“WORLD CLIMATIC HISTORY BEING REWRITTEN… We are breaking thresholds of what was though being possible for this time of the year:
“45.9C [114.6F] Casa Colorada MEXICO 46.4C/115.5F Matam SENEGAL.
“We are at unprecedented heat levels for this time of the year in the whole Northern Hemisphere.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715453893386060208
“I’m getting so desperate for some positive climate news, that the ending of this 113 day record Northern Hemisphere [surface air] temperature streak would qualify.
“This little jump at the end upsets me more than it should…”
https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1715391202005045362
“Climate Science in Arctic ‘Broken’ as US and Europe Isolate Russia.
“Collaboration between Western and Russian scientists stopped after the invasion of Ukraine and is still nearly impossible, putting vital research in jeopardy… Now geopolitics are a main determinant of whether scientific projects can move forward.”
“Impacts of thawing permafrost to be severe for Fairbanks, noticed globally…
“the Earth will be wholly impacted by the release of methane gas that will come from the melting ice in permafrost. “So for them it’s much more kind of scary that permafrost is releasing these greenhouse gases, which will increase the rate of warming and increasing the rate of warming will increase the rate of thawing of permafrost, a so called positive feedback mechanism…””
“Billions of snow crabs in Alaska likely vanished due to warm ocean, study says…
“The eastern Bering Sea snow crabs, once thought to be overfished, actually starved to death en masse because the change in water temperature “increased their caloric needs considerably”, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in the study.”
“As temperatures rise, songbirds struggle to keep young healthy, researchers find [US]…
“The paper echoes rising concerns from ecologists and bird scientists, known as ornithologists, that the world is in the midst of a massive bird decline. Since the 1970s, North America’s bird population has dropped by almost 3 billion…”
“Summerlike heat bakes western US with record-high temperatures in jeopardy from California to Texas…
“The warm and dry weather pattern across most of the western U.S. will get warmer over the next few days, with several high temperatures nearing or breaking daily records from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest and east into Texas.”
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/record-heat-west-cool-forecast-east
“Extraordinary 108F at Palm Springs. a quick check and I found only one later 108F in all USA than today: Indio 24 October 1959.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715547081870319856
“‘You should be able to have a water break’: US workers fight for extreme-heat rules…
“What happened in Nevada has taken place across the country in recent years. Industry groups are fighting worker heat protections, arguing that current regulations already address heat illness, businesses already protect workers, and that a one-size-fits-all approach would be costly and ineffective.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/19/climate-crisis-extreme-heat-regulations
“Extreme heatwaves in Texas fueled a 22% rise in flaring incidents in the Permian shale basin in the 12 months ended September, analytics firm Enverus said in a note.
“Satellite data from the largest U.S. shale basin showed flaring, or the burning of unwanted gas, hitting near three-year peaks in July when Texas was gripped by extreme heat, Enverus said in the note on Thursday.”
“The Pasadena Public Health Department has reported a case of Dengue virus in a Pasadena resident, the first confirmed incident of the mosquito-borne disease in the entire state not associated with travel outside the United States…
“In 2023 to date, there have been more than 500 reported cases of locally acquired dengue in the U.S. — until Friday all occurring in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico.”
“Almost half the world’s population could be at risk from dengue due to global warming.
“Once specific to small pockets of Asia, the infection can now be found across several continents of the world, say researchers… Analysis from Airfinity, a science data analyst company, shows that the incidence of dengue has already increased by at least 30-fold over the past 50 years.”
“The Panama Canal Authority on Friday said it was temporarily suspending auctions for Neopanamax and Panamax locks as the waterway continues to deal with a drought.
“The ACP put on hold the extraordinary and special auctions for the Neopanamax locks as well as daily auctions for the Panamax locks for Oct. 23 through Oct. 31 transit dates.”
“Extreme weather is making major trade routes less reliable, and it’s only going to get worse.
“Extreme weather is becoming an increasing challenge for transport. It’s now seriously affecting supply chains and hampering the flow of goods on vital waterways – and we’re expecting this to gain momentum moving forward. Shippers should be prepared for the risk…”
https://think.ing.com/articles/extreme-weather-makes-major-trade-routes-less-reliable/
“Historic Amazon drought halts some grain barge navigation.
