Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

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“Bloodbath: Fear is rising that markets are about to break something.

“The continuing sell-off in the US bond market, where yields are hitting levels not seen since 2007, is steadily increasing the risk that something within the financial system will break.

“The yields on two-year US Treasury notes were already at 16-year highs. Overnight, yields on 10 and 30-year bonds joined them, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield reaching 4.8 per cent. It was last at that level in August 2007.”

https://www.watoday.com.au/business/markets/bloodbath-fear-is-rising-that-markets-are-about-to-break-something-20231004-p5e9k6.html


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“Global stocks sink as US bond yields hit 2007 levels…

“The surge in US government borrowing costs weighed down on stock markets across the world. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 430 points or 1.3pc to close at 33,002.38, its biggest one-day decline since March… Equity markets also tumbled across Europe.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/03/surging-bond-yields-spark-global-stock-market-sell-off/


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“The giant asset price crash that nobody is talking about… Away from the limelight, a silent financial crisis is brewing…

“…how about this for an asset price crash: when issued less than two years ago, the March 2073 Index-Linked Gilt was priced at around £330 per unit of stock; the current price is just £62, or less than a fifth of its value when initially sold.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/04/giant-asset-price-crash-nobody-talking-about-bonds/


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“Global M&As slow as central banks tighten monetary policy.

“The total value of mergers and acquisitions worldwide fell 24% on the year to $1.19 trillion during the April to September period, marking the second straight year of declines, according to Refinitiv data compiled by Nikkei. The sharp fall highlights businesses’ reluctance to make expensive deals as interest rates rise and uncertainty grows…”

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Global-M-As-slow-as-central-banks-tighten-monetary-policy


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“Total US debt rises by $275 billion in ONE DAY to a record $33.44 trillion, according to Zerohedge.

“Exactly 2 weeks ago, total US debt hit $33 trillion for the first time ever. This means that the US has added $32 billion in debt per day for the last 2 weeks. At the current pace, the US will add $1 trillion of debt in a month. The debt ceiling “crisis” is far from over.”

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709323926860694004


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“Opec warns of energy crunch due to US$12trn ‘underinvestment’…

“Al Ghais added that halting investment in the oil and gas sector would be a dangerous move. “Some have called for stopping investments in oil. We believe this is equally dangerous. It will lead to volatility in the future and possible supply shortages,” he told the BBC.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1028476/opec-head-warns-of-energy-crunch-due-to-underinvestment-1028476.html


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“Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light blend for Asian buyers for the fifth month in a row, Reuters has reported, citing strong demand for the commodity.

“The news outlet polled five respondents who said Riyadh could raise the price of the medium sour crude for November delivery by some $0.45 per barrel.”

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-May-Raise-Its-Oil-Prices-For-A-Fifth-Consecutive-Month.html


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“Russia declines to say how long fuel export ban will last.

“Russia is setting no time frame for the fuel export ban it introduced last month, and it will remain in place as long as necessary to stabilise prices and address shortages on the domestic market, Interfax cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-declines-say-how-long-fuel-export-ban-will-last-2023-10-03/


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“US shale bosses vow to hold back drilling despite rising oil price.

“America’s shale pioneers have vowed to keep a lid on drilling even if oil hits $100 a barrel, citing a need to maintain capital discipline and what they claim is a “war” on fossil fuels waged by the Biden administration.”

https://www.ft.com/content/056217fb-7e80-4da1-b6b8-489f8b20510e


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“Renewable energy stocks have sold off sharply in recent months, significantly underperforming fossil fuel companies, as higher interest rates take a toll on the sector…

““There’s a dark cloud hanging over green stocks,” said Martin Frandsen, a portfolio manager at Principal Asset Management.”

https://www.ft.com/content/07443afb-b935-492d-8711-8c47e4353c59


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“The renewables sector is crashing…

“Embracing lofty alternative energy goals was fine when states enjoyed unlimited funding at near-zero interest rates. In such an environment, why not placate single-issue voters with expensive promises? But this dynamic changes rapidly once capital is no longer free.”

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-renewables-sector-is-crashing/


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“Climate change is expected to impose “substantial financial costs” on U.S. households in the coming years, according to a new report by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

“Between 2018 and 2022, weather and climate disasters cost more than $617 billion, it found — a record. Within the last year, 13% of Americans reported economic hardship due to severe weather events and disasters.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/02/climate-change-could-devastate-household-finances-us-treasury-warns.html


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“[UK] Factories continue sharpest fall in output in 15 years…

“A reduction in export demand caused by greater uncertainty over the health of the global economy weighed on Britain’s manufacturers. The PMI noted that lower spending in Europe, the United States, China and Brazil resulted in new orders for UK exports contracting for the twentieth month in a row.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/factories-continue-sharpest-fall-in-output-in-15-years-zwvtw6s2c


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“Quantitative easing, the policy tool deployed across the Group of Seven to stimulate economies through the financial crisis and pandemic, is rapidly falling out of favor in Britain.

“…many are cooling rapidly on the merits of the tool as its cost to taxpayers and side effects become apparent. The result is likely to make it more difficult for the UK central bank to pull the QE lever in the same way again if the economy sours.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/britain-sours-on-895-billion-of-quantitative-easing-as-side-effects-hit-home-1.1979418


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“The interest the [UK] government pays on national debt has reached a 20-year high as the rate on 30-year bonds reaches 5.05%.

