolitical tensions and tax revenues falling, we have to take it much easier”.
Compared to last January, tax revenues fell by 2.3 billion euros.
This drop is explained by “the fall in net VAT and higher transfers to local authorities and social security bodies”. According to Bruno Le Maire, the reduction in public spending is “a first step” towards a major clean-up of public spending. That will be followed by “an amended budget law in the summer and the budget law for 2025, “in which we will have to find at least 12 billion euros of rxtra savings”.
Two weeks after announcing an interim controversial €10bn savings plan, ministers Bruno Le Maire and Thomas Cazenave are due to explain today before the Assembly and Senate Finance Committees….
https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/le-deficit-public-depassera-significativement-l-objectif-de-4-9-en-2023-annonce-bruno-le-maire-20240306
It is a very similar situation in the UK, Zip, where the Conservative government announced its budget today. The Chancellor has basically kept public spending at the same level announced in the autumn statement. He daren’t cut with an election pending, but the future is bleak:
“The situation from April 2025 onwards is bleak, with real spending per head on unprotected services set to fall by 3.0% per year, down from 2.5% per year in the November forecast as a result of a higher projected population. The reality is that these spending plans will be impossible to deliver…
“The government bequeaths a dismal public services legacy to whoever wins the general election.”
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/five-things-we-learned-spring-budget-2024
Interesting twist on geo-political collapse, and certainly one I don’t recall seeing mentioned before. What happens when nations can simply no longer afford to fight “conventional” war?
Not enough money, not enough supplies, not enough ammunition. If your only option is either lose the war or turn to your last resort…
How many leaders have enough control to NOT use nukes? Out of those, how many would get overthrown by their military if they DON’T use nukes in the face of imminent defeat?
The odds don’t seem to be in our favor.
Well, there are nine states with a nuclear arsenal: United States, Russia, the UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea, with Iran doing its best to join the club.
Only Russia and Israel are directly engaged in international wars right now, but obviously the broader context is one of worsening geopolitical friction and destabilisation.
I don’t have much knowledge about the nuclear protocols within these states and therefore how likely it is that an individual leader could authorise a strike effectively out of frustration. My guess is that only Kim Jong Un has that capacity and my sense is that he is all about leveraging the threat of military action rather than actually using it.
Scientific studies have shown that even a limited nuclear war would have global ramifications and in all probability guarantee the starvation of billions:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/08/15/even-a-limited-nuclear-war-could-kill-billions-by-starvation-study-finds/
I would hope that those holding the levers of power are cognisant of this and, accordingly, reluctant to score such a spectacular own goal – but us humans are a pretty crazy bunch and these are volatile times, so who knows?
Jerry
“What happens when nations can simply no longer afford to fight “conventional” war?”
Was listening to Alistair Crooke on podcast, speaking on this in relation to both Russia and Israel/West Asia. Saying it was pretty much nonsense that Russia would go beyond Eastern Ukraine, or NATO stand up to Russia for that matter. Even combined, NATO just can’t afford it – neither can Russia. It would much rather spend its war chest on other things, but can’t afford to ignore the threats US/NATO keep making. Russia can’t afford to interpret those threats as just bluff and political theatre – but I think the Western leaders see Putin’s threats as just bluff…
so go ahead idiots, call Russia’s bluff and we’ll see 🙁
This isn’t pre-World War 2 with plentiful energy and massive industrialised economies. Takes years to build up a war economy. Russia just wants Ukraine de-militarised and as a neutral non-threatening neighbour, and has gone so slow partly because the Donbass region had been so heavily fortified by Ukraine in the 10 years before the invasion and partly because Russia is using a strategy of relatively careful attrition of Ukraine forces, bases and equipment.
With Israel’s insane behaviour, the Axis of Resistance are stepping up their controlled escalation and “slow attrition” strategy. I believe Crooke’s idea is Phase 2 is about to start, probably to coincide with Ramadhan if Israel doesn’t back off. Phase 1 – low intensity hits on Israel (and allies) to hurt its economy, and increase attrition and diversion of Israeli military forces, bases, equipment etc (and by extension US). Supposedly according to Crooke, Phase 2 of moderate intensity, slightly more powerful weapons, may also last 4-5 months, and if Israel still doesn’t back off – we don’t want to see Phase 3, but if Israel wants to take it that far, it might be timed with the USA November election.