“Some grain shipments on rivers in Northern Brazil have been halted due to a drought that has sent Amazon river tributaries to the lowest level in over a century, according to a note sent to clients on Thursday by shipping services provider Serveporto.”
“Historic Drought to Get Worse in Brazil’s Amazon, Scientist Says.
“No precipitation is expected for the immediate horizon in northern Brazil even though the rainy season normally starts in late September or early October, atmospheric physicist Paulo Artaxo said in an interview… The climate “has already changed. Most countries are not prepared to deal with the rise of extreme climate events.””
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/historic-drought-worse-brazil-amazon-165355282.html
“BRAZIL HAD ITS HIGHEST RELIABLE TEMPERATURE IN CLIMATIC HISTORY: 44.2C [111.6F] Cuiaba yesterday.
“See a list of the historic highest temperatures in Brazilian climatic history including the dubious/wrong/reliable ones. Previous was 44.1C at Coxim.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715339094052557174
“Drought hitting Chaco region concerns Paraguayan authorities.
“Paraguayan authorities expressed their concern Thursday given the dramatic drought causing social, economic, and environmental devastation in the region of Chaco, which is also affecting parts of neighboring Bolivia, it was reported.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2023/10/20/drought-hitting-chaco-region-concerns-paraguayan-authorities
“Historic heat in Bolivia, records were smashed with huge margins: ALL TIME: 43.7 [111.7F] San Jose; 41.7 San Joaquin; 41.5 Ascension de Guarayos; 41.1 San Borja; 40.6 Magdalena… MONTHLY: 43.2 San Matias; 39.6 Ribertalta.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715125467798176195
“Worsening drought in Argentina’s soybean growing areas is reverberating onto US markets, pushing US soybean meal exports to record highs and boosting prices.
“Argentina is normally the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, but drought forced the country to cede that role to neighboring Brazil in the just-ended 2022/23 crop year. Now drought is again damaging prospects…”
“Atlantic hurricanes strengthening faster due to climate change, study finds.
“”This work shows that the rates at which hurricanes strengthen, and the frequency with which they transition from relatively weak storms into major hurricanes, has significantly increased in just the last 50 years,” said author Andra Garner, of Rowan University in the United States.”
“The second red “danger to life” weather alert in a week has taken effect in eastern parts of Scotland, with torrential rain and high winds forecast across the UK.
“Forecasters say another 70-100mm (4ins) of rain could fall on Saturday in parts of Angus and Aberdeenshire already hit by severe flooding. Three people have died since Thursday, when Storm Babet first took hold.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67175318
“This is the dramatic moment a bus is swept away in a flooded French river after huge rainfall from Storm Aline – as northern Europe faces a battering from Storm Babet.
“Gale-force winds and floods struck several countries in northern Europe as the region endured more heavy rain on Friday that forecasters say will continue into the weekend.”
“Storm Babet leaves trail of destruction across Portugal…
“[Babet] left behind a trail of destruction across Portugal as it developed out in the Atlantic. Strong winds and torrential rain on Monday night into Tuesday resulted in flooding, with streets swamped underwater and the drainage system at Faro airport in south Portugal unable to cope under the deluge.”
“The skies over Casciana Terme [Tuscany, Italy] unleashed a deluge, with 36 mm [1.4 inches] of rain falling in just 15 minutes, transforming streets into rivers and wreaking havoc on the area…
“This storm is the fortieth ‘water bomb’ to have struck Tuscany in 2023… The agricultural sector has been heavily impacted, with the harvest of various crops… being affected.”
“At 3am lt (UTC +2) temperatures are as high as 32C [89.6F] in Sicily at Torregrotta and 31.8C at Palermo Observatory. Only late October 1999 had such conditions.
“But the really worse will be in the Balkans where sirocco will drive temperatures at totally unprecedented levels. Map by SIAS.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715177197818781969
“Extraordinary warm spell in Europe. 30.3 [86.5F] in HUNGARY Latest 30C in climatic history, 2 weeks later than the previous latest.
