“World can’t ‘unplug’ existing energy system: says COP28 head, Sultan Al Jaber…
“The president of the upcoming COP28 climate talks in Dubai called on Sunday for governments to abandon “fantasies” such as hastily ditching existing energy infrastructure in pursuit of climate goals. Much of international climate diplomacy revolves around the thorny issue of how and when to quit fossil fuels.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231008-world-can-t-unplug-existing-energy-system-cop28-head
“Central Banks Are [unintentionally] Waging War On Renewables.
“Central banks have rapidly hiked interest rates, and it’s the renewable sector that is the most impacted. Multiple renewable companies, including Brookfield Renewable Corp, Algonquin Power, and NextEra Energy NEE, are witnessing their stocks hit 52-week lows in the last few weeks.”
“The world’s largest copper producers have warned that there is a lack of mines under development to deliver enough of the metal to keep pace with the clean energy transition.
“The warning comes as miners struggle with falling metal prices because of the weakness of the global economy and cost inflation…”
https://www.ft.com/content/b3ad2631-f8b9-41df-8e2e-b4493738ded8
“Uranium prices hit post-Fukushima high on nuclear power revival.
“Uranium prices have climbed roughly 50% so far this year to a 12-year high as growing concerns over energy security spurs countries to look again at nuclear energy, an option that had been shunned since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns.”
“Saudi Arabia Willing to Raise Oil Output to Help Secure Israel Deal [this article just pre-dates events in Israel/Gaza and the deal is likely off the table].
“Saudi Arabia has told the White House it would be willing to boost oil production early next year if crude prices are high—a move aimed at winning goodwill in Congress for a deal in which the kingdom would recognize Israel and in return get a defense pact with Washington…”
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-israel-talks-riyadh-oil-increase-a25d6106
“Oil jumps as Middle East strife shakes markets.
“Asian action has been dominated by news from Israel, with the usual safe-haven suspects getting a bid. With one war already raging in Europe, a new conflict in the Middle East was bound to rattle the markets. Oil led the charge with gains of as much as 5% for Brent and U.S. crude…”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2023-10-09/
“Safe-haven gold soars as investors bolt for safety from Middle East clashes.
“Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Monday as dramatic clashes between Israeli and Hamas forces over the weekend raised the risk of a wider Middle East conflict and spurred a rush to safe haven investments like bullion.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/09/safe-haven-gold-soars-as-investors-run-from-middle-east-clashes.html
“Bond turmoil: four risks to global markets. Investors have woken up to the fact that super-low interest rates are over. Now for the reckoning…
“Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said: “I struggle to see how the recent yield moves don’t increase the risk of an accident somewhere in the system.””
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bond-turmoil-four-risks-to-global-markets-qj5v0g3tx
“Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off?
““We are watching this . . . very carefully to see if something breaks,” said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International… Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks’ bond portfolios are now close to $400bn — an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank…”
https://www.ft.com/content/144c541a-1109-40c9-b74a-7d176ba90fc6
“Alarm bells are ringing: What markets are trying to warn us about the economy… Economic data has been resilient, but financial markets don’t believe the numbers…
““The alarm bells are telling us that something is going to break somewhere in the financial system,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, a foreign exchange service in Toronto.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bonds-markets-recession-economy-armstrong-1.6989733
“Mixed messages behind the headlines of a blowout US jobs report…
“The report “says something about a lack of bargaining power on the part of American workers”, said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan, who observed that the mixed composition of Friday’s data pointed to “strength without heat”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/be2d0743-7621-4c0b-9417-f3883f9a5634
“US consumers cut back on credit cards as repayment charges hit record high…
“The fall in card spending comes as consumers’ finances are being strained by both higher interest rates and debt loads, particularly when it comes to borrowing on credit cards. This debt has been rising in the past year and recently topped $1tn for all Americans for the first time.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1cfb6a5d-c460-465b-b27c-4941bd5e1acc
“Oil Traders on Edge as US Gasoline Demand Shows Signs of Cracking.
