“WTO warns about fragmentation of global trade into allied blocs… Geopolitical tensions are changing trade flows as countries switch supply chains to allies rather than the most efficient exporter, the World Trade Organization has said.
“The value of traded goods and services continues to rise, but it is growing faster within allied blocs than as a whole, the Geneva-based organisation said in its annual (opens a new window)world trade report, warning this would lead to higher costs and more conflict.”
https://www.ft.com/content/02bbdde1-2a9d-416d-953e-68d205be3e19
“Global companies to hike security spending as threats rise – survey.
“Almost half of security chiefs at the world’s biggest companies expect to increase their budgets significantly in the next year as they see economic and social unrest driving more cases of theft, fraud and the leaking of sensitive information.”
“Global corporate interest payment burden rises to record $125bn.
“Corporations across the world now shoulder roughly $12.75 trillion in interest-bearing debt, a Nikkei analysis shows, nearly double the liabilities held during the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.”
“A new report confirms that pensions assets last year suffered their worst collapse since the financial crash 15 years ago.
“The 300 largest pension funds in the world showed that assets under management tumbled by 12.9 per cent, according to an annual study by the Willis Towers Watson-founded Thinking Ahead Institute.”
“If it seems like [US household] liquidity is drying up, that’s because it is.
“According to JP Morgan, current excess household liquidity stands at $1.4 trillion. However, they expect that liquidity to be fully depleted by May 2024. Excess household savings are being depleted at a rate of $100 billion per month and expected to be depleted this quarter. This is why household debt levels are skyrocketing.”
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1701726277403598888
“US consumers are set to cut their spending in early 2024 for the first time since the pandemic as they battle looming financial pressures, a new survey reveals.
“Americans have so far defied analysts’ expectations of a recession by maintaining strong spending to bolster the economy… But experts say that may be coming to an end.”
“Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows.
“American consumers are worried about access to credit amid persistently higher interest rates and tighter standards at banks, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.”
“Adams sends ‘warning signal,’ orders NYC agencies to cut budgets by 5% amid migrant crisis.
“Mayor Eric Adams has said many times that the migrant crisis will impact every single part of the city, and now we know he has directed all city agencies to cut their budgets by 5%. That includes essential services like sanitation, the fire department and the NYPD.”
https://abc7ny.com/eric-adams-migrant-crisis-nyc-immigration/13766716/
“UK economy fares worse than expected in July as strikes weigh.
“Britain’s economy contracted at the fastest pace this year in an unexpectedly poor reading for the month of July, with strikes in hospitals and schools weighing on output, official data showed on Wednesday. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product shrank 0.5% in July…”
“UK ‘mortgage meltdown’ looms amid ‘terrifying’ growth in arrears.
“Mortgage arrears jumped by 13% in the second quarter of the year… Rising interest rates and unemployment over recent months have put pressure on household disposable incomes, forcing some families to cut or suspend their monthly mortgage payments.”
“UK interest rates should rise further, says Bank of England official.
“One of the Bank of England’s more hawkish policymakers on Monday indicated that she did not back pausing interest rate rises, arguing that the UK central bank still needed to do more to ensure tighter monetary policy was working.”
https://www.ft.com/content/03faa151-2d82-4171-9192-b8fc7db4b717
“Europe’s high gas prices hit industrial output.
“Europe’s gas consumption is down by between 10% and 15% compared with the decade before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as high prices enforce a sharp reduction in fuel use especially by energy-intensive manufacturers.”
“Coal Use In Europe Rises In Shocking Reversal…
“…in 2022, coal consumption in the EU reversed direction and grew by 2.0%. This was a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and EU countries replacing Russian natural gas with coal.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-europe-rises-shocking-reversal-210000553.html
“Europe’s solar industry warns of bankruptcy risk as prices drop…
“Industry trade group SolarPower Europe said in a letter sent to the European Commission that European companies risk bankruptcies, which they said would hurt the EU’s goal of reshoring 30 GW of the solar PV supply chain.”
