“The world is at a “tipping point” on debt that threatens to spark a global reckoning after years of government borrowing binges, the boss of HSBC has warned.
“Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute’s summit in Saudi Arabia, known as Davos in the Desert, Noel Quinn said the current rate of borrowing was unsustainable.
“He said: “I’m concerned about a tipping point on fiscal deficits. When it comes, it will come fast and I think there are a number of economies in the world where there could be a tipping point and it will hit hard.””
“Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts…
““I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.” The comments reference back to the Fed outlook in early 2022 and for much of the previous year, when central bank officials insisted that the inflation surge would be “transitory.””
“Why ‘higher for longer’ might start ‘breaking things’… Central bankers raise rates until economies slow down: but they can’t control the impact of rising yields…
“Thanks to very long time lags, only around half of the impact of central bank tightening has been felt in the economy so far.”
“New Age for Treasuries Means 6% Yield Isn’t ‘Out of the Picture’…
“On Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 5%, a 16-year high. It’s a level few would have predicted during the long run of rock bottom interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis… And the federal budget deficit is surging, testing the market’s ability to absorb a seemingly endless supply of new US government bonds.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/age-treasuries-means-6-yield-184909741.html
“Many people have asked me to why I haven’t commented on the concerning auto loan data that just came out [Car Dealership Guy].
“In case you haven’t heard… The percentage of subprime auto borrowers 60+ days past due on loans hit a record 6.1% in September… But my concerns go way beyond the car market. I’m concerned about people that are struggling to keep up with their bills… I’m concerned about our economy… Most of all, i’m concerned about the future of our country.”
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1716595227417264430
“Big Banks Bailed Out During Financial Crisis Now Running Ads Against Effort to Prevent the Next One [US]…
“…many of the same bailed out banks have launched a 7-figure ad campaign against common-sense proposed federal rules to help prevent another financial crisis. The industry opposes new limits to risky behavior beyond their means by increasing minimum capital requirements.”
“Cap on bankers’ bonuses to be abolished next week [UK].
“The move has been called “an obscene decision” by the TUC but is being done, regulators said, so companies can have lower fixed salary payments and better respond to the financial environment and claw back money more easily in the case of misconduct.”
https://news.sky.com/story/cap-on-bankers-bonuses-to-be-abolished-next-week-12991620
“UK borrowing costs hit fresh 25-year high as interest rates set to remain high.
“The 30-year UK gilt yield surged to 5.209%, its highest since the summer of 1998. Borrowing costs have risen over the past two weeks amid signs that inflation is proving to be stickier than previously expected, prompting investors to demand higher returns for their money.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-borrowing-costs-fresh-high-interest-rates-152535804.html
“UK Economy on the Brink: PMI Data Signals Persistent Contraction…
“October witnessed the manufacturing sector recording a three-month high at 45.3, yet it was the sector’s eighth consecutive month of decline, the longest since the 2008/09 recession. Firms noted customer destocking and a dearth of new orders as factors affecting production.”
“Eurozone business activity sees sudden fall in October, goes from ‘bad to worse’.
“The PMI score for October dropped to 46.5, below the September figure of 47.2, resulting in job losses. The PMI score has now dropped for five successive months, and was declining at the fastest pace since November 2020.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/10/24/713326/Eurozone-business-activity-hits-lowest-in-3-years
“‘Pervasive and relentless’ racism on the rise in Europe, survey finds…
“In every walk of life, from schools to the job market, housing and health, a survey by the EU’s rights agency of people of African descent found high levels of discrimination, with some of the worst results recorded in Austria and Germany, where far-right parties have been on the rise.”
“Threat of higher fuel prices resurrects Yellow Vest fears.
“A recent analysis suggests that the EU’s carbon market for road transport and buildings (known as ETS 2) may see prices rise far above the €45 promised by the European Commission, provoking fears that protests against fuel price hikes will follow.”