“Up to 32/33C in Bulgaria, Albania and Serbia. Exceptional warmth in Austria and several monthly records broken. See list of records below.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715437002651242661
“Burkina Faso’s health ministry has declared a dengue fever epidemic amid the deadliest outbreak in years in which more than 200 people have died and new cases are rising sharply.
“There have been 50,478 suspected cases and 214 deaths of the mosquito-borne illness this year, the ministry said in a statement on Wednesday…”
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dengue-fever-kills-hundreds-burkina-faso-cases-spike-2023-10-19
“Türkiye’s Bodrum faces water scarcity as drought hits dams.
“Bodrum, Türkiye’s popular tourist destination, is grappling with water scarcity due to the closure of two dams caused by a severe drought. The Municipality of Bodrum has initiated water supply through tankers to meet the needs of its residents.”
https://www.dailysabah.com/turkiye/turkiyes-bodrum-faces-water-scarcity-as-drought-hits-dams/news
“Migrant workers toil in perilous heat to prepare for Cop28 climate talks in UAE…
“FairSquare, a human rights research and advocacy group, obtained evidence of more than a dozen migrant workers from Africa and Asia labouring outside at three Cop28 sites in early September as temperatures hit 42C (107F) in Dubai – the most populous city in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/cop28-migrant-workers-uae-heat-climate-crisis
“Climate Change’s Hidden Toll: Coral Bleaching at Record Depths in the Indian Ocean…
“Scientists have discovered the deepest known evidence of coral reef bleaching, more than 90 meters (300 feet) below the surface of the Indian Ocean… scientists say it serves as a stark warning of the harm caused in our ocean by rising ocean temperatures, and also of the hidden damage being caused throughout the natural world as a result of climate change.”
“India to declare dead 79 people missing in Himalayan lake floods…
“As climate change warms high mountain regions, many communities face the risk of dangerous glacial lake outburst floods. Lakes holding water from melted glaciers can brim over and burst, sending torrents rushing down mountain valleys. More than 200 such lakes now pose a high hazard to Himalayan communities…”
“Historic rainstorm! Typhoon Sanba has stalled in southern Guangxi since yesterday.
“The rainfall at Yaping in Beihai has reached 780.4mm/24 h [over 30 inches], breaking the record for Guangxi Province and the record for October in mainland China (excluding Hainan)!”
https://twitter.com/yangyubin1998/status/1715219085271990762
“‘Unprecedented’ cyclone could form in the Coral Sea next week, Bureau of Meteorology confirms…
“The Bureau of Meteorology is closely monitoring a storm system which could turn into a tropical cyclone off the Queensland coast early next week… A cyclone has not formed in the Coral Sea during October since reliable records began in the 1970s, according to the Bureau.”
“NSW floods: just 11% of applications approved for buybacks and no homes retrofitted nearly 20 months on.
“Only one in 10 flood-affected homeowners in the New South Wales northern rivers who applied for assistance have received a guarantee their house will be bought by the government, and not a single person has had their home retrofitted or raised.”
“More extreme heat in Australia: Today the temperature reached 44.1C at Mardie, the first 44C of the season.
“Monthly record broken at Meriddin with 39.5C. Tomorrow even hotter with exceptional heat and widespread records and possible 45C [113F].”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1715305973399609693
“The amount of dust in the world’s air worsened in 2022, the United Nations said on Thursday, as it called for more research into how climate change may increase sandstorm hotspots…
““Every year, around 2,000 million tonnes of dust enters the atmosphere, darkening skies and harming air quality in regions that can be thousands of kilometres away, and affecting economies, ecosystems, weather and climate,” the report said.”
https://www.macaubusiness.com/dust-in-the-air-worsened-in-2022-un/
“With Record-breaking Temperatures During Fashion Month [New York], Naked Dressing Is Here to Stay.
“Naked dressing is here to stay, both for climate and style purposes, according to the spring 2024 runways. To combat record-breaking temperatures at New York Fashion Week, many designers from Dion Lee to Jason Wu played with sheer fashions…”
https://wwd.com/fashion-news/fashion-trends/naked-dressing-is-here-to-stay-spring-1235884954/
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Thank you, Justin….this is where we have our priorities
The U.S. Is Spending a Fortune on War and a Pittance on the Climate Crisis
While the U.S. sends tens of billions of dollars to Israel and Ukraine, countries in the global south are left pleading for pennies.
https://newrepublic.com/article/176354/us-spending-israel-ukraine-war-climate-crisis
The $3.8 billion of military aid that the U.S. furnishes to Israel each year well outpaces America’s initial $3 billion commitment to the Global Climate Fund. So far, it has given just $2 billion.
