“The return of the rice crisis…
“Analysts warn that if India maintains its current restrictions, and other producers follow, the world is on track for a repeat of the 2008 rice crisis, when a contagion of protectionist policies contributed to rice prices tripling in six months, driving inflation across the globe and sparking civil unrest in north Africa, south Asia and the Caribbean.”
https://www.ft.com/content/416736ec-7960-496d-b6c8-fd7a2fd99668
“Türkiye extends ban on olive oil exports.
“A three-month export ban on olive oil exports, which came following a significant price increase in Türkiye and around the world, has been extended indefinitely… Producers warned that demand has started to decline and pointed out that there will be a price increase in new crop products.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiye-extends-ban-on-olive-oil-exports-187170
“Central Banks Search for Lessons From the Great Inflation Outbreak…
“…academics and economic practitioners are running autopsies on what could have prevented the cost-of-living crisis and how to ensure the same mistakes won’t be repeated. Markets have scrambled to price in high-for-longer interest rates, with a new war in the Middle East adding yet more risk to an already uncertain outlook…”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-banks-search-lessons-great-130000250.html
“How stable is the global financial system really?
“…What worries me more about central bank monetary policy and financial stability (coined macro-prudential policies) is the way in which central banks have expanded their “safety net” wider and wider, including using their balance sheet to buy all kinds of assets… who will ultimately pay for the losses? We are socialising private risks onto public books.”
“Gold rallies as geopolitical turmoil overshadows rising bond yields.
“Gold prices have rallied sharply since the Hamas-Israel conflict broke out, further highlighting the divergence in its long-term relationship with US Treasuries as investors flee to the haven asset. Prices of the precious metal have surged as much as 10 per cent to $1,996 per troy ounce…”
https://www.ft.com/content/d78f31ea-b909-44d9-ac71-8ae1eb6ca977
“Hamas and Israeli troops clash in Gaza as airstrikes intensify.
“Hamas fighters and Israeli forces engaged in limited clashes inside Gaza on Sunday as the Israeli military ramped up airstrikes on the Palestinian enclave ahead of what its spokesperson described as the “next stage” of its war on the militant group.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/22/middleeast/israel-gaza-hamas-war-sunday-intl-hnk/index.html
“Israel expands evacuations as Lebanon border clashes escalate…
“After enacting a plan last week to move residents out of 28 border-area villages, and the nearby town of Kiryat Shmona, with state-funded temporary accommodation, the Defence Ministry said it was adding 14 communities to the evacuation list.”
“Hezbollah alone will decide whether Lebanon − already on the brink of collapse − gets dragged into Israel-Hamas war…
“If a war between Hezbollah and Israel does erupt, the already significant violence and destruction in southern Israel and Gaza will likely be greatly compounded by further massive loss of life in Lebanon, Israel and perhaps in other parts of the Middle East.”
“Iran’s quandary: How to stay out of Israel’s war on Hamas…
“…any major attack against a U.S.-backed Israel could exact a heavy toll on Iran and trigger public anger against the clerical rulers in a nation already mired in an economic crisis, said the officials who outlined the various military, diplomatic and domestic priorities being weighed by the establishment.”
https://news.yahoo.com/irans-quandary-stay-israels-war-060932302.html
“An Iranian teenager who fell into a coma this month after an alleged encounter with officers over violating the country’s hijab law is said to be brain dead, Iranian state media reported on Sunday…
“The report on Geravand could revive countrywide protests sparked by the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini…”
“Two Iraqi soldiers and two fighters of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces were killed on Sunday as the two sides clashed in a mountainous northern area, Iraqi and Kurdish security sources said.
“Iraqi Prime Minister and commander-in-chief of the armed forces Mohammed al-Sudani ordered forming a high-level committee to investigate, a military spokesperson for Sudani said in a statement.”