“The region at the heart of Germany’s economic stagnation. Facing higher energy costs and the transition to electric vehicles, once prosperous industrial districts are struggling to adapt…
“A recent survey by the think-tank IW Consult identified Donnersbergkreis, named after the eponymous mountain that dominates the surrounding landscape, as one of the most challenged regions in Germany.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2cabc86d-abc1-4d48-93d5-4ff1bdb3f422
“Soft flash PMIs add to rising concerns over Japan’s recovery. The October flash composite PMI fell below neutral for the first time since December 2022 in Japan, which was all the more concerning given the cooling of service activity caused most of the decline.”
https://think.ing.com/snaps/japan-soft-flash-pmis-add-to-concerns-about-recovery-ahead/
“How Far Is China’s Slowdown Spreading? Ask a Dairy Farmer 6,000 Miles Away. Weak demand among Chinese consumers for milk is rippling out to the rolling hills of New Zealand…
“The weak demand from China is driving dairy prices lower. They are now down nearly 40% compared with March last year. A few weeks ago, they were down nearly 50%. “That’s a big hit,” said Jim van der Poel, chairman of DairyNZ…”
“Vietnam power crunch fears darken business outlook.
“Vietnam’s government is rushing to stabilize power supplies after a wave of blackouts over the summer disrupted the lives of millions of residents and darkened the outlook for business in one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Vietnam-power-crunch-fears-darken-business-outlook
“Massa-Milei Runoff in Argentina Is Worst-Case Scenario for Bonds.
“Wall Street is bracing for more losses on Argentina’s sovereign bonds after Sunday’s presidential ballot sent the contest to a second round between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and libertarian outsider Javier Milei — the scenario that investors had feared most.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massa-milei-runoff-argentina-investors-162147221.html
“Nicaragua is ‘weaponizing’ US-bound migrants as Haitians pour in on charter flights, observers say.
“More than 260 charter flights believed to be carrying migrants from Haiti have touched down in Nicaragua in recent months, according to flight data and experts in the region, adding to a historic crush of migration by people hoping to reach the U.S.”
“In Cuba, raising fish in plant-filtered ponds to tackle food shortage.
“Over the last two years, Cuban entrepreneurs Jose Martinez and Joel Lopez have used an innovative technique to raise 24 tons of tilapia — a critical source of food for an island nation surrounded by water but not enough fish.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cuba-raising-fish-plant-filtered-012508541.html
“Anger boils in Morocco’s earthquake zone as protesters demand promised emergency aid.
“Hundreds of protesters on Tuesday took to the streets of a city near the epicenter of a devastating earthquake that hit Morocco last month to express anger and frustration after weeks of waiting for emergency assistance.”
“Avoiding a “second emergency” in Libya: A race against time as the rainy season looms…
“More than 43,000 people have been displaced [by the floods], left with literally nothing. They are badly in need of food, clean water, shelter, healthcare, and financial support. Prices for basics such as bread, cooking oil, and vegetables have shot up. The fishing industry has come to a standstill…”
“Escalation In Israel-Hamas Conflict May Doom Oil Markets.
“Geopolitical risk for oil and gas markets is nearing levels that we have rarely seen during the last 50 years. Parallels can be drawn between the 1973 oil crisis and today, but there are a number of new complicating factors in 2023.”
“Israel’s military push for Gaza invasion in apparent rift with Netanyahu.
“The Israeli prime minister is believed to be delaying the operation, fearing a second front with Hezbollah in the country’s north. On Monday, several Israeli media outlets reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are anxious to start the invasion as troops wait on the border following the biggest mobilisation drive for 50 years.”
“More than 19,000 displaced in Lebanon as Israel border clashes escalate: UN…
“The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said 19,646 people had been displaced inside Lebanon since it began tracking movements on October 8, the day after an assault on Israel by Hamas fighters and an Israeli offensive on the besieged Gaza Strip.”
“Secret US war in Lebanon is tinder for escalation of Israel-Gaza conflict…
“The U.S. has, over decades, poured billions of dollars in security assistance into Lebanon and conducted counterterrorism efforts against Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia group with political and military wings. Lebanon’s dominant political and military force, Hezbollah has long been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S.”
https://theintercept.com/2023/10/24/israel-lebanon-us-military-hezbollah/
“Blinken warns US will defend itself ‘swiftly and decisively’ against attacks by Iran or proxies…
“The top US diplomat’s pointed public missive comes in the wake of an uptick in attacks by Iranian-backed proxies against US interests in the Middle East. US and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 13 times since October 17, according to the Defense Department.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/24/politics/blinken-unsc-iran-israel/index.html
“Iran and Russia denounce West over Caucasus tensions…
“The talks are seen as Moscow’s attempt to reduce growing Western influence in the Caucasus — a region it has long considered as its backyard. According to Moscow’s original plan, the “3+3 format” was meant to also include Georgia. But Tbilisi, which aspires to join the EU and NATO, has rejected the proposal.”
