“World will overshoot 2030 coal limit to tame warming by twice over.
“Notwithstanding the global consensus among countries that fossil fuel emissions must be eliminated, a new report says that the governments plan to produce twice as much fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.”
“Climate Urgency Dominates Debate as New Economy Forum Wraps Up.
“Climate change, the energy transition and the financial plumbing needed to channel trillions of dollars toward green investment dominated discussions on the third and final day of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/climate-urgency-dominates-debate-as-new-economy-forum-wraps-up-1.1996682
“Nuclear Is Out, Hydrogen Is In: Where Countries Put Energy Research & Development Money.
“…$24.7 billion, the total public-sector spend by 31 IEA members on energy R&D last year. The sector composition of those dollars is worth noting, and watching, as it reflects country priorities for energy technology development and security.”
“The only company to have a small modular nuclear power plant approved in the US… has cancelled its first project due to rising costs.
“NuScale Power announced on Wednesday that it had dropped plans to build a long-promised “carbon free power project” in Idaho. It blamed the decision on a lack of subscribers for the plant’s electricity.”
“Shell is suing Greenpeace for $2.1m in damages in one of the biggest ever legal threats against the group after its campaigners occupied a moving oil platform earlier this year.
“The lawsuit calls for an indefinite block on all protests at Shell infrastructure at sea or in port anywhere in the world, or the company will make claims…”
“Energy company’s multimillion-dollar lawsuit against Mountain Valley Pipeline activists sets an alarming precedent for future protests…
“The lawsuit asked the judge to award compensatory and punitive damages of more than $1.3 million, as well as additional damages of $3 million levied against individual protesters and the grassroots organizations…”
https://prismreports.org/2023/11/08/mountain-valley-pipeline-lawsuit-alarming-precedent-protests/
“Approval of divisive Alaska oil project upheld in blow to US climate goals…
“A federal judge has upheld the Biden administration’s approval of the Willow oil-drilling project in a remote part of northern Alaska in a move that environmental groups warned will have “tragic consequences” for the Arctic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/09/alaska-willow-oil-drilling-environment
“Two-thirds of North America could face power shortages this winter -NERC.
“More than half of the U.S. and parts of Canada, home to around 180 million people, could fall short of electricity during extreme cold again this winter due to lacking natural gas infrastructure, the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC) said on Wednesday.”
“Canada says it can fight climate change and be major oil nation. Massive fires may force a reckoning.
“…the seemingly endless fire season, which created hazardous air in many U.S. states thousands of miles away, is putting a spotlight on two aspects of Canada that increasingly feel at odds: the country’s commitment to fighting climate change and its status as the world’s fourth-largest oil producer.”
“Sunak’s attendance at Cop28 will be a global embarrassment for Britain…
“I wasn’t surprised to find a repeat of old policies announced in the King’s Speech – namely, prime minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to accelerate annual North Sea oil and gas licensing. The announcement comes just weeks before world governments converge on the UN Cop28 climate summit…”
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/sunak-britain-climate-goals-cop28-renewables-b2443879.html
“UK productivity almost flat since the financial crisis [unsurprising, given our worsening net energy problem]…
“Total factor productivity — a measure of how efficiently resources are used in the economy — was last year only 1.7 per cent above the level recorded in 2007, when the country was heading into the credit crunch. It was also just a fraction of the pace recorded in the 16 years up to 2007, when productivity increased 27 per cent…”
https://www.ft.com/content/2a0dbab1-f6a5-4432-8984-4112638dfdf0
“High interest rates grind UK economy to a halt.
“Britain’s economy flatlined in the three months to September, as high interest rates hammered household spending and business investment. The lack of growth will serve as a blow to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as he prepares for this month’s Autumn Statement.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/10/interest-rates-grind-uk-economy-halt-recession/
“The European Union is set to propose extending emergency rules first aimed at stemming an unprecedented energy crisis last year as conflict in the Middle East and concerns about the security of the region’s gas infrastructure pose new risks.
“The 27-nations EU saw gas and electricity prices surging to all-time highs in 2022, contributing to double-digit inflation across the region…”
“Germany to subsidise industrial energy costs.
