“Big news from the latest ERA5 data.
“For the first time in recorded history, the 180-day running mean for the global surface temperature just crossed 1.70°C above the pre-industrial 1850-1900 IPCC baseline.”
“I can’t believe how accurate this Global Sea surface Temperature forecast (dashed lines) from June last year turns out to be (solid red and pink lines).
“While the 2015-2016 Super El Niño was much stronger!
“Something else is at play here…” [Leon Simons, suggesting that aerosol demasking is a major factor in this].”
“And while we weren’t looking, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have been spiking, as of yesterday back up to 4σ above the 1991-2020 mean.”
“Bird flu causing ‘catastrophic’ fall in UK seabird numbers, conservationists warn.
“The UK has lost more than three-quarters of its great skuas on surveyed sites since bird flu struck, according to the first report quantifying the impact of H5N1 on seabird populations. The deaths have happened over two years, since the outbreak of H5N1 in 2021.”
“As winter gets warmer, spring is a month early this year [Netherlands]…
“The warm winter has led some trees and flowers to bloom early, up to a month earlier than they did 50 years ago, according to a report in wildlife news website Nature Today. Between 1940 and 1959, the average temperature in January and February was 2.1° but that has now risen to 5.4°, the researchers say…”
“Insane record warm nights in EUROPE:
“18.1 MIN [64.6F] in GIBRALTAR, 17.5 Faro PORTUGAL [warmest Feb nights], Tmins over 15C in ROMANIA at Calarasi. Hundreds of records are falling in Central Southern Europe from Portugal to Russia excluding Italy. This week tons of records will fall again from West to East.”
“Exceptional warmth in SERBIA: Insane Minimum temperatures up to 15.5C / 59.9F (like in June!), the highest ever in February in Serbia.
“The capital Belgrade also destroyed the record with 14.5C. In SLOVAKIA highest Tmin in February for Hurbanovo. Next tweet: Record warmth in HUNGARY…”
“Two wildfires break out on Zakynthos island [Greece].
“A wildfire broke out on Sunday in the village of Kato Gerakari on the island of Zakynthos. Strong firefighting forces swiftly responded to the scene as powerful winds, reaching up to 8 Beaufort, swept through the area.”
“Five months after floods, Thessaly awaits recovery.
“While the news focus is firmly on the farmers’ protests across Greece, attention on the dire situation in one region, in Thessaly, has somewhat faded, except for the locals, who are still awaiting a recovery plan five months after the disastrous floods…”
“Total insanity in AFRICA:
“Hundreds of records are being brutalized all over: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Congo, Nambia, Botswana, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania… CONGO and IVORY COAST are near beating their hottest days in climatic history. Mind blowing 41.3C [106.3F] at Gobabis, NAMIBIA at 1450m asl.”
“Unstoppable record heat in KENYA. Mombasa and Malindi both had their hottest February night on record with minimum temperatures of 27.0C and 27.6C [81.7F].
“In BOTSWANA the capital Gabarone tied its February record heat with 40.6C (1000m asl).”
“Three dead, over 100 rescued in rains in Oman.
“Three children were found dead while more than hundred people were rescued by the Civil Defence and Ambulance Authority (CDAA) as heavy rains lashed the Sultanate of Oman on Monday, throwing normal life out of gear.”
“Al Ain residents [UAE] grapple with damage to cars, schools, stores after hailstorm…
“Lijesh Premlal, an Indian who has resided in Al Ain for decades, was at home when the intense hailstorm began. “This was the heaviest hailstorm I have seen in years. I have lived here for 40 years, but I have never seen a storm of such scale.””
“Iran’s Water Crisis Deepens: Reservoirs Plummet to Below 20% Capacity Amidst Winter.
“Of particular concern is the dire situation facing 17 of Iran’s most pivotal dams, where water reserves have plummeted to below 20%, translating to over 80% of their reservoirs lying empty… Compounding this issue is the alarming decrease in regional rainfall…”
“South India may see early, intense heatwaves thanks to El Nino and global warming.
“Parts of Africa, southeast Asia, central America, Europe and Asia are also witnessing a rise in temperatures, with some even undergoing heatwaves. In many of these regions, the heat has arrived much earlier than normal.”
“EXTRAORDINARY: temperatures in the MONGOLIA highlands at over 1500m asl in the middle of the night are hovering +7C [44.6F]!
“This is one of the most exceptional shocking events in world climatic history, together with what the Antarctic Plateau experienced in March 2022.”
“Persistent record heat also in INDONESIA: Minimum temperatures still >28C [82.4F] in some locations and monthly record of highest minimum today at Saumlaki with 28.0C.
“106 countries have broken heat records so far this month in just 12 days. The most in history in such a short period.”
“Death toll from Philippines landslide climbs to 68 as hope fades for survivors…
“The landslide hit the mountain village of Masara in Davao de Oro province on 6 February after weeks of torrential rains. It struck outside a gold mine in Maco town in Davao de Oro province, and buried homes and vehicles that were supposed to ferry employees of the mining company.”