“‘We will not give away our land’: Armenians near Azerbaijan exclave…
“Following the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to an almost full exodus of its Armenian population, fear grows among locals… “We worry every day. Every hour. We even know where their troops are located at our borders,” said Margo. “We will not give away our land, not a chance. We will fight…””
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/20/armenians-fear-after-karabakh-offensive
“American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns…
“Washington has ordered all non-emergency US government personnel and family members to leave Iraq. The state department cited “increased security threats against US government personnel and interests” for the order.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9cad1ada-5566-49c5-80b6-9e83ff0076fc
“The housing market was already painful, ugly and anxious. Now the 8% mortgage rate is back.
“Today’s housing market is a toxic mix of high mortgage rates, high prices, tight supply and strangely strong pent-up demand — and it’s scaring off buyers and sellers alike.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/21/housing-market-is-painful-ugly-anxious-with-8percent-high-rate.html
“Americans Are Overdue With Their Car Payments At Highest Rate In Nearly 30 Years.
“Higher car prices and rising interest rates are hindering car owners’ ability to afford their vehicle payments, as 6.1% of subprime auto borrowers are at least 60 days past due on their loans, the highest percentage in data dating back to 1994, according to Bloomberg, which cited Fitch Ratings.”
“Red Alert for America’s Wild Arctic Fishery…
“America’s great northern fishery is now gripped in a gathering crisis. Fish runs and populations of several iconic species, such as king salmon and snow crab, have suffered crashes while pressure mounts on others. The politics of Alaskan fishing has soured amid a scramble to preserve access and ascribe blame.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-opinion-arctic-geopolitics-resources/fisheries.html
“Australia in ‘the midst of a food security crisis’ as 3.7m households struggle to buy enough to eat.
“The biggest driver of food insecurity was the cost-of-living crisis, with 77% of households saying it was the main reason, up from 64% in 2022. This was followed by low-income employment and inadequate welfare payments…”
“Low-income families in Scotland are at an increasing risk of malnutrition as the price of some essential food items continues to soar.
“A report by Which? found cupboard staples including fruits, vegetables, cheese, meat and porridge were subject to the highest price hikes with some increasing by as much as 144% in the last year.”
“‘We had no money’: desperate UK public increasingly turning to pawnbrokers to make ends meet…
“Amid the cost of living crisis and with inflation stubbornly high, the Financial Conduct Authority says there has been a 25% increase over the last year in the number of new loans from pawnbrokers. Nathan Finch, Pickwick’s managing director, notes an uptick in business by about 30% in their eight stores over the last 12 months alone.”
“Debt can be redefined but it won’t disappear. Hard decisions are needed…
“It’s an uncomfortable position to be in — horrible, in fact. The present [UK] government will preside over the biggest tax rise over a single parliament since at least the end of the Second World War. That will take tax as a fraction of national income to its highest sustained level ever. Yet government debt is stuck at getting on for 100 per cent of national income…”
“‘Britain will need gas to avoid blackouts for decades’…despite calls for the Government to begin shutting off the pipes.
“Jon Butterworth, chief executive of National Gas, said: “In 2022, the wind didn’t blow enough or at all for 262 days. And in those 262 days, we would have had rolling blackouts, or a full blackout across the UK if it wasn’t for gas.””
“EU accelerates Egypt aid package as it fears fresh wave of refugees.
“Brussels is stepping up its efforts to conclude a broad economic support agreement with Egypt, as the EU grows increasingly nervous about the Israel-Hamas war potentially escalating into a regional conflict and a new refugee crisis erupting.”
https://www.ft.com/content/100bcbe1-8cd8-4864-b726-691feabdff4e
“More than 1,400 African migrants have reached Spain’s Canary Islands this weekend, with one vessel bringing a single-boat record of 321 people, authorities said Sunday.
“The first fortnight of this month alone saw 8,561 arrivals – Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska last week said on a visit to the archipelago the spike in numbers resulted from political “destabilisation in the Sahel”.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/more-1-400-african-migrants-221659496.html
“Nigerians groan as price of cooking gas, rice, other staple foods surge in October…
“Nigerians have continued to grapple with galloping food prices over the years, which has only worsened following the announcement by the federal government to discontinue petrol subsidy payments and devalue the official exchange rate.”
