“Copper Market Slump Threatens Shift to Wind Power, Electric Cars… A prolonged slide in copper prices is challenging the world’s shift to renewable energy sources.
“Mining firms will need to dig up gigantic amounts of new copper over the next several years to supply the transition to renewables. But demand is slumping right now from manufacturers and builders who use the metal in everything from electrical wire to roofing…
“The dynamic leaves the market poised for a crunch that could lead to price spikes and shortfalls, said Goldman Sachs metals strategist Nicholas Snowdon. “It’s a matter of when, not if, the market goes into an extreme state of scarcity and the copper price spike plays out,” he said…
“Analysts say investments are needed soon, because new mines take years to develop.”
“Carmakers step up EV discounts in bid to stem global demand slowdown.
“Carmakers in leading western markets have significantly increased the range and scale of discounts they offer on electric vehicles in a bid to counter weaker-than-expected appetite for battery models among mainstream buyers.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ae42f287-e325-423b-9e69-03416a3826ba
“Geopolitical risks worst in 50 years, warns oil services boss [Baker Hughes’ CEO].
“Geopolitical risks are at their highest level in half a century, the head of one of the world’s biggest oilfield services companies has said, raising concerns about energy supplies and helping to fuel a boom in liquefied natural gas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/431fccf7-7692-441f-b20f-d2fdfbd04f2c
“US seeks to thwart Russia’s ambition to become a major LNG exporter.
“The US is directly targeting Russia’s ability to export liquefied natural gas for the first time, in a move that could cause disruptions in global energy markets that Washington has so far been keen to avoid… in early November, the US State Department announced sanctions on a new Russian development known as Arctic LNG 2…”
https://www.ft.com/content/68190f21-d8b0-4b52-992d-37f620b4fb3a
“Oil majors call on Washington and Brussels to intervene in LNG dispute.
“Shell and BP have asked Washington and Brussels to intervene in a bitter dispute with Venture Global LNG, warning the company’s refusal to honour a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas supply contracts threatens Europe’s energy security.”
https://www.ft.com/content/90891fb9-9bb9-4777-8b10-5e071514ea09
“Credit agency Moody’s cuts outlook on US government to negative…
“Moody’s warned that the US’s deficits are likely to remain “very large” in the face of higher interest rates. It also cautioned that “continued political polarization” in Congress raises the risk that governments “will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/10/moodys-us-government-credit-rating-negative
“U.S. Treasury bonds are not ‘safe’…
“Consider some grim numbers: An investment in 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has lost a third of its value, in real, inflation-adjusted terms, in just over three years. Investments in long-term Treasurys have lost about half their value. They have fallen as much as U.S. stocks did during the global financial crisis. 10-year Treasury bonds have been a worse investment than gold bullion this year.”
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231111232/us-treasury-bonds-are-not-safe
“The U.S. Now Has:
1. Record $17.29 trillion in household debt; 2. Record $12.14 trillion in mortgages; 3. Record $1.60 trillion in auto loans; 4. Record $1.08 trillion in credit card debt; Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006 peak and mortgage rates are nearly 1.5% higher than the 2008 peak… What’s the long-term plan here?”
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1723405286306656614
“The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening…
“If Americans lose faith that inflation can ever return to normal that would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy even more — either by raising interest rates or keeping them elevated for much longer than expected.”
“US bank stocks sink to all-time low against S&P 500.
“US bank stocks have fallen to an all-time low compared with the blue-chip S&P 500 index, as demand for big-name technology stocks and the fallout from the banking crisis in March deter investors.”
https://www.ft.com/content/95a07449-6b1c-493b-9b1f-1bee17c5ce47
“Wall Street Warns of Risks in Push to Rein In Home-Loan Banks.
“A push by US regulators to rein in the Federal Home Loan Banks risks casting broad ripples through the US financial system, increasing costs to banks by pulling a major force from the nation’s funding markets. That’s a key takeaway from Wall Street strategists after the Federal Housing Finance Agency released a report this week that called for limiting access to loans from the banks.”
