“The Israel-Hamas war is a “new cloud” on the horizon that threatens to darken an already murky global economic outlook, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
“Kristalina Georgieva said severe shocks are becoming “the new normal” in an economy dominated by weak growth.”
“Israel’s military on Friday called for all civilians of Gaza City, more than 1 million people, to relocate south within 24 hours, as it amassed tanks near the Gaza Strip ahead of an expected ground invasion.
“”Now is a time for war,” Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Thursday as Israeli warplanes continued pounding Gaza in retaliation for the weekend attacks by Hamas militants that killed more than 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/now-is-time-war-says-israels-military-chief-2023-10-12/
“Israel-Hizbollah clashes prompt fears of Lebanese militia joining Hamas war.
“In the days since Hamas’ surprise assault on Israel, the Jewish state has also been fighting on another front: its northern border with Lebanon, where light artillery exchanges have killed three members of militant group Hizbollah.”
https://www.ft.com/content/213ce971-b93e-4756-8dd0-6ff163b21577
“If Israel doesn’t stop bombing Gaza, war may open on ‘other fronts,’ Iran foreign minister warns…
““In light of the continued aggression, war crimes, and siege on Gaza, opening other fronts is a real possibility,” Amirabdollahian says, speaking to journalists on his arrival.”
“After Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan eyes a strategic strip of Armenia.
“Meghri sits at a strategic crossroads that regional powers, including Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey and Russia, are competing to access — prompting fears it could soon be at the center of a new war… “I think the threat of a flare-up is very real,” said Stefan Meister, a South Caucasus expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/11/azerbaijan-armenia-karabakh-nakhchivan-corridor/
“Brace for global fallout from higher-for-longer interest rates, World Bank warns.
“The prospect that high interest rates will keep constricting the global economy is worrying World Bank officials as they look to the impact on nations nursing large debts.”
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/fallout-interest-rates-world-bank-warns
“Panicking central banks risk creating another financial meltdown…
“Financial institutions are nursing large capital losses on their bond holdings; and, much as with subprime mortgages in 2008, it is impossible to know where this could blow up the financial system. Several smaller banks and one large one, Credit Suisse, have already collapsed.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/12/panicking-central-banks-creating-financial-meltdown/
“Biden borrowing binge driving ‘unsustainable’ rise in global debts, warns IMF…
“Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, has insisted that interest payments on the country’s mammoth borrowing pile remain sustainable… The IMF said politicians around the world faced tough choices to bring debt down… Officials said: “For all countries, it is becoming hard to balance public finances.“”
“Bond-Supply Fears Reawaken.
“The Treasury market isn’t taking all the debt sales too well… again. The bond-market breather of the past few days appears to be over. Long-term yields are on the rise again after buyers were reluctant to step up for a bond auction on Thursday.”
“US inflation higher than expected in September.
“US inflation was higher than forecast in September, raising the prospect that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates following similarly robust recent data on the strength of the jobs market.”
https://www.ft.com/content/177d2346-8b74-4e98-9bd3-fd61585cc78a
“All the headlines say that inflation is now 3.7%. But, what they fail to mention is that this is building on YEARS of inflation.
“3.7% inflation is building on 8.2% in September 2022 and 5.4% in September 2021. That means that inflation since September 2021 is has been nearly 20%. Furthermore, even if the rate of inflation is falling, prices are still RISING.”
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1712484146478719423
“Consensus opinion suggests the U.S. economy is on course for a soft landing… The trouble is that the consensus often turns out to be wrong.
“In early 2007, most economists also expected a mild fallout from the U.S. housing downturn. Going further back, investors remained relatively upbeat after the stock market crash of October 1929, even as the United States teetered on the brink of depression.”
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/why-an-economic-soft-landing-may-prove-elusive-2023-10-13/
“Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs…
“It is far from over, the firm predicts… What is unusual is that the losses are accelerating outside of an economic downturn.”
“Thousands of autoworkers walk out at Ford’s largest factory as UAW escalates strike.
“The United Auto Workers union is raising the stakes against Detroit’s Three automakers, shutting down Ford’s largest factory and threatening Jeep maker Stellantis. In a surprise move Wednesday night, 8,700 members left their jobs at Ford’s Kentucky truck plant in Louisville.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/uaw-update-strike-kentucky-truck-plant-strike-ford/
“NATO vows to respond if Finland-Estonia gas pipeline damage is deliberate.
“NATO has promised a “determined” response if damage to an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia proves deliberate, as investigators said traces of an “external, mechanical force” had been found on the seabed.”