“Germany has announced a multibillion-euro package to cut electricity costs for its manufacturers for the next five years through a mixture of tax cuts and direct subsidies. Industrial companies are expected to receive an additional €12 billion in relief on their bills next year…”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-to-subsidise-industrial-energy-costs-cwtrjqvjf
“Portugal activists urge suspension of lithium projects after PM quits.
“Portuguese anti-mining groups have urged the government to suspend and review all lithium projects while authorities investigate alleged corruption in the handling of “green” energy deals that have led to the resignation of the prime minister.”
“Anti-mining protests that have roiled Panama for the last two weeks turned deadly on Tuesday when a man allegedly shot and killed two demonstrators, according to police.
“A chilling video posted by bystanders on X, formerly known as Twitter, showed a dishevelled elderly man apparently frustrated with the logjam trying to force the protestors to remove a barrier…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/08/americas/demonstrators-killed-mining-protests-panama/index.html
“Protests by Bolivian miners turn violent…
“Protest marches in La Paz by the union of Bolivian gold miners turned violent after several days of demanding the repeal of a government resolution barring them from working in the country’s protected areas, especially Madidi National Park, a huge preserve in the upper Amazon…”
https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-11-08/protests-by-bolivian-miners-turn-violent.html
“Recession-hit Peru aims to boost investment with stimulus package…
“Economy Minister Alex Contreras said the measures included moves to attract investments to the country’s critical mining sector and boosting mining production. The world’s no. 2 copper producer slid into recession this year due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, lower private investment and lingering effects from earlier social conflicts.”
“Economists warn electing far-right Milei would spell ‘devastation’ for Argentina…
“Four in 10 citizens currently live in poverty and annual inflation is close to 140% – a crisis Milei has vowed to fix by defeating his rival, Argentina’s finance minister, Sergio Massa, and taking dramatic measures such abolishing the central bank and dollarizing the economy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/argentina-election-javier-milei-economists-warning
“Madagascar: At least 16 injured in opposition protests as tensions rise ahead presidential.
“The protests by the coalition of opposition candidates taking part in the upcoming elections, are being held to denounce what they have called “an illegitimate electoral process”. Thirteen candidates are running for next week’s election including the incumbent… But things seem to have gotten to a rocky start.”
“Army bases fall to RSF in Sudan forcing thousands to flee – as harrowing details of sieges emerge…
“The RSF gains are the latest harrowing developments in more than half a year of fighting between the Darfur-born “janjaweed” militia turned paramilitary group and their former security partners and the national army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).”
“In a Tunisian town, Sudanese refugees wait in fear for UN protection.
“It is unlikely that the relatively small tourist and fishing town of Zarzis, near the border with Libya, is somewhere the several hundred or so Sudanese refugees ever imagined they would end up. Nevertheless, here they are…”
“Iran warns of ‘inevitable expansion’ of Israel-Gaza war.
“An expansion of the scope of the war in Gaza is “inevitable” due to Israel’s heightened aggression, according to Iran’s foreign minister. Hossein Amirabdollahian made the statement in a phone conversation with Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/10/iran-warns-of-inevitable-expansion-of-israel-gaza-war
“US forces targeted in broadest Iraq attacks since start of Israel-Hamas war.
“A joint patrol of US forces and the Iraqi counter-terrorism service was targeted by an explosive device near the northern city of Mosul, causing damage to a vehicle but no casualties, two security sources said. Armed drones also targeted the al-Harir airbase in Erbil and the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad…”
“In Ultimatum to Yerevan, Azerbaijan Demands 8 Villages from Armenia.
“Azerbaijan demanded what it called eight “occupied” villages from Armenia, issuing an ultimatum to Yerevan and accusing the government there of hindering the peace process. At the same time Baku announced that Azerbaijani forces will conduct military drill is occupied Stepanakert on Wednesday.”
https://asbarez.com/in-ultimatum-to-yerevan-baku-demands-8-villages-from-armenia/
“China returns to deflation as economy faces challenges on many fronts…
“Core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as food and fuel, also fell back further towards parity at 0.6% compared to the 0.8% figure revealed for September. It suggests that downward pressure on prices is intensifying.”
“The critical challenge of titanium shortages in MRO supply chain.
