“Human fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold twice as quickly as previously thought, a new report says.
“Researchers say the 1.5C limit could be continually breached by 2029, rather than the mid 2030s. They say record emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor.”
“Climate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say. Having good chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C is gone…
“Prof Joeri Rogelj, at Imperial College London, UK, and one the study’s authors, said: “The budget is so small, and the urgency of meaningful action for limiting warming is so high, [that] the message from [the carbon budget] is dire.”
“Ocean heat content up 6X since the 1980s! From the 1960s-1980s the oceans stored ~75 Zettajoules of heat per month. Now it’s 450.
“That’s because 90% of the excess heat from human-caused climate change, due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, is retained by the oceans.”
“We are in uncharted territory! The Northern Hemisphere is reaching an October temperature increase of almost +0.6°C compared to 2015, the last strong (starting) El Niño year.
“Let’s see what the other datasets show, but this too indicates increased rate of warming.”
“September was another month of record-breaking warmth in the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean…
“Data available from NOAA ERSSTv5 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html).”
“Scotland’s October the wettest since records began…
“Meteorologists have had to rewrite 200-year-old record books after biblical amounts of rain pummelled the east coast on three different occasions this October. Heavy rainfall events took place on October 6 and 7 and 8, followed by “unprecedented” downpours from October 18 to 21 during the lethal Storm Babet.”
“Reports of Northern Ireland flooding ahead of Storm Ciarán with weather warnings issued…
“Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna said “We’ve had various warnings in force across the UK over the last few days and there are plenty more being issued for the next couple of days. “The main focus in the next day or two is towards the east of Scotland and north-east England where there is a yellow rain warning until 3am.”
“More than 4,000 of England’s vital flood defences are so damaged they are almost useless, including hundreds in areas battered by Storm Babet.
“Nearly 800 critical assets – defined as those where there is a high risk to life and property – were in a “poor” or “very poor” condition in the 10 English counties worst affected by last week’s historic downpours.”
“Tornado leaves trail of destruction in West Sussex town.
“A roof was ripped off a house and cars and other properties were damaged as a tornado hit a West Sussex town on Saturday night. The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (Torro) told the BBC a “definite tornado” hit Littlehampton after a site investigation on Sunday.”
“Bridge collapses as more extreme weather batters Italy.
“A bridge over the River Taro near Parma partially collapsed on Monday as Italy was hit by the latest in a series of waves of extreme weather. Part of the structure in the town of Terenzo caved in as the river swelled due to the torrential rain that is hitting many parts of northern and central Italy.”
“The warmest October since the beginning of Measurements [Bosnia-Herzegovina]…
“…in addition to the lack of precipitation, October 2023 will also be the warmest October in Bosnia and Herzegovina since official measurements began. In the first week of November, it will remain above average warm, but with unstable weather with rain and showers.”
“Incredible warmth in Eastern Europe/Caucasus with up to 29.6C [85.3F] in Russia, where some stations are >5C above any temperature recorded that late
“29/30C in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia (even above 600m asl),28C/29C in Bulgaria, Albania and North Macedonia. Many tropical nights too.”
“Europe’s firefighters call for reinforcements as wildfires worsen.
“As Europe’s firefighters get back to normal duties after another devastating wildfire season, union leaders say investment in extra staff and equipment is urgently needed in hard-hit Mediterranean countries. Firefighting unions say the rising workload posed by massive summer wildfires is taking a heavy toll on staff…”
“Exceptional warmth in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe:
“39C [102.2F] in Algeria, 37C Tunisia and Libya, 36C Israel, 34.7C in Turkey, 34.1C Cyprus,33.1C Italy and widespread 25/29C in the Balkans and Caucasus. Many November records will fall in Eastern Europe and in North Africa.”
“Record heat is sweeping millions of square km in Africa from North to Central Africa.
“GHANA tied its October national record with 39.5 [103.1F]; TOGO 38.6 Dapaon; CONGO 36.5 Gamboma, 36 Makoua… CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLIC 37 Bangui… Heat will further increase and beat hundreds of records in November.”
“Malawi battles outbreak of scabies that health experts link to climate crisis.
“Malawi has seen a resurgence of the infectious skin disease scabies in an outbreak that is being linked to the climate crisis. Just months after a cholera outbreak killed more than 1,800 people and affected a total of 58,982 people in August, the country has seen the return of the disease…”
“A Saudi man was able to save a family trapped in their car by flooding resulting from heavy rain.
“An online video showed the man using a bulldozer in the successful rescue that was reportedly carried out in Al Makhwah governorate in Al Baha in south-western Saudi Arabia.”
“Massive Protests In Assam [India] After Landslide Hits Mega Power Project.
“Massive protests have erupted in Assam after a massive landslide hit an under-construction dam in Arunachal Pradesh on Friday, affecting a 2,000 megawatt (MW) hydroelectric project and reducing water flow in Assam’s Subansiri river. “We have already seen the adverse effect of dams in Sikkim, how it breached and so many people died…””
“‘Stop the madness’: UN chief warns Nepal’s mountains have lost one-third of their ice…
“Nepal’s snow-capped mountains have lost close to one-third of their ice in over 30 years due to global warming, the UN Secretary-General warned today. António Guterres delivered his message during a visit to the area near Mount Everest, the world’s highest peak.”
“China snaps up Australian, French wheat as crop damage spurs buying spree.
“China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year, trading sources say, with rain damage to its crop and worries over dry weather in exporting nations fuelling Beijing’s appetite to buy while prices are low.”