“One of the oil market’s most controversial data points of recent years — a measure of how much gasoline Americans consume — is pointing to a crash in demand that’s alarming traders the world over… What happens in the US gasoline market has implications far beyond the fuel itself.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-traders-edge-gasoline-demand-220000741.html
“Sinister stagflation is coming – Bank of Canada will be ineffective in fighting it.
“… like a mutating virus, a new strain of stagflation may be back in the 2020s, and this time with even more punch and stronger resistance to the vaccine of higher interest rates. Three factors in 2024 will continue to spur prices higher – all to the chagrin of the Bank of Canada.”
“How a huge new LNG plant spells ‘dire’ trouble for whales off Canada’s coast.
“Collisions between large whales and even larger ships have been growing more common as marine traffic increases… Now, with the opening of a huge new liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal in 2025, transforming the deep fjords of northern British Columbia into a crowded marine highway, researchers are warning of a likely “dire” increase in whale deaths.”
“A Baltic Sea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia is shut down over a suspected leak…
“If it turns out that the detected pressure drop is due to a leak that has caused damage to the pipeline, repair work could take “at least several months” depending on the nature of the damage, according to Gasgrid Finland.”
“Green Energy Casts a Shadow Over a Cherished English Landscape.
“Residents of East Anglia fear that planned power lines for offshore wind projects will blight their rural idyll… Ms. Banks supported efforts to tackle climate change, she said, but she questioned whether erecting a ribbon of steel towers through an area known for its quiet, rural beauty is the right solution.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/09/business/energy-environment/green-energy-east-anglia-britain.html
“Why Britain is on the verge of a cataclysmic financial crisis…
“If it came to pass, a market crash on the scale of 1987 would prove a cataclysmic political and economic event. It would send interest rates soaring, increasing costs for mortgage holders and for highly indebted companies, especially in the property sector. Business would fail and pension funds would be hard… the already-high cost of servicing national debts would climb even higher.”
“Italy’s central bank governor urges Giorgia Meloni to heed investors’ debt fears…
“Ignazio Visco, who steps down at the end of this month after 12 years leading the Bank of Italy, told the Financial Times that the recent surge in Rome’s borrowing costs showed investors were “insuring themselves” against a spiral of weak long-term growth prospects and high debt.”
https://www.ft.com/content/01d9633f-ea8d-47b5-9607-fac17c7dce36
“Europe’s money-printing spree risks ending in bailouts, analysts warn…
“BNP Paribas warned there was a growing risk that some of the bloc’s biggest economies “may have to be recapitalised” as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to shrink its balance sheet… Authorities in both Germany and the Netherlands have already acknowledged that bailouts may be necessary as losses mount…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/08/europes-money-printing-spree-risks-ending-bailouts/
“Distressed Debt Anxiety Is Spreading Across Emerging Markets.
“Rapidly rising Treasury yields have brought back to emerging markets fears of a potential wave of defaults, with investors questioning which countries struggling with heavy debt loads will miss payments or be forced to restructure first… 21 emerging-market nations have sovereign dollar debt trading near distressed levels…”
“Emerging economies face $220 billion in budget cuts amid debt crisis, Oxfam says.
“Some of the world’s poorest countries face budget cuts topping $220 billion over the coming five years due to a debt crisis that has pushed dozens to the brink of default, according to an Oxfam International report released on Monday.”
“‘I feel hopeless’: Living in Laos on the brink…
“The economic crisis has been caused by a rash programme of government borrowing used to finance Chinese-backed infrastructure projects which has begun to unravel. The crisis shows little sign of easing, with public debt spiralling to unsustainable levels, resulting in government budget cuts, sky-high inflation and record-breaking currency depreciation…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66924300
“In Bangladesh, climate dangers menace ‘extremely vulnerable’ Rohingya refugee camps…
“This year also saw budget cuts that forced the UN World Food Programme to steeply reduce humanitarian aid to the Rohingya camps, with rations now US$8 per refugee monthly, down from US$12 at the start of the year. The refugees are not allowed to legally take up work, so most are completely at the mercy of these rations.”