The administration has struck a very different tone on climate finance. There is “not enough money in any country in the world to actually solve this problem,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told reporters during last year’s U.N. climate talks in Egypt. “We’re not going to get that kind of money out of any country,” he argued in a separate interview that fall with Bill McKibben. “I was convinced, and I remain convinced, no government is going to solve this problem,” Kerry told an international finance conference in Washington the year before that.
“The cognitive dissonance is unbelievable,” Wu added. “The fact that we can spend billions of dollars on war machines and we have to fight tooth and nail for every few million dollars for climate finance is just an insult. It’d be nice if one of those wars that we were fighting was a war on climate change.”
final hours of negotiations this week, the U.S. continued to insist that the fund be housed within the World Bank. Developing countries have pushed for it instead to be constituted as an independent body like the already established Global Climate Fund, which is housed within the UNFCCC. The U.S. just happens to be the largest shareholder in the World Bank, where overall decision-making power is determined by financial contribution. The Global Climate Fund is governed by a 24-person board, composed of an equal number of representatives from developing and developed countries. As part of a long-standing “gentleman’s agreement,” the U.S. is allowed to pick the head of the World Bank, while the European Union selects the head of the International Monetary Fund. The World Bank’s climate finance has also been delivered primarily as loans, which threaten to add to the enormous debt burdens facing many climate-vulnerable countries
The U.S. really wants this to be in the World Bank because the U.S. will have more control,” Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid USA, who also heads the group’s international climate justice work, told me over the phone from Egypt. “The U.S. has outsized influence in the World Bank. The U.S. does not like the Global Climate Fund because it is democratically governed and the U.S. can’t control what happens to the money once it goes in there.”
It’s all about what pocket the money goes into….
These disputes a foretaste of what we can expect at COP28, apparently:
“The faultlines tended to fall between wealthier EU members seeking rapid climate action, and poorer economies concerned about the cost of quitting fossil fuels.”
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-climate-divisions-give-foretaste-fight-looming-cop28-2023-10-18
I wonder if anyone else was struck by the irony in yesterday’s economic thread of protestors in rich countries demanding that we “just stop oil”, whilst in the poorer countries they are protesting because they can’t afford enough of it!
Meanwhile, thank goodness we have Dr Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC, to remind us that we need to protect the Arctic from climate change. It had totally slipped our minds.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/climate/cop28/2023/10/20/dr-sultan-al-jaber-calls-for-world-to-protect-arctic-from-climate-change/
All right, you are really starting to test my patience, PanO.
We all just wanna get through life without thinking ourselves as fuckheads just for being born into this beyond-awful species, and here ya go with day after day detail on just how fuckin’ bad life is getting across the globe, and here you come up with this “3 billion less songbirds since the 1970s” horseshit.
Thank you science, for coming up with another way to ruin my day. How am I supposed to order anything on Amazon Prime with its phallic imagery if I have to think of myself as Mr. songbird-killer?
(Sort-of sarcasm alert – every one of PanOs devoted readers finds ways to supersede the cavalcade of recited, documented human-destroyed ecosystems and life. We drink this in, and then piss it out later. C’est la Guerre.)
““3 billion less songbirds since the 1970s”.”
Yes, that stat is very bleak… I am googling now to look at Amazon Prime and figure what about its imagery is phallic. Are we talking about that curved arrow thingy? 😂
BEZOS and his stupid phallic rockets ev’where!
All us of us in the west have been subject to endless Peyroni’s disease medication adverts with the banana curved thingy, so who could not be confronted with more o’ the same from goddam Bezos, now everywhere on US highways?
pardon me for being so plain, but we could well do without your fouling of the comments here, this world is polluted enough
We we are born into a world we cannot control and our slaves to its systems.
So few of us see through it, even less with any real ability to tweak our actions. It’s on a trajectory we can’t stop only prepare for and potentially mitigate the consequences.
