“Why India’s soaring food inflation is a global problem… Erratic climate conditions – including the driest August in more than a century – have sent food prices spiralling above 11% in India, which is a major player in global agri-trade…
“So, does India, with its aggressive defence of domestic prices, run the risk of exporting food inflation to the world? The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes it does, particularly with rice, sugar and onions.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-66655642
“Amid alarming food inflation: El Nino to suppress wheat, rice, palm oil harvest in Asia.
” An unusually dry August has taken a toll on cereal and oilseed crops in Asia as El Nino intensified, and forecasts for lower rainfall in September are further threatening to disrupt supplies, says Reuters in a report.”
“Extreme heat, drought take toll on US crops.
“Soaring temperatures, stifling humidity and the pungent smell of rotting vegetation sounds more like an excursion through a rainforest jungle, but these were the conditions experienced by some of the approximately 100 scouts that participated in the recent Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour.”
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/18968-extreme-heat-drought-take-toll-on-us-crops
“Norway to spend $6 million a year stock-piling grain, citing pandemic, war and climate change.
“Starting next year, Norway will start storing 15,000 tons of grain and do so yearly until 2028 or 2029, according to Norway’s minister for agriculture and food, Geir Pollestad, who said the aim is to always have a three-month worth of consumption in storage.”
“Ørsted, the owner of the UK’s biggest offshore wind farms has lost a fifth of its value after admitting that the costs of building major projects in the US was spiralling…
“Supply chain delays, a higher cost of borrowing due to rising interest rates and trouble obtaining tax credits have left it shouldering much higher costs on planned offshore wind farms in New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island.”
“Interest rates put half of UK firms in debt difficulties.
“The share of non-financial UK firms facing problems servicing their debts will rise to 50% due to rising interest rates – up from 45% in 2022. The UK’s interest rate currently stands at 5.25%, up from the record low of 0.1% in November 2021, with the Bank expecting this to rise further to 6.1%.”
https://www.theactuary.com/2023/08/30/interest-rates-put-half-uk-firms-debt-difficulties
“Britain’s broad money supply has stopped growing for the first time in at least 13 years, a reading that will deepen concerns among monetarists urging the Bank of England to show restraint in its battle against inflation.
“Economists who predicted the surge in inflation during the pandemic after seeing money-supply growth rocket are now worried that the UK is in danger of recession and deflation.”
“The [UK] Government’s list of schools that are potentially falling apart after being built with poor quality concrete is growing all the time… after an order to shutter over 100 school buildings days before term left parents scrambling to make last-minute arrangements.
“Families have vented their fury after the Department for Education told 104 schools to close buildings made using reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete.”
“Spanish olive oil reaches new record-high surpassing USD8,880…
““The drought plus the high temperatures that we saw when the olive trees were in flower in almost all olive-growing areas in the country … means we’re headed to another bad harvest, and that is going to cause even more tension in the markets,” Cristobal Cano, the leader of the farmers’ union APA, informed Spanish daily Europa Press.”
https://menafn.com/1106985436/Spanish-olive-oil-reaches-new-record-high-surpassing-USD8880
“”All outdoor crops in Mallorca have been lost” [due to the recent storm].
“Cooperatives Agro-alimentàries Illes Balears is carrying out a first assessment of the damage that the heavy rains and winds of storm Betty caused to its members’ crops… All outdoor cultivation in Mallorca has been lost.”
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9554960/all-outdoor-crops-in-mallorca-have-been-lost/
“Russian oil fuels new political crisis in Bulgaria.
“Bulgarian political stability is threatened by a fuel market crisis as the ruling coalition wants to cut dependence on Russian oil, which would mean clashing with Russian private company Lukoil, which owns the Burgas refinery and has a monopoly on the wholesale market.”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/russian-oil-fuels-new-political-crisis-in-bulgaria/
“Ukraine cries foul as fuels refined from Russian oil pour into the EU.
