“The Cassandra warning that central banks are driving the world’s economy off a cliff… Optimism may be short-lived as the scale of interest rates hikes is yet to fully hit…
“Paul Mortimer-Lee, a veteran economist who used to conduct forecasting for the Bank of England and investment bank BNP Paribas, believes the economy is heading for a painful crash.
“His reasoning? The sheer scale of the jump in interest rates is yet to fully hit home. “I’d be very surprised if we didn’t [get a recession]. And I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get a financial crisis,” says Mortimer-Lee, now a fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
“His argument runs that the financial system has become entirely geared around low interest rates after almost 15 years of cheap money in the post-2008 era. Many of the business models, investment ideas and hedging strategies that underpin the economy will now come unstuck as interest rates stay higher for longer.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/15/cassandra-warning-central-banks-world-economy/
“Almost no Russian oil is sold below $60 cap, say western officials.
“The US-led price cap on Russia’s oil sales is being almost completely circumvented, according to western officials and Russian export data, forcing countries to explore ways to reinforce one of their key economic sanctions against Moscow.”
https://www.ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad
“Forbidden Russian oil flows into Pentagon supply chain…
“Petroleum products that originated in Russia kept flowing to the Motor Oil Hellas refinery on the Aegean Sea in Greece, a Washington Post examination of shipping and trade data found. They just took a new route, hundreds of miles out of the way through an oil storage facility in Turkey…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/14/russian-oil-sanctions-us-greece-turkey/
“Denmark could block Russian oil tankers from reaching markets.
“Denmark will be tasked with inspecting and potentially blocking tankers of Russian oil sailing through its waters under new EU plans, as western powers scramble to enforce a price cap the Kremlin has learned to avoid… All of Russia’s oil shipped through the Baltic Sea, roughly 60 per cent of its total seaborne oil exports, crosses the narrow Danish straits on its way to international markets.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6409ed38-73f4-46b3-b0f1-649c5e5b79db
“LNG Dispute Highlights Supply Vulnerability.
“An LNG dispute is threatening to turn into an international problem. Shell, BP, Eni, Repsol, and Italian company, Edison have filed arbitration cases against Venture Global. If the buyers’ claims are true, such conduct could have a significant negative impact on the future growth of U.S. LNG export capacity.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/LNG-Dispute-Highlights-Supply-Vulnerability.html
“Why these industrial giants are betting on the transition to clean energy…
“As the clean-energy transition accelerates in the U.S. on the back of an influx of federal spending, we’re increasingly bullish on big industrial companies that view the shift as an opportunity for growth. Club holdings Linde (LIN), a specialty chemicals maker that has invested heavily in hydrogen projects, and conglomerates Honeywell International (HON) and Caterpillar (CAT) all fit the bill…”
“Wind power industry in moment of reckoning as stocks fall and earnings crumble.
“With the world trying to transition at pace toward cleaner energy, equipment manufacturers are struggling to keep up with soaring global demand, leading to rising production costs and questions over the economic sustainability of large-scale projects from the industry’s major players.”
“The world’s biggest offshore wind developer, Denmark’s Ørsted, has lost two of its most senior executives after it abandoned a pair of windfarm projects off the US coast at a cost of more than £3bn.
“Ørsted told investors that its chief financial officer, Daniel Lerup, and chief operating officer, Richard Hunter, had agreed to step down from their roles with immediate effect because the company needed “new and different capabilities”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/14/wind-developer-orsted-bosses-exit-us
“Native American tribes fight US over a proposed $10B renewable energy transmission line…
“Work on a $10 billion project that will funnel renewable energy across the West has come to a halt in southwestern Arizona, with Native American tribes saying the federal government has ignored concerns about effects that the SunZia transmission line will have on religious and cultural sites.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/deb-haaland-ap-new-mexico-native-american-arizona-b2446700.html
“The Clearest Sign Yet That Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble… Lenders are issuing a record number of foreclosure notices related to risky property loans…
“Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for high-risk property loans, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Many of these loans are similar to second mortgages and commonly known as mezzanine loans.”
“Another day, another housing market record: A homebuyer must now earn $114,627 to afford the median-priced U.S. home, according to Redfin.