“A rise in the cost of borrowing comes at a difficult time for the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, as he prepares for the autumn statement on 22 November. Mr Hunt has already made clear that tax cuts will not be announced in November.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67002195


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“€3 trillion: Is France’s debt out of control?

“France’s debt went from €1 trillion in 2003 to €3 trillion this year. What happened? France’s economy minister Bruno Le Maire says he wants to slash the country’s multi-trillion euro debt, starting by launching the 2024 budget plan he introduced in September.”

https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/03/3-trillion-is-frances-debt-out-of-control


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“Is Italy headed for a debt crisis?

“…Discounting the possibility of an Italian sovereign debt market crisis despite that country’s deteriorating economic fundamentals could be of considerable consequence for the U.S. and world financial markets, since Italy has an economy and a government bond market that is some 10 times the size of that of Greece.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4230652-is-italy-headed-for-a-debt-crisis/


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“The Japanese yield curve is the steepest it has ever been.

“…the Bank of Japan, like the fed, may be forced by inflation to listen to the bond market and pivot… Why does the BOJ care so much about Japanese yields remaining low? This is why: Japanese debt: GDP is now over 260%. This is manageable with rates at 0%, but not at any multiple above that. Unfortunately, inflation might not let them keep their current policy.”

https://twitter.com/Swordfishv44183/status/1708975819824013358


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“Japan’s central bank buys $12.7bn of bonds as yields hit highest in a decade.

“Japan’s central bank made unscheduled purchases of government debt on Wednesday as yields on benchmark bonds hit their highest mark in a decade, while a global market sell-off also continued to drive US Treasury yields to 16-year highs.”

https://www.ft.com/content/8bad0833-c293-44e0-899b-dad537110a07


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“India’s Growth Story May Not Have a Happy Ending…

“What the data suggests… is that India’s numbers are unsustainable. They’re driven by debt-fueled household consumption and government investment. Neither can form the basis of a long-term growth strategy for India.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/10/02/india-s-economy-will-stumble-because-of-low-savings/b80f2bea-617b-11ee-b406-3ea724995806_story.html


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“Warm Fridges And Rotten Meat: Blackouts In Tajikistan Disrupt Lives, Damage Businesses…

“People in poverty-stricken Tajikistan are used to crippling electricity rationing during the winter, when most of the country has electricity for about 10 hours a day. Officials often blame the rationing on decreased water levels in dam reservoirs.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-blackouts-economic-damage/32619963.html


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“Fuel scarcity hits Malawi again.

“The Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) through spokesperson Fitina Khonje has said the fuel scarcity is due to forex shortage in Malawi. The country has been facing recurring fuel shortages for close to two years now with the root cause being the lack of foreign exchange.”

https://malawi24.com/2023/10/02/fuel-scarcity-hits-malawi-again/


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“South Africa culls about 7.5 million chickens in an effort to contain bird flu outbreaks…

“The outbreaks are hitting an industry already struggling due to an electricity crisis. Breitenbach said South Africa has had three major bird flu outbreaks in recent years, and the latest ones were “by far the worst,” already costing the industry losses of at least $25 million.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/south-africa-culls-25m-chickens-effort-bird-flu-103681939


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“Brazil to begin dredging stretches of the Amazon fluvial network because of the drought…

“…the ministries of Transport, Ports and Airports will be investing millions to dredge the Madeira and Solimoes, crucial waterways for transporting goods and products in the Amazon region, including the Manaus Free Trade Zone and for transporting people.”

https://en.mercopress.com/2023/10/03/brazil-to-begin-dredging-stretches-of-the-amazon-fluvial-network-because-of-the-drought


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“Have some economists severely underestimated the financial hit from climate change? Recent evidence suggests yes…

“…severe climate change would be a global shock that is wholly outside our experience. Inevitably, models can’t come close to capturing the upheavals climate change could cause in markets fundamental to human life, such as agriculture.”

https://theconversation.com/have-some-economists-severely-underestimated-the-financial-hit-from-climate-change-recent-evidence-suggests-yes-214579


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“Export Restrictions Causing Food Prices to Rise.

“Over a period of years, food prices change sharply. In 2007 and 2008, rice and wheat prices doubled. Glauber, who also is a former economist from the Department of Agriculture, said changes are likely to continue. “I think increased volatility is certainly the new normal,” he said.”

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/export-restrictions-causing-food-prices-to-rise/7289271.html


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“At WTO, growing disregard for trade rules shows world is fragmenting.

“Nothing illustrates the crisis at the World Trade Organization more than the piling up of unresolved disputes and the growing list of what it terms the “trade concerns” of its members… The WTO has warned a “polycrisis” of pandemic, war in Ukraine and inflation is sapping faith in globalisation. The result is a growing disregard for global trading rules among WTO members.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/wto-growing-disregard-trade-rules-shows-world-is-fragmenting-2023-10-02/


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“India orders Canada to remove 41 diplomats from Delhi embassy.

“India has told Canada it must remove 41 diplomats from its embassy in Delhi amid a continuing diplomatic spat over Canadian accusations that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/03/india-orders-canada-to-remove-41-diplomats-from-delhi-embassy-reports


You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.

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