“Modi’s unifying message for the G20 summit looks dated as globalisation falls apart.
“India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, will have the unenviable task of forging agreement between the world’s biggest developed and developing countries when G20 leaders gather in Delhi for their annual summit later this week.
“The scale of the challenge will be reflected in two significant no-shows. Vladimir Putin will not be leaving Moscow and nor will Xi Jinping be flying in from Beijing. The theme of the meeting is “One Earth, One Family, One Future” but in truth the G20 is riven by conflict and struggling to remain relevant.”
“Economists grow gloomier on 2024 as central banks delay rate cuts…
“The caution centres on the belief that persistently high demand will keep inflation higher for longer, forcing rate-setters in advanced economies to keep borrowing costs elevated well into next year… In many countries, including the US, “there will be a recession, it’s just going to come later”, said Sheets.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a9a4301d-5b6a-432e-849e-1f5d6e904da3
“U.S. deficit explodes even as economy grows… A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time…
“The unexpected deficit surge, which comes amid signs of strong growth in the economy overall, is likely to shape a fierce debate on Capitol Hill about the nation’s fiscal policies as lawmakers face a potential government shutdown this fall and choices over trillions of dollars in expiring tax cuts.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/us-debt-deficit-rises-interest-rate/
“US credit card debt has officially surpassed $1 trillion. This is not sustainable with credit card rates above 20%.”
https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1698387882321600553
“Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow.
“Some of the largest U.S. insurance companies say extreme weather has led them to end certain coverages, exclude natural disaster protections and raise premiums.. Major insurers say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/
“It looks like a commercial property crash is looming for Dublin…
“This is not [purely] an Irish phenomenon. It’s particularly acute in San Francisco (where vacancy grew from about 4 per cent pre-pandemic to 31.8 per cent now), and Manhattan (22.4 per cent). Office blocks in Manhattan are being offloaded at knock-down prices.”
“UK on recession alert after big falls in factory output and house prices.
“Policymakers in the UK have been put on recession high alert after surging interest rates triggered a slump in factory output and the biggest annual drop in house prices since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s.”
“Oil production has slumped to a record low as the UK industry’s future hangs in the balance.
“In the first six months of this year, 17.4 million tons of crude was extracted from the North Sea and the mainland, according to Department for Energy and Net Zero estimates. This compares with 20 million tons in the same period last year and nearly 50 million tons in 2003.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12474707/British-oil-production-sinks-North-Sea.html
“Germany, Italy highlight growing European nuclear divide.
“Germany’s place as the leader of Europe’s anti-nuclear lobby has been further solidified as Chancellor Olaf Sholz doubled down on his view that nuclear has no place in the country’s energy mix, while Italy has vowed to speed up its integration of nuclear.”
“A winter energy crunch in Europe looks a distinct possibility…
“According to politicians like the German energy minister, Robert Habeck, the worst of the energy crisis is over. Yet, as we shall see, it’s a little early to be so confident… The harsh reality is that for at least another two or three winters, Europe will have to hope for mild weather…”
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-winter-energy-crunch-in-europe-looks-a-distinct-possibility/
“German business urges help for crisis-hit building industry.
“Business groups and economists have called on the German government to intervene to help the crisis-hit construction industry, as a wave of insolvencies claims a growing number of high-profile property developers.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b82a428e-2031-49b6-8a45-f975252f26f5
“China property downturn spreads to trophy office buildings…
“While cost-cutting by companies represents a sensible response to tougher times, it threatens to make things worse in China just as growing fears about the property sector have prompted global banks to scale back their forecasts for growth in Asia’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a5978660-f0a0-452f-a745-74515622b44e
“China’s biggest banks are extending billions of dollars to Russia as sanctions pressure western lenders to exit the country, according to a Financial Times report…
“The four biggest banks in China have quadrupled their exposure to Russia’s banking sector since the war in Ukraine began, according to data analyzed for the FT by the Kyiv School of Economics.”
“With Russia and the West distracted, 120,000 face [Armenians] ‘ethnic cleansing’ — here’s why.
“Azerbaijan has cut off the disputed region’s [Nagorno-Karabakh] link to the outside world, leaving its Armenian majority facing desperate shortages of food, fuel and medical supplies as winter draws in.”
“The multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk [Iraq] has seen a tumultuous night of protests and violent clashes that have left at least four Kurds dead and scores injured.
“The unrest erupted when Kurdish demonstrators took to the streets on Saturday to denounce the closure of the Kirkuk-Erbil road by Arab and Turkmen factions.”
“Syrian protesters call for Assad’s removal as economic crisis spirals.
“Hundreds of protesters gathered in southern Syria this weekend calling for President Bashar al-Assad’s removal, as demonstrations that erupted over the country’s economic crisis entered their third week… Demonstrators have burnt photographs of Assad and attacked the ruling party’s local office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/99674f10-4d90-447d-9eeb-e85e910f1cbf
“Clashes in Northeast Syria between army, pro-Turkey fighters kill more than 20.
“The violence comes amid days of separate clashes in Kurdish-held parts of neighbouring Deir Ezzor province after US-backed, Kurdish-led fighters detained the head of a local military body there.”
“Turkish Inflation Is Staying on Uplift That’s Taking It Past 55%.
“Turkish inflation probably accelerated to the fastest since January, underscoring the central bank’s challenge as it raises interest rates to try to end a cost-of-living crisis. With food and energy costs on the rise, the pace of annual price gains probably soared to near 56% last month…”
“Cyprus police have arrested 20 people after a march against migrants and refugees on the island’s second-largest city, Limassol, turned violent with mobs vandalising property.
