“How complacency has set the stage for another financial crisis… The global economy is on the brink of a perilous financial collapse, and the lack of curiosity about the true risks has allowed a dangerous situation to fester.
“The facade of stability is deceptive as strong headline gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, job growth data and declining inflation figures mask an imminent financial crisis fuelled by excessive government spending and restrictive credit conditions.
“Debt-to-GDP ratios have reached levels not seen since the Second World War…”
“G-20 Stays Quiet on Debt After China Delegates Raised Objections.
“Global finance chiefs are poised to march out of their Group of 20 meeting with a sense of collective reticence to talk about just how much they’re borrowing… The omission is all the more remarkable considering the fiscal legacy of pandemic and inflation-related support that has left a mountain of borrowing across many of the world’s biggest economies.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/g-20-gets-coy-debt-161904594.html
“Global Savings Glut’s Demise Threatens Higher Borrowing Costs…
“Aging populations, an embattled Chinese economy and an increasingly fragmented global one are among the factors threatening to turn the surplus of savings the former Federal Reserve chair identified almost 20 years ago into a shortfall.”
“New York Community Bancorp goes from bad to worse.
“For a $100 billion bank to lose both its chief audit officer and chief risk officer might be considered a misfortune. For the same bank to then lose its CEO, while admitting that it had no “internal control over financial reporting,” looks like carelessness.”
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/new-york-community-bancorp-stock-news
“Nearly one in 10 English councils expect to go bust in next year, survey finds…
“The Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) annual poll of local authority leaders and top managers reveals a near-total collapse in confidence in the financial viability of councils as they grapple with “desperate” pressures and shrinking budgets.”
“Labour will inherit ‘worst economic situation since Second World War’, shadow chancellor warns…
“Labour will inherit the worst economic situation of any incoming government since the Second World War, Rachel Reeves warned today, accusing the Conservative Party of “burning the house down” during its time in government.”
“Sunak unveils police crackdown on protests at democratic venues…
“Rishi Sunak on Wednesday set out plans for a police crackdown on protests that cause “alarm or distress” at venues including parliament, as the government sought to toughen its approach to pro-Palestinian demonstrators following Israel’s war against Hamas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9d21b6d5-08ae-4504-a7fd-c80cddfe89b8
“Switzerland must strengthen its banking controls, a global financial watchdog said on Thursday, highlighting the risk a failure of UBS would pose to the country in the starkest warning yet of the perils arising from its rescue of Credit Suisse.
“UBS Group opens new tab last year emerged as Switzerland’s one and only global bank, after a state-backed move to avert the biggest banking collapse since the global financial crisis.”
“Private equity-owned German real estate lender Aareal Bank warned there was “more to come” after one in four of its US office loans went into default last year.
“The warning highlights how the strains in US commercial real estate are being felt outside North America…”
https://www.ft.com/content/de4f0675-c81f-4312-b291-f8018a2bc06d
“Germany to deploy troops in Lithuania, first move of its kind since World War II.
“As NATO allies continue to reject calls to send ground troops into Ukraine, around 5,000 German soldiers are preparing to relocate to Lithuania in 2027, in a historic move that will see the first permanent deployment of German troops since the Second World War.”
“The picturesque Swedish town being turned into a strategic military hub.
“By the end of this week Sweden could be a member of NATO, ending 200 years of neutrality and military non-alignment. But even before it cleared the final hurdle, the Nordic nation was already busy reordering its defences – transforming the central town of Ostersund into a military hub.”
“Western leaders “shouldn’t be afraid” to stand up to Russia and “shouldn’t be afraid of own power,” Estonia’s prime minister has told Sky News.
“Kaja Kallas, whose country borders northwestern Russia, said everything should be considered when it comes to how the West supports Ukraine’s war effort.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned NATO against sending its troops to help Ukraine, in an explicit nuclear threat.
“”There has been talk of sending NATO contingents to Ukraine. But we remember the fate of those who sent contingents [in the past]. Now the consequences for the interventionists will be much more tragic,” Putin said in a speech to Russia’s parliament.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-new-speech-ukraine-war-transnistria-nato/
“Germany Attacks Houthi Targets for the First Time.