“This is up 15% since last year and over 50% since 2020. Meanwhile, the current median household income in the US just $75,000. In other words, the median household income needs to rise 53% for the median person to be able to afford a home. And even then, 50% of people would still not be able to afford a home… We have an affordability crisis.”
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1724478185973150138
“Millions of UK households forced to unplug fridge or freezer amid rising bills.
“About 2m UK households have been forced to turn off their fridge or freezer to save money as they continue to struggle with what poverty campaigners called a “frightening” level of hardship. Nearly half of those households said that since May they had to disconnect their fridge or freezer for the first time…”
“Europe’s problems are far bigger than a shallow recession…
“Economic headwinds are so strong that next year will also be challenging and fading growth potential suggests the euro zone would struggle to expand much more than 1% even with a robust rebound. Deep structural problems mean Europe is bound to trail most other big economic areas for years to come.”
“Finance may be junked from EU climate law, leaked memo shows. Critics say it could be unenforceable.
“A flagship EU law intended to push European companies toward net zero faces being seriously weakened by member states, a confidential document passed to The Associated Press reveals, with firms seemingly no longer forced to implement Paris Agreement goals.”
“Siemens Energy rescue package underwritten by German government…
“The deal is vital to sustaining a €110bn portfolio of clean energy projects planned by the company — a cornerstone of Europe’s green energy transition — which was last month revealed to be in jeopardy amid a lending freeze in the renewables market.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6f01cd42-fb9a-41f6-a9a7-53381d7bce55
“Five years on, France still scarred by ‘yellow vest’ revolt…
“The “yellow vest” movement was born on November 17, 2018 when people in small-town and rural France began blocking roads around the country over a planned increase in environmental fuel taxes that hit car-reliant citizens in the pocket.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/five-years-france-still-scarred-030805063.html
“Kyiv and Warsaw again failed to reach an agreement to stop a week-long Polish truckers’ protest at Ukraine’s border, a Ukrainian official said on Tuesday.
“Polish drivers have been blocking roads to three crossings, in what they call a response to government inaction over a loss of business to foreign competitors since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
“EU likely to miss 1 million-round ammunition target for Ukraine, says Germany as war grinds on.
“The European Union’s goal of supplying Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition is unlikely to be achieved, Germany’s defense minister said Tuesday, as Kyiv remains locked in a grinding war of attrition against Russia with winter approaching.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/14/europe/ukraine-eu-ammunition-target-intl/index.html
“Finland considers closing border with Russia amid spike in asylum seekers.
“Finland’s prime minister on Tuesday said while the government had no information if migrants were being encouraged to move toward the border, “it is clear that they are being helped. They have been escorted and transported,” Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, leader of the conservative National Coalition Party, claimed…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-tighten-border-russia-spike-asylum-seekers/
“Japan’s economy sinks into contraction as spending, investment decline.
“Real gross domestic product, which measures the total value of a nation’s products and services, fell 0.5% in the July-September period for the world’s third largest economy, the Cabinet Office said. That would produce a 2.1% drop if the quarter’s performance continued for a full 12 months.”
“Climate change throws Panama into chaos…
“The country was facing a double crisis of droughts threatening the Panama Canal and growing nationwide protests over a mining contract granted to Canadian company First Quantum Minerals. Now, less than a month later, Panama’s business-friendly image has taken a hit due to the prolonged protests…”
https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/news/climate-change-throws-panama-into-chaos-83162
“El Salvador slaps $1,130 fee on African, Indian travellers amid U.S. migration pressure…
“Aviation officials did not say whether the measure was aimed at reducing migration and have described the tariff as an “airport improvement fee,” but El Salvador’s government acknowledged an uptick in travelers from those countries this year.”
“Migrants are showing up at the U.S. southern border in historic numbers. Here’s why…
“The government has said it’s a symptom of the unprecedented displacement of people worldwide. Biden has pursued a two-fold immigration policy: punishing undocumented border crossings and expanding legal avenues to apply to get into the U.S.”
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/12/1212058889/migrants-u-s-southern-border-historic-numbers-why
“Chicago has become so unpleasant that migrants are fleeing back to Venezuela after being dumped in shelters and refused better paying jobs…
“Now, Illinois’ harsh winters, lack of migrant infrastructure, and ambivalent support from locals has made many people, who undertook the harsh US-Mexico border journey, actually turn around and go back home.”