“EU Parliament passes bill hiking renewable energy targets…
“The law significantly raises the EU’s renewable energy targets, requiring 42.5% of EU energy to be renewable by 2030, replacing a current 32% target for that date. It faced a tough passage through negotiations among EU countries’ governments, and only secured support after France won carve-outs for nuclear energy…”
“European governments go direct to citizens to fund borrowing…
“…Analysts note another advantage of opening government bond issuance to citizens is that it provides a safe place to put savings, as, unlike with high street banks, there is no deposit insurance limit. It also cuts out the middleman as some banks take savings and invest the proceeds in government bonds.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2e587080-4560-444f-9c9b-0be50c95553f
“Italy’s Lampedusa island hit with record migrant arrivals.
“The Italian island of Lampedusa is struggling with a record number of landings from boat migrants, local officials said on Tuesday, describing the situation as “dramatic.” Lampedusa, Italy’s southernmost point and a first port of call for people crossing from North Africa, has long been a flashpoint of Europe’s migration crisis.”
“Police round up migrants in Serbia and report finding weapons in raid of a border area with Hungary.
“Police in Serbia said they rounded up hundreds of migrants and found automatic weapons during a raid Tuesday along the border with Hungary, the location of frequently reported clashes between groups of smugglers exploiting the hardship of people trying to reach Western Europe.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/serbia-ap-police-hungary-western-europe-b2409904.html
“Cyprus migrants face wave of attacks as hostility brews…
“Experts blame the increased mainstreaming of xenophobia in Cypriot politics and media, fuelled by the spread of disinformation and the mismanagement of the large number of people trying to reach Europe.”
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/cyprus-migrants-face-wave-attacks-hostility-brews
“Specter of [food] shortages looms in wake of Thessaly floods…
“Greece’s breadbasket, Thessaly is responsible for producing 70% of the country’s sugar beet, 50% of industrial tomatoes and major pulses like peas, 30% of cotton and barley, and 20% of hay used in livestock farming, not to mention much of its fruit – especially pears and apples – and vegetables.”
“Morocco earthquake damage could wipe out as much as 8% of GDP…
“USGS, which among other things monitors the impact of earthquakes around the world, warned of severe potential economic losses for Morocco as a result of the quake. It reported that “extensive damage” is likely.”
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/morocco-earthquake-damage-could-wipe-out-much-8-gdp
“Egypt ‘second most at risk of debt crisis after Ukraine’…
“The data showed that, taking into account public debt, interest costs and yield on dollar bonds, Egypt’s economy was the most at risk in the Middle East.
“Three other Middle Eastern countries – Tunisia, Bahrain and Jordan – were also among those most exposed.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-debt-risk-country-second-most-at-risk
“A year since Iran unrest, hijab takes backseat to economic woes [Iran]…
“Women in Iran, especially in Tehran, have increasingly been flouting the mandatory headscarf despite government efforts to tighten controls over the dress code. But across the country, where inflation is hovering at 50 percent and the prices of commodities are skyrocketing, many believe the economy takes precedence.”
“Afghan drivers criticise hike in fuel price, calls on Taliban to pay attention…
“Afghan people have been leaving their homes because of poverty, insecurity and conflicts in the country. The country has a significant problem with food insecurity, and women, young people, and families with members who are disabled are particularly affected.”
“Protests and strikes are spreading across the whole country [Pakistan] as the cost-of-living crisis continues to bite.
“The recent government decision to raise electricity costs – to meet IMF requirements amid extremely poor public finances – was particularly criticised. Pakistan is still struggling against an economic crisis with no end in sight.”
“Sixteen Months into Sri Lanka’s Financial Crisis, Crucial Medicines Remain in Short Supply…
““Sri Lankan patients who are relying on free medicines through the government hospitals in many cases seem to not have most simple consumables items or the essential medicines in some of the peripheral hospitals in this dynamic situation Sri Lanka is in,” said Ayusha Amarakone…”
“Colombia Is On The Brink Of A Natural Gas Crisis.