“Angola police crack down on anti-government protests.
“The local interior ministry of the eastern Lunda Sul province said in a statement a group had “entered the public highway… creating obstacles for passers-by and causing security problems”. The protesters, also including children, were demonstrating against the government, high living costs, alleged state corruption and service delivery.”
“Mali crisis: Life in Timbuktu and Gao under siege by Islamist fighters.
“The blockades have come as fighting intensifies between the army, who are backed by Russian Wagner mercenaries, and both Islamist groups and ethnic Tuareg separatist fighters. For nearly two months, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has been trying to completely cut off the historic northern city of Timbuktu…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67027659
“Conflicts, protests, election woes stifle Africa growth.
“The multiple coups, conflicts, and protests witnessed in several countries across Africa in the recent past have stifled the continent’s economic growth… the decade to 2025 could be a lost one for Africa as no growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been recorded since 2015.”
“Sudan war spreading as death toll tops 9,000…
“The fighting has displaced almost 4.3 million people within Sudan and around 1.2 million more who have fled across borders. In recent weeks, the violence has also moved further south, threatening the fragile safety of more than 366,000 people who have sought shelter in Al Jazira state just south of the capital.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2387131/middle-east
“Israel-Hamas war live news: Gaza under ‘non-stop bombardment’
“Israel says it struck more than 500 targets in the Gaza Strip, while fierce battles with Hamas fighters continue in several areas in southern Israel. The intense bombardment has so far displaced more than 120,000 people in the besieged Palestinian enclave.”
“Turkey says it ‘neutralised’ 58 Kurdish militants in northern Syria…
“Turkey this week said all targets belonging to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militia and the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia were “legitimate targets” for its forces, after the PKK claimed responsibility for Sunday’s bombing in Ankara which wounded two police officers and killed the two attackers.”
“In Nagorno-Karabakh We Just Saw What the World Is About to Become…
“…despite appearances, the conflict is not a Samuel Huntington-style clash of civilizations. Instead, in its emboldening of traditional regional powers like Turkey, scrambling for geopolitical spoils after the retreat of superpowers, it’s a harbinger of the coming world disorder.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/09/opinion/nagorno-karabakh-russia-turkey.html
“Fragmenting global economy a real and present danger.
“At a time of increasing and interconnected crises, leading economists are warning that trade fragmentation threatens to further undermine growth prospects. Sadly, they are whistling in the wind as powerful countries continue to dig deeper protectionist trenches.”
“IMF clings to a hopeful agenda as crisis follows crisis.
“At the fund’s annual meeting this week in Morocco, ambitions for climate and debt relief may be overwhelmed by events – again… The list of possible flashpoints is long: a recession as the sharp increase in interest rates over the past two years bites; a financial crash as investor confidence is punctured; a developing-country debt crisis; a catastrophic climate event; an escalation of the war.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Companies
Saudi Arabian Oil Co
RIYADH, Oct 9 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia will launch a greenhouse gas credits scheme early next year that will allow companies to offset their emissions by buying credits from projects that voluntarily cut or remove greenhouse gas emissions, the scheme’s website said on Monday.
The kingdom’s Greenhouse Gas Crediting and Offsetting Mechanism (GCOM), launched at the United Nations’ MENA Climate Week in Riyadh, aims “to incentivise the deployment of emission reduction and removal activities at scale to support and enable climate-related national strategies, policies, and programs,” GCOM’s website said.
Participation in the scheme, which aligns with Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement, is voluntary and project-based, covers greenhouse gas and non-greenhouse gas “metrics across all sectors” and is open to the public and private sectors as well as subsidiaries of foreign firms.
A year ago, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, said it would set up the Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company (RVCMC) with Saudi’s Tadawul Group, operator of the Riyadh-based Saudi Exchange.
Some 16 Saudi firms, including oil giant Aramco and electric transmission monopoly the Saudi Electricity Company, in June bought more than 2.2 million tonnes of carbon credits that auction organiser RVCMC said were certified and come from projects that avoid emissions by using sustainable technologies or removing carbon from the atmosphere.
Reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi and Pesha Magid; Writing by Yousef Saba and Nadine Awadalla; Editing by Louise Heavens
Worldcategory
Death toll from flash floods in Indian Himalayas climbs to 74, rescue gathers pace
The death toll from flash floods unleashed by a glacial lake bursting its banks in India’s Himalayas climbed to 74 on Monday with 101 people still missing days after the calamity struck, according to provincial officials.
The logo of Saudi Aramco is pictured outside Khurais
Marketscategory
Aramco to sign Danish hydrogen deal in lower CO2 drive
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco said on Monday it was in the process of signing a deal with Danish decarbonisation company Topsoe to build a pilot lower-carbon hydrogen plant in Denmark.
Starving the Mekong: Lives are remade as dams built by China upstream deprive Mekong River Delta of precious sediment
Worldcategory
China, Mekong countries should share water data, dam operations – study
China and Southeast Asian countries through which the Mekong River flows should share water storage and hydropower operations data, a study said, with water levels in the river at historic lows due to climate change and human factors.
Losses from China disasters reach $42 bln in first nine months of 2023
China suffered direct economic losses of 308.29 billion yuan ($42 billion) over the first nine months of 2023, the government said, from natural disasters such as torrential rains, deadly landslides, freakish hailstorms and a string of typhoons.
Schemes that are voluntary will certainly be effective…they have in the past…
.
It’s all one gigantic clusterf*ck.
It really is, Rusty, and the alarming reality is that this only gets worse under the duress of energy/resource constraints and climate/eco breakdown.
For those of us not immediately, or at least severely, affected by the accumulating dramas playing out across the world, these are “the good old days”, eventually to be looked back upon as a time of staggering privilege and abundance.
“Saudi Arabia will launch a greenhouse gas credits scheme.” A wafer-thin patina of green on a sea of oil…
The COP28 president, Al Jaber is plugging his oil company’s fuel as greener than others in this Guardian interview: Al Jaber is eager to tell me, Adnoc’s fuel is lower in carbon than oil and gas from other sources. That is because UAE has invested heavily in modernising its drilling and refining operations, plugging leaks and upgrading equipment. That should make Adnoc’s products the preferred option, he insists, while we still need oil and gas.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28
Hi Pan,
I’d like to take a moment to point you to an article in Oilprice by Simon Watkins. It is an interesting article with a ‘broad’ Watkins view. I always find him a bit of a vain professor that again. He gives it a broad analysis from an energy background on the war between Gaza and Israel and in particular the role of Iran cs. I cannot possibly judge whether what he says is all ‘correct’, but he paints an interesting picture of Lebanon.
I’ve long wondered how that ‘failed state’ actually survives economically with a huge force (hezbollah) in a totally ‘uninhabited’ country.
Welcome to the Max Mad world shall we say.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/The-New-Global-Oil-Market-Order-Hangs-In-The-Balance-After-Hamas-Attacks-Israel.html
Thank you, Zip – an interesting read. He’s obviously very well informed on matters of energy and geopolitics in the Middle East. Let’s hope his speculative final paragraph is wide of the mark!
“It may be, though, that the ongoing hostilities between Hamas and Israel inexorably begin to further destabilise the tinder box that is the present Middle East, leading to a second active region of proxy war between the U.S. and its allies on the one side, and the allies of China and Russia on the other, to add to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
“It seems likely that Beijing and Moscow might well believe that with two such conflicts in place, a third theatre of war in the world – in Asia Pacific, for example – would stretch the resources of the West, both military and politically, very close to breaking point. In any event, the likely soaring price of oil and gas from a broader Arab-Israeli conflict would send the West back into economy-crippling inflation levels.”
Wonder how many are investing in the Military Industrial Complex globally?
Death & destruction pays great dividends?
I’m waiting to see how the little disagreement in the Middle East will affect the global economy, it’s not gone nuclear yet so the killing is just normal for the Clever Ape. 😉
Wait until AGW decides to get the attention of baboon brains. There are no economic strategies or weapons that will stop it.