Most will keep on doing what they are doing until climate consequences force then to stop.
Most people hate change, even if they are miserable.
I’ve finally been able to participate more in this world, because I’ve accepted we as a species will follow the worn path of least resistance as it leads us off a cliff.
It’ll be a sight to behold when it really breaks through and starts to collapse industry.
At least we get to see it! What a time to be alive.
Here in North Carolina, USA we should have first frost mid month but I don’t see any signs of it in the forecast for the rest of the month. Plus we have had next to no rain for almost two months.
Also, it seems to me that the underlying irony of the Gaza war is that before long NOBODY will be able to live in the Middle East due to water scarcity and heat.
Thanks to Panopticon as always for his major contribution to KEEPING IT REAL.
The high in the mountains here was 76F against an average high of 60 yesterday.
That sounds nuts.
It occurred to me that I didn’t report the interesting part. The average low is 28F, and we had an average low. That is a 50F temperature swing for a 24 hour period. That size temperature swing doesn’t happen on planets with atmospheres 🙁 (unless it is super dry).
We had a nice spring with pretty much normal precipitation … just a short reprieve.
Here in NH we have yet to have a frost, which typically happens in late September. Also our foliage was a big fat dud this year, basically trees turned brown and crinkled up and fell off. Also our foliage season was very late this year.
I just spent 4 days in Montreal Canada and there foliage season was just getting started! It was 10 degrees warmer there than 5 hours south in NH.
Mosquitos were still out as of a week ago. Dengue fever I’m sure will be in our future.
We have the most gorgeous still and sunny day here in the Hebrides. It’s surreal knowing that most of the UK, including much of Scotland, is still getting an absolute pasting from Storm Babet.
It’s almost comical, if it wasn’t so sad to fight over an area of land that will be basically inhospitable in the decades to come.
It’s going to be difficult and expensive to live in those areas in the near future and practically impossible 100 years on.
What in the world are you fighting for? There is no future there.
“It’s almost comical, if it wasn’t so sad to fight over an area of land that will be basically inhospitable in the decades to come.”
Natasha, I veer between finding it tragic and comic. It is hard not to feel as if we are the butt of some cosmic joke.
Without regard to whether anyone is interested, I had another thought about the Luke Gromen interview that Rain posted yesterday. Luke said that the crazy debt that every country has will be inflated away over the next several DECADES. LOL.
His information is incomplete because he must be so highly specialized to be such a complete expert at economics. If we fold into his analysis the environmental issues, what do we see? I think the debt/deficits will cause inflation, and an inability for western governments to borrow more money. But, at the same time food insecurity and other environmental effects will come into play making the economic reality more of a stagflation problem. And that stagflation will continue forever.
This interview with Michael Hudson contains an interesting insight into the currently building war in and around Israel.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/russia-china-unite-against-us-empire.html
Regarding the provision of weapons and the creation of anti-western terrorist organization by the US (I did, but) we mustn’t forget ISIS which was created by the US from whole cloth to be the “moderate” opposition to the Syrian government.
Rain said, “His explanation of how the different systems operate make so much more sense. To me anyway.”
I agree, he does come off as a Russia/China cheerleader sometimes, but I think that is a matter of phrasing more than a bias in his selection of “facts”.
Pintada wrote:
“This interview with Michael Hudson contains an interesting insight into the currently building war in and around Israel.”
Thanks Pin, Ive just spent far too much of my sleep time falling down the rabbit holes, or rabbit warren of posts, including the comments sections 🙂
I find Hudsons thoughts on China’s economy answering my personal doubts on the MSM narrative of its economy stalling due to the real estate bubbles, which Ive been reading all year. I often would think, If it was really as bad as all that, why hasnt it had bigger impact? As Hudson says, China is still doing much better than Western countries, still maintaining positive growth. His explanation of how the different systems operate make so much more sense. To me anyway.
Insights on the near middle-east geopolitics, blew me away… it all comes back to energy, oil etc. I also enjoyed many of the commentariat on military capabilities, assets etc of the various players.
