Dear readers, a heads-up that this will be my last climate thread until Saturday 30th Sept (last Economic one is on Monday), as I’m taking a break. Thank you all for bearing with me, especially my donors and subscribers – you are appreciated!
A small group of volunteers will very kindly be filling in for me when I’m away, so you can continue to follow climate and economic news here in our usual fashion.
“Odds that 2023 will be Earth’s hottest year have doubled in just a month, NOAA reports…
“Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculate that there’s a 93.42 percent chance that 2023 will become the hottest year according to a monthly climate report released Thursday. That percentage is nearly double what was estimated a month earlier (46.82 percent) and a whopping 86 percentage points higher than the beginning of the year projection (6.9 percent)…
“The calculation — with four months remaining in the year — underscores how dramatically observations of global air and ocean temperatures and ice extent have diverged from anything scientists have previously witnessed, or that they would have predicted at the start of the year.”
“August 2023 Globally, according to JMA, had a temperature anomaly of +0.66C above the 1991-2020 baseline and was by far the hottest August on records 0.34C hotter of the second August 2016 !
“The world is in clearly uncharted territories, well above any early 2023 forecast.”
“Earth’s warmest August saw 65 countries set record high temperatures: Report.
“Thirteen per cent of the Earth’s surface, spanning 65 countries, experienced record high temperatures in August, while the rest of the world braved significantly higher temperatures compared to the 1951-1980 average, according to a new analysis conducted by an independent US-based non-profit organisation.”
“What this month’s deadly floods tell us about our global climate future. Scientists have long predicted that intense floods would come with rising temperatures…
“Yet “I’m a little shocked at how many are coming this year,” said Michael Bosilovich, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who focuses on Earth’s water cycle.”
“El Nino is getting most of the media attention, but IMO the ocean heatwaves elsewhere will also be messing with weather patterns in coming months.
“Note those dark red colors are 9 deg F above average, which is an absurd amount of ocean warming.” [Dr Jennifer Francis]
“The Air Was Hot This Year, But It’s Nothing Compared to the Ocean.
“…here’s the scary part. The “hottest year on record” in 1998 wasn’t as hot as our cool years are now. 2023 is making 2016 look cool. And by 2040 this year’s record highs will feel like an anomalously cool year. That’s because the amount of energy trapped in the oceans and the air combined, is only going up, and up, and up.”
“What’s the most important graphic to show the true f&%kery of our predicament?
“It’s not the huge number of local catastrophes, new highs for greenhouse gasses, record low sea-ice extent, record global or sea surface temperature.
“It’s this — the Earth Energy Imbalance:”
“Historic late warmth yesterday in Lithuania:
“The temperature reached 30.4C [86.7F] at Birstonas, which is the latest 30C ever recorded in Lithuania, two days later than the 31.2C at Druskininkai of 11 September 2016. Kudos LHMT for the input.”
“Luxembourg sets new September temperature records.
“The beginning of September in 2023 has officially been declared the warmest on record, according to data compiled by Météolux. The weather station at Findel Airport corroborates this, revealing that the initial ten days of September saw an average temperature of 20.3°C, surpassing the previous record set in September 2005, which stood at 20.2°C.”
“Thawing permafrost in the Alps… When the mountain breaks…
“The Spitze Stein, a secondary peak of the Doldenhorn, has become unstable. Because thousands of years of ice are thawing in the mountain, to which the Swiss say “Spitze Stei”, huge amounts of rock are in motion. At any time, millions of cubic meters could give way to gravity…”
“France investigates deaths of four Champagne workers in heatwave…
“Prosecutors in the cities of Rheims and Châlons-en-Champagne said two men died in recent days while picking grapes, a woman died at home a few days after feeling faint during her vineyard work, while a fourth died in hospital after falling from a straddle tractor without showing any physical injuries from the fall.”
“Climate change shakes up the recipe at Champagne’s oldest maker…
“…climate change poses an existential dilemma for vignerons. If their wines are defined by specific blends of limited grape varieties — as in much of Europe’s appellation systems — then rising average temperatures and shortened growing seasons will result in riper, more alcoholic wines.”