“Violent unrest erupts in Bophelong as residents loot overnight [South Africa]…
“Angry residents… engaged in a night of mayhem and destruction. The spark for this unfortunate incident was a feedback meeting held at the Bophelong community hall yesterday, where Nkhwashu expressed his concerns about the region turning into a ‘banana republic’.”
https://vaalweekblad.com/173520/violent-unrest-erupts-in-bophelong-as-residents-loot-overnight/
“Peru approves $400 million fiscal stimulus to boost economy as recession bites.
“Peru’s Congress approved a fiscal stimulus package of around 1.581 billion soles ($408.42 million) late Friday in a bid to ease the impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon and to reactivate the country’s economy amid a recession.”
“There’s No Easy Way Out of Argentina’s Endless Crisis…
“The country is on the verge of a sixth recession in a decade and inflation rose to 138% last month. With its geopolitical alignment also in flux (the outgoing government has been deepening ties with China) betting on Argentina is now “more akin to gambling,” the founder of M2M Capital Diego Ferro mused.”
“China deploys warships to Middle East amid fears of wider conflict…
“China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed six warships in the region amid escalating tensions. According to the South China Morning Post, these warships, including the Zibo, a Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, the frigate Jingzhou, and the integrated supply ship Qiandaohu, were part of the PLA’s 44th naval escort task force.”
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-war-china-deploys-warships-to-region-amid-fears-of-wider-conflict/articleshow/104630471.cms
“China and the Philippines traded accusations over a collision in disputed waters of the South China Sea as Chinese vessels blocked a Philippine boat supplying forces there on Sunday, the latest in a series of maritime confrontations.
“The two countries have had numerous run-ins in areas of the South China Sea in recent months, especially the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands.”
“China raids iPhone maker Foxconn as founder runs to be Taiwan president…
“The raids come as Foxconn’s founder and biggest shareholder, Terry Gou, prepares to mount a bid for the presidency of Taiwan. His candidacy has led to questions over whether Beijing could put pressure on Mr Gou through his business interests.”
“Graphite stocks surge as Beijing opens new frontier in trade war.
“Australian graphite stocks surged after China announced export controls restricting supply of one of the key battery minerals required for electric vehicles, opening a new frontier in a trade war with the US and its allied nations. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter…”
“China coal imports hit record high after surge in air conditioning use… Rising temperatures trigger spike in power demand…
“China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in renewable energy in recent years. However, hydropower generation slumped 9pc in the first nine months of the year just as demand surged. Coal power generation rose by around 6pc over the same period.”
“The outlook is mixed: The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation…
“The findings suggest that as climate change brings more frequent and more severe weather shocks, the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation may increase, and hotter summers may result in more frequent and persistent upward pressure on inflation.”
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/outlook-mixed-asymmetric-effects-weather-shocks-inflation
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Thanks again Pan, I can confirm that the Aust latest official figures post that 1 in 3 households on average nationally are now enduring “food insecurity”. Being average, obviously some regions are much worse off than others.
And an Aussie icon national bakery chain company – Sara Lee – frozen desserts, pastries etc – has gone bust after 50 years *sad*:-(
A victim of a downturn in discretionary spending I guess — once popular regular average family cheesecakes, apple crumbles, berry cream pies etc are becoming luxuries now.
As for my continuing obsession with bonds Haha..(Pan – I will move on eventually! I promise!)
I did find this very helpful in more pieces for the jigsaw:
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/10/20/why-longer-dated-treasury-yields-spiked-its-not-magic-yield-solves-all-demand-problems/
Poor Sara Lee. It wasn’t loved to the same degree but there was a lot of affection for Wilko, a UK retail chain selling homewares and household goods, which went bankrupt a couple of weeks ago with the closure of 400 stores and the loss of 12,500 jobs.
