Very shocked and saddened to hear of the sudden death of Michael Dowd of Post Doom. He was a stalwart supporter of this site, an effervescent character and extremely well informed. It was a pleasure and a privilege to have known him just a little. RIP Michael.
“IMF says global economy ‘limping along,’ cuts growth forecast for China, euro area.
“The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro area and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the “remarkable strength” of the U.S. economy…
“IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters… said the forecasts generally pointed to a soft landing, but the IMF remained concerned about risks related to the real estate crisis in China, volatile commodity prices, geopolitical fragmentation, and a resurgence in inflation.”
“The world is hurtling towards another financial crisis, and the IMF is in denial.
“With war in the Middle East looming, energy prices once more spiking, and governments seemingly drowning in debt, the impression of all-embracing perma-crisis grows by the day. Yet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting… there is an almost surreal air of calm verging on outright complacency.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/11/world-financial-crisis-imf-denial-economy-debt/
“War in Israel, oil shocks, and roaring inflation, Deutsche Bank sees ‘a striking number of parallels’ with the 1970s…
“Allen’s main fear is that we could see a repeat of this type of persistent inflation during the 2020s. He pointed to a number of reasons why he’s so concerned on Monday, from the threat of another oil price shock to growing “industrial unrest” from workers that can be seen in union strikes.”
https://fortune.com/2023/10/09/israel-war-like-1970s-stagflation-risk-deutsche-bank-warns/
“Senator Lindsay Graham, a notable hawk in foreign policy, has called for bombing Iranian refineries in retaliation for the country’s supposed involvement in the Hamas attack on Israel this weekend.
“Speaking to the media on Monday, Graham said that if there was another attack by groups affiliated with Iran, the United States should “destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure”.”
“US bond market bomb could blow up the world economy…
“Joe Biden keeps spending while Jay Powell is raising interest rates to tame inflation… [unlike the UK gilts crisis last year] The US economy is big enough to blow up the world economy. President Joe Biden is spending up big on green projects… Unfortunately, that is blowing out the US budget deficit, which is expected to rise to more than 6 per cent of output next year.”
“Housing industry urges Powell to stop raising interest rates or risk an economic hard landing.
“Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available homes for sale.”
“Almost half of US listed firms have negative profit margins.
“They have been able to survive in artificially low interest rates and ample liquidity environment. Things have changed though.”
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1711619458081402918
“Mack Trucks workers go on strike as labor unrest drags on at Detroit automakers.
“More auto workers are on strike after union members rejected a tentative five-year contract with Mack Trucks. They now join fellow United Auto Workers members who have been striking against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis since the middle of September.”
“South Carolina nuclear plant gets warning over another cracked emergency fuel pipe.
“Small cracks have been found a half-dozen times in the past 20 years in pipes that carry fuel to emergency generators that provide cooling water for a reactor if electricity fails at the V.C. Summer plant near Columbia…”
“Union workers are set to go on strike at Chevron’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia next Thursday, in renewed action that could disrupt about 7% of global LNG supply.
“Chevron (CVX) confirmed that it had received notice of industrial action scheduled to start on October 19 that would involve work stoppages and partial work bans.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/10/energy/chevron-australia-workers-strike-intl-hnk/index.html
“Israel shuts down major offshore gas field amid violence.
“Chevron was instructed to suspend production Oct. 9 at the Tamar gas field off its southern coast and will seek alternative fuel sources to meet its needs, following three days of violence in the region.”
“Gas prices surged after Russia was suspected of sabotaging an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia [this is the Finnish government’s speculation; I am just reporting it].
“On Tuesday, Sauli Niinistö, the president of Findland, said that the 48 mile-long Balticconnector link between the two Nato allies has been extensively damaged by “external activity”.”
“Hundreds of thousands of [UK] households struggling with energy bills, industry chiefs warn.
“E.On and EDF revealed a recent spike in the number of customers unable to pay, as they called for Government support before bills rise further over winter. Philippe Commaret, EDF’s managing director for customers, said he has seen an increase of 100,000 in the number of struggling households. “That’s pretty stark,” he said.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/10/uk-households-struggling-energy-bills-crisis/
“As the cost of living increases amid an unstable economy, people are panicking about their finances. It’s taking a toll on mental health and quality of life for billions across the globe.
“…more and more people are starting to panic about their money. Financial anxiety has set in for billions of people – including some who haven’t felt the acute pressure before.”