“40,000 people in France still without drinking water amid drought…
“In an interview with French daily Libération, Béchu explained that despite increased rainfall in some parts of the country over the summer, nearly two-thirds of the country’s water tables remained below seasonal averages. The minister specified that 62 percent of groundwater sources were below seasonal averages, and 18 percent were “very low”…”
“Summer 2023 in Spain was the 3rd hottest on records, only behind 2022 and 2003. 4 of the 5 hottest summers in Spain occurred after 2015.”
“Flash Floods Paralyse Madrid Motorway…
“On Friday, September 15, a torrential downpour in Madrid wreaked havoc on the M-40 motorway, leading to widespread flooding and several cars being swept away… The DGT has announced that traffic on the M-40 near Coslada has been rerouted in both directions due to flood water.”
“France is sending military forces to distribute water on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, which is facing an unprecedented water crisis prompted by the island cluster’s most severe drought in decades.
“Troops with the French Foreign Legion and French navy based in the region will work with local authorities to ensure water supplies to local populations…”
“Liberia to concede territory to UAE firm in carbon offset deal.
“A carbon offset deal could see Liberia concede 10 percent of its territory to a private Emirati company, extinguishing customary land rights and giving the United Arab Emirates (UAE) pollution rights equivalent to the forest’s carbon sequestration.”
“Algeria: Emergency crews working to extinguish wildfires…
“As of late Sept. 15, emergency crews are working to extinguish several wildfires that have broken out in Algeria’s northeastern Bejaia and Tizi-Ouzou provinces… responders warn that the blazes are spreading quickly due to strong winds. High temperatures are expected to persist in the affected area over the weekend.”
“‘Second humanitarian crisis’ feared in wake of Libya floods as hopes of finding survivors fade.
“Aid groups have warned of the growing risk posed by the spread of disease that could compound the humanitarian crisis in Libya, as hopes of finding more survivors fade days after deadly flooding. Sunday’s flood submerged the port city of Derna, washing thousands of people and homes out to sea…”
“Türkiye sees driest August in over three decades amid drought crisis…
“Surprisingly, when compared to August of the previous year, an increase in rainfall was observed only in the normally driest regions of the country, the Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia regions… the Marmara Region and nearly the entire Black Sea region were classified as “severe drought sites.”
“Water shortage in Central Asia worsening, Uzbekistan warns.
“Serious water shortages plaguing Central Asian countries have become “irreversible” and will only get worse, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev warned on Friday, as global warming and increased competition weigh on resources.”
“The average temperature in Xinjiang in the summer of 2023 was 24.1°C [75.4F], 1.6°C higher than normal, setting the hottest record in history.
“The average precipitation in Xinjiang is 44.9 mm, 40% less than normal, the lowest in summer history.”
“Pakistan is living an unprecedented heat wave for September with brutally hot days and nights.
“The town of Multan has recorded 9 consecutive Tmins >29C (from 29.2C to 30.8C / 87.4F). Highest Sept Tmin on records at Faisalbad with 29.8C. This September persistent heat is unprecedented.”
“Kashmir stares at water crisis as dry spell expected to continue…
“The dry spell as per the weather office is expected to continue and the water problem is set to assume an alarming proportion in Kashmir Valley, particularly in the Jammu region. The fact that almost all water bodies have dried up and the PHE department finds it tough to arrange from any viable source has worsened the situation.”
“10 all-time rain records broken in Himachal Pradesh this monsoon…
“The oldest record being broken dates back to 1927. On July 9, Una recorded 228.5 mm [9 inches] rainfall, breaking the previous record of 224 mm precipitation on July 22, 1927. “It’s unprecedented to have so many records broken in a single season. It also shows the unusual rainfall the state had this monsoon,” said Surender Paul, Director, Meteorological Centre, Shimla.”
“Western Guangdong, China, has received 1,047mm [41.2 inches] of rainfall in seven days, and another 200-300mm [8 – 12 inches] are expected to fall in the next three days.”
“Prolonged flash floods and landslides, in Vietnam’s northern mountainous region have killed five people, while four others remained missing.