“Onshore wind projects in England stall as no new applications are received.
“The government has received no new applications for onshore wind farms in England since cabinet ministers eased planning rules earlier this year – in a further sign that Rishi Sunak’s anti-green policy shift is driving investment abroad.”
“The future of the humble paper bank statement is at stake amid a cash crunch at the main print supplier to Britain’s big high street banks.
“A finance industry-led rescue operation to save Leeds-based Communisis is being spearheaded by Lloyds but hopes of a salvage deal were fading this weekend.”
“‘People are worried’: the ‘prepper’ shops serving Britons who fear doomsday is coming…
“With increasing threats posed by climate breakdown, such as flooding and wildfires, as well as fears over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “prepping” has elbowed its way into mainstream society. The scenes of empty food shelves caused by panic buying early in the pandemic have exposed Britain’s fragile retail supply chains…”
“Europe braces for a winter of two wars… With fighting raging in the Middle East, the EU is hoping it can avoid a repeat of last year’s energy crisis…
“Last winter, Europeans faced exorbitant energy bills as the Continent rapidly weaned itself off Russian gas. This year the EU is better prepared — but now a second war also threatens to roil its energy markets.”
“The shattering of Schengen: The map that reveals how ELEVEN countries – from France to Slovakia, Sweden to Germany – are rebelling against EU free movement in the face of terrorism and out-of-control immigration…
“Border checks are springing up across the bloc in a scramble by governments to restore their sovereignty and bolster national security to safeguard citizens.”
“German homebuilding collapse threatens wider economic damage…
“Across Germany, homebuilders are facing such a sharp reversal in their fortunes that the downturn in residential construction is threatening to have broader repercussions across Europe’s largest economy. Many have declared themselves insolvent…”
https://www.ft.com/content/b60fa38a-9cca-4170-a9f7-a0826b9ca74b
“Fresh protests held across Spain over amnesty deal for Catalan separatists…
“Tens of thousands of people have gathered across Spain to protest against the acting government’s plans to secure another term in office by offering an amnesty to those who took part in the illegal and failed push for Catalan independence six years ago.”
“Portugal’s Costa apologizes for cash seized at his official residence… Despite a far-reaching corruption scandal, the prime minister insists the country remains safe for foreign investors…
“Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa apologized to the country’s people on Saturday, expressing embarrassment for the corruption probe launched against himself and several members of his administration.”
“Indonesia’s growing resource nationalism stirs Global South…
“Beginning with a ban on exports of raw nickel ore in January 2020, Widodo has expanded restrictions to other metals, imposing an export ban on bauxite, the ore used to make aluminum, in June this year. The list will grow next June after the country adds five more items, including copper concentrate, tin and gold.”
“The Argentines are not alright: Therapists reflect on a growing mental health crisis…
“A 2017 report from the World Health Organization found that Argentina has 222 psychologists for every 100,000 people, the highest number per capita in the world. But as several therapists in Buenos Aires recently told the Herald, they’re struggling to keep pace with a mental health emergency that only appears to be growing with the country’s political and financial turmoil.”
“Thousands in Honduras march in anti-government protest…
“The opposition protest was sparked after the ruling party elected a new interim chief prosecutor on November 1, without holding a congressional vote. Lawmakers with Castro’s Liberty and Refoundation Party (Libre) used a committee vote where their members make up a majority to secure the nomination, even though they represent a minority in the Congress overall.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/thousands-honduras-march-anti-government-protest-2023-11-11/
“Jamaica’s shaky financial system unprepared for a major natural disaster…
“Jamaica has been in the midst of a grave ecological crisis for some time now, to which our feckless Government has paid scant attention. According to the IMF, Jamaica’s vulnerability to natural disasters places it in the top 20 countries globally.”
“As Cuba’s economic crisis deepens, citizens scramble to migrate by any means.
“Havana’s airport has become a launch point for Cubans making their way to Nicaragua and then overland to the US, often attempting illegal entry… Despite the long onward journey, Nicaragua since 2021 has required no visa of Cuban migrants, and thus remains the easiest route to get to the US, said several of those interviewed.”
