“An Israeli minister has told troops massing at the border that they will soon see Gaza ‘from the inside’ sparking fears a ground invasion is imminent.
“Yoav Gallant, who is the country’s defence minister, told Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) soldiers to ‘get organised, be ready’ to move into the Palestinian territory as he vowed there would be ‘no forgiveness’ for Hamas, only it’s ‘total annihilation’.”
“Gaza conflict spills into the West Bank as settler attacks and clashes leave dozens of Palestinians dead.
“Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s spokesperson, said last week that the military was on high alert in the occupied territory, adding it was preparing to thwart any potential attacks.”
“Jordan fears ‘the worst is coming’ in Gaza war…
“”All the indications are that the worst is coming.. The catastrophe will have painful consequences in coming periods,” Safadi said, adding that diplomatic efforts were not yielding any results in ending the conflict.”
“The US, Britain and Germany called on their citizens to leave Lebanon on Thursday amid growing fears that Israel’s war with Hamas will escalate into a regional conflict.
“The embassies in Beirut issued their warning after shelling intensified between northern Israel and southern Lebanon, the stronghold of Tehran’s ally Hizbollah.”
“Much of the world’s gas comes from Hamas headquarters. This war could affect us all…
“The questions surrounding Qatar arise chiefly from its strong ties to both Hamas and Iran, which serves as Hamas’s major funder and sponsor. Hamas maintains its head office in Qatar’s capital city of Doha and receives a good deal of its funding from the Qatari government.”
“Iran called for an oil embargo against Israel over its air strikes on Gaza, causing oil futures to rise.
“Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian called for an “an immediate and complete embargo on the Zionist regime by Islamic countries, an oil embargo against the regime,” according to a ministry statement on Telegram. He also urged Muslim countries to expel Israeli ambassadors.”
“Drone Attacks Syrian Gas Field as Israel Conflict Escalates.
“In reports unconfirmed by the U.S. military, Syrian opposition figures claim that a possible Iran-backed group in Syria launched a drone attack on an oil facility and a U.S. military base in the country’s eastern region, as the Hamas-Israel conflict escalates.”
“US shoots down drones targeting its troops in Iraq as regional tensions flare.
“In a recent incident, two drones attacked the al Asad airbase in western Iraq and another targeted a northern Iraqi base. While US forces intercepted and destroyed two drones, the third caused minor injuries among coalition forces.”
“Biden draws direct link between Putin and Hamas as he urges aid for Israel and Ukraine…
““Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: they both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy,” said Biden, sitting at the Resolute desk with flags, family photos, gold curtains and a darkened window behind him.”
“A relentless global bond rout is piling pain on to investors who loaded up on fixed-income assets this year as they spied the end of central banks’ cycle of interest rate rises.
“The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 5 per cent — a level not seen since before the global financial crisis — on Thursday… The sell-off across the world’s bond markets resumed this week after a brief pause as investors flocked to safe assets following the outbreak of Israel’s war with Hamas.”
“Dollar’s reserve currency status depends on U.S. controlling spending, ‘bond king’ Gundlach warns.
“”Should the Federal Reserve continue to raise rates, which may happen, or should the national debt grow, which is certain to happen, this problem will get much worse,” Gundlach said in an opinion piece. “The future of the U.S. dollar and possibly out-of-control inflation depends on getting the budget and spending under control.””
“Investors now view U.S. Treasuries as “riskier assets.”
“Losses in emerging-market stocks and bonds deepened as the rise in US TREASURY YIELDS and concern about a wider conflict in the Middle East pushed investors to UNLOAD RISKIER ASSETS.”
“The ratio of the Nasdaq to US Treasuries return is currently at a record 8.2x… even at the peak of the 2001 bubble, the largest tech bubble in history, this ratio was ~4.8x.
“In other words, the Nasdaq to US Treasuries return ratio is now 70% HIGHER than it was in 2001. It’s now also 5.5x HIGHER than it was at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. There has never been a larger gap between return in equities and US Treasuries. Something needs to give.”
“A number of U.S. banks saw continued pain in the third quarter on delinquent commercial real estate loans in their portfolios, as stress in the sector persists.
“Building owners that borrowed money to finance their properties are being squeezed by high interest rates and vacant offices as workers opt to work from home. Weak demand for offices could trigger a wave of borrowers to default on their loans and put pressure on banks and other lenders…”
“Climate activists force Fed chair Jerome Powell off stage in New York…
“At the Economic Club of New York, protesters stormed the stage holding a banner that read “Fed Is Burning: Money, Futures, Planet” and chanting “Off fossil finance!” Powell, who was on stage, briefly left the event before returning to deliver his speech as planned.”
“The co-founders of Just Stop Oil have been arrested in dawn raids ahead of an “unprecedented” series of protests in London.
“Roger Hallam, 57, and 29-year-old Indigo Rumbelow were arrested at separate addresses after officers “forced entry to their homes, searched belongings and confiscated papers”, Just Stop Oil said in a statement.”
“More English councils face bankruptcy, leaders warn, as deficits reach £4bn.
“The bleak message, set out in a letter to the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said council budgets were “under pressure like never before” because of the rapid deterioration in their finances caused by inflation and soaring demand for social care.”