“Germany deployed a naval frigate to the Red Sea for the first time to confront Houthi attacks, becoming the second European country, after France, to carry out such operations… The Western strikes have included over 300 raids targeting Houthi sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz, Hajjah, Saada, and Dhamar.”
https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4884011-germany-attacks-houthi-targets-first-time
“UN calls for investigation after reports Israeli troops ‘fired on Palestinians waiting for aid’.
“The UN secretary-general has called for an independent investigation into an incident that allegedly left 100 Palestinians dead. Gaza officials say Israeli forces fired into a crowd of people waiting for food aid – while Israel said aid truck drivers “ploughed” into the crowd.”
https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-hamas-israel-latest-30-000-deaths-sky-news-live-blog-12978800
“Israeli forces have hit Iran-backed militia in two locations near Damascus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has reported.
“Syria’s defense ministry also reported Israeli strikes near Damascus Wednesday night, marking the latest in a series of attacks against Iran-backed forces in the region.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202402298836
“One person killed at anti-government protest in Syria’s Sweida province.
“At least one person has died of gunshot wounds sustained in an anti-government protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the southern province of Sweida, according to local news outlets and monitoring groups.”
“Hardliners set to tighten grip in Iran vote as frustration mounts…
“The election is the first formal measure of public opinion after anti-government protests in 2022-23 spiralled into some of the worst political turmoil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran’s rulers need a high turnout to repair their legitimacy, damaged after nationwide protests.”
“Somalia has signed security deals with the United States, Turkey and Uganda in recent weeks as multiplying tensions in the Horn of Africa raise fears of possible armed conflicts in the region.
“An agreement signed with Washington commits the U.S. to building five military bases for the Somali army to bolster the counter’s military capacity…”
“South Sudan warns of economic collapse due to disruptions in oil pipelines…
“Minister Lueth revealed that the pipelines transporting South Sudan’s crude oil to the international market face difficulties due to the ongoing war in Sudan. This war has hindered efforts to maintain and repair pipelines affected by the conflict.”
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
“Chad fighting: Heavy gunfire in N’Djamena after attack on security HQ.
“Several people were killed in Wednesday’s attack, the government said – blaming the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders… The unrest comes a day after the announcement that Chad will hold presidential elections on 6 May.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68424115
“Ghana president addresses nation amid worst economic crisis in decades.
“Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo said he was taking personal responsibility for the country’s economic crisis, the worst it has seen in a generation, as he delivered a state of the nation address in parliament on Tuesday.”
“Fuel Crisis in Lae [Papua New Guinea]: Motorists Face Rationing, Operations at Standstill Amidst Shortage…
“This shortage is part of a larger crisis affecting the country, with major fuel importer Puma Energy halting further supplies, leading to widespread operational challenges across various sectors.”
“Cuba’s government has for the first time asked the UN’s food programme for help as food shortages on the Communist-run island worsen.
“The request is a sign of the seriousness of Cuba’s economic crisis. As well as a shortage of milk, fuel and medicines are also running low… from Friday, the fuel that is available will cost five times as much as a price hike comes into effect.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-68434845
“”There are no winners in the current globalization crisis,” says Brazilian Finance Minister at G20 summit…
“Haddad said that the poorest countries are bearing increasing environmental and economic costs, while their economies are under threat from a growing wave of protectionism on the part of the rich countries… The minister also warned that a significant portion of the poorest countries’ income is seriously compromised by debt servicing…”
https://www.g20.org/en/news/there-are-no-winners-in-the-current-globalization-crisis-says-haddad
“The world’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose yet again to a new high in 2023 despite fossil fuel use falling in the advanced economies of the EU and US, the latest International Energy Agency report shows.
“This runs counter to the need for emissions to be cut by almost 45 per cent by 2030 to limit long-term global warming to no more than 1.5C since the pre-industrial era.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d3944463-19a1-4f08-bdfd-f3d69f846ccb
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Well played with that first article Pan 👏 🤣🤣
Thank you, Twocats.
I thought the second article was an eye-opening addendum to that first one, with the G20 apparently agreeing to enter a state of collective denial about dangerously elevated debt-levels:
““The issue isn’t debt, it’s growth, the best way of getting rid of a high level of debt is getting more growth,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters in Sao Paulo on Wednesday.”
absolutely, paired like apple and cheese
Some finesse in your placement of articles? yes, from the G&M Canada’s ‘paper of record’ privately owned by the Thomson family, also owners in Reuters. Definitely pro growth pro trade, pro US. Ironic to me that they are warning about exactlyl the consequence of neolib global G20 hegemony.
