“A new geopolitical dark age is about to shatter the West’s fatal illusions [picture is of fall of Berlin Wall, heralding what was thought to be a new era of peace and progress]…
“Every so often, an earthquake rips through history, shattering the simple stories that help us to make sense of the world…. Hamas’s unprecedented assault… may… finally dismantle some of the fundamental assumptions that have underpinned the wider West’s perception of safety, heralding a new geopolitical dark age.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/16/new-geopolitical-dark-age-to-shatter-wests-illusions/
“Global economy faces new age of volatility…
““Maybe the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades” …fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East have added to concerns for a global economy already rocked by war in Europe and still feeling the aftershocks of Covid-19… “Debt levels are at record levels and at the same time we are in this higher-for-longer interest [rate] environment. There is a lot . . . that could go wrong” said Gita Gopinath, deputy head of the IMF.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e8d192d9-e927-4958-97a4-e3ad4e927e27
“The world holds its breath: Israel-Palestine war dramatically escalates after hundreds die in Gaza hospital strike as Iran warns ‘time is up’ and Hezbollah calls for ‘day of rage’ – hours before Biden flies in to Tel Aviv…
“The hospital strike has sparked global anger, with Iran – Israel’s foe – declaring last night warning that the ‘time is up’ for the country and Tehran-backed terror group Hezbollah calling for a ‘day of rage’. ”
“Violent protests erupt across Middle East after Gaza hospital strike.
“US embassy in Lebanon is targeted with fire attack as angry demonstrations spread to Turkey, the West Bank and Tunisia… In Iran, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the British and French embassies in the early hours of Wednesday morning, chanting “death to France and England”.”
“Why has Jordan cancelled Biden visit after Israel bombing of Gaza hospital?
“It was to be a centrepiece of United States President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East on Wednesday: a trip to Jordan to meet a range of Arab leaders amid Israel’s incessant bombing of the Gaza Strip. But on Tuesday, Jordan cancelled that summit…”
“China and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions.
“China and Russia have hardened their positions towards the conflict in Gaza in recent days, as the war between Israel and Hamas aggravates existing geopolitical tensions and underscores the growing gulf between the cold war allies and western powers such as the US, UK and France.”
“Biden to cut China off from more Nvidia chips, expand curbs to more countries.
“The Biden administration said on Tuesday it plans to halt shipments to China of more advanced artificial intelligence chips designed by Nvidia and others, part of a suite of measures aimed at stopping Beijing from getting cutting-edge U.S. technologies to strengthen its military.”
“US bond market is losing its strategic footing.
“it’s important to note that thee resilience of US Treasuries should not be taken for granted. No matter how you look at it, the world’s most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination.”
https://www.ft.com/content/40d9f352-82ed-4e4d-a53b-5f9404613d4a
“President Joe Biden sold off nearly half the federal government’s oil reserve last year to stanch rising fuel prices after Russia invaded Ukraine.
“Republicans now argue that the drawdown has left the country vulnerable to a disruption of global oil supplies as violence between Israel and Hamas threatens regional conflict… Yet the country remains part of a global oil market — and even a fully stocked oil reserve wouldn’t fully insulate the nation from price shocks.”
“U.S. to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil for freer presidential election…
“If the deal is signed, the U.S. government is prepared to announce the lifting of certain oil sanctions against Venezuela, the two people said. The sanctions relief could include a general license for Venezuela’s state-owned oil agency to resume business with the United States and other countries.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/16/venezuela-us-sanctions-deal/
“Environmentalists are gearing up for their next giant climate fight: They want to force a showdown with the Biden administration over the massive expansion of U.S. natural gas exports.
“Less than a decade ago, U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas — LNG for short — didn’t exist. Now they are growing so rapidly that the United States last year became the world’s largest gas exporter.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/17/natural-gas-exports-climate-activists/
“Why Biden’s multibillion-dollar bet on hydrogen energy is such a big deal.
“Clean hydrogen can be a lot dirtier than it seems, especially when the fossil fuel industry gets involved. One of the biggest bets of the Biden administration is that clean hydrogen will help the United States reach its climate goals, revitalize domestic manufacturing, and bolster a shrinking fossil fuel workforce. That’s a lot riding on an industry that barely exists today.”
https://www.vox.com/climate/23900109/hydrogen-green-energy-hubs-biden
“Hydrogen for home heating should be ruled out, infrastructure adviser says [UK]…
““We do not see any role for hydrogen in the future of home heating,” said Nick Winser, NIC commissioner, arguing it was “simply not ready at scale” and risked being an inefficient use of green electricity… The intervention comes as the government grapples with the dilemma of how to reach the UK’s 2050 net zero goal.”
https://www.ft.com/content/caa5945b-5176-43f1-a538-820bb658b650
“The UK is making a series of changes to its climate finance definitions as a way to meet its target to spend £11.6bn over five years in the developing world to help combat the climate crisis, Andrew Mitchell, the development minister, has said…
“Mitchell defended himself from the charge of a “sleight of hand” by describing the changes as “clarifications and not definitional changes.”