“Millions of UK families could face cuts to the value of their benefits next year as ministers seek to make space for a fiscal giveaway in the run-up to the next election…
“Jeremy Hunt, chancellor, said last week that he faced “difficult decisions” in his Autumn Statement next month because of the spiralling cost of servicing government debt and fragile public finances.”
“The cost of UK state borrowing is close to a 15-year high – levels seen only twice since the global financial crash.
“The amount the UK government has to pay – the yield – to borrow money for 10 years via its benchmark 10-year bonds – known as gilts – rose to more than 4.7% on Thursday. Only twice since the 2008 crash has such a high been reached, both times in August this year.”
“UK And Germany See No Way Back To Energy Trade With Russia.
““There is no way back to energy relationship with Russia that we saw before the war. This relationship has ended,” said Miguel Berger, Germany’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom. The UK’s Minister of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Graham Stuart, echoed those comments, saying that there would be no return to the previous energy relationship with Russia for the UK either…”
“Industrial energy users push for subsidies ahead of German government meeting.
““Please take note of the increasingly dramatic economic situation of the energy-intensive industries in Germany,” the letter addressed to Scholz and his ministers reads… “the massive cutbacks in local production that can already be observed are acutely endangering jobs and locations,” the representatives of the steel, paper, chemical and glass industries, as well as trade unions, write.”
“Euro area borrowing costs rise, Italian yield hits highest in almost 11 years.
“Euro area borrowing costs were close to their highest in around a decade as investors balanced expectations for higher-for-longer rates against appetite for safe-haven assets on fears that the conflict in the Middle East might widen beyond Gaza. Bond prices move inversely to yields.”
“Bank of Japan intervenes as 10-year JGB yield hits fresh peak.
“The Bank of Japan intervened in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market on Friday as the 10-year JGB yield touched a decade high early in Asian trading, driven up by surging U.S. Treasury rates… The rise prompted the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to step in as it tries to stabilise market expectations and slow the pace of yield gains.”
“The crisis in China’s property sector deepened as Country Garden, the country’s biggest developer by sales, reportedly missed its final deadline for an interest payment on a dollar bond, putting it at risk of default.
“The company, which has about $200bn (£163bn) in liabilities and nearly $11bn in dollar-denominated offshore bonds, was due to make a $15.4m coupon repayment this week, but failed to do so…”
“Bangladeshi banks on brink of a major liquidity crunch…
“Meeting sources said other burning issues like NPL buildup, forex dearth and exchange rate-related volatility came up in the meeting where the BB governor asked the bankers to pay more attention on asset recovery, steps to bring more remittance and export proceeds.”
“No end to the Papua New Guinea fuel shortages.
“Papua New Guineans continue to face fuel shortages brought about by one of the main suppliers, Puma Energy, not having access to enough foreign exchange to pay for what it needs. More rationing is coming…”
“‘Very thin budget’: Forex shortage triggers cost-of-living crisis in Malawi…
“Since 2021, the country has been experiencing acute foreign currency shortages, a consequence of reduced exports, experts say. This has led to a scarcity of essential goods such as food, medicine, fertiliser and fuel.”
“Epra faces MPs’ wrath over rising pump prices [Kenya]…
“Kaloleni MP Paul Katana sparked the debate after demanding to know if pump prices would be reduced in the near future. “There is a huge outcry by Kenyans following the recent increase of fuel prices by as much as Sh6 per litre,” he said.”
“Fuel prices surge in Congo amidst protests and economic struggles.
“In the Republic of Congo, diesel prices have risen by 25 percent in October, marking another increase following a hike in January. Similarly, since July, the pump price of gasoline has also surged by 25 percent. Authorities in Brazzaville attribute the soaring fuel prices to recommendations made by the International Monetary Fund.”
“Fuel Scarcity Hits Lagos, Abuja [Nigeria] as Pump Price Crosses N600…
“Our correspondents observed long queues at the few stations still dispensing fuel in Lagos on Thursday, while some major outlets belonging to NNPC have suspended sales. Independent marketers selling petrol have increased prices between N600-N650, up from N568-N585 previously.”
“Lithium Price Crash Could Trigger Shortages From 2025…
“…what has really spooked the markets is looming supply coming online from China, Australia and Chile, “Supply is coming on stream faster than you can say ‘boo’. Demand remains strong but prices have been unsustainable for some time now,” analyst Dylan Kelly of Ord Minnett has told Mining.”
“The Green Power Grid Isn’t Coming… Build millions of miles of transmission lines, with Chinese materials?
“The International Energy Agency said this week that 49.7 million miles of transmission lines—enough to wrap around the planet 2,000 times—will have to be built or replaced by 2040 to achieve the climate lobby’s net-zero emissions goal. This amounts to a plan for everyone to buy more metals from coal-fired plants in China.”
“With Climate Crisis Deepening Worldwide, Third Committee [UN] Urges States to Ramp Up Environmental Legislation, Provide Funding to Hard-Hit Developing Nations.
“As the global environmental crisis inflicts despair on millions of people worldwide, States must implement and enforce stronger climate and environmental laws, the Third Committee (Social, Humanitarian and Cultural) heard today…”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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