“The return of the rice crisis…
“Analysts warn that if India maintains its current restrictions, and other producers follow, the world is on track for a repeat of the 2008 rice crisis, when a contagion of protectionist policies contributed to rice prices tripling in six months, driving inflation across the globe and sparking civil unrest in north Africa, south Asia and the Caribbean.”
“Türkiye extends ban on olive oil exports.
“A three-month export ban on olive oil exports, which came following a significant price increase in Türkiye and around the world, has been extended indefinitely… Producers warned that demand has started to decline and pointed out that there will be a price increase in new crop products.”
“Central Banks Search for Lessons From the Great Inflation Outbreak…
“…academics and economic practitioners are running autopsies on what could have prevented the cost-of-living crisis and how to ensure the same mistakes won’t be repeated. Markets have scrambled to price in high-for-longer interest rates, with a new war in the Middle East adding yet more risk to an already uncertain outlook…”
“How stable is the global financial system really?
“…What worries me more about central bank monetary policy and financial stability (coined macro-prudential policies) is the way in which central banks have expanded their “safety net” wider and wider, including using their balance sheet to buy all kinds of assets… who will ultimately pay for the losses? We are socialising private risks onto public books.”
“Gold rallies as geopolitical turmoil overshadows rising bond yields.
“Gold prices have rallied sharply since the Hamas-Israel conflict broke out, further highlighting the divergence in its long-term relationship with US Treasuries as investors flee to the haven asset. Prices of the precious metal have surged as much as 10 per cent to $1,996 per troy ounce…”
“Hamas and Israeli troops clash in Gaza as airstrikes intensify.
“Hamas fighters and Israeli forces engaged in limited clashes inside Gaza on Sunday as the Israeli military ramped up airstrikes on the Palestinian enclave ahead of what its spokesperson described as the “next stage” of its war on the militant group.”
“Israel expands evacuations as Lebanon border clashes escalate…
“After enacting a plan last week to move residents out of 28 border-area villages, and the nearby town of Kiryat Shmona, with state-funded temporary accommodation, the Defence Ministry said it was adding 14 communities to the evacuation list.”
“Hezbollah alone will decide whether Lebanon − already on the brink of collapse − gets dragged into Israel-Hamas war…
“If a war between Hezbollah and Israel does erupt, the already significant violence and destruction in southern Israel and Gaza will likely be greatly compounded by further massive loss of life in Lebanon, Israel and perhaps in other parts of the Middle East.”
“Iran’s quandary: How to stay out of Israel’s war on Hamas…
“…any major attack against a U.S.-backed Israel could exact a heavy toll on Iran and trigger public anger against the clerical rulers in a nation already mired in an economic crisis, said the officials who outlined the various military, diplomatic and domestic priorities being weighed by the establishment.”
“An Iranian teenager who fell into a coma this month after an alleged encounter with officers over violating the country’s hijab law is said to be brain dead, Iranian state media reported on Sunday…
“The report on Geravand could revive countrywide protests sparked by the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini…”
“Two Iraqi soldiers and two fighters of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces were killed on Sunday as the two sides clashed in a mountainous northern area, Iraqi and Kurdish security sources said.
“Iraqi Prime Minister and commander-in-chief of the armed forces Mohammed al-Sudani ordered forming a high-level committee to investigate, a military spokesperson for Sudani said in a statement.”
“‘We will not give away our land’: Armenians near Azerbaijan exclave…
“Following the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to an almost full exodus of its Armenian population, fear grows among locals… “We worry every day. Every hour. We even know where their troops are located at our borders,” said Margo. “We will not give away our land, not a chance. We will fight…””
“American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns…
“Washington has ordered all non-emergency US government personnel and family members to leave Iraq. The state department cited “increased security threats against US government personnel and interests” for the order.”
“The housing market was already painful, ugly and anxious. Now the 8% mortgage rate is back.
“Today’s housing market is a toxic mix of high mortgage rates, high prices, tight supply and strangely strong pent-up demand — and it’s scaring off buyers and sellers alike.”
“Americans Are Overdue With Their Car Payments At Highest Rate In Nearly 30 Years.
“Higher car prices and rising interest rates are hindering car owners’ ability to afford their vehicle payments, as 6.1% of subprime auto borrowers are at least 60 days past due on their loans, the highest percentage in data dating back to 1994, according to Bloomberg, which cited Fitch Ratings.”
“Red Alert for America’s Wild Arctic Fishery…
“America’s great northern fishery is now gripped in a gathering crisis. Fish runs and populations of several iconic species, such as king salmon and snow crab, have suffered crashes while pressure mounts on others. The politics of Alaskan fishing has soured amid a scramble to preserve access and ascribe blame.”
“Australia in ‘the midst of a food security crisis’ as 3.7m households struggle to buy enough to eat.