“Bank of England flags concerns over longer mortgages and rise in credit card use.
“Consumers are taking longer mortgages and spending more on credit cards in an attempt to adapt to higher interest rates and living costs, potentially storing up debt troubles in future, the Bank of England has said.”
“Loans by Italian banks to businesses in August posted the biggest drop on record, data showed on Tuesday, as the European Central Bank’s policy of tightening bites.
“A string of hikes by the ECB, whose key rate stands at a record high of 4% since last month, make it much more expensive for firms to borrow.”
“Bank of Japan’s interest rate-rising dilemma.
“After having maintained near-zero interest rates for decades, the Japanese central bank may be forced to hike rates if inflation remains persistently high. But Japan’s enormous government debt and vulnerable banking sector mean that doing so could trigger a systemic financial crisis.”
https://www.theasset.com/article/50159/bank-of-japans-interest-rate-rising-dilemma
“China’s Country Garden warns it could default on debt…
“In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange the company said that it “expects that it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations when due or within the relevant grace periods, including but not limited to those under the US dollar notes issued by the company”.”
“Argentina’s peso has tumbled against the dollar as voters and markets brace for a possible victory by Javier Milei, a radical rightwing economist who wants to dollarise the economy, in elections on October 22…
“The gap between the official and unofficial rates has widened to 165 per cent, the largest on record.”
https://www.ft.com/content/52b01eb8-9177-48e0-a4f5-2d344934cf98
“Guatemala’s Arevalo says government using violence to counter protests, warns possible state of siege…
“Ongoing protests entered their eighth straight day on Monday, with Guatemalans taking to the streets to demand the resignation of authorities from the attorney general’s office, which has faced international accusations of trying to undermine Arevalo’s landslide electoral victory in August.”
“Bulgaria’s miners, energy workers plan national protest.
“Miners and energy sector workers have been blocking key roads in Bulgaria for eleven days in a row… By the end of 2038, Bulgaria has pledged to close the coal industry under its recovery and resilience plan… These plans envisage the smooth transition of regions where coal industry is located towards green energy production.”
https://www.intellinews.com/bulgaria-s-miners-energy-workers-plan-national-protest-296059
“Coal industry faces 1 million job losses from global energy transition – research.
“The global coal industry may have to shed nearly 1 million jobs by 2050, even without any further pledges to phase out fossil fuels, with China and India facing the biggest losses, research showed on Tuesday. Hundreds of labour-intensive mines are expected to close…”
“We are not in an energy transition. We are in an energy addition.
“Energy demand keeps going up, and only a small portion of that is being covered by the increases in renewable energy. 82% of the worlds energy still comes from fossil fuels. This is not simply a matter of building out renewables. That market logic is a failure.”
https://twitter.com/PoliticOfNature/status/1711438454247039033
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Hello Pan,
An interesting note from the Netherlands .
“…….According to recent figures from CBS, energy consumption per Dutch citizen has decreased to 154 gigajoules in 2022, a level equivalent to that of 1970. In addition, dependence on energy from abroad has risen to its highest point since 1906, at 77 per cent.
Per capita energy consumption has shown a downward trend since 2013, thanks in part to more energy-efficient homes and cars. The decline was also influenced by milder winters and a decrease in natural gas consumption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. An average Dutchman now consumes 154 gigajoules of energy annually, similar to energy consumption in 1970.
Between 1960 and 1973, the Netherlands experienced explosive growth in energy consumption, mainly due to the use of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas. This growth stabilised after the first oil crisis in 1973, leading to a focus on energy saving. In 2010, total!!! energy consumption peaked at 3470 petajoules but has been declining since 2013, despite population growth. The decline in natural gas production in Groningen has led to increased imports of natural gas from abroad since 2015. This has increased dependence on foreign energy to 77 per cent by 2022. This is the highest level since the opening of the State Mines in Limburg in 1906……”.
1970 I remember well 🙂 We had just switched from coal at home and I had my first car…. Leaving aside the dismal ‘big energy picture’, I don’t actually doubt the calculations.
There is obviously a lower limit at which ‘energy poverty’ occurs, but at least in the Netherlands it has not yet been reached. I know the country ‘like the back of my hand” There has indeed been enromous investment for decades in making homes energy efficient, mostly subsidised from natural gas revenues.
