“Human fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold twice as quickly as previously thought, a new report says.
“Researchers say the 1.5C limit could be continually breached by 2029, rather than the mid 2030s. They say record emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67242386
“Climate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say. Having good chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C is gone…
“Prof Joeri Rogelj, at Imperial College London, UK, and one the study’s authors, said: “The budget is so small, and the urgency of meaningful action for limiting warming is so high, [that] the message from [the carbon budget] is dire.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/30/climate-crisis-carbon-emissions-budget
“Ocean heat content up 6X since the 1980s! From the 1960s-1980s the oceans stored ~75 Zettajoules of heat per month. Now it’s 450.
“That’s because 90% of the excess heat from human-caused climate change, due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, is retained by the oceans.”
https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1719163543340147056
“We are in uncharted territory! The Northern Hemisphere is reaching an October temperature increase of almost +0.6°C compared to 2015, the last strong (starting) El Niño year.
“Let’s see what the other datasets show, but this too indicates increased rate of warming.”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1718934672640553448
“September was another month of record-breaking warmth in the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean…
“Data available from NOAA ERSSTv5 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html).”
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1718444085332115632
“Scotland’s October the wettest since records began…
“Meteorologists have had to rewrite 200-year-old record books after biblical amounts of rain pummelled the east coast on three different occasions this October. Heavy rainfall events took place on October 6 and 7 and 8, followed by “unprecedented” downpours from October 18 to 21 during the lethal Storm Babet.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotlands-october-the-wettest-since-records-began-g788t6wcg
“Reports of Northern Ireland flooding ahead of Storm Ciarán with weather warnings issued…
“Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna said “We’ve had various warnings in force across the UK over the last few days and there are plenty more being issued for the next couple of days. “The main focus in the next day or two is towards the east of Scotland and north-east England where there is a yellow rain warning until 3am.”
“More than 4,000 of England’s vital flood defences are so damaged they are almost useless, including hundreds in areas battered by Storm Babet.
“Nearly 800 critical assets – defined as those where there is a high risk to life and property – were in a “poor” or “very poor” condition in the 10 English counties worst affected by last week’s historic downpours.”
“Tornado leaves trail of destruction in West Sussex town.
“A roof was ripped off a house and cars and other properties were damaged as a tornado hit a West Sussex town on Saturday night. The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (Torro) told the BBC a “definite tornado” hit Littlehampton after a site investigation on Sunday.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-67254819
“Bridge collapses as more extreme weather batters Italy.
“A bridge over the River Taro near Parma partially collapsed on Monday as Italy was hit by the latest in a series of waves of extreme weather. Part of the structure in the town of Terenzo caved in as the river swelled due to the torrential rain that is hitting many parts of northern and central Italy.”
“The warmest October since the beginning of Measurements [Bosnia-Herzegovina]…
“…in addition to the lack of precipitation, October 2023 will also be the warmest October in Bosnia and Herzegovina since official measurements began. In the first week of November, it will remain above average warm, but with unstable weather with rain and showers.”
https://sarajevotimes.com/the-warmest-october-since-the-beginning-of-measurements/
“Incredible warmth in Eastern Europe/Caucasus with up to 29.6C [85.3F] in Russia, where some stations are >5C above any temperature recorded that late
“29/30C in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia (even above 600m asl),28C/29C in Bulgaria, Albania and North Macedonia. Many tropical nights too.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1718310911012688254
“Europe’s firefighters call for reinforcements as wildfires worsen.
“As Europe’s firefighters get back to normal duties after another devastating wildfire season, union leaders say investment in extra staff and equipment is urgently needed in hard-hit Mediterranean countries. Firefighting unions say the rising workload posed by massive summer wildfires is taking a heavy toll on staff…”
“Exceptional warmth in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe:
“39C [102.2F] in Algeria, 37C Tunisia and Libya, 36C Israel, 34.7C in Turkey, 34.1C Cyprus,33.1C Italy and widespread 25/29C in the Balkans and Caucasus. Many November records will fall in Eastern Europe and in North Africa.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1719039650075996269
“Record heat is sweeping millions of square km in Africa from North to Central Africa.
“GHANA tied its October national record with 39.5 [103.1F]; TOGO 38.6 Dapaon; CONGO 36.5 Gamboma, 36 Makoua… CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLIC 37 Bangui… Heat will further increase and beat hundreds of records in November.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1719086537307045927
“Malawi battles outbreak of scabies that health experts link to climate crisis.