“Totally insane warmth today in North Korea:
“Temperature rose to 26.6C [79.9F] in the coastal city of Wonsan, this heat is absolutely unprecedented in North Korea: temperatures never rose above 25.2C so late. November national record might fall on 1-3 November.”
“October hottest day on record in the Myanmar town of He Ho (Shan State, 1176m asl) with 32.0C [89.6F] yesterday.
“So far this month 170 countries/territories (most of the world) broke at least 1 monthly heat record (highest Tmax or Highest Tmin), while only 2 beat monthly record lows.”
“39.4°C [102.9F] recorded today in Jatiwangi on Java Island, Indonesia [39.3°C yesterday].
“This is 0.1°C from the all-time national record set in October 2015 (Semarang) and November 2006 (Jatiwangi). Is the first [reliable] 40°C in Indonesian history coming soon?”
“Firefighters are battling dangerous and unpredictable bushfire conditions in Queensland, with hundreds of people forced to flee their homes while many others bracing for an extreme threat in the coming hours and days.
“Crews across the state’s wider south-western region are on high alert for conditions to change with climbing temperatures and westerly wind changes expected in the coming hours.”
“Water wars ramp up ahead of hot summer for Murray-Darling Basin.
“Water Minister Tanya Plibersek is on a collision course with farmers after a major report by the Productivity Commission endorsed her controversial push to revitalise the beleaguered $13 billion Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which is the target of a new campaign by the national agricultural lobby.”
“It may be the final day of the month but New Plymouth Airport [New Zealand] has just set a new hottest October temperature [22.8C / 73F].
“They’ve had a month of below average rainfall with temperatures hovering around normal values except for today when it broke the 20°C mark and went a step further!”
“New October heat records for Lima, Peru…
“30.0°C [86F] is officially the highest temperature yesterday, recorded at the historic Von Humboldt meteorological station, La Molina (UNALM). It was up to 7.4° above normal, considering 22.6°C as the average for Oct.”
“Heavy Rains Force the Displacement of Some 7,000 Brazilians.
“The state of Parana has been hit by severe weather events attributed to a combination of various factors, including the influence of El Niño… “The heavy rains brought a situation of calamity in several cities of Parana this month. Thousands of families were affected,” Matheus Laiola, the Civil Police delegate, said…”
“Jaguar haven in Brazil’s Pantanal burns amid ‘new normal’ of wildfires.
“After a month of roaring fires, a downpour of rain put out the worst of the flames, but experts are warning of further fire risks from underground embers and hot days ahead. The fires spell disaster for the Pantanal’s ecosystems, which are struggling to recover from an onslaught of unpredictable and increasingly frequent fires that experts associate with climate change.”
“Endless record heat in the Caribbean.
“Tobago today had a MIN temp of 27.9C [82.2F] after yesterday max of 34.0C and it’s heading to break the record for November, after recording the highest TMIN in history of Trinidad and Tobago with 29.1C early this month.”
“Central America braces for Tropical Storm Pilar.
“El Salvador declared a state of emergency Sunday, as heavy rains began lashing the coast, allowing for the activation of emergency services and funding for disaster response. Authorities reported a 24-year-old man and a 57-year-old woman had died after being swept away…”
“[Hurricane] Otis very amazing! A weather station in Acapulco where Hurricane Otis made landfall recorded a gust of 329.76km/h [205mph]!
“This is the second time in a month that wind speeds above 320km/h have occurred in the world!”
“Acapulco: nearly 100 dead and missing after Hurricane Otis, officials say…
“Evelyn Salgado, governor of Acapulco’s home state of Guerrero, said on Monday that 45 people were confirmed dead and 47 others were missing, citing figures from state prosecutors. Salgado had said on Sunday morning the death toll stood at 43.”
“Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof.
“A prolonged drought is shrinking livestock herds and driving beef prices to record highs in the US, even as consumption is growing stronger. These days, Mary Skinner is finding it harder to get her daily meat intake.”
“US Halloween pumpkin crop hit by extreme weather and lack of water…
“For some pumpkin growers in states such as Texas, New Mexico and Colorado, this year’s pumpkin crop was a reminder of the water challenges hitting agriculture across the south-west and west as human-caused climate change exacerbates drought and heat extremes.”
“Five days of 80-degree weather so late in year is very rare in D.C…
“Each of the past five days has seen a high of at least 78 degrees, averaging about 80 — a first for late October and the second-warmest stretch on record so late in the season. With a predicted high near 80 again Monday afternoon, the historic stretch could extend to a sixth day.”
“Record-breaking cold spell forecast for parts of the U.S. on Halloween…
“The Plains, Midwest and parts of the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians will see the coldest temperatures on Halloween itself, Knabb said. The forecast shows temperatures in those areas will be 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit below average for the time of year.”
“Amid record melting, countries fail again to protect Antarctic waters…
“For the seventh year in a row, the international community has declined to establish new marine protected areas (MPAs) around Antarctica. Scientists, conservationists and some governments have been pushing for greater protections, concerned that the melting of ice in Antarctica has reached alarming levels, jeopardizing the existence of several key animal species in the region.”
“Extreme weather is outpacing even the worst-case scenarios of our forecasting models…
“[They] have fundamental limitations and carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with rare or extreme weather. This uncertainty arises from various factors including the fundamentally chaotic nature of the system… With established weather patterns being altered, it is becoming even more challenging.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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