“Court orders Estonian state energy firm to halt shale oil plant construction.
“Estonia’s supreme court has ordered the state energy company Enefit to halt construction on a shale oil facility because of the damage it will do to the environment… “It’s remarkable that the first climate court case in Estonia – and in the Baltics – ended in a win,” said Kertu Birgit Anton, an activist…”
“Greta Thunberg and Norwegian activists stand firm against wind farm on Sami reindeer herding land.
“Greta Thunberg is among dozens of activists protesting outside the office of Europe’s largest onshore wind farm operator in Norway today. The activists say a transition to green energy shouldn’t come at the expense of the rights of Indigenous people.”
“Experts warn of risk of civil unrest in UK due to food shortages…
“…80% of experts believe logistical distribution issues leading to shortages are the most likely food-related cause of civil unrest in the next 10 years. But, considered over a 50-year horizon, they said catastrophic failure resulting in insufficient food to feed the UK population, rather than distribution problems, would be the most likely cause.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/10/231012111710.htm
“NHS presses Treasury for £1bn bailout as waiting lists hit record high.
“The NHS is pressing ministers for a £1 billion bailout to stave off a financial crisis it says has resulted from the doctors’ strikes. Talks have begun with the Treasury as health chiefs say they will have to abandon attempts to bring down waiting lists if finances run out of control.”
“[UK] Mortgage defaults have risen at their fastest pace since 2009 as lenders warn over plans to restrict the supply of deals.
“There has been a spike in the number of homeowners missing mortgage payments, data from the Bank of England shows, as they battle high interest rates.”
“The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday of possible shortages of diesel fuel in Europe this winter due to supply constraints including the European Union embargo on Russian crude.
“The IEA said Europe would need sustained imports from elsewhere but stringent winter quality specifications could constrain supplies, warning: “It may take another mild winter to avoid shortages.””
“France Tightens Energy-Saving Measures To Avoid Another Crisis.
“The French government will further restrict store and commercial real estate lighting usage and fine offenders as part of a new set of measures aimed at saving energy. France and all other European countries are looking to curb energy and gas use after last year’s energy crisis…”
“Police use teargas on banned pro-Palestinian rally in Paris as Macron calls for unity.
“French police used teargas and water cannon to break up a banned rally in support of the Palestinian people in Paris on Thursday night, as President Emmanuel Macron urged the French to remain united amid fears a spillover of the Israel-Hamas conflict in France, home to Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim communities.”
“Economic crisis worse than expected, says German government.
“The government has downgraded its economic growth projections for the current year, signalling a deeper-than-expected economic crisis and slower recovery, according to their revised autumn forecast published on Wednesday.”
“Is the next subprime crisis brewing in China’s property market?
“…China’s outlook is complicated by the rise of financial instruments that help investors manage risks in good times but accelerate downturns in bear markets, as the global financial crisis showed 15 years ago. A recent court decision in Shanghai on a case of asset-backed security fraud warns of potential dangers.”
“Brazil’s energy strategy in Itaborai raises climate concerns.
“Huge investments in fossil fuels are supposed to revive the fortunes of Brazil’s oil hub, Itaborai. While the government’s plan is welcomed on the ground, climate activists accuse President Lula of breaking promises.”
https://www.dw.com/en/itaborai-brazils-energy-strategy-raises-climate-concerns/a-67031657
“Fertile Cuba relies on food imports as farmers lack seeds, fuel.
“Crop production has plummeted in fertile Cuba as aid for farmers from a government grappling with tough sanctions and the worst economic crisis in decades has dried up. The country today imports almost all its basic foodstuffs, up from an already high 80 percent before the coronavirus pandemic…”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/fertile-cuba-relies-food-imports-215816351.html
“Economic crisis: Pakistan’s poor flee cities.
“Spiralling inflation and an imploding economy force struggling families to abandon city life, seeking survival in their home villages… Some have decided that the only answer is to leave or to send their families back to their home villages, where they can live more cheaply thanks to family networks and assets.”
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/asia/2023-10-12-economic-crisis-pakistans-poor-flee-cities/
“Deporting a million Afghans won’t solve Pakistan’s problems.
“When Pakistan’s caretaker government announced it will deport all “illegal” immigrants by the end of the month, everyone knew exactly what it meant: Afghan refugees are once again to be the targets of Islamabad’s threats.”
“Afghanistan earthquakes a ‘disaster on top of a disaster’, World Food Programme says.