“Malawi has seen a resurgence of the infectious skin disease scabies in an outbreak that is being linked to the climate crisis. Just months after a cholera outbreak killed more than 1,800 people and affected a total of 58,982 people in August, the country has seen the return of the disease…”
“A Saudi man was able to save a family trapped in their car by flooding resulting from heavy rain.
“An online video showed the man using a bulldozer in the successful rescue that was reportedly carried out in Al Makhwah governorate in Al Baha in south-western Saudi Arabia.”
“Massive Protests In Assam [India] After Landslide Hits Mega Power Project.
“Massive protests have erupted in Assam after a massive landslide hit an under-construction dam in Arunachal Pradesh on Friday, affecting a 2,000 megawatt (MW) hydroelectric project and reducing water flow in Assam’s Subansiri river. “We have already seen the adverse effect of dams in Sikkim, how it breached and so many people died…””
“‘Stop the madness’: UN chief warns Nepal’s mountains have lost one-third of their ice…
“Nepal’s snow-capped mountains have lost close to one-third of their ice in over 30 years due to global warming, the UN Secretary-General warned today. António Guterres delivered his message during a visit to the area near Mount Everest, the world’s highest peak.”
“China snaps up Australian, French wheat as crop damage spurs buying spree.
“China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year, trading sources say, with rain damage to its crop and worries over dry weather in exporting nations fuelling Beijing’s appetite to buy while prices are low.”
“Totally insane warmth today in North Korea:
“Temperature rose to 26.6C [79.9F] in the coastal city of Wonsan, this heat is absolutely unprecedented in North Korea: temperatures never rose above 25.2C so late. November national record might fall on 1-3 November.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1718953320180539485
“October hottest day on record in the Myanmar town of He Ho (Shan State, 1176m asl) with 32.0C [89.6F] yesterday.
“So far this month 170 countries/territories (most of the world) broke at least 1 monthly heat record (highest Tmax or Highest Tmin), while only 2 beat monthly record lows.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1718251622441107753
“39.4°C [102.9F] recorded today in Jatiwangi on Java Island, Indonesia [39.3°C yesterday].
“This is 0.1°C from the all-time national record set in October 2015 (Semarang) and November 2006 (Jatiwangi). Is the first [reliable] 40°C in Indonesian history coming soon?”
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1718664821523268026
“Firefighters are battling dangerous and unpredictable bushfire conditions in Queensland, with hundreds of people forced to flee their homes while many others bracing for an extreme threat in the coming hours and days.
“Crews across the state’s wider south-western region are on high alert for conditions to change with climbing temperatures and westerly wind changes expected in the coming hours.”
“Water wars ramp up ahead of hot summer for Murray-Darling Basin.
“Water Minister Tanya Plibersek is on a collision course with farmers after a major report by the Productivity Commission endorsed her controversial push to revitalise the beleaguered $13 billion Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which is the target of a new campaign by the national agricultural lobby.”
“It may be the final day of the month but New Plymouth Airport [New Zealand] has just set a new hottest October temperature [22.8C / 73F].
“They’ve had a month of below average rainfall with temperatures hovering around normal values except for today when it broke the 20°C mark and went a step further!”
https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1719141586259595595
“New October heat records for Lima, Peru…
“30.0°C [86F] is officially the highest temperature yesterday, recorded at the historic Von Humboldt meteorological station, La Molina (UNALM). It was up to 7.4° above normal, considering 22.6°C as the average for Oct.”
https://twitter.com/RonaldMndz/status/1718998362823827862
“Heavy Rains Force the Displacement of Some 7,000 Brazilians.
“The state of Parana has been hit by severe weather events attributed to a combination of various factors, including the influence of El Niño… “The heavy rains brought a situation of calamity in several cities of Parana this month. Thousands of families were affected,” Matheus Laiola, the Civil Police delegate, said…”
“Jaguar haven in Brazil’s Pantanal burns amid ‘new normal’ of wildfires.
“After a month of roaring fires, a downpour of rain put out the worst of the flames, but experts are warning of further fire risks from underground embers and hot days ahead. The fires spell disaster for the Pantanal’s ecosystems, which are struggling to recover from an onslaught of unpredictable and increasingly frequent fires that experts associate with climate change.”
“Endless record heat in the Caribbean.
“Tobago today had a MIN temp of 27.9C [82.2F] after yesterday max of 34.0C and it’s heading to break the record for November, after recording the highest TMIN in history of Trinidad and Tobago with 29.1C early this month.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1718672707422757293
“Central America braces for Tropical Storm Pilar.