“”Violence against civilians in Sudan is “verging on pure evil,” a senior UNofficial has warned, as fighting escalates seven months into the war between the army and paramilitaries…
““We continue to receive unrelenting and appalling reports of sexual and gender-based violence, enforced disappearance, arbitrary detentions and grave violations of human and children’s rights,” she told reporters.”
“Displaced Gazans live in dust, fear and hunger…
“Perched on trucks, crammed into cars, pulled by donkeys on carts, and on foot, tens of thousands of Palestinians are fleeing Israeli army strikes on the territory squeezed between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231112-displaced-gazans-live-in-dust-fear-and-hunger
“18 Israelis injured in Hezbollah missile strikes as border tensions grow.
“Eighteen Israelis have been injured, one critically, after the Iranian backed Hezbollah militia fired anti-tank missiles from southern Lebanon in a further sign that the skirmishes along the border are steadily escalating. Several vehicles near the northern community of Dovev were hit in the missile strike…”
“US announces fresh strikes on Iran-linked sites in Syria…
“It is the third time in less than three weeks that the US military has targeted locations in Syria it said were tied to Iran, which supports armed groups that Washington blames for a spike in attacks on its forces in the Middle East.”
“Pakistan’s expulsion order deepens the Afghan crisis…
“Entire families are being uprooted, and are crossing back into Taliban-ruled Afghanistan without food, water or shelter. The impending arrival of thousands more means Afghanistan’s fortunes are about to slide even further.”
https://www.ft.com/content/827815dd-3d5e-4b7f-87f2-363f70fdca2d
“Across the globe, compassion for migrants has given way to cruel, performative politics…
“What the obsession with immigration does, de Haas observes, is make it easier to turn questions about social policy at home – from stagnating wages to a lack of affordable housing – into a debate about an external threat to the nation.”
“NHS bosses issue warning about ‘worldwide shortage’ of ADHD medication…
“Drugs including methylphenidate, atomoxetine, lisisdexamfetamine and guanfacine have been affected, and NHS leaders fear some people may not be able to get their usual prescriptions. This follows other recent drug shortages, especially affecting HRT drugs, including for menopausal women and trans people.”
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/health/nhs-adhd-medication-shortage-warning-28057691
“Global Ozempic shortage leaves diabetics with uncertain future in managing their condition…
“Perth woman Leonie, 60, is facing a life-changing diagnosis. “My life will be shortened … my quality of life will not be the same,” she said. Leonie has been told she has peripheral neuropathy, a type of nerve damage, in her feet.”
“Floating factories of artificial leaves could make green fuel for jets and ships…
“Reisner and his colleagues envisage exploiting the technology to build carpets of artificial leaves that would float on lakes and river estuaries, and use sunlight to convert water and carbon dioxide into the components of petrol and other fuels.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Great coverage Pan! Another good set of articles/links.
Except for the Guardian, just my own personal irritation over recent months, or a year, or maybe more. They are becoming increasingly more and more rigid in parroting neocon propaganda.
My own research on BRICS (soon to be the BRICS11 chaired by Putin for his year’s rotation, and an internal issue with India’s Modi not playing along, or trying to keep one foot in each camp, along with India’s hindu elites being rabidly anti-muslim).
Anyway, researching BRICS economic planning has been fruitful, I could be wrong, but the way I understand from reading /listening to Pepe Escobar and Michael Hudson’s commentaries, is that BRICS are trying to establish a tweaked Keynesian economic model. Money/capital as a public utility.
While there have been established alternative international payment systems (ie outside the US/EU controlled SWIFT system) they are close to establishing the BRICS Development Bank in 2024, as an alternative to the IMF / World Bank etc (also dominated by US / EU for weaponisation).
On the climate side, they are focussing mostly on encouraging local/regional mitigation & adaptation projects of smaller mixed economies, mixed energy solutions, along their Belt and Road initiative.
Pepe Escobar is entertaining in his commentary, opining on Xi and Biden’s trade talks meeting next week. Eg ‘ the look on Xi’s and Putins faces is classic trying to keep a polite diplomatic face talking to “irrational delusional childish psychopaths”.
