“2023: The Hottest Year on Record, Signals ‘Catastrophic Future’.
“In an unprecedented revelation, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced that 2023 has been the hottest year on record. The average global temperature recorded stood at 1.48 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial benchmark.
“Further, every single day of the year was at least one degree warmer than the pre-industrial era, suggesting temperatures may have surpassed any recorded in the last 100,000 years.”
“As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms.
“The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered. This [report] summed up our experience of 2023, as it happened:”
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/73/12/841/7319571
“World’s oceans break record for highest temperatures five years in a row: study…
“Compared with 2022, the previous hottest year ever recorded, the upper 2,000 meters of the Earth’s oceans have absorbed a larger amount of heat, which is “equal to boiling away 2.3 billion Olympic-sized swimming pools,” Cheng explained.”
https://english.news.cn/20240111/dc07837cab5c433d981c1716c9c462a6/c.html
“For those keeping track, yesterday’s global Sea Surface Temperatures reached yet another new record, at 6.23σ above the 1982-2011 mean.”
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1745121653196206211
“Another year of (preliminary) data. The Northern Hemisphere mid latitude oceans absorbed a lot more solar radiation, as albedo decreased further.
“+4 W/m² is the same order of magnitude as the forcing of all greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere in the past 270 years!”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1744818084437688809
“Snowpack is shrinking across the Northern Hemisphere.
“Snowpack is shrinking across the Northern Hemisphere thanks to climate change, and many communities could soon face a “snow-loss cliff,” according to the most comprehensive assessment yet.”
https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/10/24031852/snow-loss-climate-change-drought-research
“Big warming in GREENLAND. The temperature at the 3200m asl of the Summit Camp rose to -11.7C [10.9F] (hourly data) which ties its record of highest temperature ever recorded in January.
“At sea level temperatures as high as +11.6C at Narsarsuaq.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1744776915146387506
“December saw some rivers in the UK record their highest ever flows, provisional data reveals, as further rainfall from Storm Henk heralds flooding across the UK.
“One river, the Itchen in Southampton, reached double its highest ever recorded flow… other rivers that broke records included: the Abhainn a’Chnocain at Elphin, Sutherland; Congresbury Yeo at Iwood, Somerset; the Stinchar at Balnowlart, Ayrshire; the Swift at Churchover, Warwickshire…”
“Eton mess: start of school term delayed as flooding causes toilets to back up.
“Eton college has been forced to delay the start of school term after the toilets in its boarding houses backed up because of flooding in the Thames Water sewers caused by recent heavy rains. The £46,000-a-year private school apologised to parents…”
“Hot, Dry Spring Forecast Ups Risks for Crops in Southern Europe.
“Southern Europe is likely to experience blistering and dry weather for a key part of the growing season, potentially leading to problems for farmers and businesses that rely on steady water flows.”
“Greece Charges Tourists ‘Climate Crisis Resilience’ Tax…
“Last summer, Greece experienced a number of historic natural disasters. Record rainfall caused a massive flood that destroyed homes, bridges, roads, livestock and crops and left at least 17 dead. A massive heat wave caused wildfires that destroyed over 1,500 square kilometers and left 20 people dead.”
https://skift.com/2024/01/10/greece-charges-tourists-climate-crisis-resilience-tax/
“Hundreds dead as Congo River basin submerged by generational floods.
“Ferry Mowa, a hydrology specialist at the DRC riverways authority, part of the transport ministry, said his office had flagged the high water level in late December… On Wednesday, the river reached 6.20 meters (20.34 feet) above sea level, just shy of the 1961 record of 6.26 meters…”
“Insane July temperatures tonight in Central Asia with temperatures of 10C/15C [59F] at dawn not only in Turkmenistan but even in Kazakh highlands at 800m asl.
“24 hours Tmin of +11.1C at Shymkent is the highest MIN in January in Kazakhstan. Records in Mongolia too.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1745036875180732579
“Climate crisis casts a shadow over K-P’s agriculture sector [Pakistan].
