“Central banks will have to slash rates as the world’s fiscal bubble bursts… The main prop of global economic recovery is wobbling. The world economy has been kept afloat for a quarter century by serial bubbles. Each has masked the weakness of underlying growth.
“As successive bubbles pop, the economy fails to self-correct by the normal process of the business cycle. It takes ever more monetary stimulus to right the ship…
“Today we are in the final phase of the great fiscal boom… The ECB and then the Fed will have to carry out a violent policy pivot, slash rates, and ultimately mop up debt with fresh QE. Almost nobody in the markets is prepared for that surprise.”
“Central banks’ trillion-dollar problem… Bloated balance sheets need to come down without endangering financial stability.
“…the trillion-dollar problem facing central banks is how to shrink their footprint without sparking ructions.”
“US and China’s joint climate plan leaves key questions unanswered…
“The joint plan also is notable in what it lacks… There are no specific emissions cuts laid out in this generic framework, nor is there any firm commitment to phase out fossil fuels, which is a major priority for activists and some countries at the UN’s climate summit, known as Cop28, starting in Dubai in two weeks’ time.”
“China’s state planner urges coal miners to expand production…
“National Reform and Development Commission (NDRC) spokesperson Li Chao said in a press conference that the NDRC would strengthen coal production monitoring and encourage local governments and companies to expand coal output.”
“China home prices fell the most in eight years in October, signaling the property slump is worsening even after the government ramped up efforts to revive demand…
“The drop adds to evidence of a persistent housing downturn… Fresh stimulus measures rolled out at major cities since August have done little to turn around the sector.”
“U.S. renewable, grid battery projects battle transformer shortage.
“U.S. developers building renewable energy projects and power storage for grids are scrambling to procure critical components, leading to rising costs and project delays. Supply chain problems have tightened supply of high-voltage transformers necessary to connect wind and solar farms and batteries to the grid, projects that are key to the energy transition.”
“Hydrogen Fuel Is Gaining Traction With Truckers [US]…
“California is requiring that beginning Jan. 1, new trucks calling at the state’s seaports be zero-emission vehicles. The state is also requiring that a growing share of truck sales and fleets in the state run on clean fuels, with a goal of phasing out diesel big rigs over the next two decades.”
“The UK Energy Secretary is poised to approve a landmark hydrogen heating trial in a north Yorkshire town despite growing local protests.
“It is understood Claire Coutinho is “minded to approve” the scheme in Redcar, with an announcement expected in weeks. Government support for the project will pave the way for Northern Gas Networks (NGN) to start supplying up to 2,000 homes with hydrogen.”
“Vandals have targeted the delivery of wind turbine blades to a development in the Scottish Borders… It led to the cancellation of a delivery planned for Tuesday…
“The firm has faced criticism for the disruption caused by the slow-moving convoys… The scheme was originally refused by Scottish Borders Council due to its “unacceptable impacts” on the nearby Penchrise Pen fort.”
“UK to offer higher subsidies for offshore windfarms after crisis talks…
“Ministers have agreed to raise the starting price of the government’s next auction for offshore wind subsidies by around two-thirds to £73 per megawatt hour to help more offshore windfarm projects to move ahead despite higher costs.”
“Germany to back €20 billion bid to build hydrogen pipe network…
““We are moving forward to solve the chicken-and-egg problem, namely first the infrastructure and then the ramp-up, and then to organise it accordingly,” explained Thomas Gößmann, head of the board of Germany’s gas transmission grid operators FNB, who spoke alongside Habeck.”
“Germany’s hydrogen ramp-up is slowing soon after it kicked off…
““The discrepancy between planned projects and final investment decisions is far too great,” said Patrick Lammers, EON’s board member in charge of customer solutions. “We need instruments to speed up the hydrogen ramp-up.””
“The German government has ordered a freeze on all payments from its centrepiece climate transformation fund, after the country’s top court ruled €60bn allocated to it was illegal.
“Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government was left scrambling to contain the economic and political fallout… admitting that the ruling had thrown its energy and climate policy plans for years ahead into disarray.”
“‘Feminisation of poverty’: France’s cost-of-living crisis is hitting women hardest…
“Poverty is worsening in France and women and children are the main victims, the charity Secours Catholique has warned in its annual report, highlighting the burden of inflation, childcare and entrenched gender inequality on single women and mothers.”
