“WTO slashes growth forecast for global goods trade by more than 50%.
“The 164-member trade body slashed its estimate from April that predicted the global trade in goods would grow by 1.7% in 2023, saying it needed to be scaled back to 0.8%.
“Persistent inflation had kept interest rates higher for longer than expected in most trading nations, the WTO said, while a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine also cast a shadow over its outlook.”
“In 2023, there will be a global recession, like that in 2009. And it may continue in 2024 as well. As per the UNâs latest Trade and Development Report 2023, the world economy growth is projected to be 2.4 per cent.
“The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) â that brought out this annual report â has termed this growth as âstalled speedâ. A global recession is defined as when the growth rate hits 2.5 per cent and below.”
“Swiss Re warns insurers over severe global recession or stagflation threat.
“The risk of a severe global recession or 1970s-style stagflation remain âelevatedâ, and both could present challenges to (re)insurers, according to Swiss Re.”
“Oil Falls Most in a Year as Economic Storm Clouds Imperil Demand.
“Oil plunged the most in more than a year as early signals that demand is flagging exacerbated marketsâ unease over the prospect of a punishing stretch of high interest rates.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-steadies-ahead-opec-review-235938401.html
“The supply-side management of the oil market from OPEC+ in recent months could lead to demand destruction as fragile economies may not be able to bear with high oil prices much longer, Hardeep Singh Puri, the oil minister of the worldâs third-largest crude oil importer, India, has told Argus in an interview.
“It is the right of the OPEC+ producers to decide how much oil they would pump, but they should not be âunmindful of the consequences,â the minister said.”
“Diesel Prices Could Keep Inflation High…
“Businesses facing higher fuel costs are more likely to raise prices on groceries, consumer goods and other things. That, in turn, could force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates or keep them high for longer.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-inflation.html
“Central banks ârisk global recession unless they relax 2% inflation targetsâ.
Economic arm of UN says pro-growth stance needed, with interest rate rises increasing inequality… âAt this moment, pushing down on the fiscal brakes and keeping interest rates high is the wrong policy combination for steadying the global economy.â”
“Biden’s borrowing binge sinks bonds as US debt spirals out of control.
“…Bidenâs fiscal largesse is catching up with him. American bond markets are in turmoil as traders refocus attention on the scale of US borrowing and debt amid a 156 per cent jump in the federal deficit over the last year.”
“US corporate bond spreads widen as hopes dim for soft landing…
“”If rates continue to move higher or simply remain at these elevated levels for a significant period of time, it is going to have a pronounced effect on the credit worthiness of corporate borrowers, particularly in the high yield space,” Krieter noted.”
“The US may no longer avoid a recession.
“An intense period of rising interest rates, high oil prices and a stronger dollar is pushing the financial market consensus on US economic growth away from the comforting notion of a soft landing.”
https://www.ft.com/content/02a899eb-e899-4b6f-8848-b5240a7127e9
“Why the Fed will again have to slash rates to zero and relaunch QE.
“A very slow-burning fuse has finally, and suddenly, reached the powder keg… Investors have belatedly, and suddenly, woken up to the shocking implications of a structural budget deficit heading for 8pc of GDP even before any trouble starts.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/06/why-fed-will-again-slash-rates-zero-relaunch-qe
“A new financial crisis is upon us â and our political class can no longer lie…
“…governments are about to face a terrible fiscal reckoning. It is becoming much more expensive for states to borrow, threatening to trigger another financial crisis, and in time to force many countries to slash their spending.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
“Shares of Britainâs Metro Bank were briefly suspended from trading twice early Thursday, in a volatile session that saw the stock shed more than 29% from the Wednesday close…
“The halts followed reports that the bank was trying to raise ÂŁ600 million ($727 million) in debt and equity, according to Reuters.”
“The Bank of England has criticised UK banks for failing to heed its warnings and take action across their businesses to address the flaws in risk management systems exposed by the Archegos hedge fund scandal…
“It also comes as regulators across the world warn about the heightened risks to markets as economies continue to adjust to an era of raised interest rates.”
https://www.ft.com/content/62c8f214-f57e-4bc9-85ee-adf659772cb7
“Eurozone, Going Headlong Into Stagflation.
“Central banks have gone from sustaining aggregate demand by all means (huge injections of liquidity, even at negative rates) to strangling it, to suffocating it by raising interest rates and draining funds which, also at any price, are now seeking to reduce inflation.”
https://thecorner.eu/54/eurozone-headlong-into-stagflation/111242/
“Euro$ Collateral System is flashing red alarms, and it’s time to pay attention.
“Japanese govt bills are the epicenter, but this issue runs deeper. Brace yourself, because the global collateral system, which is vital for the financial world, is sputtering. Collateral isn’t just about USTs;; it’s about a complex web of interconnected components.”
https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1709952213412413795
“‘Europe isn’t profitable’ – Solar industry warns of hurdles to EU’s green tech drive.
“Europe’s bid to expand its green tech industry faces a host of challenges, including high energy costs and supply chain issues, solar industry representatives gathered in Madrid warned on Thursday.”