“Victorians are facing what could be the worst day for bushfire risk since the Black Summer fires of 2019/20, which devastated communities across the state.
“On Monday afternoon, leaders from the State Emergency Service, Bureau of Meteorology and Country Fire Authority held a press conference to declare a total fire ban for parts of the state in light of a “catastrophic” fire danger rating.”
“‘It was total panic – with black smoke, falling fireballs and tongues of flame’: the terror of Chile’s wildfires.
“… the velocity and deadliness of this blaze were unprecedented. More than 130 people have died, according to official figures, and at least 370 are reportedly missing in Viña del Mar.”
“SOUTH AMERICA Heat wave: Yesterday BOLIVIA broke another record of highest temperature for February with 39.4C [102.9F] at San Matias.
“Next days the heat will intensify in Southeastern Brazil with temperatures locally >40C and possible more records.”
“The Amazon’s warning call: a potential epicentre for the next pandemic is emerging in the rainforest.
“…the Amazon’s diverse ecosystem is under threat from rampant deforestation, degradation, a biodiversity crisis, and the climate crisis – jeopardising its ability to act as a carbon sink. This degradation increases the likelihood of zoonotic diseases emerging and spreading, posing a significant public health risk for Brazil and the world.”
“January 2024 in Nicaragua had an average temperature of 27.1C [80.8F] and once again, it was the hottest on record.
“The country also tied its January national heat record with 38.2C at Corinto. 33.2C San Carlos was also a record. Almost every month in the past 8 was the hottest on record.”
“Extreme heat wave in Central America with unprecedented heat for this time of the year: In GUATEMALA 40.5 [105F] La Fragua.
“Monthly record at Huehuetenango with 33.8C (1900m asl); In Honduras also over 38C and 33.9C in the capital Tegucigalpa.”
“Costa Rica Fights Fire in Ecologically Vital Lomas Barbudal Reserve…
“With temperatures rising and moisture plummeting, experts anticipate further fire risks in protected ecosystems and beyond. By readying resources and response teams for rapid deployment, MINAE and SINAC aim to safeguard Costa Rica’s natural heritage from future wildfire threats through vigilant protection protocols.”
“HISTORIC – 38.7c [101.7F] at Golden Stream BELIZE. New national record of highest temperature in February.
“It beats the 38.5C recorded at Central Farm in February 1998. Records were smashed all over the South and the coast including Belize Airport (34.7C tied) and Punta Gorda (35.2C).”
“Utah’s Great Salt Lake is leaving behind a toxic bowl of dust as it disappears — but hope for a greener future may also lay in the salty water.
“The Great Salt Lake, the largest saltwater lake in the Western hemisphere, is laced with lithium… As competition to mine lithium amid the energy transition heats up, companies are seeking new ways to extract it that cause less environmental damage.”
“Lakebed dust is a worry in Utah. For California’s Salton Sea, it’s a full-blown problem…
“Dust storms have become the norm being so close to agricultural fields and the Salton Sea, she said. Winds reaching 75 miles per hour whip through predominantly low-income and immigrant communities. The dust gets so bad, Mandujano said, that “you can’t see what’s in front of you.””
“California rainstorms brought — and kept — a lake at Death Valley…
“The lake formed at Badwater Basin in August, on what normally is a salt flat, after Death Valley National Park saw heavy rains and flash floods caused by the remnants of Hurricane Hilary… The atmospheric river events over the last two weeks brought heavy rain to much of California and will keep the lake around longer than it would otherwise exist…”
“Atmospheric river storms are getting stronger, and deadlier. The race to understand them is on…
“Warming oceans are supercharging the storms, making them deadlier and costlier. This week’s storms killed nine people, caused an estimated $11bn in damage and economic loss, and dumped half of Los Angeles’s annual rainfall on the city in a matter of days.”
“The spiralling cost of insuring against climate disasters…
“As firms exit some areas and demand higher premiums in others, affordable home insurance cover… is getting harder to secure. The global picture explains why. A run of four consecutive years when overall insurance losses from natural catastrophes have topped $100bn, previously the mark of a remarkably bad year, has spooked executives.”
“Climate-change-driven migration seen as bigger threat than Russia – MSC report.
“Respondents fear climate-change-driven migration more than the security threat posed by Russia… European voters are also increasingly worried by “migration through war and climate change” and by the threat of radical Islamic terrorism, according to the latest Munich Security Index survey, which canvassed 12,000 people in the G7 countries, as well as Brazil, India, China, and South Africa.”
“Generative AI paints bleak pictures of Great Wall, Taj Mahal and other famous landmarks under climate change…
“Extreme weather caused by climate change and pollution could break down parts of the Great Wall of China, dry out the water system that supports Angkor Wat in Cambodia, and destroy other renowned global landmarks, according to images generated by a British start-up using generative artificial intelligence (AI).”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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