“Help Wanted: Cuba’s government turns to growing diaspora for investment…
“Cuba wants to tap its fast-growing overseas population for fresh investment to lift its sinking economy, a top foreign ministry official told Reuters this week, as the communist-run nation looks to overcome its worst downturn in decades. Food, fuel and medicine shortages have pushed a record number of Cubans to leave…”
“Bangladesh garment exporters say western brands not paying ‘ethical prices’…
“Big western fashion brands are not paying “ethical” prices for Bangladesh-made clothes, the country’s exporters’ association said, as protests over wages sparked factory closures in the world’s second-largest garment exporter.”
https://www.ft.com/content/fbba322d-597d-4c51-a51b-8e66b436e057
“Bangladesh’s ongoing political crisis is ‘high risk’ for fragile economy…
“The ongoing countrywide road-rail-waterway blockade imposed by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies has disrupted the supply chains and significantly pushed up the cost of transport…”
“Unscheduled outages: As winter sets in, power crisis worsens in Kashmir…
“Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) provincial president Nasir Aslam Wani Sogami called it ”one of the worst power crises in Kashmir” that has left the residents upset with power outages of eight to 10 hours per day across Kashmir.”
“Over 5,000 Myanmar refugees including soldiers flee to India’s Mizoram for refuge amid border clashes.
“Amid intense clashes between the Chin Defence Force guerrillas and the Myanmar military near the Indo-Myanmar international border, approximately 5,000 refugees, including 39 army personnel, have reportedly sought refuge in northeast Indian state Mizoram’s Champhai area since Sunday…”
“Dust, hail and bank loans: the Mongolian herders facing life without grass…
“… climate breakdown and bad management are destroying Mongolia’s grasslands, 90% of which are affected by desertification. Hundreds of thousands of herders have abandoned their flocks and surrendered to the pull of the city.”
“IMF says central bank digital currencies can replace cash: ‘This is not the time to turn back’…
“CBDCs are the digital form of a country’s fiat currency, which are regulated by the country’s central bank. They are powered by blockchain technology, allowing central banks to channel government payments directly to households.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/imf-says-central-bank-digital-currencies-can-replace-cash.html
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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I only get to read your posts Pan about every 2 or 3 days these days. There are two things I take away always. Firstly I am grateful for where I live in comparison to a lot of places you cover. I know it will come to an end some day but not today. Secondly I have come to view the global economy like a magicians levitation trick. I know it is an illusion but I am still in awe how it all the balls are kept in the air nevertheless. My main source of amazement is that the economy is still going and has not collapsed years ago. it has to be the greatest magic trick of all time.
Sorry forgot to say my thanks as always for your mega efforts to cover global events.
Bry, you are welcome.
Re the global economy’s staying power, it is remarkable. It is easily forgotten but economies like the UK, Eurozone and Japan had all but ground to a halt prior to the pandemic and the central banks’ emergency interventions during that period.
Yes, the turmoil is evident throughout the maze of system structure..from the underpaid garment workers in third world nations to struggling folks unplugging their refrigerators and freezers. Naturally, the upper crust is positioning themselves to remain on top by rearranging their spot on the Titanic..
some are abandoning the West completely via the Brics, and some like the Saudi and India playing both sides…wait and see.
Regardless, based on the evidence we are reading here from Justin’s reporting, these will not be effective in stemming the tide of resource depletion, population overshoot and climatic chaos.
I am taken back by the steady and increasing changes taking place.
When will the Seneca Cliff moment take place?
I have two comments today. Here is the first one. The danish straits are generally reguarded as an international waterway. To board Russian Ships in an attempt to enforce western sanctions would be blatant act of war. Since, no later than, March of 2003 nothing other than the law of the jungle has applied on this planet it is of no consuquence that it is a blatant act of war unless the Russians intent to do something about it.
I wonder if the Russians sent warship escorts with their tankers through the staits how the EU would react.
Curt, I have been seeing the USA lately as ‘playing chicken’ with its enemies, constantly baiting them into making a first move. Sometimes politely called brinksmanship .. how far can we push Russia, China, Iran etc before they get angry enough to give us an excuse to blast em back to the stone age (preferably using some other suckers troops).