“El Salvador declared a state of emergency Sunday, as heavy rains began lashing the coast, allowing for the activation of emergency services and funding for disaster response. Authorities reported a 24-year-old man and a 57-year-old woman had died after being swept away…”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/central-america-braces-tropical-storm-003855732.html
“[Hurricane] Otis very amazing! A weather station in Acapulco where Hurricane Otis made landfall recorded a gust of 329.76km/h [205mph]!
“This is the second time in a month that wind speeds above 320km/h have occurred in the world!”
https://twitter.com/yangyubin1998/status/1719215570112135604
“Acapulco: nearly 100 dead and missing after Hurricane Otis, officials say…
“Evelyn Salgado, governor of Acapulco’s home state of Guerrero, said on Monday that 45 people were confirmed dead and 47 others were missing, citing figures from state prosecutors. Salgado had said on Sunday morning the death toll stood at 43.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/acapulco-mexico-hurricane-otis-death-toll-damage
“Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof.
“A prolonged drought is shrinking livestock herds and driving beef prices to record highs in the US, even as consumption is growing stronger. These days, Mary Skinner is finding it harder to get her daily meat intake.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/drought-shrinking-herds-push-us-013755426.html
“US Halloween pumpkin crop hit by extreme weather and lack of water…
“For some pumpkin growers in states such as Texas, New Mexico and Colorado, this year’s pumpkin crop was a reminder of the water challenges hitting agriculture across the south-west and west as human-caused climate change exacerbates drought and heat extremes.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/30/halloween-pumpkins-extreme-weather
“Five days of 80-degree weather so late in year is very rare in D.C…
“Each of the past five days has seen a high of at least 78 degrees, averaging about 80 — a first for late October and the second-warmest stretch on record so late in the season. With a predicted high near 80 again Monday afternoon, the historic stretch could extend to a sixth day.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/10/30/record-warm-october-weather-dc/
“Record-breaking cold spell forecast for parts of the U.S. on Halloween…
“The Plains, Midwest and parts of the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians will see the coldest temperatures on Halloween itself, Knabb said. The forecast shows temperatures in those areas will be 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit below average for the time of year.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cold-halloween-forecast-us-trick-or-treat/
“Amid record melting, countries fail again to protect Antarctic waters…
“For the seventh year in a row, the international community has declined to establish new marine protected areas (MPAs) around Antarctica. Scientists, conservationists and some governments have been pushing for greater protections, concerned that the melting of ice in Antarctica has reached alarming levels, jeopardizing the existence of several key animal species in the region.”
“Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our forecasting models…
“[They] have fundamental limitations and carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with rare or extreme weather. This uncertainty arises from various factors including the fundamentally chaotic nature of the system… With established weather patterns being altered, it is becoming even more challenging.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
‘Another fine mess we’ve gotten ourselves into.’
Another Oliver Hardy quote that hits the mark in this era of super specialised experts in their silos:
“No-one is dumber than a dumb man who thinks he’s smart.”
“These days, Mary Skinner is finding it harder to get her DAILY meat intake.”
Maybe the daily meat intake is part of the problem. Oh well. Humans gonna human. I’ve accepted our fate.
“Humans gonna human.”
Yes, we are – the first species to self-domesticate; now lethally trapped in its own gilded cage. Mary may have more to worry about than her daily meat intake in the not too distant future.
‘Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios… “
C’est-à-dire,
NOAA’s Arc hits a snag: “I smell Ararat”.
Your mischievous puns made me think of the old Jackson Browne song, “Before the Deluge”, Rob:
Some of them were angry
At the way the earth was abused
By the men who learned how to forge her beauty into power
And they struggled to protect her from them
Only to be confused
By the magnitude of her fury in the final hour
And when the sand was gone and the time arrived
In the naked dawn only a few survived
And in attempts to understand a thing so simple and so huge
Believed that they were meant to live after the deluge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU
You’re dating yourself, as they used to say. (Well no one else’ ll go out with me). As for the deluge, current events demonstrate the similarities between Mein Kampf and Noah’s Ark: as it is not the infamous wrath of Yahweh that tale demonstrated, but the deity’s cold-hearted. calculated plan in which, Holocaust-like, he exterminated every living soul, regardless of how exemplary their lives may have been. Mass murder for Lebensraum is not an original Germanic concept, it’s straight out of the Bible; a clean slate (for an Israeli State?) Ergo, aren’t we all Sons of Noah?
There’s a deluge of biblical language & references lately. I was expecting & expect to hear more before my time is up.
“The eschatological fervor of the Palestine crisis is reaching a deafening peak. Officials worldwide are dropping their masks, and inadvertently revealing the Biblical strain of the conflict.