“The UK economy is in a “horrible fiscal bind” as it heads for recession and with no room to cut taxes or increase public spending amid mounting political pressure on the Chancellor to do so, according to a report.
“The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned in its latest Green Budget that Britain will slump into a “moderate” recession in the first half of 2024 as borrowing costs stay elevated.”
“Humza Yousaf promises first ever Scottish bond in bid to revive independence.
“Scotland will borrow money from investors independently for the first time, Humza Yousaf has pledged, as the Scottish National Party seeks to reinvigorate the case for independence. The First Minister said Holyrood would sell the first ever Scottish bond by 2026…”
“An undersea telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia has been damaged, the Swedish government has said, the second such incident to be reported in the region in a week.
“Sweden’s civil defence minister, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, said the damage to the cable appeared to have happened at around the same time as an undersea gas pipeline…”
“Middle East crisis casts shadow over ECB meeting.
“The Israel-Hamas war is creating new challenges for Europe’s economy, from energy market disruption to an influx of refugees, Greece’s central bank governor has warned. Yannis Stournaras told the Financial Times that the turmoil in the Middle East shifted the balance against any further tightening of monetary policy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4864baf3-2dd7-4992-9822-3f6dcfbf4c58
“Some of lost European gas demand may be gone for good – Vitol CEO…
“Some analysts say the price of reduced energy use could be a permanent contraction of industrial activity. Europe’s biggest economy Germany is expected to shrink this quarter as industry is in recession, according to the country’s central bank.”
“Germany Fires Up Extra Coal Unit to Help in Cold Snap…
“Last year’s historic energy crisis forced Germany to temporarily increase its reliance on the dirty fuel after supplies of Russian pipeline gas were shut off. While that poses a setback for the government’s plans to curb harmful emissions, it’s part of its strategy to contain price increases for consumers during the heating season.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-fires-coal-plant-winter-161805049.html
“Germany caves in to French demands over EU electricity market reform.
“Germany has given leeway for France to use state subsidies to fund its nuclear power plants, unblocking a long-stalled reform of the EU electricity market in the face of vast state aid regimes in China and the US.”
https://www.ft.com/content/73629c7f-d8a8-4d31-9487-02301c9fe894
“Dutch Energy Minister Admits That Wind Power Agenda Is Pricier Than Anticipated…
“In a surprising announcement, Dutch Minister of Climate and Energy, Rob Jetten, has informed the market, government, and parliament that the costs of offshore wind projects in the North Sea will be significantly higher than previously assessed. Minister Jetten… has also indicated that consumers should expect substantially higher electricity prices than initially anticipated.”
“Exclusive: China instructs banks to roll over local government debt – sources.
“China has instructed state-owned banks to roll over existing local government debt with longer-term loans at lower interest rates, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as part of Beijing’s efforts to reduce local debt risks in a faltering economy.”
“Former Bank of China boss arrested on corruption charges…
“China has arrested the former head of one of the country’s largest commercial banks on charges of accepting bribes and illegally granting loans, amid a two-year anti-corruption drive targeting the financial sector… President Xi Jinping has made fighting corruption a key part of his political project as he has cemented his position as paramount leader.”
“In Guatemala, Protests Have Brought Economic Life to a Halt.
“Millions of bananas are rotting in containers across Guatemala as the region’s largest economy grinds to a halt. Over the past 16 days, protests have left millions of Guatemalans confined to their homes, while the country runs out of food, fuel, and water.”
https://reason.com/2023/10/17/in-guatemala-protests-have-brought-economic-life-to-a-halt/
“Tunisia’s economy minister sacked amid unprecedented financial crisis.
“Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked the economy minister on Tuesday and appointed the finance minister to the role on an interim basis, the presidency announced without giving any explanation.”
https://north-africa.com/tunisias-economy-minister-sacked-amid-unprecedented-financial-crisis/
“Pakistan’s ailing national carrier cancels 14 flights amid fuel shortage.
“Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) on Tuesday canceled 14 international and domestic flights due to fuel shortages after state-owned Pakistan State Oil (PSO) canceled supply over unpaid dues, a spokesman for the national carrier said.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2392726/pakistan
“Papua New Guinea: Fuel rationing measures ongoing nationwide as of Oct. 18…
“Puma Energy is restricting the distribution of fuel and rationing supplies in Papua New Guinea as of Oct. 18. The company stated that ongoing foreign exchange shortages are delaying payments for fuel. The duration of the rationing measures remains unclear.”
“World lacks enough LNG for energy transition, key trader says…
““Announced projects in the world still won’t make up for the supply needed when considering the energy transition that will take several decades,” said Kenichi Hori, president of Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co., in an interview in Tokyo last week. Hori echoed major exporters including Chevron and Shell…”
“Global electricity grid must be upgraded urgently to hit climate goals, says IEA…
“Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, has warned that the equivalent of the entire global electricity grid – 80 million km of grid – needs to be added or refurbished by 2040 to hit climate targets and ensure reliable power supplies. Global investment in energy grids needs to double to more than $600bn (£492bn) a year…”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/17/global-electricity-grid-climate-iea
“Investment in climate technology has fallen by 40% in the last year, according to a report from PwC.
“The financial services giant’s State of Climate Tech report for 2023 analysed more than 8,000 climate tech start-ups and more than 32,000 deals worth more than £400 billion.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/investment-pwc-b2430792.html
“‘No question’ that the decarbonization of shipping will contribute to inflation, says industry CEO…
““There will be an inflationary impact coming from [the] decarbonization of shipping … there is no question of it,” Bertrand Chen, CEO of the Global Shipping Business Network, told CNBC’s East Tech West conference in the Nansha district of Guangzhou, China.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/shipping-going-green-will-add-to-inflation-no-question-says-ceo.html
“Central bankers fear energy, inflation shocks in chaotic climate transition.
“All this pushes central banks into uncharted waters, profoundly challenging their mandate to manage systemic risk, ensure price stability, and keep inflation low. Unlike previous historical monetary and economic shocks, there is no precedent for climate risk.”
“As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing?
“Record debts, high interest rates, the costs of climate change, health and pension spending as populations age and fractious politics are stoking fears of a financial market crisis in big developed economies. A surge in government borrowing costs has put high debt in the spotlight…”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-debt-worries-mount-is-another-crisis-brewing-2023-10-16/
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Calm before storm(s).
Wind farms failing, capex investment in “green” tech falling, debt ceilings like glass ceilings ready to shatter? war drums drumming…
https://youtu.be/aGaLizO5UC4?si=Y1-8EYlVZg9DPu1M
Thanks, Rain. That’s a nice track – and apposite! Even Guatemala gets a mention:
Here comes the helicopter, second time today
Everybody scatters and hopes it goes away
How many kids they’ve murdered only God can say, hey
If I had a rocket launcher, if I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher, I’d make somebody pay
I don’t believe in guarded borders and I don’t believe in hate
I don’t believe in generals or their stinking torture states
And when I talk with the survivors of things too sickening to relate
If I had a rocket launcher, if I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher, I would retaliate
On the Rio Lacantun, one hundred thousand wait
To fall down from starvation, or some less humane fate
Cry for Guatemala, with a corpse in every gate
If I had a rocket launcher, if I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher, I would not hesitate
I want to raise every voice, at least I’ve got to try
Every time I think about it water rises to my eyes
Situation desperate, echoes of the victims cry
If I had a rocket launcher, if I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher, some son of a bitch would die
Whilst we’re in a musical mood, does anyone remember this 1990 track by the German band, Scorpions? It perfectly embodies the spirit of (unfortunately naive) optimism that prevailed after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as mentioned in the first of today’s articles:
“I follow the Moskva down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change
An August summer night, soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of change
“The world is closing in
And did you ever think
That we could be so close like brothers?