Didnt the US get the message when the major Arab countries snubbed Biden and Blinken? And the G7/NATO sycophants? (Although to be fair, Macron seems to be trying to find a way to break ranks)
Are there any grownups in Washington? Is the US seriously asking countries like China to “help” in enforcing sanctions on Russia or Iran, in exchange for lifting sanctions on one of us? (That arent seriously hurting us by the way, now we’ve found a bunch of workarounds …)
Just a suggestion Pan,but you might want to include some of the increasing news & analysis being published on the economic/climate activities of BRICS.
“Great coverage Pan! Another good set of articles/links.”
Thank you, Rain.
“Just a suggestion Pan, but you might want to include some of the increasing news & analysis being published on the economic/climate activities of BRICS.”
The addition of six new nations to BRICS was a major story a few months ago, pointing as it did to further fragmentation of the global economy and further geopolitical polarisation, but there hasn’t been a BRICS story since that has caused me to prick up my ears. If a BRICS currency or official alternative to SWIFT were announced then that would certainly be big news.
I’m really focused more on areas of risk and vulnerability than localised attempts at climate mitigation, or strategic economic co-operation etc. Re the BRICS bank, I thought it had been around for years?
I’m also keenly aware that the Global South versus US/West fracture is emotive and many readers are very personally invested in it, so these are areas I tread with some caution and trepidation. I do not wish to inflame partisan sentiment. My hope is that these patchwork quilts of articles offer an edifying overview and I am not endorsing the prejudices of any of the individual publications used. I’ll do my best not to post anything too objectionable by The Guardian. 😆
Brief rundown on alternatives to SWIFt, most are still being trialled / tested as in kind of beta-testing phase I guess
https://youtu.be/ya7uELpsq60?si=ZVJRAy4T8Jfn52qp
Hello, Justin, looks troublesome…world. war clouds are brewing…
The New York Times
Behind Public Assurances, Xi Jinping Spreads Grim Views on U.S.
Chris Buckley
Mon, November 13, 2023 at 8:03 AM EST·10 min read
Rather long read…here are bits..
The global financial crisis of 2007-08 had shattered official Chinese assumptions that Washington’s economic policymakers were competent, even if Beijing disagreed with them. Chinese officials quizzed American officials like Hank Paulson, then the Treasury secretary, about their mishandling of the situation. For many in Beijing, the lessons extended beyond the financial system.
It was a defining moment,” said Desmond Shum, a business owner whose memoir, “Red Roulette,” describes those years, when he mingled with China’s political elite. “After that point, the entire Western model was questioned much more. There was also this growing belief that the world would need China to lead the way out of the mess.”
As Xi prepared to become China’s leader, President Vladimir Putin of Russia was emerging as a model of an authoritarian strongman pushing back against U.S. pre-eminence.
“These two men have a shared mental map of the world — not perfectly the same, but shared,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Both want to return their countries to a lost inheritance of greatness; both want to reclaim key territories; both have a shared sense of the trauma of the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
…In particular, Xi and Putin, who met in 2010, shared a suspicion that the United States was bent on destabilizing its rivals by instigating insurrection in the name of democracy. Xi and other Chinese leaders adopted Putin’s conception of “color revolutions” to describe such unrest.
…..The ‘laws of the jungle’ of international competition have not changed,” he told military delegates to China’s national legislature in 2014. He pointed to the growing presence of U.S. jets, ships and aircraft carriers in the Asia-Pacific region as evidence that the United States was seeking to contain China.
He also said that the pro-Western protests that were then sweeping across Ukraine were a warning for Beijing. “Some Western countries are fanning the flames there and secretly scheming to achieve their geopolitical goals there,” he said. “We must take heed of this lesson
https://www.yahoo.com/news/behind-public-assurances-xi-jinping-130327081.html
Never mind the other troubles we have brewing…
The meeting will be interesting for sure. This won’t have improved chances of détente:
“The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth… While fury is Beijing’s default response to any military support for Taiwan, this time something was different. The $80m is not a loan. It comes from American taxpayers.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67282107
I haven’t said anything since Panopticon deemed my input “not what the site is about”, or some such. My intent is not to troll, or to upset anyone, but this is a good time to relate my 2 cents.
