“Staggeringly high government debt levels around the globe may stick — a huge shift from previous years that could come despite the warnings of economic damage this dynamic may cause…
“”Debt reduction, while desirable in principle, is unlikely in practice,” International Monetary Fund economist Serkan Arslanalp and University of California, Berkeley, professor Barry Eichengreen write in a new paper.
“Ballooning government debt worldwide won’t decline significantly in the coming years as in decades past, they argue. “Countries are going to have to live with this new reality as a semipermanent state.””
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/29/economy-global-debt
“Central banks will push western economies into recession in order to be sure of winning the battle against inflation, one of [UK Chancellor] Jeremy Hunt’s advisers has warned.
“Rejecting the idea of a “soft landing”, Karen Ward, a member of the chancellor’s economic advisory council, said there would need to be signs of weakness before policymakers felt able to ease their tough approach.”
“Dallas Fed August manufacturing index -17.2 vs -20.0 prior.
“High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before. In addition to reshoring heavy activity, supply-chain issues, lack of qualified labor and interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures.”
https://www.forexlive.com/news/dallas-fed-august-manufacturing-index-172-vs-200-prior-20230828/
“Chevron Evacuates Gulf Of Mexico Oil Platforms As Hurricane Idalia Approaches…
“The U.S. supermajor said on Tuesday that it had evacuated non-essential personnel from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms, and all staff had been removed from its Genesis platform in the Gulf of Mexico.”
“With fire risk high, Northern California braces for power shutoffs amid smoky skies.
“Officials are warning that thousands across Northern California could lose power Wednesday in planned outages as the region faces a critical fire threat — while already dealing with poor air quality amid smoky skies and growing devastation from multiple ongoing wildfires.”
“Electric utilities face billions in wildfire liability with aging power lines risking another catastrophe.
“Electric companies in the western U.S. are facing mounting lawsuits alleging that their failure to prepare for extreme weather has resulted in repeated, catastrophic wildfires that have taken scores of lives and caused billions of dollars in damages.”
“Climate Change is Quickly Making Home Insurance a Luxury Item.
“As climate change accelerates, home insurance doesn’t just cost more. It’s getting harder to find at all. The national average rate for home insurance has risen 20% from last year to $1,428 annually, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. And even those skyrocketing fees don’t always guarantee a full reimbursement…”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/28/climate-change-is-quickly-making-home-insurance-a/
“Climate crisis to create ‘acute’ challenges for Australia’s economy, incoming RBA governor says.
“Global heating will present the Reserve Bank with “acute” challenges, including heightened uncertainty around how the climate will change and the resulting impacts on the economy and financial system, the incoming governor, Michele Bullock, has said.”
“New Zealand is at risk of falling into a deeper recession, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“In its annual report card, the IMF said the Government needs to rein in spending or else the country faces prolonged high inflation lasting until 2025.”
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/29/nz-at-risk-of-falling-into-deeper-recession/
“Canada Has Seen Subprime Become The Fastest Growing Borrower Segment…
“Transunion Canada data reveals an explosion of subprime borrowers in Q2 2023. Higher living costs and rising rates have combined to produce higher risk borrowers. At the same time, lenders are embracing it—with new loans to risky borrowers significantly outpacing the growth rate of high quality originations.”
“HSBC has become the latest [UK] mortgage lender to begin offering borrowers up to a 40-year mortgage term.
“The bank says its longest-ever mortgage term was launched with the intention of helping more people onto the property ladder.”
“Hundreds more flights were cancelled on Tuesday as the fallout from Monday’s UK air traffic control failure continued to disrupt travel, with the government telling airlines to take every step to help stranded passengers.
“Many holidaymakers remain unable to return home for several days, and Downing Street said airlines should fulfil their responsibilities to passengers whose flights have been scrapped or delayed.”
“Finland will dip into recession in the coming year, according to OP group economists.
“Their forecast suggests that Finland’s GDP will shrink by 0.3 percent this year, and will not grow at all in 2024. The group’s last prediction had been for growth of 0.3 percent this year.”