“Germany extends emergency coal capacity for another winter…
“The emergency measure decided last year will be extended for the coming winter, keeping some 1.9 GWs of lignite capacity at the ready â adding to Germanyâs existing 45 GW of coal power plants, according to a decision announced on Wednesday (4 October) by the German government.”
“Gas supply disruptions continue to be a risk for Germany, the chief executive of the countryâs biggest utility, RWE, told German publication WirtschaftsWoche in an interview published on Thursday.
“âWe don’t have any buffer in the gas system,â RWEâs chief executive officer Markus Krebber told WirtschaftsWoche, adding that Europeâs biggest economy must accelerate the construction of gas import infrastructure to avoid future shortages.”
“Germany is on the route to recession, economists have warned, after data revealed that its exports contracted more than feared over the summer.
“The volume of products sold abroad dropped by 1.2 per cent in August and 5.8 per cent annually, much worse than analystsâ forecasts, according to Destatis, the German statistics agency.”
“Evergrande, the ârunawayâ developer that could become a wrecking ball for Chinaâs economy…
“Since regulations were tightened in 2020, companies responsible for about 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted, and another major firm, Country Garden, has also battled to avoid missing massive debt repayments, raising the prospect of the risk of contagion.”
“Chinaâs Property Market Crisis Leaves Malaysian Megaproject in Doubt.
“The future of a $100 billion development on Malaysiaâs coast is in doubt due to growing concerns over the financial stability of its largest backer, Chinaâs Country Garden. The property giant has reported billions of dollars in losses â but insists that its showpiece Forest City project in Malaysia is safe.”
“Guatemala protests intensify, demanding prosecutor resignations.
“Tens of thousands of Guatemalans marched peacefully on Thursday for the fourth consecutive day, demanding the resignation of powerful senior prosecutors accused of working to undermine President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s ability to take office.”
“Blackout Risk Pushes Brazil to Diesel as Amazon Drought Worsens.
“Two power plants that burn the fuel will enter in operation to guarantee enough electricity in Rondonia and Acre states during hours of peak demand, as recommended by countryâs grid operator, known as ONS, in a statement late Wednesday. Earlier this week a major hydroelectric dam on the Madeira river was shut due to low water levels…”
“Health crisis in Lebanon is âcatastrophic,â head of parliamentary committee warns.
“âFunds allocated for purchasing medications for cancer, (other) chronic diseases and kidney dialysis are nearly depleted,â Bilal Abdullah, the head of Lebanonâs Parliamentary Health Committee said on Thursday as he warned that the health situation in the country âis catastrophic.â”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2386111/middle-east
“Pakistan has ordered all unauthorised Afghan asylum seekers – an estimated 1.7 million people – to leave the country by November.
“A spike in attacks along the two countries’ border, which Islamabad blames on Afghanistan-based operatives, has escalated tensions this year. It has also fuelled resentment in Islamabad, which on Tuesday announced a crackdown on “illegal” migrants.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67002834
“The looming data centre crunch…
“Vast arrays of servers are stored in rows of energy-intensive âracksâ that produce incredible amounts of heat. This heat requires specialised cooling systems to regulate. A data centre needs to be kept between 18 to 27 degrees Celsius in order to stop the hardware deteriorating.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e597a8b5-f71a-4099-9add-d0e3c1613348
“Achieving net zero will not solve all our climate problems…
“What is required from politicians worldwide is a realisation that we as a world are heading for disaster and that immediate action is required to REDUCE global temperatures. Reassuring the Titanic passengers by having the orchestra playing is not enough.”
https://www.thenational.scot/community/23834726.achieving-net-zero-will-not-solve-climate-problems/
“The convergence: climate and economy become one [a very flattering piece by Ben Shread-Hewitt]…
“Climate & Economy.com is a punchy roundup of news. Focusing each alternate day on one of its titular subjects (excluding Sundays), the blog is a vital resource for anyone studying either sector… Given the breakneck speed of climate and economic turbidity, this rapid-fire platform is just about the only way to stay up to date with the headline news on both.”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-10-04/the-convergence-climate-and-economy-become-one/
You can read the previous âEconomicâ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a âClimateâ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Bonds, bonds, bonds, FX reserves, oil price impacts. I keep seeing these things and while I still dont understand them, I know a lot more than I did after watching (twice, with pauses for a google or two) a recent Nate Hagens podcast interviewing Luke Gromen.
At this rate, I might actually grasp what is happening by the time it happens!
https://youtu.be/bIq0o40Jo80?si=ek-qM7gPOnb55iqE
Resilence.org.. “a punchy roundup of news”..
Congratulations Pan, a flattering piece indeed!
Benâs judgement at resilience.org: rather accurate than flattering. Congratulations nevertheless!
Thanks, all. I’m English so it’s practically a legal obligation to self-deprecate. đ
That is fantastic about the resilience.org post. May it bring you many new readers who will come to value the site as much as those of us who already have for years!
Sorry to be âthat guyâ again, but Shread -Hewittâs flattery still contains that nonsense of hopium fakery that dogs the chattering classes.
A âlong, complex realignmentâ – is that what the devoted readers of C&E are supposed to pine for? That phantasm of âreimaginingâ the hyper-complex super system that Kali exposed yesterday?