Re Bonds, the FT covers similar ground to Wolf Richter today:
“A big problem looming for bond markets – issuance is rising just as price-insensitive buying by central banks is being scaled back…
“..this time around, central banks — the price-insensitive buyers — are mostly not in the market. The private sector now has to absorb a large amount of new sovereign debt. The theory that describes the curve well in normal times says that this should not matter for the level of yields. But yields are determined by the marginal buyer, which will now be the price-sensitive private sector…
“In this new world… private sector investors have many other options when it comes to purchasing bonds. So yields have to rise to become more attractive…
“In some countries, such as the UK and the US, term premia [ie the extra return for investors for taking on interest rate risk over longer periods] have already reached levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. However, given the large amount of issuance, QT and investor caution about future yield levels, term premia could easily rise further from the levels we see today.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b0f842ad-7ec5-45b8-9752-a6ae0252b36f
And re the US in particular, this article says that, “Unsustainable US debt is now looming on the horizon…
“There is a limit to how much debt any government can accumulate before a debt spiral begins in which debt holders’ fear of default causes them to demand higher interest rates, which then causes higher deficits and more debt and then even-higher interest rates, deficits and debt in turn. This is proving to be the year in which many things that were thought to be 10-15 years away are suddenly right upon us.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/unsustainable-us-debt-is-now-looming-on-the-horizon-20231015-p5ecbb
From the article, “… Since ramping up QT to full speed last September 2022, the Fed has been shedding Treasury securities at a rate of about $60 billion a month …”
There are two typical ways for the Fed to slow the economy and therefore control inflation. Do quantitative tightening, or raise the Fed interest rate. They have been doing both. At the same time, Biden wants $100 billion on top of a nearly $1 trillion defense budget to fund three wars (Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan).
“… the risks posed by out-of-control government deficits in an inflationary environment, …” indeed.
What is crazy making are the follow-on (possibly) unintended side effects, and the “reasons” they give for doing it. There is inflation caused by increases in the price of oil and food. One way to lower inflation would be to get more energy and more food (which of course is not that easy, but I will leave it for later). The other way … raise interest rates – the Fed can sell treasuries, and/or raise the basic interest rate (and blame raising wages).
If the US raises interest rates:
* The relative value of the dollar goes up. Any debt held by countries in dollars gets much harder to repay, causing wide-spread immiseration.
* Developing countries that have oil (and indeed oil companies) have more difficulty raising funds with which to drill for oil – thus putting upward pressure on the price of oil.
* It drops the face value of bonds causing anyone who bought a bond at a lower interest rate to loose money. If bond values stay down, or drop further, which they must since the price of oil and food are/must be trending up, it will inevitably cause a banking crisis.
This is an example of disconnect here in the modern civilized world seeking safety in hard assets that is destroying life on the planet…
Gold Miners in Guyana Are Destroying the Amazon (2008)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wlxCu_zIt0c&pp=ygUYSG93IGdvbGQgZGVzdHJveWVkIGdhYm9u
And in Africa it’s just as destructive as in South America
Ghana: Illegal gold mining threatens water supplies
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=plwjOijh89U&pp=ygUYSG93IGdvbGQgZGVzdHJveWVkIGdhYm9u
Just picked up a copy of this title
The Philosophy of Ted Kaczynski: Why the Unabomber was Right about Modern Technology Kindle Edition
Chad A Haag
From this link
n his manifesto, Kaczynski wrote cogently of his fear that “the technophiles are taking us all on an utterly reckless ride” and that technology “will eventually acquire something approaching complete control over human behaviour”. He was especially fearful of the rise of artificial intelligence – a concern shared today by thinkers including the cosmologist Stephen Hawking. “A super-intelligent AI,” Professor Hawking has warned, “will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we’re in trouble.”
Kaczynski was way ahead of him. Twenty years earlier, he predicted that computer scientists would “succeed in developing intelligent machines that can do all things better than human beings. As society and the problems that face it become more and more complex and as machines become more and more intelligent, people will let machines make more and more of their decisions for them”.