“… so these are areas I tread with some caution and trepidation. I do not wish to inflame partisan sentiment. My hope is that these patchwork quilts of articles offer an edifying overview and I am not condoning or endorsing the prejudices of any of the …”
Panopticon, if you really think that what amounts to WWIII is not going to effect the climate and the economy, or if you really think that avoiding the mention of the ongoing genocide, the war in Ukraine, and the ongoing rift between the genocidal US and the global south will somehow make your site more important/useful, you are sorely mistaken. You risk making the site irrelevant.
And, I am sorry for being blunt, but if you can’t/won’t take a side against actual genocide … well … .
“…if you can’t/won’t take a side against actual genocide … well…”
The whole purpose of this site (which is distinct from me as a human-being btw) is to offer as much of an overview as possible. This is the diametric opposite of taking sides. Readers are then free to formulate their own views.
I do not like the implication that in not overtly labelling or judging events on this site I am somehow morally negligent. Climate & Economy is not here to feed your sense of moral outrage. Goodness knows there are a gazillion sites on the web that will do that.
Oh Pintada *hugs*
I didnt mind the *topic* of the Ukraine war, just found the blow-by-blow detailed battle-by-battle descriptions of military movements on the battlefield extremely boring 😉
Methinx Pan is just reminding us to remember our manners as commenters and not turn the site into so many others where the commentariat does turn into a peanut gallery.
I got interested in political discourse at the age of 8 years old. It was the late 1960s, a pretty easy time to be swept up in politcal fevor. Though admittadly most 8 year old children at that time were not as engrossed in it as I was.
When I was young adults would often tell me that I was waisting my time, you can not fight city hall was their common refrain. Then there was the refrain, you have to be rich if you want to get any changes made. In adulthood I met many people who thought political action was a useless activity. All of these critics of my behavior did turn out to be right. But I am still glad that I did not heed their warnings.
I never thought that it would be easy to achieve any results that would actually lead to positive changes. But sometimes the journey is just as much an end in itself as the destination. Not being a politician or a wealthy person I considered my own role in the grand scheme of things not be a not to be that of a lawyer (in a movie or tv show) but being a juror (in a movie or tv show) who would passionatley argue for one or the other but who was free to switch sides when presented with good enough arguements for doing so. The movie 12 Angry Men was a classic for me.
So while it certianly makes sense to prevent an overview and let the readers decided for themselves where the evidence is leading us.
Would making the comments section a jury room where the readers could try to peruade other readers (jurors) which side or sides were supported by the preponderance of the evidence really conflict with presenting the overview?
At this point in history I think that it is far far far far far far to late make any difference about what course history will take. But maybe I added one far to few. The discussions can still be entertaining, while we wait for history to unfold before our eyes.
“Would making the comments section a jury room where the readers could try to persuade other readers (jurors) which side or sides were supported by the preponderance of the evidence really conflict with presenting the overview?”
Curt, the threads I put together are one thing, the comments section another. I have yet to delete a comment and have no issue with commenters arguing the merits or the morality of the various protagonists featured in the overview, as long as it’s not too antagonistic or repetitive. We live in hope. 😆
I guess one obvious point to make is that this website turns over to a new thread six days out of seven, which means that the comments section doesn’t really lend itself to lengthy, legal-style deliberations – but I certainly don’t have any objection to them.
Let’s start a list of moral values.
Unregulated free market capitalism is #1.
It must be,it is working out so well for everyone.
2 – Money printing
3 – No strict scheduled requirements for banks to manipulate interest rates
4 – Tax cuts for the rich.
5 – Bailouts for banks & corporations
6 – No harsh punishment for fraud/theft
I didn’t realize how good we’ve got it.
What did I miss having such a high moral code & being so pure of heart? 😉