“Pakistan’s northern areas are well known for producing some of the country’s finest variety of fruits and vegetables. In recent times however, the drastic changes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (K-P) weather conditions and rainfall rate have come as a bolt from the blue for its agriculturalists…”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2452819/climate-crisis-casts-a-shadow-over-k-ps-agriculture-sector
“Another exceptional record in SE Asia. Huyen Tran in the Spratly Islands, VIETNAM had a MINIMUM temperature of 28.0C [82.4F], which ties the highest minimum temperature ever recorded in Vietnam in January.
“The heat has been intense and relentless despite being the coolest days of the year.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1744977374687699404
“Fires razed nearly 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of lands and forests in Indonesia in 2023, as the country suffered from unusually scorching weather due to El Niño and burning for new plantations…
“The size of the 2023 fires represents a fivefold increase from the 204,894 hectares (506,300 acres) of burned lands in 2022.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/01/2023-fires-increase-fivefold-in-indonesia-amid-el-nino/
“Relentless record heat in Oceania and SE Asia: 2024 highest was retouched with 47.9C [118.2F] at Marble Bar [Australia]. 33.3C MINIMUM at Laverton is its highest minimum on record.
“Again, MICRONESIA and VIETNAM had their January hottest nights on record 28.3C and 28.0C. 3rd time.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1745290686272819505
“Marble Bar [Australia] is on track to register four straight weeks of daily temperatures above 43ºC [109.4F], possibly setting a new extreme heat record in a town already world famous for its relentless summer temperatures.
“Marble Bar made international headlines in the 1920s when it registered 160 consecutive days above 37.8ºC (100ºF) in 1923-24, a world record that still stands to this day.”
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/four-weeks-above-43oc-in-marble-bar/1730005
“Sydney sweats through muggiest day on record.
“If you were feeling extra hot and sweaty in Sydney on Thursday morning despite the temperatures barely touching 30 degrees, don’t fear – there’s a record-breaking reason why. The hourly dew point observation in Sydney, the best indicator of how muggy the day is, reached the highest on record.”
“2023 declared New Zealand’s second hottest year…
“Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino said the country is experiencing hotter temperatures and more extreme weather events… In addition, the persistent marine heatwave surrounding the motu alongside climate change are, on average, driving up the mercury.”
“Hawke’s Bay breaks wind and rainfall records in 2023, including one that had stood for 144 years…
“The report shows Napier recorded its highest-ever annual rainfall in 2023 since Niwa records began in 1870, with 1363mm of rain, or 173 per cent of normal, falling at Niwa’s Hawke’s Bay Airport station.”
“Extreme heat wave in East Antarctica driven by record-breaking ‘atmospheric river,’ analysis finds.
“This record-shattering event set a new all-time high-temperature record of -9.4°C on 18 March 2022 near Concordia Station on the Antarctic Plateau in East Antarctica… The extreme temperatures were driven by an intense ‘atmospheric river’… transporting heat and moisture from the subtropics deep into the Antarctic interior.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-extreme-east-antarctica-driven-atmospheric.html
“Highly infectious form of bird flu confirmed for first time in Antarctic seals.
“Scientists working for the UK’s Animal Plant Health Agency detected the variant of the H5N1 virus in samples taken from dead elephant and fur seals on the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia. Dozens of animals are known to have died, with many more likely to have succumbed in remote bays and out at sea.”
“SOUTH AMERICA HEAT WAVE: 45 DEGREES; Rivadavia Argentina managed to touch the 45C [113F] mark.
“But even more remarkable the extraordinary hot nights in PARAGUAY, with MINIMUMS temperatures close the January South America record: 31.4C Filadelfia, 31.2C Mariscal Estigarribia.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1745258647146684926
“2023 in Brazil was the hottest year on record, driven by an insanely hot second half where every single month was the hottest on records with thousands records smashed all over no-stop (and going on in 2024).
“A year like no other.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1745094392929526021
“Northern Hemisphere also with record heat.
“CENTRAL AMERICA: temperatures in the coldest part of the year already touched 40C [104F] in Mexico, 39C in Guatemala, 38C in Honduras, 37.5C in Costa Rica. In NICARAGUA record at Juigalpa with 35.4C. Widespread records in the Caribbean.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1745266775024079301
“Hurricane waves hitting Americas grow 20% per decade: Study.
“The U.S., Mexico and countries in the Caribbean are being battered by hurricane-induced ocean waves that have grown in areal size by 80% over the past 40 years, a new study has found… Globally, the area of ocean waves increased by 6% per decade from 1979 to 2022.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-hurricane-americas-decade.html
“U.S. struck with historic number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023.