So many articles today about war! What am I missing about the military threat from Russia? Why 5 military bases in Somalia to be built by US contractors? The near East is exploding with three countries Natostans, piling on Sudanese Houthis.
This is our last decade of “stability”.
That’s a nice wish…last decade….if so might enjoy a few years of so called retirement..but I doubt it….how can one enjoy with all this coming at us…
PS If that’s the worse that happens to me, not having a retirement, I’ll consider myself very lucky indeed.
Don’t see how this can work..but the can keeps on kicking down the road
What the statement about growth being the answer to our economic problems the day after we were gifted with Frank Fenner’s (thnx, Doc) warning that economic growth = ecological collapse, makes quite clear is that, as Clinton once opined, “It’s the stupid economy”.
But that’s just because, per the NYT’s Paulyanna Krugman, is that we just don’t understand growth:
https://robertlowrey.blogspot.com/2014/10/pollyanna-krugman-advocating-pseudo_17.html
“Energy is generated in all biological and economic processes, in order to do work, and thereby generates waste heat, but then more must be generated for the next task its user needs it for. It is never, in any of all the methods used to generate it anywhere in the known universe, “renewable”.”
It’s amazing what effective smoke-screens words like “clean”, “green”, “sustainable”, “eco-friendly” and “renewable” are.
I’m noticing that more and more of the advertising to which I am exposed (mostly through YouTube because I’m too stingy to spring for their Premium service) is trying to sugar-coat our rapacious consumption with these and similar words or terms. “Ethically sourced” is another… “Kinder to the planet”…
They just make me feel worse, jaded soul that I am. I’d be down for an ad campaign that fessed up and said, “Our product is hell for the planet – there’s no getting around that, honestly; it’s an ecological nightmare. But it’ll give you an awesome dopamine hit to briefly numb the existential dread, so rock on!”
I don’t know how Pan feels about plugging other people’s blogs, but Tim Morgan is doing an excellent job of using his SEEDS model to narrow down just what to expect in the next few years.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/02/26/271-peak-almost-everything-part-one/
He is pretty tightly focused on the economics of surplus energy, so little consideration for ecological collapse, but his analysis suggests that overall growth in prosperity due to obscene amounts of surplus energy has, in fact, ended and it is pretty much all downhill from here as the price of essentials continues to increase and forces a steep drop in discretionary spending.
My own gut feeling is that the wealthiest billion or so people in the world will get a little poorer, the five or six billion merely poor people will get crushed into abject poverty, and the billion or so people who are already barely hanging on by their fingernails will simply fall right off the face of the Earth.
Rinse and repeat for the next few decades, barring a global catastrophe.
Jerry, I certainly don’t mind Tim’s blog getting a mention in my comments section. He’s a very concise and elegant wordsmith, and I’ve learnt a lot from his analyses over the years. Needless to say, I agree with his conclusion:
“A point that cannot be emphasised too strongly is that economic deterioration, with all of its attendant stresses, is moving from the predicted to the experienced.
“Some discretionary sectors are already contracting. Politics is already becoming dysfunctional. The hardship being presented officially as a temporary problem is, in reality, a foretaste of the shape of things to come – or, perhaps more aptly, the shape of things to go.”
Ahhh.. I paid out the last peanuts balance on my house mortgage!
modest *happy dance*
Years ago when I retired, I left a small principal balance owing on the mortgage, Just-in-case I needed to borrow a chunk of money in an emergency – back-when interest rates were super cheap.
(Its easier to refinance an existing loan, than start a new loan from scratch).
Then forgot about it … *snirtle*
And the nice lady at the bank who handled the transaction, ..
insurance… sheeish.. I’ve been paying way more than I should for far too long.
*hhmmpphh*..
I’ve got some “discretionary income”?
Probably have to spend it all on inflation, in food & energy costs 🙁
This, in my not-so humble opinion, is the best comment section on the intertubes. Sach’s Planetary Dialectics, is superb, and I got it from this site, so, if you’d like, take a peek at Matt Savinar’s “The Oil Age is Over”, like Sachs work, it’s a generation ago, yet more accurate than most prognostications being made today. Specifically, the war-mongering … 😞 sadly, it’s only just begun.
“This, in my not-so humble opinion, is the best comment section on the intertubes.”
Rob, that is a very kind compliment.