Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

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“Economic models buckle under strain of climate reality…

“”…climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn’t go away,” said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense – if any,” he told Reuters.

“Another issue is that IAMs have for years used a “quadratic function” to calculate GDP losses that involves squaring the temperature change – while ignoring other methods such as the exponential function better suited for rapid change.

“Critics say this choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact – particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/economic-models-buckle-under-strain-climate-reality-2023-11-22/


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“Enviva, the world’s largest biomass energy company, is near collapse…

“The forest biomass energy industry took a major hit this month, as Enviva, the world’s largest producer of wood pellets — burned in former coal power plants to make energy on an industrial scale — saw catastrophic third quarter losses.”

https://news.mongabay.com/2023/11/enviva-the-worlds-largest-biomass-energy-company-is-near-collapse/


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“The looming threat of fiscal crises…

“Blanchard argues that “advanced economies can sustain a higher debt ratio, so long as it is not exploding”. But there is a likelihood (though no certainty) that interest rates will rise with debt levels. If so, debt dynamics will tend to become explosive.”

https://www.ft.com/content/dcc702cb-0eec-4ac8-a0b8-c911a0b4f180


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“The fairy tale of a soft landing…

“A soft landing is merely a convenient and comfortable fairy tale, back fitted to match the market prevailing narrative and based on backward-looking unique circumstances. A hard landing is coming – it’s just a matter of when.”

https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2023/11/20/the-fairy-tale-of-a-soft-landing/


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“Yellen says high food and rent prices key factors in voters’ negative economic outlook…

““Although prices in general are rising less quickly, Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic. And this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop,” Yellen said on CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/20/yellen-food-rent-inflation-key-factors-in-voters-negative-economic-outlook.html


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“UK government borrowing near record high for October.

“The UK government borrowed £14.9bn in October, more than analysts expected and the second-highest figure for the month, according to official figures that confirm the continued pressure on public finances.”

https://www.ft.com/content/92e5a7a7-604f-4554-a1b9-1b8413cdaafa


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“Germany freezes new spending as budget crisis deepens…

“Germany’s finance ministry has imposed a spending freeze on all federal ministries, deepening a budget crisis that has rocked the ruling coalition since a bombshell ruling by the country’s top court last week.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-freeze-spending-budget-crisis-deepen/


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“Germany heading for another poor quarter, “arduous” recovery: Bundesbank…

“Suffering a deep industrial recession, Germany has been among the weakest economies in Europe this year as high energy costs, weak global orders and higher interest rates took their toll.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-heading-another-poor-quarter-arduous-recovery-bundesbank-2023-11-20/


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“Europe’s gas crisis is over, but not the painful adjustment…

“The region’s challenge is how to cope with relatively high gas prices in the medium term if relatively inexpensive pipeline gas from Russia is permanently swapped for more expensive LNG. Greater reliance on LNG rather than fixed pipelines also means Europe’s gas prices will increasingly be determined by weather, business cycles and policies outside its borders, especially in Asia.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europes-gas-crisis-is-over-not-painful-adjustment-kemp-2023-11-21/


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“Commercial property’s debt burden exceeds pre-2008 level in eurozone, warns ECB.

“Eurozone property companies are being hit by surging losses and some will struggle to support their debts, which have risen to a higher level than before the 2008 financial crisis, the European Central Bank has warned.”

https://www.ft.com/content/a7d19b28-2f68-4fd5-bc56-ca680d32ee40


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“Albanian opposition protests budget in parliament with smoke bombs and fire…

“MPs piled chairs in the centre of the chamber and red, green and purple smoke filled the air as security kept protesters back from the seat of Prime Minister Edi Rama. One MP appeared to light a small fire which was passed forward in a container before flames briefly spread and were doused by surrounding MPs.”

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/albanian-opposition-protests-budget-parliament-132205744.html


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“Protests and blockades by Polish lorry drivers at border crossings to Ukraine have curbed imports of motor vehicle gas (LPG) into Ukraine, causing a 30% rise in domestic prices, an analyst said on Tuesday.

“Serhiy Kuyun, the head of Ukraine’s leading A-95 fuel consultancy, told an online briefing that about a third of all LPG supplies were imported through the border with Poland.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-border-protests-lead-lpg-shortage-price-hikes-ukraine-analyst-2023-11-21/


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“Finland extends nuclear reactor outage, pushing up power price [this is Europe’s largest nuclear power station]…

“Finnish power company TVO said on Monday it had extended an outage at Olkiluoto 3…. while it undertakes repairs, likely boosting electricity prices… The outage was expected to drive up short-term power prices in Finland and the Nordic region, an LSEG market analyst said.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/finland-extends-nuclear-reactor-outage-pushing-up-power-price-2023-11-20/


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“The release of a third batch of treated radioactive wastewater from Japan’s damaged Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean ended safely as planned, its operator said Monday…

…as the country’s seafood producers continue to suffer from a Chinese import ban imposed after the discharges began.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/3rd-release-treated-water-japans-damaged-fukushima-nuclear-105025580


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“Japan’s inflation comeback prompts investors to tear up old playbooks…