Putin doesnt want Europe, he just wanted honouring of the Minsk agreements, no NATO expansion/militarisation on his borders with Ukraine neutrality. Doesnt even want any more of Ukraine than he already has, well.. maybe Odesa, Kharkiv, Kherson to make sure his borders are fully secure in the south.
But hes in no hurry. Now that Ukraine is lost in all but official name, US/Nato are sabre-rattling in the Baltic? But I cant see Putin using warships, maybe a plane or two, or some drones, to buzz the Danish 🙂
Naval superiority of the US is not what it used to be, many countries have developed conventional weapons to take out their sea monsters.
Like the aircraft carriers and their fleet of escorts in the east Mediterranean, they are the subject of a lot of West Asian satirical/joke cartoons lately. A lot of subs builtup around there too, including Turkiye’s. Its such a small section of a small sea, I had this insane cartoon vision of them bumping into each other, tangling propellers, antennae etc .. with..”Excuse me”.. oops sorry, just trying to squeeze past…LOL
I could be wrong, but in recent years I see a gradually increasing attitude of much of the world just turning their backs on the US and its EU pets who seem to be determined to cut their own throats or at least act against their own self-interest in rushing to do the Emperors bidding. I see Macron was starting to break ranks on Israel, only to do a U-turn. For all his faults, perhaps Macron had a crisis of personal conscience?
In the 1980’s this type of game playing {US vs USSR} was a daily occurrence.
Chinese fighter jet flies 400 feet in front of U.S. plane in ‘aggressive’ maneuver
https://youtu.be/bVJen3DLkso
Curt, it would, as you suggest, represent quite an escalation.
It sounds like Denmark would ostensibly be checking the insurance documents of Russian tankers, some of which are ageing, on environmental grounds – but also of course to make life more irksome and bureaucratic for the Russians. I’ve noticed a few articles about the rising risk of Arctic oil spills lately:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2394675-surge-of-russian-tankers-in-the-arctic-is-raising-risk-of-oil-spills/
At the moment these plans seem embryonic and no one seems clear on what would actually happen if a Russian vessel refused to stop. Interesting that EU and G7 officials are thinking in these terms though.
My second comment is not about any particular article posted today. It is a general comment about the expansion of BRICS. A lot of people on the left have been touting how China is remaking one the one world global order. That the Chinese brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran seemed to be a big feather in the Chinese Cap. That Saudi Arabia was invited to join brics seems to show that Saudi Arabia was at least attempting to break out of the US led western camp. The narrative that the Saudis became concerned about US banking power when the US siezed Russian accounts seemed to be plausible motive for the Saudi change of heart towards the US and the west.
I was really surprised by these developements none the less because I always thought that the US was in as complete control of Saudi Arabia as it is Israel. But for precisely that reason I was also quite sceptical if these developmetns were genuine. On one hand I thought that maybe the US did not really care any more Saudi Arabia possibly because the Saudia had damaged thier oil fields through mismanagment and would have rapidly declining yields in the near future. On another hand I thought maybe the US is really enraged by this apparent switching of sides. But that it may only take one assassination to reorient the Saudis back towards the west.
But now I think I see this change in Saudi positioning for the brilliant western Chess (or Go) move that it is. Without spending a cent or taking a bit of risk the United States by letting the Chinese seem to reel in the Saudis have taken away the best card that the Iranians had for detering any kind of attacks that the US may decide to launch against Iran. While the Iranians and the Saudis were adversaries, if not enemies, if the US had attacked Iran, the Iranians could have launched massive attacks against Saudi oil fields trying to set them ablaze.
The chances of success would have been reasonably good. The chances of success in launching attacks against the much more distant Israel is much less. And the leaders in the US would have much less concerned about any damage to Israel that would have been done.
I could not see this move for what it was at the time becuase I thought that the Palestinians, and even Hammas had given up trying to reclaim territory that the Israelis have stolen from them. Therefore I did not see this new round of warfare in the middle east comming. But one thing is I find it very hard to swallow that the Mossad did not see this Hammas attack comming. Therefore I find it extra hard to swallow that the US MIC was unaware of what was going to happen on October 7th 2023. After all tunnel digging detection technology is world war one technology. Amassing a rocket arsenal when you are essentially a besieged city state can hardly pass unnoticed to even an amature intellegence agency. I suspect that this whole series of events was a Pearl Harbor 3.0.
