“The World is Drowning in Debt – Again… Over the past 50 years, four tidal waves of debt have crashed down on the global economy – three of which ended in crisis… The fate of the fourth, which began in 2010, is yet to be determined. However, the evidence suggests history is already repeating itself…
“…global growth is slowing, which means countries can’t rely on expanding the economic pie to keep debts on a sustainable path… Emre Tiftik, a director at the IIF, believes countries have become addicted to debt.
““Right now most countries have a growth model that is completely based on borrowing,” he says.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/29/world-drowning-debt-global-economy-crisis-imf/
“The future we’ve been borrowing from has arrived.”
https://twitter.com/Swordfishv44183/status/1718094542304391622
“Emerging-Market Companies at Risk With $400 Billion of Debt Due…
“Cracks are deepening for vulnerable emerging-market companies as global borrowing rates surge to the highest levels since the financial crisis, halting refinancing opportunities for $400 billion worth of a debt maturities coming due in the new year.”
“Get ready for more US debt sticker shock as Wall Street sees a bigger wave of Treasuries flooding the bond market.
“…the upcoming release is getting heightened market attention. In recent weeks, investor demand for Treasurys has shown signs of weakness just as the government’s ballooning deficits are flooding the market with more debt.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ready-more-us-debt-sticker-204501804.html
“Payday lenders aim to evade federal probes as borrowers plead for help…
“Powerful financial firms that offer high-cost, short-term loans to poor Americans have blocked at least five federal investigations into their business practices since the start of last year, part of a broad and aggressive campaign by payday lenders to neuter or eliminate their chief watchdog agency in Washington.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/28/payday-lending-supreme-court-lobbying/
“Britain could be the tipping point for a ‘global reckoning’…
“…the UK… faces the highest debt interest bill in the developed world this year… Britain will spend £110bn, an astonishing 10.4pc of government revenue, on debt servicing during 2023 – the second largest item on the state balance sheet, after the NHS – due to our high share of inflation-linked gilts. The UK economy has stalled.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/29/britain-tipping-point-global-reckoning/
“Credit crunch concerns hit highest level since 2008 [UK]…
“As inflation and rising interest rates squeezed balance sheets, 33pc of profit warnings in the third quarter of 2023 cited challenges securing credit, according to new data from EY. That is the highest percentage recorded since 2008 by the Big Four accountant’s quarterly profit warnings report.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/29/credit-crunch-concerns-highest-level-since-2008/
“How Britain descended into a state of total economic despair…
“Research shows that levels of pessimism across the UK are now greater than at the height of the pandemic and during the 2008 financial crisis… “There is a feeling now that we have levelled down and this is actually who we are – that things are just a bit c–p. The basic feeling is that everything is broken.””
“Councils in England facing bankruptcy as lack of housing pushes up costs…
“England’s housing crisis will push many local authorities into bankruptcy as the increasing cost of emergency accommodation for thousands of homeless families threatens to overwhelm council budgets, leaders have warned.”
“Animal refuges in Britain are ‘full to bursting’ as owners give up pets in cash crisis…
““It’s genuinely tough to see people bring their pets into us because of the cost of living,” says cattery and kennels manager Beccy Hill. “It’s not their fault they can no longer care for a pet. And it’s upsetting for the dogs – they come in really confused.””
“EU countries tell Brussels to tighten its own belt.
“In lean times, European Union countries aren’t keen to send more money to Brussels. That’s lowered expectations for a proposed top-up of the EU’s common budget by year’s end… The two-day leaders’ summit in Brussels this week brought those divisions to the fore…”
“Trade talks collapse between EU and Australia.
“Last-chance negotiations on a trade agreement between Australia and the European Union have fallen through, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Sunday. “Unfortunately, we have not been able to make progress,” Farrell said in a video statement after informal discussions between Canberra and Brussels.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/trade-talks-between-australia-and-eu-collapse/
“The newest front in the US-China trade war? Japanese fish.
“The United States has for the first time begun buying Japanese seafood to supply its military there, a response to China’s ban on such products imposed after Tokyo released treated water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea.”
https://www.cityam.com/the-newest-front-in-the-us-china-trade-war-japanese-fish/
“Bangladesh opposition chief Alamgir arrested after clashes.
“Tens of thousands of protesters turned out over the weekend, calling for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. One police officer was killed, as well as at least one protester. There are conflicting reports of why Mr Alamgir, 75, was arrested.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67257142
“Argentina’s Massa Threatens to Cut Fuel Exports Amid Shortage.