“Vietnam’s National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control said on Thursday… A state of natural disaster emergency had been announced in the tourism spot of Sa Pa Town.”
“Climate change drives hotter, more frequent fire seasons in the Northern Territory [Australia]…
“Senior fire management researcher Andrew Edwards said periods of more intense-than-usual rainfalls over the Top End’s wet season, quickly followed by longer dry seasons, are becoming more frequent.”
“Exceptional spring triple heat waves coming in the Southern Hemisphere.
Temperatures will reach 42C/43C [109.4F] in Paraguay with a potential record of September hottest night for the whole Hemisphere. 40/42C in NE South Africa, 30C/35C in New South Wales, Australia and >25C in New Zealand.”
“August 2023 in Brazil was another exceptionally hot month.
“Temperature anomalies were generally +1C/+2C in the East and West and widespread >+3C above average in Central areas with many records broken during the whole month.”
“Wildfires, Deforestation Spark Emergency in Brazilian Amazon.
“Wildfires and a historic drought in the Brazilian state of Amazonas have sparked an environmental emergency as authorities struggle to contain blazes in the heart of the world’s largest rainforest… Smoke from the burning has darkened the sky in Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon basin, and other parts of the region this month.”
“Another record day in the Caribbean and South America
“MARTINIQUE: 36.6C [97.9F] Ducos, HIGHEST RELIABLE TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN MARTINIQUE; FRENCH GUIANA: 37.0C Maripasoula monthly record; BRAZIL (yesterday): 41.3C Balsas all time high tied… Outrageous but the worst has yet to come.”
“Dominican Republic suspends visas to Haiti citizens amidst water conflict.
“The Dominican Republic announced on Monday it suspended the issuance of visas to citizens of Haiti and is also considering the closure of borders between the two nations following a conflict over water access. This issue stems from a contentious situation involving Haiti’s construction of a canal.”
“August 2023 in Mexico was exceptionally hot.
“With an average temperature of 27.2C [81F] and an anomaly of +2.5C above the 1991-2020 it was the HOTTEST August on records. This follows the hottest June, hottest July (hottest month overall),hottest August and hottest summer. Exceptional.”
“‘Sitting in a sweat box’: How record heat shut down schools in the East and Midwest…
“In recent years, this extreme heat, as well as more frequent heat waves, have put pressure on school districts to adapt to the climate crisis to protect students. In the East and Midwest, temperatures reached well over 80 degrees in September, making it difficult for much learning to occur in old buildings without adequate cooling.”
“‘It’s an emergency’: Midwest towns scramble as drought threatens drinking water…
“This part of Kansas is suffering what the U.S. Drought Monitor characterizes as exceptional drought, its most severe category… residents are facing unprecedented challenges with drinking water supplies. This corner of the state, which lacks the vast underground aquifers that sit below much of Kansas, is overly reliant on surface water such as lakes and rivers.”
“The floods this week in Massachusetts that put a few dams at risk have raised concern the structures may increasingly be at risk as the region is hit by stronger and wetter storms.
“There are thousands of dams across New England and many were built decades if not centuries ago, often to help power textile mills, store water or supply irrigation to farms.”
“Rain reaches New England, Atlantic Canada as Hurricane Lee pushes north…
“In addition to ferocious winds, Lee could also unleash up to 6 inches of rain in far northern Maine on Saturday, with neighboring New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island also at risk of seeing heavy precipitation. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a state of emergency Friday due to the storm.”
“As climate catastrophes rise, reinsurers reduce risks…
“While this may make business sense, it raises the question of whether individuals and businesses will be able to protect themselves against the effects of climate change if their insurance companies cannot even get coverage themselves.”
“Climate change takes habitat from big fish, the ocean’s key predators.
“This year’s marine heat waves and spiking ocean temperatures foretell big changes in the future for some of the largest fish in the sea, such as sharks, tunas and swordfish… Large fish are important to healthy oceans because many of them, such as white sharks, are apex predators and serve as vital pieces of the top of the food chain.”
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with an “Economic” thread.
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