I didnt know Putin announced while visiting China, he had moved kinzhals into the Black sea. One of the commenters mentioned that Russia had not used its best weaponry in Ukraine, seem comfortable with a slow attrition. If anyone is losing war machinery and ammunition, its Ukraine and NATO countries depleting inventories, not Russia. I have often thought much of the war in Ukraine has been fought as a WW1 type of war, so many trenches!
Anyway, thanks again Pin 🙂
Cereal crops such as wheat are sensitive to climate change. Many studies show that their yield decreases as temperatures rise and extreme weather events increase.
A team led by agricultural scientist Prof. Dr. Tsu-Wei Chen from the Humboldt-Universität zuBerlin has developed a new statistical method with which the researchers have been able to demonstrate that there are certain time windows in the life cycle of plants during which environmental variables, such as temperatures or precipitation, have a particularly large influence on later yields.
How high the yield losses are in unfavorable environmental conditions also depends on the genetic make-up of individual cultivars. These findings can, therefore, provide important insights for the future breeding of stress-resistant wheat cultivars. The researchers published their results in Nature Plants.
Climate change is altering cultivation conditions and is already leading to crop failures
Winter wheat is one of the most important crops worldwide and is therefore crucial for food security. There are many factors that determine how large the harvest is at the end, such as the temperature and rainfall levels, the quality of the soil, the type of cultivation, or the cultivar used. Climate change is changing cultivation conditions and is already leading to major crop failures. Farmers have to adapt to this and need new solutions.
“It is already known that winter wheat is very sensitive to high temperatures during the flowering season, from around the end of May to the beginning of June,” explains Tsu-Wei Chen. If temperatures increase to over 30 degrees Celsius during this period, the fertilization rate drops rapidly as the pollen gets damaged.
The plant then forms only a few kernels, and the yield remains low. During the life cycle of the wheat plant, there are very many of these special time windows in which it reacts sensitively to various environmental influences. It is difficult to investigate the interaction of environment, genotype and developmental phase during these time windows.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-insights-crop-climate.amp
Everything will be documented in our demise….how thoughtful
I’m going to do nothing but bitch, moan & complain & wonder why someone doesn’t do something. I don’t know about karma but consequences for overpopulation appear to be real.
This can’t be said enough: “Your children aren’t special.” More children make more trash.
One can argue about AGW,weather weirding, NTHE but this is in the Baboon Brains face,an argument one can’t win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ9I3d0JX5c
TR,
That was really a smutty video. I hope that your numerous cumberson children did not have to see it.
Smutty video for a smutty species. 😉
For some light Sunday reading. If you have debt, or money in stocks, or bonds or are just interested in economics like me, this is an interesting article. Dr. Morgan considers it a must read.
https://ellenbrown.com/2023/10/03/the-great-taking-how-they-plan-to-own-it-all/
The issue:
“The derivatives bubble has been estimated to exceed one quadrillion dollars (a quadrillion is 1,000 trillion). The entire GDP of the world is estimated at $105 trillion, or 10% of one quadrillion; and the collective wealth of the world is an estimated $360 trillion. Clearly, there is not enough collateral anywhere to satisfy all the derivative claims. The majority of derivatives now involve interest rate swaps, and interest rates have shot up. The bubble looks ready to pop.”
The e-book is here:
https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/taking-june21-web.pdf
Down in the comments at Dr. Morgans site, someone really went to the ultimate crux of why this matters. Russia and China are not involved in this mess (the derivatives crisis) at all.
Lou, just a heads up that posts with more than one link automatically get caught in moderation.
I don’t have time to find this comment on Dr Morgan’s site but, even if they were immune to first order impacts (and I don’t believe China is; Russia may be), both nations would suffer disastrous second order repercussions from a collapse of the global derivatives bubble.
The effects on availability of credit, investor confidence, commodity prices and global commerce and growth generally would be catastrophic. It could even see us suffering a rapid and pretty much total collapse of the global economy, as per David Korowicz’s Trade Off paper.
“The much anticipated Swap Connect scheme launched in Hong Kong on Monday, giving global investors their first access to the mainland China interbank financial derivatives market to hedge the interest-rate risks of their 3.2 trillion yuan (US$460 billion) in Chinese bond holdings.”
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3220546/northbound-swap-connect-china-opens-derivatives-market-global-investors-hong-kong-first-time