“Argentina’s oil producers will be barred from exports unless they increase fuel supplies to address shortages in the country, Economy Minister and presidential candidate Sergio Massa said Sunday… “If the fuel supply is not resolved by midnight on Tuesday, companies will not be able to send out export ships starting on Wednesday,” Massa told reporters.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-massa-threatens-cut-fuel-174232160.html
“Panamanian protesters break into international port used by First Quantum Minerals.
“On the sixth day of protests against the recent approval of the mining concession for the Cobre Panamá copper mine, activists broke into the Punta Rincón International Port, in the northern Colón province, which is used by Minera Panamá to ship copper abroad.”
“In photos: Pro-democracy Guatemalan protesters remain defiant.
“With their country’s democracy in peril, thousands of Guatemalans have spent weeks blocking roads and marching to protest against top government officials for what they say are sham investigations into the political party of President-elect Bernardo Arévalo.”
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/26/guatemala-bernardo-arevalo-consuelo-porras-protests
“Hurricane Otis: Mexico troops tackle looting in devastated Acapulco.
“Some 17,000 soldiers and police have been deployed in the Mexican resort city of Acapulco, where there has been widespread looting since a powerful hurricane hit the region. Videos show people taking food and water from shops, while others walk away with expensive electronic items and clothes from shopping centres.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67253576
“Mob storms Dagestan airport in search of Jewish passengers from Israel.
“In the past day, local people have besieged a hotel in search of Jewish guests and stormed the airport after reports emerged that a flight from Tel Aviv was arriving in the city. Passengers were forced to take refuge in planes or hide in the airport for fear of being attacked.”
“Fishermen in the Lebanese city of Tyre are among those counting the costs of war in the Middle East. As Israel and Hezbollah clash, it is too dangerous to sail into nearby fishing grounds.
“”Already our fish were scarce. Now we have the war,” said fisherman Imad Azuzu. “If we venture a little in the sea, we do so in fear.””
“Fierce clashes in Gaza as Israeli forces expand ground offensive.
“Palestinians in Gaza reported fierce air and artillery strikes early on Monday as Israeli troops backed by tanks pressed into the enclave with a ground assault that prompted more international calls for civilians to be protected.”
“UN says civil order ‘starting to break down’ as looting food, supplies begins in Gaza.
“Aid workers warned Sunday that civil disorder is starting to break down in Gaza after thousands of people looted flour and other basic survival items from warehouses and distribution centers. Facilities looted include a Deir al-Balah warehouse where the United Nations Relief and Works Agency stores supplies from Egypt.”
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/10/29/looting-warehouses-survival/4581698584660/
“Amid ongoing war, BP and Eni among firms awarded gas exploration licenses in Israel.
“Israel announced on Sunday that 12 licenses have been awarded to six companies, including British multinational oil and gas firm BP plc and Italian energy giant Eni, to explore and discover additional offshore natural gas fields.”
“Hedge Funds Pile Into Uranium Stocks Poised for ‘Dramatic’ Gains…
“Such investments remain controversial. Germany famously wound down its nuclear energy program after 2011, as then Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to the global trauma caused by the Fukushima meltdown. That decision has since drawn criticism…”
“They went hunting for fossil fuels. What they found could help save the world…
“They ran calculations and estimated the deposit could contain between 6 million and 250 million metric tons of hydrogen. That could make it one of the largest deposits of “white hydrogen” ever discovered, Pironon said. The find has helped fuel an already feverish interest in the gas.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/29/climate/white-hydrogen-fossil-fuels-climate/index.html
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Hey Pan, I just spent several hours doing a global economic ‘deep dive’ on the interwebs.
Sheesh, its almost ‘hard work’, there are other information gems out there (besides you Pan)
but have to wade through so much sludge and muck, (like the last heavy dregs of an oil refinery) to find the ‘good stuff’.
I have a whole new appreciation for all you do Pan 🙂
I have a new economics BFF – Sean Foo, who has daily short YT podcasts, which more-or-less covered much of what you reported today! (Including bonds, LOL)
I recommend him highly 🙂
And found a new geopolitics guru pontificating some interesting insights on “the Empire”, who tends to waffle, but when he gets to the point, its a doozy..so is entertaining as well .. Garland Nixon.
I also checked through your list of related sites,
may need a cleanup Pan! A few have been dead for awhile, one or two have moved as well.