“An unprecedented number of billion-dollar disasters — 28 in total — struck the U.S. in 2023, as the remarkably warm year wrapped up with a record-warm December. “For millions of Americans impacted by a seemingly endless onslaught of weather and climate disasters, 2023 has hit a new record for many extremes,” said NOAA Chief Scientist Sarah Kapnick.”
https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023
“At least five dead and 600,000 without power as storm hammers much of the US.
“Tornadoes swept across the midwest and south of the country, blizzards were felt in the northwest, and parts of the east of the country were threatened with flooding. In the northeast of the country, New Jersey governor Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency…”
“Minnesota notched its hottest December in the era of modern record keeping, beating the previous record, set in 2015, by a staggering 5 degrees Fahrenheit.
“Data released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that statewide average December temperature was 30 degrees — 17 degrees warmer than the 20th century average…”
https://minnesotareformer.com/briefs/december-smashes-temperature-record-by-5-degrees/
“Indigenous Peoples and local communities report ongoing and widespread climate change impacts on local social-ecological systems…
“We provide compelling evidence that climate change impacts on Indigenous Peoples and local communities are ongoing, tangible, widespread, and affect multiple elements of their social-ecological systems.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01164-y
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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Thank you from the bottom of my heart. You do this and we all appreciate it.
You are very welcome, Regan.
There must be a law of diminishing comments return, because once a certain threshold (tipping point?)of constant reaction-formation commenting is breached, then it’s just “ ore of the same from this jamoke.”
But, c’mon gang, the Scientists’ Umpteenth Warning to Humanity is linked to by our fearless Pan-O, and this time they’re really, really concerned, maybe they weren’t before, but it’s time now, but for what, they don’t say.
They are quite good on the biophysical facts, these Rippleians, but they have zero social science to offer. It’s as if the exajoules of fossil fuel energy come disembodied, without a source, invisibly from the sky.
No corporations operating the machinery and raking in the profits are named. No state corporations are named, just fictive entities denoted as nations. No humans at work, No CEOs. No farcical “regulatory” captures are named.
Why this bogus refusal to identify actual working power in the world? I can’t speak for the Scientists Warning heroes, but they are all working drudges “affiliated” with various tuition-charging, conservative academic institutions. Corporations and state-corporations own them, they own us, they own it, and they own that. Who here can say that they have, or will, “disrupt” even an iota or speck of that ownership?
If you’ve joined up with your local Amish sect, maybe you can testify to your low-carbon style o’ life, but I don’t see our local buggy-riders accepting too many converts. .
Yes Martin, as you describe, we are all trapped in the world we have built. At this point there is no practical alternative, as anything that might work would most likely be extremely ghoulish. Look around your house, you bought all that stuff, just like all your neighbors and everyone else did. Making the boogey man out of CEO’s is childish. We are all collectively cheerleading and fueling this insanity. You seem to be looking for blame, but I am quite sure that it isn’t as clear cut as you may be hoping.
Peace.
CEOs are now to be held blameless, in addition to receiving the lion’s share of profits?
They have names and addresses, as the hoary quote from Utah Phillips goes, only those addresses are protected by moats and teams of private security. Nothing “childish” about their power, my friend.
There is nothing to the “blame game,” since there are no deities in the sky to adjudicate this mess. Antipathy, hostility, anger, despair, though- what’s wrong with harboring those basic animal emotions?
Peace is a utopia of the dead. War happens to be humanity’s constant pastime – though making this observation into a cheer is going to be a mighty tough sell.
Uh, boards of directors appoint CEO’s. Shall we punish them as well? What about the shareholders? Them too? Or the customers? Ultimately it is the customers who enable all of it. How about the law makers? If the CEO’s are up to evil, should that be legal? Are they breaking laws? If not, wouldn’t we need to change the laws in order to even accuse them of evil doing?
Yes, it is childish to rant about CEO’s, as it’s so very much larger than that. But if it makes you feel better, rah rah! Damn CEO’s!……………but don’t take away my luxurious life! “Blame game”?, it is our collective system to blame.
Questions, questions. Answers shall be given to all.