“It has been nearly 15 years since the Chinese started moving in on Japan’s Senkaku Islands [Japan administers them; China & Taiwan both claim ownership]…
“What is the likelihood that this somewhat manageable Chinese gray zone activity escalates into something worse? The likelihood is high. And it is up to the Chinese. The escalation move might be either “flooding the zone” tactics or actual shooting. Although the former could of course lead to the latter.”
https://asiatimes.com/2023/10/a-senkaku-islands-escalation-is-chinas-choice/
“Global banking giants are investing in companies which produce traditional Chinese medicines containing leopard and pangolin parts, a report has found.
“Both species are classed as threatened. The Environmental Investigation Authority identified 62 banks and financial institutions which are investing in three pharmaceutical groups making nine products which they say contain leopard or pangolin.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67191069
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Dozens of vandals in Northern California were caught on video looting a 7-Eleven convenience store earlier this month, authorities said Friday.
The chaos unfolded on Oct. 8 at the store on Elkhorn Boulevard in Rio Linda, just outside of Sacramento, after a nearby sideshow, the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office said. A sideshow is an illegal street racing event where drivers perform dangerous stunts like “donuts” and “burnouts” on public streets.
Surveillance video from inside the store shows individuals streaming through broken plate glass windows, rushing down aisles and jumping over the counter.
The mob was seen stealing cases of beer, cigarette cartons and other items from the store. Many of the individuals were seen covering their faces.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mob-looters-terrorized-california-7-164240610.html
The article says most will be given citations if caught…thank you very much
We haven’t seen as much looting as the US but shoplifting is rampant here in the UK. The government has just this week announced countermeasures:
“Policing Minister Chris Philp chaired a meeting with senior police leaders and 13 of the UK’s biggest retailers today to launch the Retail Crime Action Plan.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/action-plan-to-tackle-shoplifting-launched
The standard American household is now a millionaire, according to the Federal Reserve
It may be hard to believe it while money is so tight amid the cost-of-living crisis, but the average American household has achieved millionaire status.
BY ORIANNA ROSA ROYLE
October 24, 2023 6:46 AM EDT
To be precise, the mean net worth of an American household, adjusted for inflation, was $1.06 million in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve’s consumer finance survey.
In comparison, in 2019 the mean net worth of an average household was $868,000, marking a 23% jump.
Despite the economic challenges brought about by the pandemic and then war in Ukraine, the average household was significantly better off last year than before the pandemic.
Even when looking at the median—another measure of the average, which represents the midpoint in the ranking and is less likely to be skewed by exceptionally high or low numbers—the typical American household was worth $192,900.
See…things are going well… according to the FED
This is apparently due to the surge in home prices. Unless they are going to somehow cash out of the housing market or perhaps downsize, it is hard to argue that it is really making average Americans better off, as the article suggests. Real median incomes declined last year:
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/12/real-incomes-fell-last-year-no-wonder-americans-were-bummed-out
GSR Markets President on Bitcoin’s Role in Geopolitical Conflicts
An executive from the state-run Indian Oil Company (IOC) said that five cargoes have been delayed as India refuses to pay the Chinese Yuan, Bloomberg reported. The three BRICS members are in the crosshairs over currency options and India prefers to pay the US dollar over the Yuan.
BRICS: India Prefers US Dollar, Rejects Paying Chinese Yuan For Russian Oil
brics countries india china flags
Source: telegraphindia.com
India is upset that the Yuan is gaining prominence as Russia and China are using BRICS to further their narrative. The Indian government wants to pay the US dollar, Rupee, or Dirhams for oil and not the Chinese Yuan.
Also Read: BRICS: Chinese Investors Dump a Record $5.1 Billion in US Stocks
Popularizing the Chinese Yuan at the expense of the Rupee hurts India’s efforts to internationalize its local currency. The Modi government does not want to give the Yuan a boost and aims to strengthen the Rupee first.
India believes that both China and Russia are using BRICS as a stepping stone to make their local currencies stronger. The development puts a wedge in the BRICS bloc as distrust among India and China is growing. BRICS members India and China are at loggerheads over land disputes on the border.
Also Read: What Happens If BRICS Asks US & Europe To Pay Local Currency For Oil?