“Diesel, kerosene and other fuels refined from Russian crude are flooding into Europe… countries like India are buying up cheap Russian crude and then refining it — which earns local companies the refining margin — before selling it to other countries.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-fuel-oil-eu-sanction/
“Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, has faced shortages of fuel crucial for gathering the harvest in some parts of its southern breadbasket…
“Traders said that the fuel market has been hit by a combination of different factors including maintenance at oil refineries, infrastructure bottlenecks on railways and the weaker rouble which incentivises fuel exports.”
“Japan’s budget demands will hit a record for the next fiscal year, exceeding 112 trillion yen ($767 billion), sources told Reuters, as rising interest rates add to debt-servicing costs and military and social security spending rises.
“The government is saddled with the industrial world’s heaviest debt at more than twice the size of its economy, adding to the urgency for Tokyo to shift from crisis-mode fiscal stimulus.”
“Manufacturing activity in Asia’s major export powerhouses continued to slump in August as weak demand persisted in the region’s key trade markets…
“Trade bellwethers Taiwan’s Purchasing Managers Index came in at 44.3 last month from 44.1 in July, while South Korea’s gauge slumped to 48.9 from 49.4 during the same period.”
“China’s factory activity shrinks for 5th month, maintains pressure for policy support.
“China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in August, an official survey showed on Thursday, maintaining pressure on officials to provide support to shore up economic growth amid soft demand both at home and abroad.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-factory-activity-shrinks-fifth-month-august-2023-08-31/
“Embattled Chinese developer Country Garden reported a 48.9bn yuan ($6.7bn) loss for the first half of the year in a stock exchange filing on Wednesday, adding to worries of a potentially catastrophic default.
“Its tenuous state has sparked fears of a collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for the Chinese financial system two years after the fall of Evergrande.”
“Side note on Country Garden earnings: The firm said it had nearly $14 billion in cash at the end of June. That covered 93% of the debt it said was due over the next 12 months. Five weeks later, it failed to pay ~$23 million on bond coupons.”
https://twitter.com/RChoongWilkins/status/1697187673189040375
“Egypt aspired to be a natural gas powerhouse. Now the lights are out…
“Egypt was overzealous in its drive to produce and export natural gas, analysts say, failing to plan for declining fields and to diversify the energy sources that power its grid. In early summer, the electricity began to switch off seemingly at random…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/01/egypt-power-cuts-gas-blackouts/
“Fuel Scarcity Hits Lagos and Ogun [Nigeria]: Residents Face Painful Queues.
“Lagos and Ogun states, two bustling regions in South-West Nigeria, are grappling with a renewed bout of fuel scarcity, causing distress among residents who must endure long and excruciating queues at filling stations.”
“Burkina Faso Crisis Continues to Spiral.
“Following two military coups d’état in 2022, militant Islamist groups in Burkina Faso have moved to encircle Ouagadougou leaving a trail of unprecedented violence in their wake… Militant Islamist groups threaten an increasing number of communities… shifting the epicenter of violence in the Sahel.
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/burkina-faso-crisis-continues-to-spiral/
“Nigeria president suggests nine-month transition for Niger junta.
“Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Thursday floated the idea of a transition back to democracy in neighbouring Niger similar to the nine-month period his country underwent in the late 1990s.”
“Nearly 50 killed in DR Congo crackdown on anti-UN protest.
“On Wednesday, Congolese soldiers stopped a religious sect from holding a demonstration against United Nations peacekeepers in the city of Goma… an internal army document consulted by AFP on Thursday, and verified by security officials, gave a toll of 48 people killed in the incident — in addition to the slain policeman — and 75 people wounded.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230831-48-killed-in-east-dr-congo-anti-un-rally-crackdown
“Army officers who seized power in a coup in Gabon on Wednesday have named Gen Brice Oligui Nguema as the country’s transitional leader…
“The deposed President, Ali Bongo, has appeared in a video at his home, calling on his “friends all over the world” to “make noise” on his behalf. The former French colony is one of Africa’s major oil producers.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66666585
“Sudan refugees stranded without healthcare in Chad.
“Hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Sudan’s war have crossed into Chad to find themselves in overcrowded camps, sweltering in plastic huts and awaiting healthcare that never comes… The camps that house them are running low on everything — medical personnel, sanitary facilities and medicine — in scattered makeshift clinics.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230901-sudan-refugees-stranded-without-healthcare-in-chad
“Ethiopia’s Amhara crisis: 183 killed in unrest amid concerns about another civil war.
“Ethiopia’s restive Amhara region has seen at least 183 people killed since July in clashes, as Amhara fighters resist efforts by the federal government to disband them, the United Nations said Tuesday (29 August) as it appealed for the cessation of the killings, violence and rights abuses.”
“House prices suffer steepest fall since global financial crisis.
“House prices around the globe are falling at their fastest rate since the global financial crisis, data published today (August 31) by the Bank for International Settlements shows… Prices are falling faster in advanced economies…”
“The Cost of Living Crisis Has Come for the Polycules… “It’s so hard to be polyamorous when you’re poor.”
“Obviously, money can have a huge impact on relationships, sexologist and polyamory expert Chantal Gautier tells VICE. “Spending, budgeting, saving disagreements, conflicts about money priorities – financial instability takes a toll on relationships,” she says. With polyamory, this is exponentially more difficult.”
https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjzam/cost-of-living-crisis-polyamory-polycules-downsizing
“Decarbonising the world economy with synthetic biology…
“Synthetic biology involves the management of microbes to transform sugars or waste into useful products. Among other things, it could offer commercially viable and scalable technology for capturing emissions and transforming them into high-value products that can be sold.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
““Nigeria president suggests nine-month transition for Niger junta.”
This story might have an interesting back story since Nigeria was just admitted to BRICS. ECOWAS may not be so firmly in the pocket of the west, and so the war may never happen. Of course, the sanctions will bolster the coup chances for the Islamists.
I hope Zip has some insight to share.
Lou, I don’t believe that Nigeria was one of the nations to join BRICS last week.
https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/following-the-brics-road-to-multipolarity/
“Synthetic biology involves the management of microbes to transform sugars or waste into useful products. ”
What could possibly go wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq0our4mceQ
Something about the EU and Ecowas and especially France’s position,
West Africa is irreversibly moving towards ‘neo-sovereign’ military regimes, which are for sale to whoever wants to pay !
There is ‘coincidentally’ a summit meeting in Toledo of EU foreign ministers led by Josep Borell the senior eu commissioner for foreign affairs and security policy.
1. That, of course, included Niger and Gabon, two Sahel countries with putches within a month, where France’s position is very precarious. They have many interests in both countries as an old colonial power, especially in mining and infrastructure. Although those interests in Niger with the now almost depleted uranium mining should not be exaggerated.
But yes there are many ‘old resentments’ against France that are/were still militarily active in the Sahel countries. Niger still has 1,500 troops stationed there with air support. In the recent past, France sometimes intervened quickly in ‘coup attempts’ in West Africa. This often went fairly smoothly because most high-ranking military had started their militaier careers at French training institutes and enjoyed many advantages in those countries where, by the way, the French currency (CFA) is still in force. It gives the French central bank a lot of influence on, for example, lending for infrastructure ed.
2. Across the board, that influence is now waning for all sorts of reasons and despite the charm offensive a few years ago by Macron who was loudly hailed as the new ‘saviour’ by the youth and students. It was all ‘hot air’ . ‘Democracy’ as a model has accelerated into disrepute, with urban youth wanting a populist, ‘neo-sovereign’ military regime, while some of the rural youth, deprived of hope and future, opt for a jihadist system.
The anti-jihadist struggle has also already failed and after the failure of Operation Barkhane, a large anti-Jihadist front with a lot of military support from numerous EU countries (Netherlands/Denmark), the EU troops led by France disappeared and the entire Operation Barkhane was called off by France last year. French troops were completely withdrawn in a number of countries like Mali and Burkina Fasso after also already military changes of power and that was accompanied by a lot of anti-French sentiments. That has. created a power vacuum that cannot be easily filled, despite all those rumours about Wagner troops fitting well into the ‘neo-sovereign’ model.
3. Only one fear applies in the EU. The fear of destabilisation in the region in the West with chaos like in Sudan, followed by an endless stream of refugees heading for Europe, among others, through the known channels. That is the last thing that should happen.