“I have a whole new appreciation for all you do Pan.” Thanks, Rain. 😆
I do totally need to review the related sites, and my “about” sections are crying out for an update. Hopefully life will calm down a bit before Christmas and I’ll have a chance to do that.
Collapse has already begun. Looking at what’s happening in Britain from shops closing up everywhere and the cost of living crisis on pets. America is not much far off. The rest of the world is a mess too.
Yes, Regan, you are correct..the US is not too far behind
There’s no future after me’: Colorado pumpkin man says drought, labor, water issues will end his family business. ‘My boys won’t farm’
Alan Mazzotti says that with not enough water, you “might as well not farm” — but even so, he sees labor as the bigger issue.
BY MELINA WALLING , BRITTANY PETERSON , AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
October 29, 2023 1:00 PM EDT
For some pumpkin growers in states like Texas, New Mexico and Colorado, this year’s pumpkin crop was a reminder of the water challenges hitting agriculture across the Southwest and West as human-caused climate change exacerbates drought and heat extremes. Some farmers lost 20% or more of their predicted yields; others, like Mazzotti, left some land bare. Labor costs and inflation are also narrowing margins, hitting farmers’ ability to profit off what they sell to garden centers and pumpkin patches
…Pumpkins can survive hot, dry weather to an extent, but this summer’s heat, which broke world records and brought temperatures well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) to agricultural fields across the country, was just too much, said Mark Carroll, a Texas A&M extension agent for Floyd County, which he calls the “pumpkin capital” of the state.
“It’s one of the worst years we’ve had in several years,” Carroll said. Not only did the hot, dry weather surpass what irrigation could make up for, but pumpkins also need cooler weather to be harvested or they’ll start to decompose during the shipping process, sometimes disintegrating before they even arrive at stores.
……But at the end of the day, “our real problem is groundwater, … the lack of deep moisture and the lack of water in the aquifer,” Ness said. That’s a problem that likely won’t go away because aquifers can take hundreds or thousands of years to refill after overuse, and climate change is reducing the very rain and snow needed to recharge them in the arid West.
…..He hires guest workers through the H-2A program, but Colorado recently instituted a law ensuring farmworkers to be paid overtime — something most states don’t require. That makes it tough to maintain competitive prices with places where laborers are paid less, and the increasing costs of irrigation and supplies stack onto that, creating what Mazzotti calls a “no-win situation.”
He’ll keep farming pumpkins for a bit longer, but “there’s no future after me,” he said. “My boys won’t farm.”
Just a matter of time…
Jeez. You know the drought is bad when it’s killing off pumpkins. I read an article recently touting them as a climate change-resistant superfood:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231026-are-halloween-pumpkins-a-future-superfood
Colorado grows acres and acres of corn to produce fuel for out-sized SUV’s and to power ATV’s for the favorite Colorado sport of driving multi-ton vehicles over unpaved terrain, because keeping to the 40 million miles of paved surfaces is just too restrictive of their “freedom”.
Were water not used on crops to provide “fun” for assholes, there’d be more than enough for pumpkins, and other FOOD crops. A coal-fired power plant was brought on-line every week of the Bush administration to process ethanol as a “renewable” fuel, as it sucked up 4 non-renewable resources: water, coal, natural gas and oil. Yet the COPout conference we’re about to witness, will hail renewable fuels as green …. Again. We keep adopting Corponational solutions designed to siphon billions of $$$ from taxpayers to pay dividends, not to decrease CO2. Until that dynamic is addressed … and it won’t be … everything hailed as green is out-and-out fraud.
Yes, Justin does amazling in gleaming the news, especially the uncovered less developed countries that are somewhat ignored by our MSN. I second Sean Foo…watch him too on a regular basis, some others too…
Saw this and thought to post
HSBC takes $500 million hit on Chinese real estate and warns of risk of ‘further deterioration’
By Michelle Toh, CNNMon October 30, 2023Hong KongCNN
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/30/business/hsbc-q3-results-earnings-report-intl-hnk/index.html
—
HSBC warned Monday that China’s property market has “potential for a further deterioration” as it reported profits that fell short of expectations, partly because of a $500 million charge to cover potential losses on commercial real estate loans.
Third quarter pre-tax profit at Europe’s biggest bank more than doubled to $7.7 billion. Revenue rose 40% year-on-year to $16.2 billion as the lender reported higher interest income.
The results, however, fell shy of expectations from analysts, who had projected about $8.1 billion in pre-tax profit and revenue of $16.3 billion.