C&E needs this comment section, which S-H did not dive into. Otherwise, it becomes just another outpost of information deluge.
The bullshit/horseshit from the âsustainabilityâ establishment so beloved in the academic-publishing-corporate institutions is exemplified by resilience.org and Mr. Shread.
The damage that has been done by humanityâs industrial civilization cannot be wished away, and it is only intensifying. Who but a delusionist would argue otherwise?
(Still, , I hope your Patreon accounts swell to the high double figures after this, PanO)
I agree, Martin. Panopticon puts a lot of trust in his readers to see the BS in the predominantly MSM posts. It was a choice he made from the beginning many years ago versus posting links from independent media.
I’ve been happy to see the comment section grow, and I 100% second, your hope that his Patreon supporters grow or just one-off donations via PayPal. He’s too stiff upper lip British to share, but his family is trying to keep it together, like so many, and so him taking a significant amount of time to put together these threads is a real heroic service IMHO.
“I agree, Martin. Panopticon puts a lot of trust in his readers to see the BS in the predominantly MSM posts.”
I do lay my cards pretty firmly on the table in the “about” sections, which I really need to re-write but still basically stand by – “Industrial civilisation is inherently self-terminating and our predicament all-encompassing.” These threads are telling the story of its collapse.
So, yes, although there may be localised benefits from ecological movements and protests and perhaps even green financial interventions – and I absolutely wouldn’t want to discourage people from engaging in those – my considered opinion is that we cannot alter our overall trajectory.
It was nice to be noticed and complimented though!
Panopticon deserves all the praise – and money – that can come his way.
I completely agree with Kali that “him taking a significant amount of time to put together these threads is a real heroic service”. I only have enough money to support one (or two – Indi) bloggers, but this month had to by tires (tyres for the spelling impaired đ ) and propane.
(I have to use PayPal because of my banks weird “security” measures. But, my difficulties in that regard my be typical for folks in the US. PayPal works just fine.)
As far as Resilience.org goes, yeah, I stopped reading them years ago after they made the decision that all their articles have to end with a hopium paragraph. They simply made themselves irrelevant.
“… this month had to by tires (tyres for the spelling impaired) and propane.”
Honestly, I appreciate every donation and subscription I get. I know these are hard times for many and likely to get harder.
The problem is that we are all about to get what we deserve.
“The supply-side management of the oil market from OPEC+ in recent months could lead to demand destruction as fragile economies may not be able to bear with high oil prices much longer …”
Tverberg had a spa day. She got a new hat and facial?
(Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
đ
Hello Pan,
Well I couldn’t have put it better đ You can be very happy with that. These are analyses that matter. I do want to add that I especially like!!! the in onset ‘opinionless’ daily broad listings. Opinions aplenty and they often ‘block’ the view of the ‘ongoing events’ I did sometimes indicate that ‘personal stories’ could be a valuable empathy enrichment, but I understand that within your daily format, that is an almost impractical research.
Your format fits perfectly within what I think is ‘essential’ namely eht understanding that ‘we’ are not alone in the world in the narrowness of our ‘national’ political and other concerns….
What I really admire in you is that you ‘persevere’ every day…. but of course the covert satisfaction lies in the fact that the ‘enumeration of facts’ substantiate the underlying fateful developments time and again wherever in the world.
Now just wait for the ‘economic clash’ that will undoubtedly come then things will get really exciting đ Let’s see what happens then…. I can remember ‘like yesterday the ‘yellow shirts’ the ‘urban riots’ and the endlessly ongoing summer of 2023 đ
Oh yes that one is still going on by the way…. another heatwave in France this weekend. As we bacon it’s 6pm and 31 degrees at 1000m altitude in what was known!!! as one of the coldest and antiest areas in France…. The billboard of my sous prefecture reads…. ‘the green lung’ of France…(but not for now) đ
Put it up!!!!and thank you.
Thank you, Zip. That warm weather of yours looks like it is extending up into the UK but not as far as the drizzly Hebrides, alas. Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world and that statistic is becoming very palpable now in our daily realities.
I can’t learn nobody nuffen.
There are no economic problems as long as, money printings,bailouts for banks & corporations,debt that can’t be repaid, manipulated interest rates & permanent tax breaks continue while tax breaks for the middle & lower classes end.
Everybody knows that!
Almost forgot; Stupid is unfixable.
My grandmother had 11 siblings(overpopulation). I lived the Depression thru them. Today’s baboon brains don’t have a clue until shit hits their front door. Halloween is near, stomp out that bag that is on fire on your front porch & see what you have left.
We may be reaching the limits of what the sort of financial sleight of hand you mention can paper over, TR. US labour market running too hot and putting pressure on the Fed today, I see:
“Global bond markets resumed their sharp sell-off after the US added nearly double the number of new jobs predicted last month. US payrolls added 336,000 roles in September, vastly overshooting estimates of around 170,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics…
“The massive shock to markets from the latest jobs data will spark fears that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates higher for longer.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/06/ftse-100-markets-news-house-prices-live-bonds-oil-latest/