The Eu therefore sees nothing in involvement a military intervention in Niger, with the exception of France. After the coup in Niger, France is diplomatically isolated within the EU, despite the fact that the putschists have announced their intention to expel the French ambassador’ effectively’. Macron, brash as he is, with a neoconservative harking back to France’s old grandeur, has been ‘vehement’ about this, refusing any negotiations with the coup plotters.
4. The creation of a European sanctions regime against the junta in Niamey was approved in Toledo yesterday (31 August), but the prospect of military intervention, mooted for a time by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has so far been completely ruled out. France, which supports this option if necessary, seems isolated.
5. The coup in Gabon on 30 August was also mentioned and condemned, but “it has nothing to do with the situation in Niger”. In Niger, a democratically elected president was deposed, while in Gabon, the president was re-elected after elections whose democratic nature raised many doubts. (Was just a rogue president:) )
6. In general, there has been much less talk about the fate of Gabonese President Ali Bongo than of his Nigerian counterpart Mohamed Bazoum, who has been under house arrest since 26 July. The coup in Niger heralds a new era of instability in the Sahel region”
And the foreign ministers were very clear: priority should be given to diplomatic channels to restore constitutional order. They also reaffirmed their desire for an African solution to an African situation.
7. Also in Toledo were the chairman of the Ecowas Commission, Omar Alieu Touray, and the foreign minister of the overthrown government in Niger, Hassoumi Massoudou. Both stressed that “the only framework to manage this crisis is that of Ecowas”. This is convenient because under no circumstances does Europe want to give the impression of imposing its ‘solution’ to Africa from outside
8. Some think like the US that this coup in Niger will bleed to death on its own under the pressure of economic sanctions. However, that seems an illusion as the examples in Mali and Burkina Faso have shown. The return to, let’s call it ‘democracy’ on the African model is extremely complicated. President Bazoum’s return to power is a lost cause. Even if he were to return, he would be labelled ‘pro-France’. Democratic principles are good, but they should have been observed with moderation and discretion. Supporting a military intervention by ECOWAS in Niger is a mistake.
ECOWAS does not have the resources to fulfil its ambitions in this area; it is a scarecrow or, if you like, a paper tiger. By supporting the option of a military intervention, France places itself in the position of a hostile state, all the more so as France would have to send logistical resources in that case. Emmanuel Macron’s speech no doubt thrilled the jihadists and the coup leaders. They all want France to come across as the villain who wants to attack Niger.
9. The putschists know that France is very unpopular in Niger and more broadly in the Sahel. With its colonial past, the CFA franc, its military bases and regular orders, France is seen by young people in Niger as a neo-colonial power. French diplomacy has not adapted to the changes in these societies. In this context, the military junta – which initially had nothing against France changed its position like a leaf on a tree.
The more France attacks Niger, the more the putschists are satisfied. Emmanuel Macron’s ‘year’ speech this week in front of French ambassadors no doubt delighted both jihadists and the putschists. They all want France to come across as the bad guy who wants to attack Niger. Macron just does not understand but perhaps under pressure from the strong revisionism in France that his remarks have led the population to support the putschists even more.
11. By the way, France has no particular interests in Niger apart from Orano, which extracts uranium but is not an essential supplier to France. The EU interest is not in Niger itself, but in the Sahel as a whole. The EU needs to prevent the region from becoming destabilised and a hotbed of international terrorism and new migration flows. These will increase as Sahelians migrate to the coastal states, which will themselves become destabilised. We are entering a scenario of general deterioration that will amplify migration flows.
In short, I am very curious to see how France will extricate itself from this ‘hornet’s nest’. I don’t expect much from it and even less from ECOWAS. Matter of quietly disappearing through the back door seems the wisest thing to do. 🙂
“The more France attacks Niger, the more the putschists are satisfied. Emmanuel Macron’s ‘year’ speech this week in front of French ambassadors no doubt delighted both jihadists and the putschists.”