“Sweden’s GDP Contraction Driven by Sputtering Export Engine…
“Calendar-adjusted gross domestic product shrank by 0.8% in the three months through June, compared with the first quarter, according to figures published by Statistics Sweden on Tuesday. The drop is explained by lower goods exports and smaller inventories, authorities said.”
“Hungary Cuts Key Interest Rate to 14% as Record Recession Bites…
“The central bank decreased its overnight interest rate to 14% on Tuesday, matching all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The move brought the instrument, which was made the key rate in October to stem a plunge in the forint, one step away from the benchmark rate..”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/hungary-cuts-key-interest-rate-to-14-as-record-recession-bites-1.1964656
“As Rates Near Their Peak, the Pain Begins for Europe’s Borrowers.
“Interest rates may be peaking in Europe, but for the consumers, companies and governments that borrowed trillions of euros during the era of ultra-low borrowing costs, there’s still plenty of pain in store… it’s a particular shock in Europe, where interest rates were below zero for eight years.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rates-near-peak-pain-begins-040007285.html
“Eurozone bank lending continues to weaken as money growth turns negative.
“Higher interest rates and a stagnant economy keep bank lending on a weakening trend. Annual growth in broad money growth is now negative. This adds to expectations of a weak eurozone economy in the quarters ahead.”
“The EU is set to import record volumes of liquefied natural gas from Russia this year, despite aiming for the bloc to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
“In the first seven months of this year, Belgium and Spain were the second and third-biggest buyers of Russian LNG behind China…”
https://www.ft.com/content/1e70ff72-52d8-46b6-a8f4-fcc86fb88a6d
“High Energy Bills Force German Industry to Eye Production Abroad…
“Over half of surveyed companies say the energy transition is having negative or very negative effects on their competitiveness, according to a report by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Among manufacturers, almost a third are considering or already executing a production shift abroad — twice as much as during last year’s energy crisis.”
“Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal.
“German energy giant RWE has begun dismantling a wind farm to make way for a further expansion of an open-pit lignite coal mine in the western region of North Rhine Westphalia. One wind turbine has already been dismantled, with a further seven scheduled for removal to excavate an additional 15m to 20m tonnes of so-called ‘brown’ coal…”
https://euobserver.com/green-economy/157364
“Locals of Austrian village of Hallstatt protest against mass tourism.
“The village, on the western shore of Lake Hallstatt in Austria’s mountainous Salzkammergut region, was rumoured to be the inspiration for Arendelle in Disney’s Frozen. Up to 10,000 tourists flock there every day – and locals have had enough.”
“Italy Determined to Combat Mass Tourism by Introducing Fees for Unruly Visitors.
“The popular country for tourism is expected to welcome a record number of tourists in 2023, and the authorities are determined to establish an environment that visitors but also residents can enjoy.”
“The Yen’s exchange rate against the dollar is back at levels that have prompted fx intervention in the past.
“The recent depreciation also puts additional pressure on the Bank of Japan to accelerate what has been a very gradual exit from its YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy regime.”
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1696248965434388972
“Japan gasoline price hits record 185.60 yen per liter.
“The average retail gasoline price in Japan has climbed for the 15th straight week to its highest-ever level, industry ministry data showed Wednesday, as subsidies given to oil wholesalers taper off toward the end of September.”
“China is approving new coal power projects at the equivalent of two plants every week, a rate energy watchdogs say is unsustainable if the country hopes to achieve its energy targets…
“But after regional power crunches in 2022, China started a domestic spree of approving new projects and restarting suspended ones. In 2022 the government approved a record-breaking 106 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/29/china-coal-plants-climate-goals-carbon
“Evergrande shares plunge further amid China economy fears.
“Shares in Evergrande fell a further 14% on Tuesday after more than $2bn was wiped off the Chinese property developer’s market value when it resumed trading for the first time in almost 18 months on Monday. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm with liabilities of $328bn (£260bn), has lost more than 99% of its share market value over the past three years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/29/evergrande-shares-china-economy-fears
“China Distress Mounts as Country Garden Tries to Dodge Default.