“The aerospace and aviation industries have been fighting unprecedented supply chain challenges in recent years, and one of the biggest problems has been the shortage of titanium… To understand the titanium shortage, it is essential to recognize Ukraine’s historical significance as one of the largest producers of titanium in the world…”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/the-critical-challenge-of-titanium-shortages-in-mro-supply-chains
“Oil Shocks and Silicon Shortages—the High Cost of Geopolitics…
“What to do in the face of rising geopolitical tensions? A return to the go-go years of politics-free globalization is not a possibility…. The big picture… is that the return of geopolitics adds a significant risk to the global outlook. And the details on the height of fence and size of yard required to contain that risk remain to be determined.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-shocks-and-silicon-shortages-the-high-cost-of-geopolitics-1.1996664
“Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned of the risks posed by “fragmentation” to the world economy, and called for greater co-operation on setting international regulatory standards.
“During a speech at the Financial System Conference in Dublin today (8 November), Bailey said the world economy is experiencing dissolution, which is “at risk of further such pressure”.”
“Fed’s Cook says geopolitical tensions could change US economic outlook.
“A rise in geopolitical tensions across the world could aggravate already subdued growth in Europe and China and the spillover may alter the path of the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-cook-we-must-remain-vigilant-potential-shocks-2023-11-08/
“The US Treasury’s auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday went about as bad as it could, indicating investor reluctance to own long-dated government securities.
“At the auction of government debt that matures in 30 years, investors were awarded 4.769% in yield, 0.051 percentage point higher than the yield in pre-auction trading. The difference between the two yields… indicated a weak auction where the U.S. government had to entice investors with a premium over the market to buy their debt.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-auction-bond-yields-stock-market-db08c04b
“The US Banking System Is Still Vulnerable, NY Fed Blog Says.
“While the US banking sector is stable, growing vulnerabilities leave at least some institutions under a near-term threat of funding pressure and capital shortfalls, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff.”
“UBS resumes selling the bonds at the heart of Credit Suisse controversy…
“The wipeout of $17 billion of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, as part of the rescue deal brokered by Swiss authorities in March, caused uproar among bondholders and continues to saddle the Swiss government and regulator with legal challenges. AT1 bonds are considered a relatively risky form of junior debt…”
“Central bankers adamant rates will remain high, as markets bet on cuts…
““Bond markets are prone to price in rate cuts as soon as you get to peak rates and there’s starting to be a degree of confidence in markets that we are there,” said Michael Matthews, co-head of fixed interest at Invesco. “But what central banks don’t want is markets taking away their tightening.””
https://www.ft.com/content/1c0def52-daa1-4152-9d7a-3361793e3601
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Can you smell that? It’s humans becoming toast. We literally destroy ourselves with no shame at this point. Your website here is priceless..
I agree on both points. Along those lines:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2023/11/10/265-explore-and-explain/
Good comment:
“el mar on November 10, 2023 at 11:11 am said:
Thank you! This is a very good article that shows the connections between our predicament.
Due to the path dependencies and the many feedback loops, our BAU system can only continue to grow or collapse.
It can’t be brought down in stages. It will collapse like a wooden house gnawed by termites when the everything bubble bursts. It will burst!
It is praiseworthy that Mr. Morgan is trying to spread hope and optimism.
But there is no solution. We are living through a one-off event. Like a table fireworks display.
Because there are only two states for our civilizational cycle. On or off.
“Seneca Cliff” is a good description. When the deflationary depression sets in globally due to energy scarcity, a rapid chain reaction on the highest wave levels will lead downwards, back to a subsistence economy.
Then there will only be room for very few people and industrial civilization will be over.”
Thank you, Kali. I would agree with El Mar.
I find it useful to think in terms of Nate Hagens’ global economic superorganism imagery – and an organism is basically either alive or it is dead. In a human-being skin, tendons, heart valves and corneas are still alive 24 hours after brain death but…
An organism can survive losing a non-essential limb or a major illness if it is in good health but our organism is bloated, rapidly poisoning itself and starved of sufficient nutrition in the form of affordable energy flows. It is nearing the end of its natural span and vulnerable to shocks.
You could almost liken the current rash of protectionism, export bans, sanctions etc to an auto-immune response when the confused body starts attacking cells that were actually healthy and working to its benefit.
Thank you, Regan. These are certainly times of great confusion.
Yes we are…the Bolivian miners illustrate our situation…these so called protected areas are only on paper …never mind gold is essentially useless metal for survival..but in the child mind it is valuable.