Where’s you extraordinary evedience for your extraordinary conspiracy claim?
I am not sure if your are joking or not because your question seems so extraordinary.
If you are not joking what part of my comment seems extraordinary?
Nothing that i can see,based upon what has happened in the world in the past 25 years (or 50 years) seems extraordinary at all to me. Therefore I do not see a need to produce any extraordinary information.
If someone has still has faith in the narratives that our governments tell us perhaps what I wrote about Saudia Arabia actually being told by the PTB in Washington to make peace with Iran and apply to join BRICS might seem baseless. I myself do not have faith all the leftist narratives that crop up to contridict the government narratives either.
There is also a problem with the implication of your challenge. Figuring our what is really going on in the world is not a science. The phrase that you used was first used in a scientific context. But world affairs are not reducable to a controled scientific experiment.
If by extraordinary evidence you mean some kind of classified document or voice recording such as occured during the watergate era that is asking for non sense. First of all if I had something of that nature I obviously would not be able to make it public. Second of all there is no such thing as evidence that can not be faked well enough to fool some people. So there will always be debate about whether or not evidence is real or fake. Then there is eye witness and expert testimony. But those types of things depend upon jurors to determine which eye witnesses are credible and which have been bought off. The same with expert testimony.
Bringiing this all back to the question of Saudi Arabia, with the new situation in the Middle East the US does not need to spend a cent to help defend Saudi Arabia. Before anyone does anything important it is certianly reasonable to due a cost benifit risk analysis. For now The Saudi Iran peace deal gave the US huge benifits at no costs and no risks. Now if the Saudis lead another 1973 style oil embargo against the west Then I will say that the US might not have told the Saudis to follow the path that they did.
But even if the Saudis do lead a 1973 style oil embargo in the future the suspicion that they were told by the US to make peace with Iran and apply to join BRICS would not neccessarily be nuffied because someone in Saudi Arabia might have just decided that he should change his mind about offering things other than words to the Russian-Chinese-Iranian side in this conflict. It is clearly a judgement call on how much risk there is of the leader of Saudi Arabia trying to do such a thing. I personally think that the risk is very small.
Yes Curt, I follow your reasoning, but there were other jigsaw pieces on the Go/Chess board .. on the economic side with the US-Led idea of the IMEC plan or I2U2 concept presented to great fanfare at the recent G20 meeting, and so blatantly obvious an “alternative” to the Chinese BRI designed to win over India and Saudi Arabia back from China (and Russia).
I dont know of course, but Saudis and India may be trying to keep a foot in each camp.
In addition, rumours of the Ben Gurion canal being revived at a meeting held in late September with Netanyahu in Washington.
The Ben Gurion canal was proposed as a bypass of the Suez Canal way back in the late 40s, early 50s but Israel invaded Egypt anyway to try and capture it 🙂
.. but it was to come out in northern Gaza. Hence the complete levelling of northern Gaza. Nothing to go back to, clear it and level it for new construction once the organic matter has been gotten rid of.
Pity about the 2+ million Palestinians in the way, so herding the cattle south, with no food, no water etc, blown sewers, no toilets etc, disease, bombing them 24/7, sniping at them regularly, force them south to be squeezed up against Egypt border. Putting pressure on Egypt to “do the right thing”.
Apparently, Sisi was offerred a great deal of money to allow them to be dumped as human ‘landfill’ in the Sinai.
Then they can bulldoze the south, and build an Israeli Riviera style strip for anglo/euro seaside villas and holiday resorts up close to the new shipping canal and port just across from the natural gas field.
Like you, I believe Mossad and co, knew something was going down by Hammas, but didnt know exactly when or just how large an incursion it would be. They let it happen, as the perfect excuse, but were still surprised by the size and scale of the operation.
The beheaded babies, rapes stories etc were debunked very quickly (apparently those stories/footage came out of India and/or Pakistan) Its only coming out this last week or so, that half the deaths on Oct 7 were Israeli uniformed troops, and another half of the civilians were killed by IDF tanks and attack helicopters either deliberately in blowing the fleeing cars and houses, or crossfire at the music festival. Hammas dont have weapons to do that kind of damage to buildings or cars. There are survivor witnesses who are on record. As for using “human shields”, Israel put their bases and outposts in the middle of residential kibbutzim, many of whom are military families. (Soldiers can walk to work)
As for the hospitals… sigh.. Israel has been saying it now for so long, screamed to the whole planet..even if Hammas did once have HQs underneath, dont you think they would have moved them by now?