““We have 50 million people who do not know where their next meal will come from, and the World Food Program is only able to support 3 million people due to a massive funding shortfall,” Kropf said in Herat, a northwestern province where the WFP has begun distributing rations.”
“Why are we avoiding the ‘what if’ of nuclear war?
“…One would hope bright minds in political capitals around the world are gaming how to avoid a nuclear conflict. But that notion calls to mind a moment when President Reagan after being briefed on the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction posed the simplest of questions, “What is Plan B?” to which his advisors had no answer.”
https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/11/why-are-we-avoiding-the-what-if-of-nuclear-war
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Wow. Just wow.
I needed to turn off the real world on the TV Screen,
the war in Gaza, including drama on Sydney streets with a Palestine support rally and politicians arguing heatedly over whether to ban or not,
following 6 looong weeks of jaw-dropping (to me) public viciousness of social tensions regarding the referendum for the Constitutional Recognition of Aboriginal peoples as First Nations. (We vote Saturday) and Friday night a public warning that political lobbying including T-shirts, hats etc are banned at voting booths…
Id had enough of public hate… so turned off the TV, and switched on the movie Barbie for a laugh, privileged I know, and thought I would just skim the economic headlines here through one of the dance numbers..
Beam me up Scotty
Finally, finally! It’s out there in writing that inflation has compounded to 20% since 2021. I’ve been saying all along this exact thing and furious the media is trying to make it sound like we are at 3.7% inflation. Thankyou for posting that!
EMJ, you are welcome but even then it is not the MSM pointing this out but The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter.
Einstein once posited (facetiously, I assume) that compound interest was the most powerful force in the universe; so when interest is one of the largest of consumer and corporate expenses, raising interest rates raises inflation, causing the Fed to raise interest rates to fight inflation: just like a feedback loop in nature, the solution soon becomes the problem.
I second that. Things are really in a new phase of collapse, it seems to me. I try to comfort myself: “It will all be over soon.”
It is all getting a bit ugly, Rain. Hope you liked Barbie. The last movie I saw was “Mutant Ninja Teenage Turtles” with my youngest. I have to admit it was amazingly enjoyable.
Quite the daily round-up today for the world.
Here’s humanity’s response, paraphrasing the great comments from one of the 4×400 members of the US team at the Worlds that got disqualified for one member’s inexplicable failure to wait to run until the baton was in here hand.
“We’ll treat this as a learning experience.”
“We’ll treat this as a learning experience.” 😆
Made me think of God’s Final Message to His Creation, as per Douglas Adams in his book, ‘So Long, And Thanks For All The Fish’: “We apologize for the inconvenience.”
But he also took advantage of the downturn, snapping up rival Permian producers Parsley Energy and Double Point Energy in 2021 in deals worth a combined $11bn. The acquisitions made the company the biggest producer in the basin and in the state of Texas.
The acquisition of Parsley Energy led to a large payout for Sheffield’s son Bryan, who founded it in 2008, and caused some controversy. In an interview at the time, the elder Sheffield insisted he and his son had been “completely walled off” from any negotiations.
Sheffield in April announced his second retirement before his final act. Selling Pioneer to ExxonMobil will earn him $29mn, according to regulatory filings. He will also receive about $150mn in Exxon stock in exchange for his Pioneer shares and join the supermajor’s board as a director.
The deal came quickly. “The company was not for sale,” said Sheffield. “If you asked me four weeks ago, there was nothing happening. They came with an offer in the last two to three weeks. And we negotiated.”
As he steps off the stage for the second time, industry observers question whether this really marks the end of Sheffield’s career. After all, the last time he retired, throwing himself into charity work and climbing Kilimanjaro did not dim his attraction to the industry.
Financial Times
There is much life still going on in the Camel Pee…I mean Shale Oil sector…
Looks as if we’ll limp along for a few more years…
Well.. few hours later. Barbie was OK, sort of cutesie film I would have enjoyed with tween daughters. Disappointed with the music though, I expected a better score.