We are wiling to utterly destroy a pristine habitat with diversity to dig up and poison the Earth to sell it and put in away.
Silly people…they have true wealth and the Gods are laughing
Activist Chico Mendes attempted to wake up people and was murder by the cattle interests in Brazil.
The onslaught seems to be unstoppable
Re gold, I spotted an article this morning about Scotland’s only mine being in trouble:
“Scotland’s only gold mining company is close to going into administration, according to its main creditor.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-67359137
The so-called energy transition via green technologies has been ongoing since the turn of the century; that’s more than a generation of “transitioning”. But the data indicates not a transition, but an inexorable rise in energy use, -paralleled exactly with the rise in CO2 emissions (along with the alarming leakage of methane every one of the Petro States is causing) need only look at the numbers: each year they brag about the additional green energy that has come online, yet every year the overall use of energy rises at a faster clip than the percentage derived from the green machines.
That is not a transition, it’s adding yet one more energy source to fossil-fuel-derived sources, all why ignoring that every green energy source requires increased burning of fossil fuels to implement it. This dynamic will be completely ignored @ the upcoming COPout conference.
Rob, Prof Tim Garrett summarises that dynamic:
“Renewable energy creates economic value.
Economic value is sustained by consuming energy.
Consuming energy destroys the environment by transforming raw materials.
Renewables destroy the environment.”
https://twitter.com/nephologue/status/1707192890416640484
Hello Pan,
Interesting article on Titanium. So everything seems to be somehow related after all…. 🙂 I did a quick study of ‘titanium’ depletion afterwards just for the heck of it.
Remains interesting that my generation ‘the boomers’ have been able to really boom ‘everything’ in a short period of time thanks to the huge energy discoveries stored under our cradle….let’s say from 1950 onwards
What is even more fascinating is the total ‘thoughtlessness and frivolity we display in the illusion that everything will just go on…..’clock curves’ or ‘Seneca falls’ oh what the hell. What that slide will be like…we’ll see, It was a great time either way. Just got lucky
A matter of a few decades difference, not worth speculating much about in all sorts of gloomy reflections….. but it keeps us off the streets 🙂
http://roperld.com/science/minerals/Titanium.htm
“It was a great time either way.”
From a cosmic perspective, modern civilisation is an incredibly brief supernova of light, heat, noise and material complexification powered by stores of ancient sunlight. And on top of that you have the remarkable richness of human experience and creativity – Shakespeare, Mozart, Da Vinci (plus some rather less high brow forms of entertainment if you are like me 😆)… It’s a trip and I guess a privilege to be part of.
The downside is that much suffering is built into the equation for us and the natural world. Hopefully the planet can restore homeostasis and new lifeforms and ecosystems will flourish in time. Who know? Perhaps our upheaval of the biosphere will be the catalyst for that.
Life is suffering. I hope that no living thing survives. Living things can not win at the game of life. They can not even break even. The suffering always exceeds the pleasures because though the pleasure of life for us humans may be many they are meerly pleasant. That is why they are called pleasures. But the sufferings of life are also many, And, they an be horrific. That is why they are called torture. And what pleasures do lower life forms benifit from compared with their trials and tribulations.
Humanity can not win humanity can not even break even. And, you can not even get out of the game. Because most lower life forms have no idea how. We humans know that we could committ suicide. But most of us have families that we have to consider. So, it is not easy to take the easy way out.
With the de dollarization and war in Israel is not going to help the us. It’s uncertain if we can pay just the interest on the national debt. So if credit markets seize due to non payment yeah things are not looking good in the us. It’s just a matter of time before thongs go to shit!
The US debt situation is getting very interesting, Heather. US financial credibility is a cornerstone for the global economy and it is looking increasingly shaky.
From second link – “needed to channel trillions of dollars”
Print Baby Print!
Not enough money to pay off the global debt? Print more Baby,Print more!
Fools are known by the amount of currency they print. I prefer virtual currency,it’s so much less cumbersome. The stupidity of this species keeps me entertained.
So what happens when it finally sinks it that oil production peaked in 2018?
Mike, my apologies – your comment was stuck in moderation. This happens to all first time commenters, so you weren’t being singled out!
Thank you. I’ve been reading here for a long time but I don’t comment.
War: a Mad, Mad, Mad Max World.