The future’s in the air, I can feel it everywhere
I’m blowing with the wind of change…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohOtDA3dTAA
“..Thanks, Rain. That’s a nice track – and apposite! Even Guatemala gets a mention…”
I still have several of these albums on their original vinyl, upgraded to cassette tapes and eventually CDs LOL
I was boxing up my old vinyl LPs today, to take to the record store who try to sell them, with all proceeds going to the RSPCA. and was singing along with the lyrics, knew them off by heart, and funny how they come straight back…
History doesnt always repeat, but it often rhymes…
Sorry, though “If I had a Rocket Launcher” is good too, I meant this Bruce Cockburn tune “And They Call it Democracy”
Im showing my age *blush*… music from my youth, during the Central American “troubles” of the late 70s/early 80s era… and also recessions, Thatcher/Reagans monetarist policies etc…
https://youtu.be/1rbgp7TMDAM?si=MeCQCNWhFDSs-plS
Call It Democracy
[Verse 1]
Padded with power here they come
International loan sharks backed by the guns
Of market hungry military profiteers
Whose word is a swamp and whose brow is smeared
With the blood of the poor
[Verse 2]
Who rob life of its quality
Who render rage a necessity
By turning countries into labour camps
Modern slavers in drag as champions of freedom
[Verse 3]
Sinister cynical instrument
Who makes the gun into a sacrament—
The only response to the deification
Of tyranny by so-called “developed” nations’
Idolatry of ideology
[Verse 4]
North south east west
Kill the best and buy the rest
It’s just spend a buck to make a buck
You don’t really give a flying fuck
About the people in misery
[Bridge]
IMF dirty MF
Takes away everything it can get
Always making certain that there’s one thing left
Keep them on the hook, with insupportable debt
[Verse 5]
You see the paid-off local bottom feeders
Passing themselves off as leaders
Kiss the ladies, shake hands with the fellows
And it’s open for business like a cheap bordello
[Chorus]
And they call it democracy
And they call it democracy
And they call it democracy
And they call it democracy
[Verse 6]
You see the loaded eyes of the children too
Trying to make the best of it the way kids do
One day you’re gonna rise from your habitual feast
To find yourself staring down the throat of the beast
They call the revolution
[Bridge]
IMF dirty MF
Takes away everything it can get
Always making certain that there’s one thing left
Keep them on the hook of insupportable debt
He makes some fair points about the exploitation of poorer nations by the wealthy ones. That history is of course an important ingredient in the witch’s brew of animosity and resentment now simmering in the “Global South” towards the West, with worsening growth-constraints adding fuel to the fire.
Uganda president declares ban on used clothing imports from the West, says items are coming from dead people
Africa, where many residents perceive Western fashion as superior, receive secondhand clothing from Americans, Europeans
Associated Press
Trade authorities have not yet enforced the president’s order, which needs to be backed by a legal measure such as an executive order.
Other African governments also are trying to stop the shipments, saying the business amounts to dumping and undermines the growth of local textile industries. The East African Community trade bloc — consisting of Burundi, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda — has recommended banning imports of used apparel since 2016. However, member states have not enforced it at the same pace amid pressure from Washington.
In Uganda, the president’s order has spread panic among traders, for whom such a ban, if implemented, spells disaster. They hawk used clothes in scores of large open-air markets across the country of 45 million people, at roadside stands and even in shops in malls where it’s possible to buy secondhand clothes marketed as new.
These clothes have been discarded by Europeans and Americans, then shipped to African countries by middlemen. It’s a multimillion-dollar business, with some two-thirds of people in seven countries in East Africa having “purchased at least a portion of their clothes from the secondhand clothing market,” according to a 2017 U.S. Agency for International Development study, the most recent with such details
There are numerous dropoff bins around here for used clothing..
Knew in the back of my mind they were bing sent either to South America or Africa…
Yep, we import clothing from overseas from sweat shops for a clothing and afterwards dump them to third world countries and destroy their local industries
Chile is Latin America’s major hub for second-hand clothing, generating significant environmental problems there:
“A mountain of discarded clothing, including Christmas sweaters and ski boots, cuts a strange sight in Chile’s Atacama, the driest desert in the world, which is increasingly suffering from pollution created by fast fashion.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/11/8/chiles-desert-dumping-ground-for-fast-fashion-leftovers
the United States last year became the world’s largest gas exporter.”
there is no precedent for climate risk.”
the decarbonization of shipping will contribute to inflation
Global investment in energy grids needs to double
World lacks enough LNG for energy transition, key trader says
Fuel rationing measures ongoing nationwide as of Oct. 18…(Papua New Guinea:)
permanent contraction of industrial activity
A mashup of the clips today shows me the end is in sight.
I wish you could find an analysis of the US GDP without the spending associated with the cost of SWE cleanup and warmongering. A recent clip said the US economy is showing “surprising strength”
“… shows me the end is in sight.”
The MSM and most policy-makers are still hopelessly confused about what is possible at this point but the illusory nature of green growth and indeed the absurdity of pushing for continued growth within an increasingly fragile and depleted biosphere are becoming more and more obvious.
I’ll keep my eyes peeled for a properly candid assessment of US economic strength.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/biden-gets-zelensky-treatment-in-middle-east-as-israel-tries-to-escalate.html
I guess I pushed the wrong “Reply” button.
Carbon dioxide pollution expected to hit new record in 2023, researchers say
by Kelly MACNAMARAScientists say carbon pollution will need to be cut almost in half this decade to meet the world’s targets of limiting global warming and avoiding catastrophic climate impacts.