Hong Kong
CNN
—
HSBC warned Monday that China’s property market has “potential for a further deterioration” as it reported profits that fell short of expectations, partly because of a $500 million charge to cover potential losses on commercial real estate loans.
Third quarter pre-tax profit at Europe’s biggest bank more than doubled to $7.7 billion. Revenue rose 40% year-on-year to $16.2 billion as the lender reported higher interest income.
The results, however, fell shy of expectations from analysts, who had projected about $8.1 billion in pre-tax profit and revenue of $16.3 billion.
HSBC has benefited from the higher costs of borrowing in recent months. In the third quarter, “there was good broad-based growth across all businesses and geographies, supported by the interest rate environment,” CEO Noel Quinn said in a statement.
But the UK-based bank also warned of ongoing risks that could affect its lending business, flagging an exposure to China that caused a hit to another Asia-focused lender, Standard Chartered, last week.
In the third quarter, HSBC (HSBC) said it had adjusted its expected credit losses — the money it sets aside for defaults on loans — to include a charge of $500 million related to commercial real estate in mainland China.
The charge was “related to heightened economic uncertainty, inflation and rising interest rates, as well as from ongoing developments” in the sector, according to the bank.
This year, China’s property crisis has once again become a sore point for investors as developers continue to bleed cash and fight a protracted sales slump.
Other than that, Business is booming…no signs of concern…everything is doing just fine
“Yes, Justin does amazing in gleaming the news.” Thank you. 😊
Re China’s property crisis, Evergrande’s fate hangs in the balance: “A Hong Kong High Court judge has given crisis-hit Chinese property giant Evergrande one last chance to come up with a new deal over its huge debts or face liquidation.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67258934
Yes – civilisation tangibly fraying at the edges now.
Yup, in Aus too Wiz :/
Australia’s cost-of-living pressures are many and varied and this year’s Foodbank Australia Hunger Report has found the cost of food and groceries is the number one cause of food insecurity and almost half the population is concerned about going hungry.
The report reveals 48 per cent of the general population is anxious or worried about getting consistent access to adequate food.
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/indonesian/en/podcast-episode/krisis-biaya-hidup-membuat-hampir-separuh-penduduk-khawatir-apakah-dapat-makan-dengan-cukup/qfe1cypt6
Thanks, Aum. Looks like the RBA may put up rates again, adding to those pressures:
“In what will be unhappy news for many, all four big banks are tipping the RBA will lift interest rates at its November meeting. If you’re struggling to pay rent, buy groceries and fill your car up with petrol, the news might concern you — and you’re far from alone.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-30/cost-of-living-how-inflation-interest-rates-impact-australians/103020548
“The future we’ve been borrowing from has arrived.”
Really, that says it all. Not just economically but also ecologically.
It sure does, Rusty. Swordfishvegetable mostly deals with the markets but they do come up with some good quotes; another recent one:
“The recession we printed out of in 2020 is the one we’re entering now, and we can’t print out of it this time.”
Is That why War’s broken out, ‘cause the prints of peace ended?
😆 …The two are not entirely unconnected, I suspect. This from June:
“A historic rise in global conflict deaths suggests a violent new era… More than 238,000 people died in global conflict last year, according to a new study released Tuesday, marking a massive 96 percent increase year over year in deaths related to conflicts…
“What’s particularly worrying about this latest figure… is the trend line… the rising number of conflict deaths is just one of the signals of a bloody new era. The number of countries involved in some kind of conflict outside of their borders had risen from 58 in 2008 to 91 in 2022. The Institute for Economics and Peace put this down in part to increasing geopolitical competition.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/29/conflict-war-deaths-global-peace-rise-casualty/
Everyone knows that the solution to all economic problems is simply printing more physical & virtual currency. I just printed $10,000,000,000,000 with my keyboard.
See how easy that is. Think I’ll incorporate into a Central Bank, a Treasury or counterfeiter. My printed currency will only have support from delusional minds.
Those that don’t get a laugh at this capitalist economic system must not have a sense of humor. I’m just waiting for the poor to have had enough of the rich elite in governments & business. Flaunting one’s wealth might not be wise.
“Use it up,wear it out, make it do,do without.” It’s nice to have $4.00 that I didn’t waste on crap that I didn’t need.
Climate Change and the Neoliberal Imagination
“Through climate change, the end of the world as humans have known it is now imaginable to an unprecedented degree. And capitalism, viewed through the lens of climate change, appears to some observers to be a terminal planetary disease.”
