“WTO slashes growth forecast for global goods trade by more than 50%.
“The 164-member trade body slashed its estimate from April that predicted the global trade in goods would grow by 1.7% in 2023, saying it needed to be scaled back to 0.8%.
“Persistent inflation had kept interest rates higher for longer than expected in most trading nations, the WTO said, while a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine also cast a shadow over its outlook.”
“In 2023, there will be a global recession, like that in 2009. And it may continue in 2024 as well. As per the UN’s latest Trade and Development Report 2023, the world economy growth is projected to be 2.4 per cent.
“The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) — that brought out this annual report — has termed this growth as “stalled speed”. A global recession is defined as when the growth rate hits 2.5 per cent and below.”
“Swiss Re warns insurers over severe global recession or stagflation threat.
“The risk of a severe global recession or 1970s-style stagflation remain “elevated”, and both could present challenges to (re)insurers, according to Swiss Re.”
“Oil Falls Most in a Year as Economic Storm Clouds Imperil Demand.
“Oil plunged the most in more than a year as early signals that demand is flagging exacerbated markets’ unease over the prospect of a punishing stretch of high interest rates.”
“The supply-side management of the oil market from OPEC+ in recent months could lead to demand destruction as fragile economies may not be able to bear with high oil prices much longer, Hardeep Singh Puri, the oil minister of the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, India, has told Argus in an interview.
“It is the right of the OPEC+ producers to decide how much oil they would pump, but they should not be “unmindful of the consequences,” the minister said.”
“Diesel Prices Could Keep Inflation High…
“Businesses facing higher fuel costs are more likely to raise prices on groceries, consumer goods and other things. That, in turn, could force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates or keep them high for longer.”
“Central banks ‘risk global recession unless they relax 2% inflation targets’.
Economic arm of UN says pro-growth stance needed, with interest rate rises increasing inequality… “At this moment, pushing down on the fiscal brakes and keeping interest rates high is the wrong policy combination for steadying the global economy.””
“Biden’s borrowing binge sinks bonds as US debt spirals out of control.
“…Biden’s fiscal largesse is catching up with him. American bond markets are in turmoil as traders refocus attention on the scale of US borrowing and debt amid a 156 per cent jump in the federal deficit over the last year.”
“US corporate bond spreads widen as hopes dim for soft landing…
“”If rates continue to move higher or simply remain at these elevated levels for a significant period of time, it is going to have a pronounced effect on the credit worthiness of corporate borrowers, particularly in the high yield space,” Krieter noted.”
“The US may no longer avoid a recession.
“An intense period of rising interest rates, high oil prices and a stronger dollar is pushing the financial market consensus on US economic growth away from the comforting notion of a soft landing.”
“Why the Fed will again have to slash rates to zero and relaunch QE.
“A very slow-burning fuse has finally, and suddenly, reached the powder keg… Investors have belatedly, and suddenly, woken up to the shocking implications of a structural budget deficit heading for 8pc of GDP even before any trouble starts.”
“A new financial crisis is upon us – and our political class can no longer lie…
“…governments are about to face a terrible fiscal reckoning. It is becoming much more expensive for states to borrow, threatening to trigger another financial crisis, and in time to force many countries to slash their spending.”
“Shares of Britain’s Metro Bank were briefly suspended from trading twice early Thursday, in a volatile session that saw the stock shed more than 29% from the Wednesday close…
“The halts followed reports that the bank was trying to raise £600 million ($727 million) in debt and equity, according to Reuters.”
“The Bank of England has criticised UK banks for failing to heed its warnings and take action across their businesses to address the flaws in risk management systems exposed by the Archegos hedge fund scandal…
“It also comes as regulators across the world warn about the heightened risks to markets as economies continue to adjust to an era of raised interest rates.”
“Eurozone, Going Headlong Into Stagflation.
“Central banks have gone from sustaining aggregate demand by all means (huge injections of liquidity, even at negative rates) to strangling it, to suffocating it by raising interest rates and draining funds which, also at any price, are now seeking to reduce inflation.”
“Euro$ Collateral System is flashing red alarms, and it’s time to pay attention.