At every turn, political figures now soak their proclamations in Biblical reference and allegory. The foremost of which was Netanyahu, who has now invoked an assortment of Biblical prophecies as dogwhistles to stir his people into an eschatological frenzy.
Here he not only invokes the prophecy of Isaiah, but frames the conflict as that of “light” versus “darkness” and good versus evil, painting the Palestinians as the Children of Darkness to be vanquished by the Chosen Ones: “
‘
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/world-plummets-into-eschatological?
Hello Pan
Well we are in for a stormy week with a succession of as far as I can see ‘extreme storms’ The long-term forecast conjures up three in a row out of the top hat like magician’s rabbits. That won’t be easy is my guess. A decision will be made tomorrow on whether to evacuate tourist islands off Brittany. Then we are talking about tens of thousands of people.
It is ‘holiday’ here so everyone has travelled to ‘get some fresh air’ on the coast…. It is only to be hoped that we will not be punished for our levity. The waves there can run up to 15 metres high is the expectation. That’s no child’s play.
In the mountains here, we won’t be bothered by all that natural violence….
I understood a few years ago that maintenance of flood defences and dykes in the UK leaves a lot to be desired. Then whole areas were under water for months I remember. But yes no money and ‘we just hope for the best’ that is by far the cheapest….
https://www.lepoint.fr/video/tempete-ciaran-et-si-noirmoutier-etait-evacuee-31-10-2023-2541460_738.php
Zip, the Channel Islands are going to get a hammering from Ciaran, too, with islanders advised to shelter at home, schools and airport closed etc.
Our weather is usually pretty similar to that in Northern Ireland, which I can see from my window on a clear day, but, whilst they were flooded out last night, we haven’t had a drop of rain here. Odd. That will change tomorrow but even then the winds will be fairly standard for the time of year.
Forgive me if I am not around much this evening – I must help my youngest into his TERRIFYING costume and take him out trick or treating. It is called “‘guising” up here btw:
“Scottish children traditionally donned costumes and pretended to be malicious spirits as they went ‘guising’ around the local streets. It was believed that, by disguising themselves, they would blend in with any wandering spirits and remain safe from harm.”
https://www.nts.org.uk/stories/6-scottish-halloween-traditions#:~:text=Guising,and%20remain%20safe%20from%20harm.
The only problem with Scotland is understanding the accent but others have difficulty with my U.S. southern drawl,y’all.
This is horrible. No other country in history has killed children in military conflicts? How about America in Vietnam & the shock & awe Republican lie in Iraq? Without being too offensive, war mongering *!+&%?#$”~.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/children-gaza-israel
I cant read this anymore with out wanting a barf bag next to me every time i see ipcc numbers being reported at nauseam. But okay trust us because science and go green right! Meanwhile mother nature destroys anything created by man in one day. As the floods gets worse and the droughts intensify and the arctic disappear.
Anyone who has read my comments can tell I’m a determinist, but I still struggle with my wiring (anger blame).
The great American polymath, Robert Salposky just released a new book where he dispels the myth of free will – for real doomer friends. I was looking for related links to share & I got a laugh from a Jerry Coyne comment about the subject of free will at his blog “Why Evolution Is True”
“..free will and determinism are subjects that evoke strong reactions from people—especially those who believe in libertarian (“I could have chosen otherwise”) free will. I’ve had many discussions about the topic, some of them quite heated, and you may remember that one of my old friends threw me out of his house on Cape Cod because I espoused determinism (it wasn’t even an argument; the guy just couldn’t stand the idea of determinism). A friendship ended over a metaphysical argument!
I’ve also described another scenario after I gave a talk called “You Don’t Have Free Will”. A very large jazz musician accosted me afterwards and asked me if I thought that the extemporaneous solos he played were actually determined in advance. When I said “yes,” he got really mad and I was afraid he was going to hit me. Fortunately, Richard Dawkins stepped in and, with his British politesse, defused the situation. These two incidents show you the strong feelings evoked by someone who espouses determinism.”
https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2023/10/22/robert-sapolsky-gets-interviewed-about-his-new-book-on-free-will-and-determinism/
~ ~ ~ ~
For those of you who torrent, here is a link to an audio book version & description of Sapolsky’s new book ‘Determined: A Science of Life without Free Will’
“One of our great behavioral scientists, the bestselling author of Behave, plumbs the depths of the science and philosophy of decision-making to mount a devastating case against free will, an argument with profound consequences.