Im waiting for the amateur CGI-enhanced videos and planted “evidence”.
But the US must be desperate to push the Arab/Persian/Turkic world in such a way… brinkmanship .. playing “chicken”…
C&E is a remarkable project, world-historic in many senses, but let’s all just calm down and drink a Coors Lite and acknowledge that, according to the will and informed opinion of the American People, there is no “climate crisis.”
A full 76% of American adults believe that they WILL FACE NO OR ONLY MINOR SACRIFICES in their entire everyday lives from climate change (source: https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/10/25/how-americans-view-future-harms-from-climate-change-in-their-community-and-around-the-u-s/
Climate crisis? What climate crisis? To us? No way. A full 53% of these long-lived fellow members of an allegedly sentient species residing in the world’s no.1 emitter are “suspicious of the groups and people pushing for action.”
So there ya have it, C&E folks. They ain’t listening, and they ain’t never gonna listen. Because the US has become a gigantic dummy-making factory.
“C&E is a remarkable project.”
Thank you, Martin – I appreciate the compliment!
This is not an economic comment. But it is a comment about the EU which is the economic side of NAT0.
I wish to spread a bit of my joy none the less. I was pleased to read that Ireland is the most pro Palestinian country in the EU. I am not sure if I have any Irish ancestery. I have one great granparent whose name was Denny. I do not know anything about that line of my family tree though.
No I am pleased by the stance of so many Irish people because John Riley is one of my favorite historical figures. John Riley was the leader of the Saint Patricks Battalion which fought on the side of the Mexicans in the war of American Argression against Mexico. This unit had quite a number of deserters from the US military.
John Riley actually sets a proper example of professional military conduct. American military personnel have been improperly trained by their supiriors for such a long time that they are totally incapable of rediscovering what proper military behavior consists of. Americans like the Brits believe that if your supirior gives you an order that you have to actually follow it, unless it is a blatant war crime, like the Me Lai Massacre. This is complete bull shit.
John Riley and the other soldiers who deserted to join him knew that when the country whose uniform that you wear is on unjust side of a war all orders given are illegal orders except the order to surrender. Therefore the soldiers receiving such orders not should not obey the orders they should attempt to arrest or kill those that issue such orders. Of course if you are outnumbered 1000 to 1 that may not be possible. None the less to follow illegal orders is a gross deriliction of duty.
Anyways that is the explination of why I love John Riley. And because I love John Riley I have a special spot in my heart for the Republic of Ireland.
Shit I did not realize that a crucial sentence was so screwd up above. It should have bee, “Therefore the soldiers recieving such orders should not only not obey the orders they should attempt to arrest or kill those issuing such illegal orders.
I would like to also add as long as I am now wrighting a new comment, that attempting to prevent illegal orders from being carried is an act of defence of a third party. In the case under discussion those innocent people who would be harmed if the illegal orders were carried out.
Aggrssors have no right to self defence. They have only the right to surrender or commit suicide.
Yes of course I know that as a practical matter aggressors will not admit to being aggressors because they feel that the size of their numbers will protect them.
Say my comment is awaiting moderation. That has never happened before. But were you reading the comment that I just posted and decided that if I post this I could face some kind of legal sanction or what gives?
So this is wild. The comment in which I corrected a gramatical error I awaiting moderation. But the comment in which I question how bizzare that was is not waiting moderation.
No to be clear I am not concerned about myself facing legal action. But are you concerned about facing legal action?
Ok to be clear I had one to many nots in my sentence about not obeying illegal orders.
But in my comment about that disappeard with a message that it was undergoing moderation, I said that this behavior is legally justifiable as a defence of an innocent 3rd party, in the case at hand all of those who would be harmed by carrying out the illegal orders.
I also remember that one other sentence that I wrote in the comment that disappeard was that only legal order that can be given by the army which stands on the unjust side of a conflict is the order to surrender.
But of course as a practical matter the soldiers on such a side will never admit where they stand because they think that they have the protection of numbers. Maybe their fellow members will protect them.