“The biggest driver of food insecurity was the cost-of-living crisis, with 77% of households saying it was the main reason, up from 64% in 2022. This was followed by low-income employment and inadequate welfare payments…”
“Low-income families in Scotland are at an increasing risk of malnutrition as the price of some essential food items continues to soar.
“A report by Which? found cupboard staples including fruits, vegetables, cheese, meat and porridge were subject to the highest price hikes with some increasing by as much as 144% in the last year.”
“‘We had no money’: desperate UK public increasingly turning to pawnbrokers to make ends meet…
“Amid the cost of living crisis and with inflation stubbornly high, the Financial Conduct Authority says there has been a 25% increase over the last year in the number of new loans from pawnbrokers. Nathan Finch, Pickwick’s managing director, notes an uptick in business by about 30% in their eight stores over the last 12 months alone.”
“Debt can be redefined but it won’t disappear. Hard decisions are needed…
“It’s an uncomfortable position to be in — horrible, in fact. The present [UK] government will preside over the biggest tax rise over a single parliament since at least the end of the Second World War. That will take tax as a fraction of national income to its highest sustained level ever. Yet government debt is stuck at getting on for 100 per cent of national income…”
“‘Britain will need gas to avoid blackouts for decades’…despite calls for the Government to begin shutting off the pipes.
“Jon Butterworth, chief executive of National Gas, said: “In 2022, the wind didn’t blow enough or at all for 262 days. And in those 262 days, we would have had rolling blackouts, or a full blackout across the UK if it wasn’t for gas.””
“EU accelerates Egypt aid package as it fears fresh wave of refugees.
“Brussels is stepping up its efforts to conclude a broad economic support agreement with Egypt, as the EU grows increasingly nervous about the Israel-Hamas war potentially escalating into a regional conflict and a new refugee crisis erupting.”
“More than 1,400 African migrants have reached Spain’s Canary Islands this weekend, with one vessel bringing a single-boat record of 321 people, authorities said Sunday.
“The first fortnight of this month alone saw 8,561 arrivals – Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska last week said on a visit to the archipelago the spike in numbers resulted from political “destabilisation in the Sahel”.”
“Nigerians groan as price of cooking gas, rice, other staple foods surge in October…
“Nigerians have continued to grapple with galloping food prices over the years, which has only worsened following the announcement by the federal government to discontinue petrol subsidy payments and devalue the official exchange rate.”
“Violent unrest erupts in Bophelong as residents loot overnight [South Africa]…
“Angry residents… engaged in a night of mayhem and destruction. The spark for this unfortunate incident was a feedback meeting held at the Bophelong community hall yesterday, where Nkhwashu expressed his concerns about the region turning into a ‘banana republic’.”
“Peru approves $400 million fiscal stimulus to boost economy as recession bites.
“Peru’s Congress approved a fiscal stimulus package of around 1.581 billion soles ($408.42 million) late Friday in a bid to ease the impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon and to reactivate the country’s economy amid a recession.”
“There’s No Easy Way Out of Argentina’s Endless Crisis…
“The country is on the verge of a sixth recession in a decade and inflation rose to 138% last month. With its geopolitical alignment also in flux (the outgoing government has been deepening ties with China) betting on Argentina is now “more akin to gambling,” the founder of M2M Capital Diego Ferro mused.”
“China deploys warships to Middle East amid fears of wider conflict…
“China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed six warships in the region amid escalating tensions. According to the South China Morning Post, these warships, including the Zibo, a Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, the frigate Jingzhou, and the integrated supply ship Qiandaohu, were part of the PLA’s 44th naval escort task force.”
“China and the Philippines traded accusations over a collision in disputed waters of the South China Sea as Chinese vessels blocked a Philippine boat supplying forces there on Sunday, the latest in a series of maritime confrontations.
“The two countries have had numerous run-ins in areas of the South China Sea in recent months, especially the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands.”
“China raids iPhone maker Foxconn as founder runs to be Taiwan president…
“The raids come as Foxconn’s founder and biggest shareholder, Terry Gou, prepares to mount a bid for the presidency of Taiwan. His candidacy has led to questions over whether Beijing could put pressure on Mr Gou through his business interests.”
“Graphite stocks surge as Beijing opens new frontier in trade war.
“Australian graphite stocks surged after China announced export controls restricting supply of one of the key battery minerals required for electric vehicles, opening a new frontier in a trade war with the US and its allied nations. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter…”
“China coal imports hit record high after surge in air conditioning use… Rising temperatures trigger spike in power demand…
“China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in renewable energy in recent years. However, hydropower generation slumped 9pc in the first nine months of the year just as demand surged. Coal power generation rose by around 6pc over the same period.”
“The outlook is mixed: The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation…
“The findings suggest that as climate change brings more frequent and more severe weather shocks, the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation may increase, and hotter summers may result in more frequent and persistent upward pressure on inflation.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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