Robert Sapolsky’s Behave, his now classic account of why humans do good and why they do bad, pointed toward an unsettling conclusion: we may not grasp the precise marriage of nature and nurture that creates the physics and chemistry at base of human behavior, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Now, in Determined, Sapolsky takes his argument all the way, mounting a brilliant (and in his inimitable way, delightful) full-frontal assault on the pleasant fantasy that there’s some separate self telling our biology what to do.
Determined offers a marvelous synthesis of what we know about how consciousness works–the tight weave between reason and emotion, and between stimulus and response, in the moment and over a life. One by one, Sapolsky tackles all the major arguments for free will and takes them out, cutting a path through the thickets of chaos and complexity science and quantum physics, as well as touching ground on some of the wilder shores of philosophy. He shows us that the history of medicine is in no small part the history of learning that fewer and fewer things are somebody’s “fault”; for example, for centuries we thought seizures were a sign of demonic possession. Yet as he acknowledges, it’s very hard, and at times impossible, to uncouple from our zeal to judge others, and to judge ourselves. Sapolsky applies the new understanding of life beyond free will to some of our most essential questions around punishment, morality, and living well together. By the end, Sapolsky argues that while living our daily lives recognizing that we have no free will is going to be monumentally difficult, doing so is not going to result in anarchy, pointlessness and existential malaise. Instead, it will make for a much more humane world.”
https://audiobookbay.is/abss/determined-a-science-of-life-without-free-will-robert-m-sapolsky/
If the humans had free will, I’m pretty sure they would use it to choose option #2 = Not max pain & suffering, huge die-back & possible human extinction.
If the humans chose to change & save themselves, I’ll be the first to stand up & say, “I was wrong that humans are slaves to evolution & thermodynamics. They do in fact have free will.” Mea culpa, my bad.
A couple interview discussions.
Robert Sapolsky: The Illusion of Free Will
The Origins Podcast
“A message from Lawrence:
I have been a fan of Robert Sapolsky’s for a long time. He is a creative force, with wide ranging knowledge, from primatology to neuroscience, and he is also a wonderful expositor of science. His previous book, Behave, was a wide ranging exploration of human behavior, at its best and worst. I have been wanting to do a podcast with him for some time, and the launch of his new book, Determined, gave us the opportunity. I got an advanced copy and we recorded this a few weeks ago, so that this podcast could post on the book’s publication date.
Had it been anyone else, I admit I wouldn’t have bothered to go through the book. I have long felt the issue of free will is overplayed. The laws of physics are deterministic, and since biology and chemistry are based on physics, I have never doubted that free will is an illusion, but have also felt that for all intents and purposes the world we live in is indistinguishable from a world with free will, so we should take responsibility for our actions.
As is often the case when reading Robert’s works, my view has now become more nuanced. His book masterfully discusses the neurobiology behind the illusion of free will, what actually interests me the most, and he effectively demolished claims of numerous philosophers, including Dan Dennett and others, that some magic occurs between the level of neurons and the level of the full brain that allows for some uncaused behavior.
Along the way, we are taken on a masterful and fun ride through modern neurobiology. And at the end, Sapolsky confronts the more serious question of crime and punishment in a world where free will is an illusion, and convincingly argues that in a world where bad luck early on gets multiplied throughout ones life, society can far more effectively and honestly deal with crime by abolishing the notion of punishment, replacing it with behaviorally more effective methods.
In our podcast, as we always do, we discussed Sapolsky’s origins. What got him interested in science. How did his 30 years working with primates impact on his view of humans, and more. I found it a fascinating discussion, and I hope you will too.”
https://youtu.be/mSWJmzMoTyY
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Robert Sapolsky: “The Brain, Determinism, and Cultural Implications” | The Great Simplification #88 — Nate Hagens
“190,744 views Sep 13, 2023 The Great Simplification – with Nate Hagens
On this episode, neuroscientist and author Robert Sapolsky joins Nate to discuss the structure of the human brain and its implication on behavior and our ability to change. Dr. Sapolsky also unpacks how the innate quality of a biological organism shaped by evolution and the surrounding environment – meaning all animals, including humans – leads him to believe that there is no such thing as free will, at least how we think about it today. How do our past and present hormone levels, hunger, stress, and more affect the way we make decisions? What implications does this have in a future headed towards lower energy and resource availability? How can our species manage the mismatch of our evolutionary biology with our modern day challenges – and navigate through a ‘determined’ future?”
https://youtu.be/xhobcj2K9v4
I used to provide a link to free ebook versions, but that site went under & I am not aware of a new source like that. They had everything – I’ve forgotten the name.
FamousDrScanlon, just a heads up that comments with more than one link automatically get stuck in WordPress’s sometimes weirdly overbearing moderation.