Global CO2 emissions should be falling by around five percent this year, said Glen Peters, research director at the CICERO climate research institute in Norway.
Instead they have continued to rise, according to his research, with current expectations that the year will see emissions up between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent.
“It would be very unlikely that emissions decline in 2023,” he told AFP.
Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that for the first time world demand for oil, gas and coal is forecast to peak this decade due to the “spectacular” growth of cleaner energy technologies and electric cars.
BUT…electric cars will NOT decrease the demand FOR GASOLINE!!!!
This was posted from Peak OIL News
An update on the peak oil theory by Prof. J. Carlos Jarillo, Founding Partner SIA
1,048 views ·
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RIcM8ZQ8J2I&t=29s
About 40 minutes and he gives Norway as an example that has saturation of electric cars in ownership and found that consumption of Petro has remained steady.
Other aspects of his talk are alarming…of course…
Never accept your mistake when commenting.
Call it poetic lyscents. 😉
Genocide – i’ve never had the opportunity to watch it in real time, and (call me naive) i really didn’t think that the US would be doing it. Indi took the time to gather the facts about the latest outrage, but it just goes on and on. It takes time to murder 2 million people the Germans took 3 or 4 years to kill 6 million, so this might take 2 years.
Some think someone will try to stop it, but I fear no one will.
Some think the US is setting up to invade Syria which sounds about right. Obviously, the empire does not send 2 battle groups anywhere to NOT kill someone.
https://indi.ca/a-war-crime-in-three-acts-the-bombing-of-a-hospital/
Finally, the killing will probably continue until the US doesn’t have the resources to continue. Luckily, there are other forces moving (no need to list the existential threats), and that day may come pretty soon.
Biden’s speech just now suggests the US is trying to de-escalate:
“Joe Biden has told Israelis not to make the “mistakes” that US did after the September 11 2001 terror attacks, as he warned its citizens not to be consumed by rage over the Hamas assault that killed more than 1,400 people… “The terrorists will not win. Freedom will win,” he declared as he announced a new $100m aid package to Gaza.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-palestine-gaza-hospital-attack-hamas-b2431540.html
The deaths & injured from the Iraq War are on George W. Bush & Republicans.The Saudis were excellent pilots. Two planes took down three buildings.
4800 servicemen died based on Republican lies.
Did you learn anything,Independent?
BTW, How’s that Brexit working out?
I don’t know which line I like the best. “You can’t handle the truth.” or “You can’t fix stupid.” 😉
In 2004 Matt Savinar published “The OilAge is Over”. ~20 years later we are completely enmeshed in the ramifications brought about by pretending that the concept of peak oil was erroneous. Funny that; as how else to explain the almost Nostradamus-like accuracy of Matt’s prognostications? … all of which were based on the constraints on oil supplies the 21’st century was to be subjected to. Every so-called energy transition has at its heart no green agenda, but how to use the other fossil fuels to substitute for oil. Right now in the USA the “build Back BIGGER” agenda of the Biden administration has less to do with anything remotely green as it has to do with the constraints on diesel production that have resulted from the light tight oil of the US : the use of diesel to transport transport fuels is prodigious in the US: switching to EV’s (which is why Tesla’s EVBig-rigs are such a big deal) drops the dependence of the transport sector on the middle distillates that can’t be produced from the output of the fracturing regime. EV’s solve that problem as fuel is delivered over hi-transmission wires. Like ethanol from food crops, the green patina is simply used as a ruse to get the political support necessary to lavish hundreds of billions of federal dollars on corporations that will then dispense the profits they make therefrom to ‘investors” in what are essentially GSE’s (government-sponsored enterprises).
We are living the Final Turning,not the Fourth Turning. What’s the solution for the damage done by unregulated capitalism?
War is great for Military Industrial Complex profits. Pay those taxes,taxpayers.
Where is the price of oil going when the Middle East is at war? I was wrong once before but I’m just waiting for Iran to force gasoline prices to soar.
Breaking news — “Sara Lee” company has gone into receivership in Australia?
Possible sale, asset stripping, or business plan restructuring (ie downsizing) etc..
and some bakery job losses?
Aawwwwwwwww…
an Aussie icon 🙁
Sara Lee’s frozen baked desserts and pastries, filling up the frozen food aisles in our supermarkets for 50+ years, famous for its ice-cream cakes, berry and apple pies, cheesecakes etc etc
Grew up with it, my own kids grew up with it, and also decades of my office workplaces,
someone nipping out at the last minute to pick up a “Sara Lee” to share with staff afternoon teas etc..
Symptom of a drop in “discretionary spending”?