“China is flashing new signs of financial stress almost on a daily basis, with a property giant making fresh efforts to avoid default and a state-run bad debt manager suffering a bond slump on worries about its own health.”
“Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens.
“Some Chinese state-owned banks will soon lower interest rates on existing mortgages, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to revive the debt crisis-hit property sector and bolster a sputtering economy.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/chinas-agbank-posts-348-rise-first-half-profit-2023-08-29/
“Drought dents Sri Lanka’s economic hopes, farmers’ livelihood…
“The island’s economy was crushed last year by its worst financial crisis in over seven decades… But even before the country’s agriculture sector could recover from sky-rocketing prices of inputs from fertiliser to power, the rains failed.”
“Pakistan: Political unrest compounds economic misery.
“Pakistan’s caretaker government needs to drum up foreign investment to help stabilize the economy, but ongoing political uncertainty is keeping many investors away.”
https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-political-unrest-compounds-economic-misery/video-66664990
“Syrian protests enter second week with calls for Assad to go…
“A spate of protests and strikes across government-held areas in southern Syria have continued into their second week, with demonstrators increasingly unafraid to call for the removal of the president, Bashar al-Assad.”
“Leaked ‘secret’ meeting between Israel and Libya sparks riots in Tripoli [Libya].
“The White House is reportedly “furious” with the Israeli government after they publicised a meeting between Israeli and Libyan foreign ministers… Libya has traditionally been a strong supporter of Palestinians and has no formal ties with Israel.”
“Argentina’s Milei will need time to scrap peso if he wins.
“Javier Milei, Argentina’s radical presidential front-runner, will need time to carry out his campaign pledges of scrapping the peso currency and cutting taxes on grains should he win the election, advisers told Reuters, adding that he could avoid congressional hurdles by using executive decrees.”
“Colombia: mass protests over gas prices.
“Thousands of protesters on cars and motorbikes took to the streets of Colombia’s main cities on Monday to reject recent hikes in gasoline prices that have drastically increased the price of fuel in the South American country.”
https://kbindependent.org/2023/08/29/colombia-mass-protests-over-gas-prices/
“Turkish ‘Patanas’ Are a Pollution Bomb in Cuba.
“The formidable column of smoke that extends from the bay of Havana to the east is the most visible example of the environmental damage caused by the Turkish patanas, the floating power plants present on the Island since 2019… [they] release dangerous amounts of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide into the island’s atmosphere.”
https://havanatimes.org/features/turkish-patanas-are-a-pollution-bomb-in-cuba/
“The race to mine the moon: How India, Russia, Europe, the US and China are battling it out to mine precious water, helium and metals beneath the lunar surface – estimated to be worth QUADRILLIONS…
“Other resources include basalt, iron, quartz and silicon, which could all be used for windows, stoneware and solar panels on Earth, while precious metals for electronics include platinum, palladium and rhodium.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Hello Pan
You have made me absolutely happy with your article on future mining on the moon. Truly genius, and not coincidentally, for the first time in ages, an Indian-made ‘cart’ is somewhere sniffing around there.
Last week, another Russian rocket crashed but that should not spoil the fun. In 2025, ‘we’ go to the moon again….. 🙂
Our imagination and penchant for fairy tales really knows no bounds in these times when we have the idea that we are precisely out of myths. After all, we are rational beings capable of solving any problem.
We truly believe in science and technology. But unfortunately here at our dreams of mining the moon, that turns into delusion and magic. The funniest thing I found was the calculation of how much it costs to launch 1 cubic metre of water around the earth. That’s a lot of money…. But don’t worry there is water on the moon and more than you think! 🙂 At least we don’t have to transport ‘water’…. that saves a lot.
All myths and fairy tales in a world with complex systems diverse, really on the verge of collapse…. .
Colonising the universe, along with mining in space, will surely be preserved in legends and fairy tales.
And the bards and storytellers of the ‘future will sing and tell them around the campfire while sharpening their stone tools for the next day’s hunt. Our civilisation will be long gone by then.