“Global inflationary forces are finally seeping into Japan’s economy after decades of falling prices, forcing investors to radically rethink their Japan bets as the Bank of Japan considers a major policy shift.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-inflation-comeback-prompts-investors-tear-up-old-playbooks-2023-11-20/


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“China struggles to spend its way out of economic crisis…

“With economic growth slowing and a previous investment-led development model losing steam, tax revenue is under pressure, analysts said. Beijing is also reluctant to borrow more, given that it has huge pools of bad debt to resolve at the local government level.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1dfcdec4-b0fa-4569-a70c-387172a3c241


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“‘Argentina has non-negotiable sovereignty over the Falklands’, country’s new right-wing president Javier Milei declares…

“The new president said in a presidential debate that Argentina should have control of the islands, which it calls Las Malvinas. The Falklands are a British overseas territory, which Argentina invaded in 1982, sparking a military response from the UK.”

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/javier-milei-argentina-falklands-sovereignty/


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“Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region…

“At the heart of Bolivia’s current crisis is the mutually reinforcing nature of expanding criminality, endemic corruption, economic collapse, and political struggle.”

https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/


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“Rapists and kidnappers increasingly targeting migrants crossing Darién Gap.

“Armed bandits are exploiting the record number of people crossing the Darién Gap – a 100km stretch of jungle connecting Colombia and Panama – to kidnap and rape desperate migrants, according to Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/21/rapists-and-kidnappers-increasingly-targeting-migrants-crossing-darien-gap


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“Border Patrol sending migrants to unofficial camps in California’s desert, locals say…

“When the migrants cross it, they find themselves on the outskirts of the tiny community of Jacumba, population about 600. They end up at camps like this one, an open field near the highway, where Border Patrol has told them to wait. Activists and locals say it’s a humanitarian disaster.”

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/21/1213597119/border-patrol-migrants-unofficial-camps-jacumba-california-desert


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“African debt; no easy way out… African debt holes are proving hard to escape.

“The latest deadlock in Zambia’s protracted restructuring is a blow to hopes the Group of 20’s Common Framework was finally producing results. It bodes ill for other nations, like Ghana, that aren’t as far down the road of negotiation. Both country’s foreign securities slumped.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-21/no-easy-exit-for-african-nations-stuck-in-debt-holes


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“Power blackouts cripple businesses in eastern Uganda.

“Power blackouts in the Eastern region have reached alarming levels in the recent months, affecting every facet of life. For several months now… blackouts go on for hours and on some occasions for days, forcing businesses to rely on generators.”

https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/power-blackouts-cripple-businesses-in-eastern-uganda-4439668


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“Malians Suffer Under Unprecedented Power Cuts…

“Mali is experiencing a severe electricity crisis that analysts say will have dire economic consequences. For the first time, citizens are openly criticizing Mali’s military government, which has until now enjoyed widespread support in the capital.”

https://www.voanews.com/a/malians-suffer-under-unprecedented-power-cuts/7362707.html


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“After seven months of war, Sudan faces risk of collapse…

“Seven months of war between rival generals in Sudan have resulted in thousands of deaths, millions of displaced persons and the risk of disintegration of the country, which was already in a fragile state before the outbreak of hostilities.”

https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/20/after-seven-months-of-war-sudan-faces-risk-of-collapse/


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“War has brought ‘complete collapse’ of Gaza’s economy…

“Most of the bakeries in the besieged enclave of 2.4 million people are closed and the whole supply chain has fallen apart. “Even the simplest productive activities like bakeries are barely getting by. The whole supply value chain is closed …supermarkets have run out of stock. How can there be an economy?””

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/11/22/war-has-brought-complete-collapse-of-gazas-economy/


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“Deportation drive sparks ‘sense of panic’ among Afghan refugees in Pakistan: UNHCR…

“The U.N. refugee agency on Tuesday expressed concern over widespread distress in large Afghan refugee communities across Pakistan where authorities are conducting searches to round up and expel undocumented foreigners. Islamabad last month announced it would expel over a million undocumented refugees…”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/deportation-drive-sparks-sense-panic-among-afghan-refugees-pakistan-unhcr-2023-11-21/


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“Pakistan under fire for ‘shocking’ $830 exit fee for refugees who fled Taliban…

“Pakistan’s decision to impose hundreds of dollars in exit fees for every Afghan refugee who fled the persecution by the Taliban has been condemned as “shocking and frustrating” by western diplomats and the UN.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/22/pakistan-under-fire-for-shocking-830-exit-fee-for-refugees-who-fled-taliban


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“Azerbaijan accuses France of stoking ‘new wars’ in Caucasus…

“”(France) is pursuing a militaristic policy by arming Armenia, encouraging revanchist forces in Armenia, and laying the groundwork for provoking new wars in our region,” Aliyev said in written comments to an international conference in Baku.”

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231121-azerbaijan-accuses-france-of-stoking-new-wars-in-caucasus


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“Geopolitical instability and a packed election calendar have strategists wary of 2024…

“As the world’s financial institutions map out the investment landscape for next year, they expect an increasingly fraught geopolitical backdrop and greater divergence across key regions, compounding uncertainty and market volatility.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/geopolitical-instability-and-a-packed-election-calendar-have-strategists-wary-of-2024.html


You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.

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