“Five people were injured during the unrest on Friday evening after about 500 people took to the streets for the march, the police said.”
“More than 140 people have been wounded in clashes between Eritrean asylum seekers and Israeli police in Tel Aviv.
“The violence broke out near the Eritrean embassy when protesters were stopped from reaching the building ahead of a cultural event set to take place there.”
“Climate change fuels fresh community clashes in Somalia.
“Central Somali state of Galmudug is at the epicentre of climate-induced upheaval in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity threatens herders and villages. The pastoral community of central Somalia’s Galmudug state is getting pulled ever deeper into a complex web of conflict as a result of climate change.”
https://www.theafricareport.com/318916/climate-change-fuels-fresh-community-clashes-in-somalia/
“Dozens of civilians killed in past two days in Sudan’s Khartoum…
“The Sudanese Armed Forces control the skies and have carried out regular air strikes while RSF fighters dominate the streets of the capital. Western countries have accused the paramilitaries and allied militias of killings based on ethnicity in the western Darfur region, and the International Criminal Court has opened a new probe into alleged war crimes.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230903-air-strike-in-khartoum-kills-20-civilians-activists
“Dozens killed in new clashes in northern Chad…
“At least 35 people, including six soldiers, were killed today in northwestern Chad in a new clash between the regular Army and the rebel group Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR), according to military sources the Army, whose figures were denied by the insurgents.”
“Huge protests in Niger call for French forces to leave after coup.
“Tens of thousands of protesters gathered outside a French military base in Niger’s capital Niamey on Saturday demanding that its troops leave in the wake of a military coup that has widespread popular support but which Paris refuses to recognise.”
“Coups and instability in the Sahel threaten the West too…
“There is now a chain of military-run countries stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea… It is likely to mean higher flows of migrants and the threat of more terrorism…”
“Lagos traffic jams disappear. But this isn’t good news for Nigeria.
“Lagos feels different, the boisterous – often chaotic – energy that drives Nigeria’s commercial centre has been subdued by the removal of a fuel subsidy that had kept the price of petrol low for decades in Africa’s largest economy.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66652771
“South Africa’s National Treasury said it will implement a number of cost-cutting measures to rein in government spending, including a hiring freeze, after a shortfall in revenue collection.
“The treasury, in response to an ailing economy, said it had outlined the measures in a letter addressed to national departments, provinces and public entities.”
“India burns more coal for power as dry weather sparks blackout fears.
“India has stepped up the use of coal to generate electricity in a bid to stop outages caused by lower hydroelectricity output, as an increase in renewables is struggling to keep pace with record power demand. It is unusual for India’s electricity use to spike in August…”
“Pakistani traders strike countrywide against high inflation and utility bills.
“Pakistani traders have staged strikes across the country against the soaring cost of living, including higher fuel and utility bills and record depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.”
“Child labour at ‘critical moment’ as more pushed into work: ILO…
“Gilbert Houngbo, director-general of the International Labour Organization (ILO), said there had been a “regression” in regions around the world amid global economic problems. Some of the worst forms of work involved sexual exploitation. He said urgent action was needed.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-66582913
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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The revival of calls for nuclear power in the EU is startling. Sweden announced they wanted to build as many as 10 more power plants (but revoked that again) Poland now wants to build one Westinghouse for something like 3,500 MW and then wants to build another 6 or so for 6 to 9 gig MW. France ditto, the Netherlands is even coming up with plans now that ‘green energy supply’ is faltering. Globally, you see the same exponential call for nuclear farm enlargement. All in all, the extractable reserves will soon be exhausted, long before all power plants reach the end of their runway….
Fortunately, then, we have the Chinese laboratory experiment to filter uranium from sea water by binding it to a protein…. must be possible 🙂
The price is currently hovering around $58 per unit (pound) and has never been higher than $70
The Chinese professors revealed that they expect that the filtration could be done industrially perhaps at a price of around $300 per pound….
Matter of paying so….. but it can be done they say
The nuclear revival is now typically a case of ‘wishful thinking’ where it is all about the ‘talk’ without any realistic cost-benefit analysis.
Scholz is right on that score…. let’s see how ‘everyone’ will finance all that in the EU with their liberalised electricity market.
With greetings to Hinkleypoint
…….As of May 2022, the project is two years late and the expected cost is £25–26 billion, 50% more than the original budget from 2016. It has a projected lifetime of 60 years. In February 2023, EDF announced that costs would rise to £32.7bn and operation would be delayed by a further 15 months to September 2028……
One of the most prodigious outputs of nuclear reactors is water vapor, a powerful GHG, although it’s always ignored. The scale of the nuclear power plant buildout needed would increase this GHG at the same time as it’s pouring the fossil fuel effluents that would be created in their construction into the atmosphere. One should also note that these reactors are needed to provide power for future projections of electrical usage without accounting for the mammoth increase that would be needed to charge & recharge the fleet of EV’s Europeans will be driving in their envisioned Energy Transition. So , yet again, the proposed so-called “solution” only exacerbates the problem ( but makes boatloads of risk-free profits for their Corporate sponsors … that’s just how Disaster Capitalism works).
Yes it is. The problms with ‘scaling up’ are so great in all sorts of areas that we should be happy that it is already ‘unaffordable’.
As a French resident, I foresee big problems in many areas 🙂 For once, we as humans have not understood much about ‘time’ and our future being and certainly not about the exponential factor.
If only we should have paid better attention in school 🙂