Eventually “the decisions necessary to keep the system running will be so complex that human beings will be incapable of making them intelligently”, at which stage “the machines will be in effective control”. People won’t be able to turn off the machines “because they will be so dependent on them that turning them off would amount to suicide
…The scale of the intrusion of technology into our lives is now so extensive and complex that it is near impossible for individuals to grasp. But some technologists, at least, are starting to wonder if it isn’t all getting out of hand – and in the process are beginning to sound an awful lot like Kaczynski.
Last week the San Francisco-based Centre for Humane Technology, a group of “deeply concerned former tech insiders”, launched a campaign to “realign technology with humanity’s best interests”. Technology, it announced, “is hijacking our minds and … eroding the pillars of our society: mental health, democracy, social relationships and our children”.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/the-unabomber-was-a-tech-obsessed-crazed-killer-but-40-years-on-technologists-are-starting-to-wonder-if-some-of-his-theories-might-be-true-1.707054
Perhaps as Uncle Ted put forth the sooner the house of cards falls the better for the planet.
PS The author stresses he does not advocate in any manner violence or terror in actions ,
Same for myself…. unfortunately, Ted pointed out to be heard of noticed in any meaningful manner one had to restore to such….
Vince, just so you know, more than one link automatically puts a comment in moderation.
Right VPK;
I read Teds manifesto several years ago, and he made a lot of sense it is in my mind completely reasonable. What he didn’t get is that one person, (one army) can’t bring it down or fix it. Taking action just gets you in jail.
The book:
https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/taking-june21-web.pdf
(BTW: Not only does the system put your comment in limbo if you have included more than one link, if you are in the middle of drafting a comment and leave the site for some research, and then someone else posts your draft comment is erased. I just lost this entire comment. It is better to draft in a word processor and then block copy.)
The issue:
“The derivatives bubble has been estimated to exceed one quadrillion dollars (a quadrillion is 1,000 trillion). The entire GDP of the world is estimated at $105 trillion, or 10% of one quadrillion; and the collective wealth of the world is an estimated $360 trillion. Clearly, there is not enough collateral anywhere to satisfy all the derivative claims. The majority of derivatives now involve interest rate swaps, and interest rates have shot up. The bubble looks ready to pop.”
Actually, this isn’t the entire issue. Mr. Webb claims that no one owns the equity in their home, any stock in any company, or any bond; municipal, corporate, whatever.
The interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeP71CKRZNs
The endorsement:
Dr. Morgan thinks the book is a must read.
I am about half way through the very dense and jargon filled book that is only about 110 pages long not including the introduction where Webb presents his credentials and work history and the extensive bibliography. So far it is pretty clear that in a long term effort to make sure the too-big-to-fail banks are also in complete control of finance in the west, and peripherally to smooth international trade in securities a complex bureaucracy has been set up wherein the owner of record for all stocks, bonds, and debt (bank assets) is not the person that we think. It is in fact the banks (well, not exactly).
If there is a banking crisis as there is once in a while and one is due, mortgage holders might receive an eviction letter out of the blue whether they are current on their payments or not and be homeless with no recourse, no remedy, and no other notice. A person like Elon Musk could wake up one day penniless wondering what happened.
I said yesterday that China and Russia are not party to this whole mess, and Panopticon pointed out that I was wrong, or at least not clear. Chinese gamblers have purchased derivatives, so there is some exposure there. What I was saying, is that the central banks of those two countries (and perhaps others in the global south) are not connected to the crazy ownership rules that are pervasive in the west. Of course, any economic crash involving anywhere close to a quadrillion dollars would present significant contagion risk 🙂 for the global south.
Still reading …
“(BTW: Not only does the system put your comment in limbo if you have included more than one link, if you are in the middle of drafting a comment and leave the site for some research, and then someone else posts your draft comment is erased. I just lost this entire comment. It is better to draft in a word processor and then block copy.)”
Thank you, Lou. This is worth knowing. WordPress definitely has its idiosyncrasies.
“If there is a banking crisis as there is once in a while and one is due, mortgage holders might receive an eviction letter out of the blue whether they are current on their payments or not and be homeless with no recourse, no remedy, and no other notice.”