But then, one day, a ‘burrow farmer’ will eventually find a strange metal shard that has fallen from the sky, and as he wonders what the strange symbols and letters NASA mean, he might wonder: maybe we have been on the moon after all…..?
Zip, I am glad you are tickled.
There is gold dispersed in the earth’s seawater but we do not retrieve it because it would cost more to do so than the gold itself is worth. The costs involved in retrieving water and minerals from the moon would be, well, astronomical.
And space is so inhospitable – the radiation, the changes in gravity… I was reading that, as well as suffering muscle loss and skeletal problems, astronauts risk losing their vision if they spend too long in weightless environments due to changes in intraocular pressure:
“…SANS is currently clinically defined by the development of optic disc edema during prolonged exposure to the weightless (microgravity) environment… Other ocular SANS signs that arise during and after ISS missions include hyperopic shifts, globe flattening, choroidal/retinal folds, and cotton wool spots.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31162175/
Yeah you forgot about all of the space trash up in space since the 50s. I do not want to be around when it comes crashing down to earth from the sky. https://www.snexplores.org/article/space-trash-kill-satellites-space-station-astronauts
It is truly amazing that they list basalt as a resource to be exploited. Basalt! Clearly, the author has no idea what basalt is and couldn’t be bothered to google it. There is a lot of vacuum on the moon, perhaps that is a resource as well.
https://geology.com/rocks/basalt.shtml
I started out laughing about the article as Zip did. As I was writing, my mood went to disgust, and then depression. People are so profoundly stupid.
Thats why I read dragon fantasy novels – so much more plausible. Plus, once a good author has set up how the magic works in her universe, she always sticks to the rules. For example, dragons can usually change to human or elf form from their giant fire breathing dragon form, but they never breathe fire as a human. It just isn’t done!
The He3 concentration is up to 20 ppb! So to get a pound, all one needs to do is push up 500 million pounds into a pile and then process it to separate all that super valuable basalt from the helium. Lets see, one would need a D10 or two, some big loaders and rock trucks, and of course a processing plant and … and … .
Oh, wait. How does one get that Cat to run in a vacuum?
Have you ever noticed in Star Trek/Wars/Gate movies that the dilithium/neutronium mining is always done by hand and with picks, shovels, and baskets? That is because a Caterpillar D10 will not run in a vacuum. How long would it take one guy in a space suit and with a pick and basket to move 500 million pounds of lunar regolith? The famous miner that loaded 16 tons, put the coal into a train car and rolled the car down a train track. Is it cheaper to launch mining rail than it is water? No? So, right, it would take at least 1 million days.
Tainter comes to mind. In “The Collapse of Complex Societies” one of the things that sticks in my mind is that the empire – just before its fall – almost always builds the biggest (and generally the most goofy) monuments that it can.
“…the empire – just before its fall – almost always builds the biggest (and generally the most goofy) monuments that it can.”
Saudi’s Ozymandian Mirror City, Neom springs to mind:
https://www.unilad.com/news/world-news/neom-saudi-arabia-the-line-mohammed-bin-salman-construction-667064-20230809
Since I read ‘Tintin on the moon’ long ago, I knew there was frozen water on the moon 🙂 the two dectives Thompson and Thompson were already slipping on it in their moon suits. What more proof do we want 🙂
Zip, I had forgotten that but yes! I reread that not too,long ago when I bought the boxset of all the TinTin books!
Pintada: “People are so profoundly stupid.”
That’s why the comments section here is absolutely essential to the carefully curated list of today’s collapsology from Pan-O.
We avid readers need the reaction of actually informed and tough-minded others to guide our grips & holds on sanity.
People are not not only “profoundly stupid,” they tend to get extremely violent as the stupidity meter increases.
Yes, that’s the scary part!
Thank you, Martin. Uh, … I think.
No, definitely thanks even though it was kinda stupid of me to say.
Ron White; “You can’t fix stupid.” Well let them die dumb.
I’m sick & tired of all the depressing economic talk,when all that has to be done is print more currency. Everybody knows that and continues to go along with the bullshit. Heaven forbid anyone had to live within their means.
Breaking news! The messenger is contemplating suicide. 😉