“European Commission cuts its 2023 growth forecast to 0.6%… Latest downgrade comes amid rising expectations of stagnation in the coming quarters…
“Finding ways to kick-start the EU’s moribund economy and falling global competitiveness has become the commission’s most pressing task, as growth remains tepid despite a €800bn stimulus programme rolled out across the bloc.”
“Russia’s Key Economic Sectors Shrug Off Sanctions…
“The rebound illustrates the limits of the sanctions that US President Joe Biden said were designed to cut Russia’s economy in half and turn the ruble into “rubble” as punishment for the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.”
“Loan sharks taking advantage of desperate Australians amid cost-of-living crisis, Asic warns…
“The chair of the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, Joe Longo, recently told a parliamentary inquiry that lenders were targeting people unable to access mainstream credit, which offered lower fees and rates.”
“A shirt for rice: bartering to survive in inflation-battered Argentina.
“An old T-shirt for a handful of rice or some eggs: ever more Argentines are relying on barter to survive in a fast-worsening economy dominating the debate ahead of presidential elections Sunday… In and around the teeming Argentine capital, it is an increasingly common sight for people to knock on doors asking for second-hand clothes to wear, barter or sell.”
“Peru adds cabinet crisis to economic recession.
“A new chapter in Peru’s seemingly constant political crisis is affecting President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet, which has lost two ministers in the past 10 days, just as the economy has entered into a recession.”
“Mexico building rail rival as water shortages drain Panama Canal.
“At Mexico’s narrowest point, between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the government is building a railway to rival the Panama Canal, with promises of economic bounty but amid fears of environmental and social harm.”
“Gas-Supply Cliff Is South Africa’s Next Crisis, Energy Body Says.
“South Africa’s supply of natural gas is set to plunge within the next three to four years and there’s a risk of a shortfall triggering the country’s next economic crisis, the head of an industry body warned… The country is also seeing a decline in the amount of gasoline and diesel it can refine as its processing plants close…”
“Malawi deploying army, intelligence operatives to enforce currency trading rule after 44% devaluation…
“Fearing steep price increases and worse poverty, Malawians responded angrily to the November 9 devaluation of the kwacha and are planning protests. The government increased fuel and electricity prices a day later.”
“UN warns that food aid running out for Sudanese refugees in Chad.
“Food aid for more than half a million refugees who have fled from Sudan to Chad will run out next month without extra funding, a World Food Programme official said on Wednesday. “By December, there will be no assistance,” Pierre Honnorat, Chad country director for the U.N. agency, told Reuters.”
“Tanzania’s Threat to Expel Burundians Sets a Dangerous Precedent.
“John, a Burundian living in Tanzania’s Nyarugusu refugee camp, is the embodiment of the instability that more than 100,000 other Burundian refugees are facing as the Tanzanian government renews threats to forcibly repatriate Burundian refugees if they do not return “voluntarily.””
“Israeli lawmakers urge the West to accept refugees from Gaza, in WSJ op-ed…
“Since much of the infrastructure and homes in Gaza have been destroyed, as a result of the war, the two lawmakers urged European Union states to consider taking in Gazans who wish to flee the war-torn coastal enclave in a similar fashion as the large number of Syrian refugees in 2015.”
“UN Human Rights Chief ‘alarmed’ by reported abuse of Afghan refugees in Pakistan.
“United Nations Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said he is “alarmed” by reports that Afghan refugees are being abused in Pakistan as the country carries out its policy of forced mass deportation… According to the UN, more than 327,000 refugees have been repatriated to Afghanistan from Pakistan.”
“Indonesia faces new refugee crisis as Rohingya boat pushed back to sea.
“The situation appeared more volatile than in previous years, with refugees and residents shouting at each other, and refugees clinging to each other in an effort to avoid being marched into the water. The people of Aceh have previously welcomed refugees…”
“N. Korean state security officials tell farmers to hand over rice in exchange for government-supplied corn…
““MSS officials are able to receive corn rations, but farmers are barely able to secure even one to two months’ worth of food rations in exchange for their back-breaking work. Yet, these security officials take advantage of their higher social standing to swap out their corn for rice while the farmers who shed their blood, sweat, and tears laboring away in the fields aren’t even able to eat a proper meal with rice.”
“A hospital in the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, has been evacuated by police after nearby gang violence.
“More than 100 patients – nearly half of them children – had to be removed from the Fontaine Hospital Center, according to its director Jose Ulysse… Haiti is currently in the grip of unprecedented levels of lawlessness.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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