Israel’s economy is sinking fast, and its latest Budget has also put in austerity measures, social welfare cuts etc. Meanwhile an average of 1,000 Israelis per week are voting with their feet and leaving on one-way tickets.
And speaking of which, congrats to George Galloway and the voters of Rochdale –
what a hoot of an interview?
In all this misery, I can’t remember the last time I genuinely laughed at the news..
“little Rishi” going way over-the-top in an impromptu presser on such “attacks on democracy”..
oh get a grip Rishi! we have a Westminster system too – with odd backbenchers, independents etc, but with no real power, just making background noise … but that’s democracy, Westminster style LOL
‘Sunak and Starmer, two cheeks of the same backside’… bwahahahahaha
Ignorance, Hubris, and Stupidity
“I genuinely want people to understand the truth about where we are within these systems and predicaments and what can and cannot be done about them. Most people’s responses are fueled by a desire to “fight” one of the symptom predicaments such as climate change or energy and resource decline. Sadly, a considerable number of those folks read or hear something about stopping or reversing climate change or emissions or any other symptom predicament and get the incorrect idea that this is actually possible. Every once in a great while, people are discussing attempting to stop or reverse overshoot, although this is much more rare. I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but stopping and/or reversing these predicaments isn’t on the menu of options. They can, at best, be reduced or slightly mitigated. Overshoot will most likely be reduced fairly soon because the surplus energy that has fueled our overshoot is beginning to come to an end. Billions of people will face die-off. This is part of collapse. It cannot be prevented. All of this is something that literally billions of people are in denial about. For those of you who have seen this and tolerated the ad hominem attacks, name-calling, and being labeled “doomers” or suffering from doomism, I understand and empathize with you.”
https://erikmichaels.substack.com/p/ignorance-hubris-and-stupidity
The combined west no longer possess the industrial ability to keep it’s proxy war puppet Ukraine supplied with enough artillery shells, which is only slightly related to rocket science.
When Covid hit, western nations had long dumped their stocks of PPE and were unable to meet their citizens demands for ass-wipe and hand sanitizer. It took like two years to catch up to that.
Ignorance, Hubris, and Stupidity indeed. A nuke war would be the only way we could defeat any major enemies, which is murder-suicide, not a war. A war that involves a series of key strokes and key turns & big Red buttons pushed – then flashes of light, instantly burning to ash, with survivors dying from nuclear fallout. What would we do against them in a conventional war? Sic our morbidly obese, uber sensitive, cancel culture generation on the Russians and Chinese so they can Social Media berate them to death with their endless hyper moralizing? Never has there been so many so certain in their convictions, yet so completely unwilling to spill their own blood defending them while calling for the blood of others. Given the sudden ubiquitousness of drones in 21st century warfare at least there will be a place for our portly, advanced level video gamers to throw down our enemy and smote his ruin upon the mountainside and such.
Action is the antidote and all that.
OMG! An O-word, overshoot. The proper O-word for the global economy is currency overpopulation. Monkey minds have pumped the system to overflowing with “out of thin air” fiat currency, debt, as money, that can’t be paid back with “as if by magic” currency, bailouts, low to zero interest & low tax rates for the chosen few, etc., which can lead to economic extinction in a system of infinite profit of finite money. It’s time for me to research how many currencies are supported by something more than delusions. Any one hear of the only true backing for a currency, Gold Standard? That can’t work,when the currency value of gold varies. Manipulation is not an economic virtue.
FS(stupid)TT! Crypto will save the global economy. Golden tokens have what true physical value? A physical bitcoin is a digital currency in a physical form. I didn’t realize that 1s & 0s were worth so much. 😉
Truth is like Whack-a Mole, popping it’s head up where no one expects it .