The Modi administration fears that paying in the Chinese Yuan will make the government look weaker during the upcoming elections. Therefore, India is staying away from using the Chinese Yuan as payment and wants to continue in the US dollar.
Who would have guessed this would happen?
Another mine mess you got me into..
Falling metal space junk is changing Earth’s upper atmosphere in ways we don’t fully understand
News
By Harry Baker published about 23 hours ago
A research plane that flew through Earth’s stratosphere identified more than 20 elements that are linked to the aerospace industry. Experts predict that the problem could become much worse in the future.
The sky is littered with metal pollution from bits of space junk that burn up as they reenter the atmosphere, a new study reveals. This unexpected level of contamination, which will likely rise sharply in the coming decades, could change our planet’s atmosphere in ways we still don’t fully understand, researchers warn.
The study, published Oct. 16 in the journal PNAS, is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Stratospheric Aerosol Processes, Budget and Radiative Effects (SABRE) mission, which monitors the levels of aerosols — tiny particles suspended in the air — within the atmosphere.
The team used a research plane, which was fitted with a specialized funnel on its nose cone that captures and analyzes aerosols to sample the stratosphere — the atmosphere’s second layer that spans between 7.5 and 31 miles (12 and 50 kilometers) above the planet’s surface. The study was designed to detect aerosols covered with “meteor dust” left behind by space rocks that burned up upon entry. Instead, the plane detected high levels of metallic elements contaminating the floating molecules, none of which could be explained by meteors or other natural processes.
What goes around, comes around, heh?
A sitrep is out from Simplicius in 2000+ words he says:
* A slag heap that has be under contention for weeks was captured by the Russians. In just a few weeks given the current momentum NATO will be unable to shell/bomb the civilians in Donetsk City even with HIMARS.
* No matter what happens, the ongoing genocide in Gaza is disastrous for the NATO war in the Ukraine because the resources already running low will need to be split between the two fronts.
* Putin is in Iran and a top Russian diplomat is in Iraq. What could they be talking about??
I had not heard of Simplicius, so I had a quick scroll down his Twitter feed and, I think it is safe to say, he is an enthusiastic supporter of Russia and the Russian war-effort:
“Happy ‘Defenders of the Fatherland’ Day!” he says on Feb 23rd, followed by three Russian flags, and then the following day announces, “A YEAR AGO TODAY, Heroic Russian VDV Blasted their way through Gostomel Airport In the Most Successful Air Assault Operation In The History Of Warfare.”
https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1629066268526493696
I’m not saying his analysis is always going to be suspect, and reading reports from the Russian perspective can be a useful counterpoint to Western propaganda, but if we are honest as observers, there is a limit to how clearly we can see through the fog of war, especially when it comes to the nitty gritty. In some ways it is even harder in the so called information age.
The hospital strike in Gaza last week demonstrated the extent to which events on the ground are now immediately co-opted into a preferred narrative with both sides angrily convinced the evidence supports their version.
And just to re-iterate – my focus is on charting the destabilisation of the global economy of which conflicts will increasingly be a part, unfortunately.
I am not interested in “keeping score” of the fighting, unless there are obvious and significant wider ramifications, and I am not interested in cheerleading one side over the other or apportioning blame.
“I think it is safe to say, he is an enthusiastic supporter of Russia and the Russian war-effort:”
Yes, he certainly is. On the other hand, having read his latest SitRep I have difficulty finding any of the facts presented that are incorrect. He presents rumors, but gives disclaimers for them. The editorial/cheer-leader stuff must simply be ignored. Plus, I took 2000+ words and extracted the unassailable facts.
Simplicius has some very toxic/repugnant beliefs that he spews in his other blog (which I simply cannot read). I admire his ability to put together what amounts to an amazing volume of crap! On the other hand, if I only read stuff that I agree with 100% I would have to stick to fantasy.
(Speaking of which, have you read “The Witcher”? I am in the middle of a good translation, but you and Zip probably read it in the original Polish. If not, you should, it is hilarious.)
(Sorry, Panopticon, I re-wrote several times to tone the rest of my comment down … it just got longer.)
This is the only actual insight that I can offer:
As I pointed out to Indi yesterday, this is what human extinction looks like. Its just the beginning, and just the most visible.
“In just a few weeks given the current momentum NATO will be unable to shell/bomb the civilians in Donetsk City even with HIMARS.”