I am wondering how on earth an economy would hold together in a situation of mass evictions, as I assume it would lead to a huge plunge in discretionary spending and a deflationary collapse, if the banking crisis, especially in this era of unprecedented debt, had not itself already generated one. I guess I need to read the book but time is ever my enemy.
Lol … “The machines will be in effective control”. HELLO?! That ship has sailed. And we gave the machines control willingly. I’m sure you’ve heard the statement that, “Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results is insanity”, yet everyone who turns the key in the ignition with no results tries again and again, often times with the result that the car starts! Who questions why until they get back in and it fails to start again?
Machines elicit insane behavior from humans (just ride shotgun with the nicest person you know and see how long before they’re screaming like a crazy person because of another driver/pedestrian’s behavior). Climate change is a direct result of our slavery to machinery, and our “solution” to it is to build ever larger, more energy-intensive and behavior-controlling machines. To posit that “someday” the machines will be in control reflects a deep misunderstanding of the box we have constructed for ourselves.
‘It’s not reason that drives mankind, but machines’. Powerful machines we will continue to feed fuel to, until the effluence thereby produced kills us all, and, like Noah’s ark story, all the innocent creatures we have doomed because of our depravity. Even as the COPout conferees start piling onto jets, using the most carbon-intensive form of travel to fly to the most carbon-intensive economy on the globe to posture yet again, the rate at which CO2 is accumulating in the troposphere is not only not abating, it is still accelerating: 25 years after Kyoto.
Rob, I took the liberty of dividing your comments into paras for easier digestibility.
Thank you; my apologies.
Spot on, Rob. You nail it concisely. Thanks.
I read that Chia is sending warships to the Middle East. I do not know what good that is going to do. The US and its allies outnumber China and Russia in Aircraft Carriers 19 to 1. Ok it is reported that China has 3 carriers. But the first two did not even have a catipult launch system. So they really can not count for anything.
Chia’s action is really just a public relations ploy. Sesam and Poppy like India are likely to remain neutral in the middle eastern stew. They know that they do not belong there.
China and Russia have hypersonic missiles. Given that those missiles are unstoppable using the best air defense that the US has, an aircraft carrier is just a big floating target of no value if/when things heat up.
Hypersonic missiles come straight down at their target from the stratosphere at mach 9.5 and are accurate. To sink a ship, they would not even need an explosive warhead.
Carriers! LOL
Carriers are the strong arm of the empire and are very useful for providing a platform for bombing poor people with no air defenses (i.e. the Palestinians). In a war against a competent modern enemy -China or Russia – …
There is no shortage of anything,just too many people using everything.
Overshoot is not the real problem. The base problem is overpopulation.
It will be entertaining to watch families fight over a scrap of food. At that point economics/money become moot.
Well,look at all the specialness.
https://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/how-many-babies-are-born-each-day
Pintada,
I hope that you are right about the vulnerabilty of carriers. It certianly seems to make sense. I shoulld have considered that. But then I have to wonder why the Chinese are trying to build them.
Could the answer be to sink cargo ships on the world’s sea lanes? My first thought on that is that submarines would be cheaper.
This war between the the US and its colonies and Russia-China-Iran-Venezuela-Palestine has been anticipated for decades. I imagine that those working inside the MICs of both sides tried to think of everything that they could do to get or maintain an edge in the anticipated conflct. Aircraft carriers in this war may be the battleships of the last war though. Maybe not useless. But not worth the resources poured in to them.
It seems to me that the US wants to fight the war before it looses the military advantages that it once clearly had. Consdering that even if the US wins it will inherit a burned barren world even if there is no nuclear war I really have to wonder about the mental state of those that actually make the decisions in the west.
Curt said, “It seems to me that the US wants to fight the war before it looses the military advantages that it once clearly had. Consdering that even if the US wins it will inherit a burned barren world even if there is no nuclear war I really have to wonder about the mental state of those that actually make the decisions in the west.”
Yes, I am leaning in that direction too, and then with an election coming up, for sure, maybe.
I apologize for my tone regarding the aircraft carriers.