I can imagine that when ‘the right energy story’ is told, another 20% can easily be saved without too many problems.
Only they are not going to tell that story 🙂
https://www.warmte365.nl/nieuws/nederland-bereikt-1970-energieverbruiksniveau-opnieuw-in-2022-65a8aeb0.html
I am very curious about the article, but am ignorant of the language. The country as a whole has lower energy usage, and the article apparently claims efficiency gains from the general population. My question is about industry in the country. Is this energy use reduction due to a de-industrialization?
Hello Pintada, I was also surprised… 🙂 This does refer to the energy consumption of ‘households’!!! .
As for industry, the following.
The average daily output of Dutch industry in August was 8.0 per cent lower than in August 2022, CBS announces. Production also shrank year-on-year in the previous months of 2023.
In the CBS article the government statistical organisation, you can also see the corresponding charts. Of course, partly due to the disappearance of the natural gas bubble, energy consumption in industry fell.
For decades, the Netherlands has had an ‘ample consumption’ and subsidy policy that easily sustained many energy-intensive industries including greenhouse horticulture, aluminium, Cement and fertilisers.
According to recent calculations, 37 billion euros a year of ‘fossil subsidies’ were channelled through. Meanwhile, after turning off the gas tap, several companies closed down like Aldel (aluminium) Cement (depleted anyway) and an ammonia plant etc etc. Miraculously, e expected bankruptcies in greenhouse flowers and vegetables remain out.
Incidentally, a lot of gas spinoff money has been invested in energy conservation and efficiency in those sectors too. I’m not saying that ‘everyone’ is going to make it hear…. we’ll see 🙂
Succes with your ‘dutch’ 🙂 easy language
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2023/41/productie-industrie-8-procent-lager-in-augustus
So very saddened to find that Michael Dowd died. I first met him…and Connie at a talk he gave in 2008. It was through him that I met so many others and listened to so many of his audio versions of written documents. He will be missed by many.
” “Gas prices surged after Russia was suspected of sabotaging an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia [this is the Finnish government’s speculation; I am just reporting it].”
I wouldn’t doubt Russian involvement given the pipeline is between two “unfriendly countries”. Russia is, after all, at war with NATO.
I was thinking it was the cia again up to no good destroying another pipeline to Europe.
Just a general comment but, as someone who really likes to understand a situation, I hate the fog of war – the propaganda and counter-propaganda; that creepy feeling you get when sense you are being manipulated…
Please forgive the brevity of my comments this evening btw. My better half has a rare day off and we are enjoying some quality time.
“Speaking to the media on Monday, Graham said that if there was another attack by groups affiliated with Iran, the United States should “destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure.”
Finish the genocide in Gaza, and then start a war with Iran. “Good” plan.
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/this-is-exactly-what-it-looks-like?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
“Coal industry faces 1 million job losses from global energy transition – research.”
I read the article, and find it interesting that the author related certain facts, and in the face of those facts, completely missed the point.
“Hundreds of labour-intensive mines are expected to close in the coming decades as they reach the end of their lifespans … GEM looked at 4,300 active and proposed coal mine projects around the world covering a total workforce of nearly 2.7 million. It found that more than 400,000 workers are employed in mines set to cease operations before 2035.”
True enough, but what the author missed (or purposefully attempts to hide) is the fact that removing that much coal from the global economy will cripple it given that there are no practical alternatives. Peak coal.
CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Rubio: “Is there a way for Israel to destroy Hamas without causing massive casualties against the innocent people of Gaza? There are more than two million people in the Gaza Strip and roughly a million of them are children.”
Rubio replied: “… They have to be eradicated.”
The embarrassment from being an American keeps growing.
Things appear to be falling apart at a record speed. I do not think their will be any rebuilding after it crashes.
Very sad to hear about Michael Dowd’s death. Michael was very well read and he said the first thing he read every day was this site.
Rob, I was very flattered by that. And nice to have you comment on the site! This is Rob’s excellent blog for those who haven’t come across it:
https://un-denial.com/
The silver lining; Michael won’t have to see the coming horrors a species will experience when it doesn’t protect it’s habitat.
Michael must have been bored if he read any of my comments. 😉
“Fifteen straight years of bailout has conditioned gamblers to explode. All because they believe that printed money is the secret to effortless wealth…”
https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2023/10/conditioned-to-explode.html
Let’s all get together & fling shit at a fan. 😉