Yes to the punishment of boards of directors. Yes to the punishment of shareholders. The punishment shall consist of, well, intense and utter contempt. That’s about it – fair enough?
Customers, in your worldview, though they get none of the profits, hold none of the decision-making power, bribe no one, operate none of the machinery, are the evil subjects and authors of their own demise, just like they’ve been instructed to see themselves from religious authorities. No differentiation permissible – the money flows one way, but the guilt only flows another?
Should the evil perpetrated by CEOs be legal? Of course not. Are they breaking laws? Yes, but only if laws reflected biophysical and social reality, but they do not. Look at the state of white-collar punishment in this world if you think the legal system adjudicates good over evil.
Where’s the “rant” in any of this? This is mere fact, as true and destined to be true as the shoes on your feet, the blood in your veins. Yet you persist, as the leading champion of put-upon CEO rights to be shielded from any and all accusation, as “childish.” Why?
Our collective supersystem is, yes, “to blame,” so does that absolve everybody, punish everybody, or leave the door open to other systems to come?
We’re the yeast in the vat, but you want us to drown in our wastes without a whimper. Or are you among the Amish?
You definitely made some points I agree with and I can sympathize with! You may be imagining that I am defending ill gotten gains and repugnant behaviors, not at all. I merely see that I am awash in a sea of an entire culture embracing all manner of self destructive insanity. The money, power, ego, etc. ambition is ubiquitous…………………. so I struggle to see it any other way as childish to blame one particular group doing what we collectively have encouraged. I would go so far as to call our collective denial of what is happening around us, “childish”.
Peace.
Same here on the genuine points you made. I think you say it very well in this comment. I really have no way to make sense of “a sea of entire culture embracing all manner of self-destructive insanity.” It’s beyond absurd.
I would recommend John Vaillant’s book “Fire Weather,” though. Jesus H. Christ, what has happened in Alberta is beyond shame, beyond understanding. We, as a species, as so, so far gone. Be easy.
I will check out Fire Weather.
I was in Alberta, Yukon, and BC during the fires this previous summer (road trip from my home in Oregon). I got out of Yellowknife only a couple of days before they had to evacuate, and I passed roadside fires on the way!
Check out the link Panopticon sent about resilience, it is exactly the discussion we are having.
Take care
“There must be a law of diminishing comments return, because once a certain threshold (tipping point?)of constant reaction-formation commenting is breached, then it’s just “more of the same from this jamoke.””
Or perhaps the inverse is true and, once we pass a tipping point, we find ourselves in a new phase state where the comments section becomes a psychedelic kaleidoscope of novelty. 😱😂
I’ve only just read Ripple’s report tbh. It acknowledges that, “…possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously underexplored.” Yep.
What is a “Ripple’s report”?
Phillip, sorry – I should have been clearer. I was referring to the “Rippleians” that Martin mentions in his first comment, ie William J Ripple and co-authors’ paper that is linked to in my second item:
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/73/12/841/7319571
Also, I have posted this before, but re the question of guilt and blame, I personally found this David Korowicz interview very helpful:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-25/anger-complicity-in-a-time-of-limits/
Thanks for those links!
Hello Pan,
Thanks for your longread “As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms.” That’s helpful…
But yes it is January and in January everyone plans their summer holidays…. and they are doing the same thing now… blue monday is next Monday…. book it.
It’s fascinating to see BASU just going ahead without any side comments…. don’t look up!!! What is interesting is the penchant for autocracies worldwide…with Argentina as a shining example.
People actually always react ‘contra’ the last thing we need are autocratic leaders….. but yes the opposite is going to happen
Zip, you are welcome. What is BASU? It’s not an acronym I’ve come across.
I think he means BAU, maybe. So, a minor typo.
Thanks, Cassandra. I probably should have been able to guess that. 😆
thank you cassandra… if we had been in class together in primary school I would have come and sat next to you to protect me from the all-knowing teachers…. 🙂 But yes you will have a teacher called panopticon 😉 No chance at all…
Well then, according to David Korowicz in 2014, emissions are going to go down – how do like them apples? Still waiting on that one, it would seem to me. Waiting, waiting, waiting.
He’s got some real guru-speak going there – some of it makes some sense, other stuff is more namby-pamby “won’t somebody think of the poor CEO” tone policing.