“Colombia’s proven oil and natural gas reserves can last only around seven more years at the current extraction rate… El Niño weather phenomenon threatens Colombia’s reliance on hydroelectric power, increasing dependence on gas-fired power plants.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Colombia-Is-On-The-Brink-Of-A-Natural-Gas-Crisis.html
“South Africa Burns More Diesel in Vain Bid to Boost Power Output.
“South African electricity outages remain at record levels despite the state power utility burning through vast quantities of diesel to bolster output. Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. said Tuesday that Stage 6 power cuts, whereby 6,000 megawatts of capacity is removed from the grid to prevent a total blackout, will be scheduled throughout the week.”
“Oil Prices Continue To Climb Toward $100…
“As the oil markets anticipate US inflation data for August and the ECB’s interest rate decision later this week, supply disruptions in Libya have added a little upside to prices again, with ICE Brent moving past the $91 per barrel mark.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Continue-To-Climb-Toward-100.html
“World at ‘beginning of end’ of fossil fuel era, says global energy agency…
“Governments across the world have increased investments in renewables in response to climate change and the energy crisis stoked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but many have faced a backlash over the expense during a cost of living crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9df6003b-3760-4eee-b189-92c0247fa1a5
“International Atomic Energy Agency to run out of money within weeks, Grossi warns.
“Member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now owe more than EUR200 million (USD214 million), and Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned that unless payments are made, then in a month’s time “we will run out of money … I will not be able to pay salaries or for the lights … we will grind to a halt”.”
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IAEA-to-run-out-of-money-within-weeks,-Grossi-warn
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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I find it curious that there are rarely comments on your economy threads as compared to the climate ones. I find the economic ones just as compelling! Just today – the migration issue is getting ever more huge, numerous countries in definite collapse and not least when the very mainstream Financial Times says ““World at ‘beginning of end’ of fossil fuel era” – yeah, OK. Get out the popcorn and your beverage of choice, folks. Readers here have seen all this coming for many years…and here we are.
France is the only country in the EU that has had a savings system for centuries where citizens and the state ‘work together’. This was once created in 1816. It is a kind of ‘Rhineland’ model a middle way between unbridled market liberalism and the state-run model.
It has the advantage that unlike the Anglo-Saxons, the French spqren extremely much and the interest rate on those ‘savings bank’ systems is also very high. I have about four of them myself and that is not exceptional>
The government uses that money to fund projects they deem ‘of public interest’ such as social housing, transition and eco projects etc. Bovdneiden it prevents French citizens from borrowing very much on the ‘market’ . Accumulated private debt for citizens is significantly lower than in other EU countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark.
The diskuussie that will soon erupt is whether the state can start using the ‘saved money’ for their new generation of nuclear power plants
They will almost have to because for the state-owned EDF, it seems to be the only possibility for financing that they could never get on the market. EDF has had a top year! with a big growth in production. France will undoubtedly regain its position as energy exporter in the EU.
Hence their huge opposition to the liberalised electricity market in the EU
Left or right the French savings bank accounts will be used for a bright nuclear future for France 🙂
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-eco/le-livret-a-pour-financer-le-nucleaire_5634947.html
That’s interesting, Zip. The UK government, AFAIK, has only really done this in wartime via National War Bonds – some of which took a very long time to ultimately pay off.
“UK bonds that financed first world war to be redeemed 100 years later.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/31/uk-first-world-war-bonds-redeemed
yes it is an interesting system… here is a wiki that gives you some insight into the ‘history’…. by the way there are the same problems ‘here’ as in ‘the rest’ of the EU only they look slightly different because of the historically grown ‘Gaullist state influence on the economy’. The French state is a shareholder in about 3,000 French companies, bou compare that with ‘the rest’. 😉
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caisse_des_d%C3%A9p%C3%B4ts_et_consignations
How’s that unruly helter skelter capitalism thing,working out?
Apparently the working poor & almost poor are content with the situation.
Waiting for feces to hit the fan.