“…we have no confident way of knowing whether climate economics strongly influenced policy outcomes as opposed to simply having been used strategically by holders of power to provide an academic veneer to decisions they would have taken regardless”
https://lpeproject.org/blog/climate-change-and-the-neoliberal-imagination/
“..decisions they would have taken regardless” methinks.
Dr Scanlon, “..decisions they would have taken regardless” methinks.
Methinx too 🙂
I may be overly cynical, but the rise of ‘green energy’ rhetoric (and investments) seemed to coincide in time, with increasing awareness of depletion of cheap FF energy.
Rob – “”Is That why War’s broken out, ‘cause the prints of peace ended?”
Methinx Rob — that is part of it, but not the whole story. I tend to follow world events as repeating the “Fall of Rome” with the US as the centre of the current Roman Empire – with its military bases dotted over most the planet, its forcing of its ‘reserve currency’ and cultural/social order on everybody –
like the Monroe Doctrine – continuing to expand, (or trying to), in order to dominate or ‘conquer & colonise’ the entire planet. Part of US long-standing foreign policy is to take out any other power that dares to say No, and if they can’t conquer it, then ‘contain’ it. And the conquered lands, the “allies & vassal states” such as the EU, but particularly Germany, get thrown under the bus when they can no longer be useful (or potentially threatening) to the US.
Look what the US did in Central-South America in the 1980s?
The big part of their ‘Conquer or Contain Policy’, is Russia, China and Iran. Hence pushing NATO (Empire outposts) further East across Ukraine. Which they have all but admitted to having lost — and sabre-rattling over Taiwan because the Empire needs to ‘close-the-gap’ in the containment ring with more military bases. Seems to be a non-starter so far? So after trying to dominate China with its ‘One-Ring-to-Rule-Them-All’ version of capitalism by inviting China into the WTO back in 2001? — now the modern Roman Empire is trying to isolate/contain China economically.
Then the Middle-East, or ‘West Asia’, which I see as a nominal term being increasingly adopted. Here, the Neo-Roman Empire (as the original Empire also did) has been relying on military might, physical & economic destruction through sanctions, threats, forced displacement of whole peoples, ‘War on Terror’, ‘Coalition of the Willing Killing’ etc. And Iran is the ‘Jewel in the Crown’ being geographically positioned where it is. Obviously, Iran/Persia is the geographical logistical centre of the planet’s FF resources. Of course, Israel has long been the Neo-Roman Empire’s biggest military outpost of control/domination over the region including North/East Africa. I’ve seen Israel called the Empire’s ‘attack dogs’, at least since the 1967 war — doing the ‘dirtiest work’ that the US doesn’t want to be seen doing publicly. Occasionally, they have had to pull the leash a bit tighter. But for every ‘success’ over recent decades, the Neo-Roman Empire has taken some pretty big hits too, eg Iraq, Syria
But the Neo-Roman Empire, like so, so, many civilisations before them, has started to reach its military and economic limits to expansion. Getting painful pushback by the ‘barbarians’, so to speak 🙂
The original Romans started to ‘print money’, by diluting the silver/gold content of its coins to pay for its expanding troops and bases and colonial outposts, as the “real” or material economy of gold/silver and other useful metals & minerals for the ‘real’ economy began to run out. Throw in a slave rebellion of two (the human muscle energy they relied on to mine and produce goods & services) which emptied what mines were left. A handful of bad climate/weather years for agriculture reduced their “surplus energy economics” even further.
I recently read Putin’s speech to BRICS in South Africa, supporting the establishment of a BRICS Bank, to provide funding for development loans and grants to BRICS member countries, in ‘local currencies’. While de-dollarisation has been going on slowly for a long time — perhaps like climate change, the process may accelerate?
In short, the neo-Roman Empire is in its slow downfall, but the US will fight-to-the-death by whatever means necessary – no gracious exit (like *some* of the British Empire’s decolonialisation), including ruthlessly betraying “allies” and blasting our ears, eyes and minds 24/7 that they will always continue to be the ‘good guys’ fighting for ‘truth, justice and American Way’. Ha!
Another parallel with the original Roman Empire — is that in their final decades, or century or so,
the ‘leadership’ or the ‘Emperors’ and imperial oligarchies, became increasingly stupider, panicky, more bloodthirsty, internally and externally, an increase of internal ‘elites’ faction-fighting (as per Turchin’s thesis of elites vs counter-elites vying for power/ownership over the remaining).
So yeah, increase in cruel bloodthirsty wars..