I’ma gonna keep on hatin’ CEOs, just for the fun ‘n hell of it. Remember when pieing those assholes was a thing?
No one listened to Guy McPherson & his posting of peer reviewed studies & they still don’t. Can anyone tell me what they gave up to prevent this future? I enjoy all the talk about global warming,climate change,weather weirding since “It’s not my fault.” This species cannot take responsibility for the situation it is in but it will not escape the consequences. I’m still waiting for all the Main Slime Media & syentysts to continue their denial while they are crying & gnashing their teeth. Apparently they are unable to see all the horrors that AGW is causing around the planet. Let’s celebrate but BYOB because I’m supplying anything for idiots.
To be mad at all CEOs because humanity is going to go extinct in the near future assumes that humanity’s extinction was (is) avoidable in the first place. To assume that humanity’s extinction was (is)
avoidable is not totally unreasonable. I myself placed the blame for humanities extinction on bad political leadership until early in 2023. But then due to a conversation on Collapse of Industrial Civilization I was convinced by another commentator, after a long exchange of comments, that humanity has been doomed from the moment that it left hunter gathering and went down the path of agriculture. The use of fossil fuels only delayed our inevitable end.
Even more recently, just in the past week I have concluded that humans were just to smart for their own good. It now seems very plausible to me that humans were doomed even before they developed agrocuture. I say this because of a simple comment that I read on the site Systemic Disorder very recently.
I had always assumed that humans transitioned to agriculture because agricuture was less labor intensive and less dangerous than hunting and gathering. I had never considered the possibility that humans transitioned to agriculture because they over hunted the largest animals in their territories. Once this happened hunting became relatively less effecient than it had been. Only then did agriculture become competive with hunter-gathering. The implication of this understanding is that humans were destined to destroy the environment that supported them.
An implication of that is that it makes sense to be mad at CEOs (and the boards of directors that appoint them) for lots of things, but not for human extinction.
Therefore for me, the worst of the worst, those that deserve to rot in the 9th level of Dante’s Inferno are the Generals of the collective west, and specifically of the USA. First of all I maintain that not only is the United States (and its set of colonies world wide) a fake democracy. It is actually an extreme rightwing military junta. It has been an extreme rightwing military junta since at least November 22nd 1963, if not since the death of Roosevelt, if not since end of reconstruction, if not since the Trail of Tears, if not since July 4th 1776. Now one thing that I can not say is whether this Junta controls the levers of Government through deception, by using information and misinformation to manipulate people in key positions, or if it maintains power through explicit extortion. An additional reason for my scorn is that the collective west did not need to continue to exploit the rest of the world as the world began to be faced with the multitude of problems that will lead to the collapse of industrial civilization. On a per capita basis the west was very well endowed with natural resources.
Sadly western leaders did not choose to take the reasonable route of strategic defence. Instead they waged war upon the entire planet by every means that could be imagined. I did not understand this in the 1980s. But I see it clearly now. The United States did not defeat the German Nazis. They mearly gave the old Nazis a face lift. We can say Germany became a society of Nazism with a human face. In fact we can say today about all of the EU countries. But if I keep on saying that I may end up in prison in the not to distant future.
A refrain that I often hear is that if the Chinese and Russians and Iranians were as powerful as the Americans they would be as evil as the Americans. But that is a speculative statement. It might be reasonable speculation as they are also human beings. These nations also did not have the same benign environment that exists in North America. In any case, I have always maintained the most important key (factor) to a just society is not one man one vote but an institutional balance of power.
Thanks for all you do, Pan.
I would love to play a part in “a psychedelic kaleidoscope of novelty”!
You reminded me that there is another kind of self-reinforcing feedback loop. We are all too familiar by now with the feedbacks that just make thing worse, especially WRT the climate. These can be described as “vicious circles”. The worse things get, then the faster they get worse.
If there is any hope at all in our predicament, it would be the very opposite of a vicious circle, but it would need to be just as global and just as exponential in nature.
How fascinating that there is just such a thing! The “virtuous circle”. The better things get, then the faster they get better.
There! What a simple task: What kind of virtuous circles would be most likely to turn our suicidal, planet eating behavior around, and as quickly as possible?
Hmmm… Maybe not so simple after all.