Yes, this I was able to see from the various articles I’ve read on the subject. Macron seems completely out of touch (even about France 🙂 ).
With the denial by the Algerians for France to use its airspace for a quick and easy air raid, Macron may be completely neutered. Of course, the US has lots of drones in Niger, but I don’t think it would work to fly out of the US base in Niger to bomb Niger’s new military leaders … but Blinken would love to have an excuse to hit the Wagners scattered around the region … and so, I get in a muddle … too complex.
“The anti-jihadist struggle has also already failed and after the failure of Operation Barkhane, a large anti-Jihadist front with a lot of military support from numerous EU countries (Netherlands/Denmark), the EU troops led by France disappeared …”
Right. Another entire set of complications … . (Islam may not be the most evil religion, but it is certainly in the top three.)
Focusing on the geopolitics, I gloss over the climate change problems (eg the likely permanent drought in the horn of Africa), resource issues, agricultural issues, etc.
At any rate, you have provided a ray of hope that there may be no larger war in Niger given the poverty in the ECOWAS countries, and (i think) the fact that Nigeria has made it clear, by jumping into BRICS, that it doesn’t want to be controlled by the west. It might be that, more than any other result of the changes in Africa, the effect on France as a major (formerly major??) power is really the important take-away.
Thanks for taking the time to provide such a well thought out and detailed response.
Lou, again, I don’t think that Nigeria has joined BRICS, and opinion in the press seems divided on whether or not they want to or have even applied. In the article you link to above, the six nations that joined BRICS last week are listed: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Oh, crap. How did I get Nigeria and Ethiopia confused? That just chaps my hide. Perhaps I should stick with fantasy novels.
And just when I thought I almost had a handle on what is happening in Africa.
Thanks for your comments,
The latest reaction from those in power just now support my analysis. France has done it and is the scapegoat…. that suits everyone there for now.
Regarding BRICS and its perspective in a geopolitical context, I recommend you read this article/interview on Oilprice.com. Nigeria has not signed up as a member…. Egypt did. Whether that is of much use to you is the question 😉
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Analyst-BRICS-Currency-Unlikely-To-Undermine-Dollar-Dominance.html
“The latest reaction from those in power just now support my analysis. France has done it and is the scapegoat…. that suits everyone there for now.”
Right. Whatever happens to the various African countries (and that probably won’t be good), France is going to be a big looser for the foreseeable future.
“Regarding BRICS and its perspective in a geopolitical context, I recommend you read this article/interview on Oilprice.com.”
I think, if you will forgive the characterization, is that a BRICS currency is a straw-man argument. Clearly the BRICS countries are too dissimilar to create a common currency. Russian/Chinese cheerleaders argue that it is possible however to create a “clearinghouse” system – perhaps with an electronic currency visible only to the various central banks.
For example here:
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/04/15/brics-bank-dollar-local-currencies-dilma/
The above isn’t the one I was looking for although it does more or less cover the issue. This is more to the point, also an interview (probably the top 1/3 is the only part worth your time):
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/danny-haiphong-pepe-escobar-and-michael-hudson-join-on-brics-plus-six-ukraine-and-the-multipolar-world-economy.html
As Dr. Hudson continues to repeat, and I think it is an excellent argument — Yes, cutting the dollar out of trade between countries is difficult, but the US is making it even more difficult to continue to use the dollar. Russia has been selling crude to India and accepting Rupees in payment for quite a while now, and they have a pile of Rupees that are difficult to get rid of. Still, India is loving it because Europe is snapping up the refined petroleum at high prices, and Russia also is profiting but unfortunately in Rupees that are “hard” to move.
thanks for the links
I must tell you that my understanding of these kinds of globally functioning exchange rate systems and defaulting loans in all kinds of currencies is very limited. Roussef’s story struck me as wishful thinking. Her Brazilian track record is not what you say…. yes!!! this is going to be it 🙂
As for Niger in the link an extensive discussion in which interesting things are said ‘here and there’….. but I don’t know how good your French is 🙂
tps://video.lefigaro.fr/figaro/video/la-france-doit-elle-quitter-le-niger-suivez-le-club-le-figaro-international/