This sounds like speculation, rather than an unassailable fact, Lou, and you can’t simply ignore the cheerleading because it guides the speculation. Ukrinform would, of course, have us believe that Ukraine has been doing excellently in the Donetsk region. We have no way of knowing whose account is accurate and this sort of debate is not really what this blog is for.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3778461-russias-death-toll-in-donetsk-region-in-past-three-days-climbs-to-staggering-3000.html
Fine.
Pintada,
May I suggest, Ianwelsh.net. That is the site that you r looking for. Good that he does not have a v in his name.
Pintada, not this again!
At the risk of annoying Pan even further, I am with Curt:
“May I suggest, Ianwelsh.net. That is the site that you r looking for.”
My own view, (for whatever little its worth), for quite some time now, taken from distilling a gazillion sources, is that the Ukraine war has been managed much like World War 1. A war of attrition on primarily troops and equipment. Neither side making major advances, with tit-for-tat strikes. Russia has focussed much on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. Initial propaganda about US/NATO was to impact Russia economically through sanctions and reduce Russia’s weaponry etc. But Russia has held back its biggest “guns”, or military might, in Ukraine, seeming comfortable enough to just keep it bubbling away on a simmering boil, in the east and south.
As Putin always maintained, he wants that chunk of geography and if he couldn’t get it by diplomatic means with a “friendly” or “puppet” Ukrainian govt, he was going to take it. US/NATO may, or may not, have baited, provoked him for years – but if so, Russia didn’t take ALL the bait on pushing his full military might into the Ukraine battleground. Because he can wait, he can be patient, playing a much longer game – and while it might be annoying for Russia, he can get around the economic sanctions too, and may even have thought the ICC’s arrest warrant for war crimes was funny.
Comparing civilian death tolls, Ukraine has lost fewer in almost 2 years, than Gaza/West Bank lost in a couple of weeks. Ukrainians had warning, and places to go, and even occasional humanitarian cease-fires. Other EU countries didn’t mind too many Ukrainian reffos either – but NOBODY wants Arabic reffos in general – or Palestinians, in particular.
If anyone is getting short of weapons and troops, and more importantly — getting short of energy, with its economic destruction, its Ukraine/NATO/EU.
As for Israel’s war, well.. I used to think Russia was probably waging a “scorched earth” war in Ukraine, until I saw what Israel is doing in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon and Syria etc.
As for the hospital bombing, I’m with the military experts – it was an Israeli bomb, that particular hospital had even been warned twice before, that it would be targeted if they didn’t evacuate to the south. Neither Hamas or Islamic Jihad etc have rockets that can do that much damage in an airburst. (Since there was no crater, it must have been an airburst). While most of their rockets are shot down by the ‘Iron Dome’, the few that get through, never do that kind of damage. Home-tunnel-made jerry-rigged rockets, are not that powerful – and while some do ‘Fall short’ they still don’t do that much damage when they do.
One (retired) military expert said on Nate Hagen’s show, looking at the original vid footage (in the first hours, before it was doctored/replaced by other footage etc) it was an American-made JABM(sp?) missile – very accurate, and possibly even targeted to airburst above the carpark, to blow the vehicles and their petrol tanks. (Thus reducing fuel stocks further, as Gazans including Aid agencies are reduced to siphoning whatever they can scrounge from abandoned vehicles/buildings etc)
But back to economics, being so close to the planet’s major oil reserves (and a bunch of very cranky Arabic nation-states) – I see the stock markets, ie “oil futures” etc are betting on it being a relatively short-lived blip, just like every previous ‘flareup’ over the decades between Israelis and Palestinians.
I guess time will tell, whether the market gamblers are right or not.
My apologies Pan 🙁
Question for Ukraine – What were you thinking, giving up nuclear weapons?
Bet Russia wouldn’t have invaded.
Question for Israel – What were you thinking by not training & permanently arming all Israeli citizens? Bet there would be a lot of dead Hamas terrorists & few hostages.
There’s my $2,000,000,000, ” (for whatever little its worth)”. 😉
How’s that unregulated global capitalism working out with bank owned Central Banks & their random application of interest rates,bailouts for the same bank owners, stupid consumers that simply don’t have to pay price gouging/inflation prices but won’t boycott,no Glass Steagall, permanent tax breaks for the rich & tax breaks for the poor ending, etcetra,etcetra,etcetra?
Could global economic collapse be called a consequence?