Then over to Youtube, Nate Hagens x 2, the latest of which brief random thoughts on Middle East conflict…. and a plug to unplug, despite being ‘Stormwatchers’ living in the ‘storm’..
followed by this one, which I found interesting (had to use captions though) but not sure how accurate it might be
https://youtu.be/vFSXywnNLSE?si=5lUY0lGuGeRDL13X
Rain, I haven’t had time to watch the video but this YouTuber’s blurb argues that the continuation of OPEC+ oil production cuts is likely to exacerbate inflation and increase the risk of a black swan event. Hard to argue with that. From The Telegraph:
“We are one miscalculation short of a Middle East firestorm and the next world oil crisis… The grand bargain between the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia is already a dead letter… Everybody knows the stakes by now: we are one escalation away from a showdown between Iran and the Western democracies, which are broadly standing behind Israel…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/13/israel-hamas-gaza-world-oil-crisis/
Hello Pan
No ‘barbie time’ in France today. France has the largest Arab and Jewish community in the EU and has a grim recent history with ‘jihad terrorism’ Tensions are always sky-high here anyway due to the huge numbers of North Africans, Alegrins and so on living under extremely complex conditions here in France’s cities. Paris has entire ‘suburbs with hundreds of thousands of Muslim ‘migrants’ , illegal immigrants or not surviving in ‘uncontrolled’ ghetto-like o conditions. In July, inh tiozens of French cities saw huge riots and arson attacks with unreal destruction.
Add to that an estimated 200,000 French people in Israel and dozens died or went missing in the Hamas attack.
Today in a northern French town a Jihad terrorist stabbed a teacher to death and seriously wounded two colleagues.
You can understand that the tension here is around the corner. There particularly much commotion about the radical left party LFI refusing to label ‘Hamas’as a terrorist organisation. The French government’s main goal is to protect the very large Jewish community from ‘import terror’ and free the hostages trapped somewhere in Gaza City. Ten thousand gendarmes have been called in to protect Jewish schools and institutions.
Fortunately, France happens to be playing football against the Netherlands tonight…. that resets the senses a bit.
In light of the ongoing genocide, I have been thinking about the origin of similar evil in the world. Then, Tom Murphy posted this:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/10/deer-in-the-headlights/#more-4037
Dr. Murphy blamed agriculture in general and oddly enough the Enlightenment. I think those things – the beginning of agriculture and the realization that just because things are in the Bible doesn’t necessarily make them true (the Enlightenment (see just about anything written by Voltaire) ) – just happed to occur at the same time as Murphy says, “… that the perception of separateness began in earnest when we started mastering land and beast …”. Dr Murphy confuses correlation with causation.
No, the cause of humanities detachment from nature is something more basic, and something very old. As I have said before, Judaism isn’t necessarily the most evil religion, but it is in the top three. (Or, maybe, I inserted one of the other two names in the sentence – its all the same.)
Then God said, “Let us make mankind in our image, in our likeness, so that they may rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky, over the livestock and all the wild animals, and over all the creatures that move along the ground.”
Genesis 1:26
Would humanity be in the same position if instead one of the main tenants of the main religion was the following?
“May all beings have happiness and the cause of happiness.
May they be free of suffering and the cause of suffering.
May they never be disassociated from the supreme happiness which is without suffering.
May they remain in the boundless equanimity, free from both attachment to close ones and rejection of others.”
In the first quote, we are given to RULE for our own use, in the second, “May all beings have happiness …”. One of the quotes transmits wisdom, the other power.
Once a person thinks he is special and separate from nature it is easy to view other people much like one views animals. “We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly,” Gallant said.
Thank you for all the comments. I have nothing insightful to add but I value them and not just for the information and ideas – these are unnervingly volatile times; it helps to feel that I am sharing them with people who have a deeper understanding of the underlying factors driving the destabilisation than perhaps the general public or those in my personal life do.
Gee thanks, man.
BTW: If they end up lost in the great bit bucket in the sky, it is no biggie. I am trying the other e-mail, seems better.
Lou, you are welcome. I meant the comment for you and all posters on the site. It is great to have the company.
It’s a sad state of affairs when the consumer doesn’t realize that they have complete control over inflation. The price of a product goes up ,don’t buy it. The price will fall.
Looks like I need to apologize. It’s not a sad state of affairs. It’s Clever Ape stupidity & greed for more, that they may never really need.
How much crap do monkey minds have laying around or stored in boxes, closets,basements & attics that they have not touched in years & may have no value today? Bad investment? Bigger question, how much did one spend on the crap? Wow! It would be nice to have all that cash in one’s hand.
“Stupid is as stupid does.”
” A person’s lack of intelligence may be judged by the lack of wisdom of his or her actions.” – WordSense Dictionary
A persons lack of INTEGRITY may be judged by the lack of wisdom of his or her actions.
2
2 boot
I can forgive someone’s good faith stupidity. Nature is more cruel than I am.
you betcha
Did I just contridicit myself?