“Japanese govt bills are the epicenter, but this issue runs deeper. Brace yourself, because the global collateral system, which is vital for the financial world, is sputtering. Collateral isn’t just about USTs;; it’s about a complex web of interconnected components.”
“‘Europe isn’t profitable’ – Solar industry warns of hurdles to EU’s green tech drive.
“Europe’s bid to expand its green tech industry faces a host of challenges, including high energy costs and supply chain issues, solar industry representatives gathered in Madrid warned on Thursday.”
“Germany extends emergency coal capacity for another winter…
“The emergency measure decided last year will be extended for the coming winter, keeping some 1.9 GWs of lignite capacity at the ready – adding to Germany’s existing 45 GW of coal power plants, according to a decision announced on Wednesday (4 October) by the German government.”
“Gas supply disruptions continue to be a risk for Germany, the chief executive of the country’s biggest utility, RWE, told German publication WirtschaftsWoche in an interview published on Thursday.
““We don’t have any buffer in the gas system,” RWE’s chief executive officer Markus Krebber told WirtschaftsWoche, adding that Europe’s biggest economy must accelerate the construction of gas import infrastructure to avoid future shortages.”
“Germany is on the route to recession, economists have warned, after data revealed that its exports contracted more than feared over the summer.
“The volume of products sold abroad dropped by 1.2 per cent in August and 5.8 per cent annually, much worse than analysts’ forecasts, according to Destatis, the German statistics agency.”
“Evergrande, the ‘runaway’ developer that could become a wrecking ball for China’s economy…
“Since regulations were tightened in 2020, companies responsible for about 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted, and another major firm, Country Garden, has also battled to avoid missing massive debt repayments, raising the prospect of the risk of contagion.”
“China’s Property Market Crisis Leaves Malaysian Megaproject in Doubt.
“The future of a $100 billion development on Malaysia’s coast is in doubt due to growing concerns over the financial stability of its largest backer, China’s Country Garden. The property giant has reported billions of dollars in losses — but insists that its showpiece Forest City project in Malaysia is safe.”
“Guatemala protests intensify, demanding prosecutor resignations.
“Tens of thousands of Guatemalans marched peacefully on Thursday for the fourth consecutive day, demanding the resignation of powerful senior prosecutors accused of working to undermine President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s ability to take office.”
“Blackout Risk Pushes Brazil to Diesel as Amazon Drought Worsens.
“Two power plants that burn the fuel will enter in operation to guarantee enough electricity in Rondonia and Acre states during hours of peak demand, as recommended by country’s grid operator, known as ONS, in a statement late Wednesday. Earlier this week a major hydroelectric dam on the Madeira river was shut due to low water levels…”
“Health crisis in Lebanon is ‘catastrophic,’ head of parliamentary committee warns.
““Funds allocated for purchasing medications for cancer, (other) chronic diseases and kidney dialysis are nearly depleted,” Bilal Abdullah, the head of Lebanon’s Parliamentary Health Committee said on Thursday as he warned that the health situation in the country “is catastrophic.””
“Pakistan has ordered all unauthorised Afghan asylum seekers – an estimated 1.7 million people – to leave the country by November.
“A spike in attacks along the two countries’ border, which Islamabad blames on Afghanistan-based operatives, has escalated tensions this year. It has also fuelled resentment in Islamabad, which on Tuesday announced a crackdown on “illegal” migrants.”
“The looming data centre crunch…
“Vast arrays of servers are stored in rows of energy-intensive “racks” that produce incredible amounts of heat. This heat requires specialised cooling systems to regulate. A data centre needs to be kept between 18 to 27 degrees Celsius in order to stop the hardware deteriorating.”
“Achieving net zero will not solve all our climate problems…
“What is required from politicians worldwide is a realisation that we as a world are heading for disaster and that immediate action is required to REDUCE global temperatures. Reassuring the Titanic passengers by having the orchestra playing is not enough.”
[a very flattering piece by Ben Shread-Hewitt]…“The convergence: climate and economy become one
“Climate & Economy.com is a punchy roundup of news. Focusing each alternate day on one of its titular subjects (excluding Sundays), the blog is a vital resource for anyone studying either sector… Given the breakneck speed of climate and economic turbidity, this rapid-fire platform is just about the only way to stay up to date with the headline news on both.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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