“A global recession is looming as rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis eat away at the remaining strength of the post-Covid rebound, economists have warned.
“Britain’s economy is suffering its biggest slump in more than two and a half years amid an “increasingly severe” downturn in manufacturing and people having less money to spend on services, leading economists to warn the nation is at risk of recession…
“At the same time the eurozone economy is in even worse shape, according to the survey, while top economists warned the US also faces recession. Combined with China’s slowdown it means there is a growing risk of a global recession, as the recovery from Covid has petered out.”
“With central banks’ job half done, global inflation talk is shifting…
“…as global central bankers gather in a mountain lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual economic brainstorm, talk is shifting to keeping rates around where they are now – but for longer than perhaps previously estimated – rather than raising them further.”
“BRICS expansion: The Saudi surprise adds momentum to the de-dollarisation debate.
“The big surprise from the BRICS summit in South Africa is that Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the group of major emerging countries. And that’s adding fresh impetus to the de-dollarisation debate, which is a potential challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in global trade.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/brics-expansion-the-saudi-surprise/
“What is a BRICS currency, and could one be adopted?
“…Building a BRICS currency would be a “political project”, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told a radio station in July… “If you want it, you’ll have to get a banking union, you’ll have to get a fiscal union, you’ve got to get macroeconomic convergence,” Kganyago said.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/what-is-brics-currency-could-one-be-adopted-2023-08-23/
“China capitalises on US sanctions in fight to dethrone dollar…
“…with the expansion of US economic sanctions and the explosion of new technologies for international payments, cracks are starting to appear in the dollar’s once-impregnable position… The aim is not to depose the dollar but to chip away at its dominance — and, crucially, to create enough space for China’s economic survival if the US one day targets it with the type of sanctions it has imposed on Russia.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3888bdba-d0d6-49a1-9e78-4d07ce458f42
“US 30-year mortgage rate soars to highest since 2000.
“The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan last week shot to the highest since December 2000, helping drive mortgage applications to a 28-year low, a survey showed on Wednesday… the housing market has stood out as the sector most afflicted by the Fed’s aggressive actions to cool demand and undercut inflation.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-30-year-mortgage-rate-soars-highest-since-2000-2023-08-23/
“Landlords With $1.2 Trillion of Debt Face Rising Default Risks
“About $1.2 trillion of debt on US commercial real estate is “potentially troubled” because it’s highly leveraged and property values are falling, according to Newmark Group Inc… Overleveraged owners are often more motivated to stop payments than sink money into buildings with diminished prospects for returns.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/landlords-1-2-trillion-debt-150000771.html
“US power system gets gasier, but not much cleaner, in 2023.
“U.S. power producers increased output of electricity from natural gas by more than from clean power sources in the opening eight months of 2023, as electricity firms grappled with low wind speeds and heavy demand from power-hungry air conditioners.”
“Vogtle’s troubles bring US nuclear challenge into focus…
“The start up of the reactors has been hailed as a major milestone in U.S. nuclear power construction, but the units arrived more than seven years later than originally planned and at a budget of more than double the preliminary projected cost at over $30 billion.”
“Biden’s crazy electric car plan means grid collapse, probably this decade… The numbers just don’t add up…
“Perhaps even more pressing than the daunting permitting challenges is the fact that the US power sector is currently experiencing a severe shortage of power transformers, integral to any new transmission project… Few of these transformers are made domestically, with most having to be sourced overseas via supply chains often controlled by China.”
“Solar and windfarm investment is drying up – and Australia needs a wake-up call…
“…investment in large-scale solar and windfarms has dried up to next-to-nothing just as it is supposed to be moving into overdrive… The first three months of the year were even worse. It’s the slowest start to a year since the council started recording this data in 2017.”
“Fukushima: China accused of hypocrisy over its own release of wastewater from nuclear plants.
“As China bans all seafood from Japan after the discharge of 1m tonnes of radioactive water from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean, Beijing has been accused of hypocrisy and of using the incident to whip up anti-Japanese sentiment.”
“France heatwave curbs cooling water supply to St Alban nuclear plant.
“A heatwave curbing the availability of cooling water has prompted a production warning from operator EDF for the Saint Alban nuclear power plant on the Rhone river in eastern France for Aug. 26-27. Similar warnings have been issued this summer at plants including those at Bugey and Tricastin, which are also on the Rhone.”
“Waitrose [supermarket, UK] hit by shortage of middle-class vegetables… Unpredictable weather is yet again disrupting Britain’s fragile supply chains.
“Shoppers seeking out globe artichokes for their summer dishes have been met with disappointment in recent weeks after unpredictable weather disrupted supplies.”
“German economy stagnates in Q2 after winter recession.
“The German economy stagnated in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, following a winter recession, data from the statistics office showed on Friday… Year on year, adjusted GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter.”
“Sweden’s Recession Seen Lasting Longer With Households Pressured.
“Sweden’s economy is facing two years of contraction — more than previously thought — as rising costs force consumers to continue paring back spending into next year, according to economists at the country’s second-largest bank by market value.”
“Food and aid pile up at Niger’s border as sanctions bite.
“The Malanville border crossing in northern Benin… is at a standstill… The blockade is meant to pressure the junta to restore President Mohamed Bazoum to office. In the process, it has driven up the price of food inside Niger during the lean season, hampered industry and threatened a shortage of medical supplies, aid agencies, officials and residents said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/food-aid-pile-up-nigers-border-sanctions-bite-2023-08-24/
“Niger junta authorises Burkina Faso, Mali to intervene militarily ‘in the event of aggression’…
“Niger’s new ruler General Abdourahamane Tiani warned in a televised address on Saturday: “If an attack were to be undertaken against us, it will not be the walk in the park some people seem to think.””
“Civilians targeted in war-torn Khartoum as poor and elderly remain trapped…
“A woman who had been helping wounded soldiers was killed along with her three children and six neighbours when her home was shelled by Sudanese army forces earlier this week. More than two-thirds of Khartoum’s hospitals have been closed or destroyed since the conflict broke out in April…”
“Tunisia’s Response to Bread Shortages Bode Ill for Its Economic Stability.
“Tunisia’s struggle to mitigate widespread bread shortages risks eroding its authoritarian president’s popularity, triggering social unrest, and delaying the disbursement of needed funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”
“Turkey shocks with big rate hike to 25% to cool raging inflation…
“Analysts said the move was the clearest step yet toward more mainstream economic policies after years of unorthodoxy under President Tayyip Erdogan, and should help rein in inflation expectations. The lira had touched new all-time lows almost daily in recent weeks…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/economy/turkey-interest-rate-hike-25/index.html
“Lebanon pins hopes on offshore oil exploration amid economic collapse…
“Last Wednesday, a drilling rig reached Lebanon, intending to initiate offshore oil-and-gas exploration later this month, as the French energy group TotalEnergies stated. The commencement of offshore drilling activities in Lebanon comes after a significant agreement facilitated by the United States last year.”
“Protests hit Druze city in Syria for fifth day.
“Hundreds of Syrians in the mainly Druze city of Sweida took to the streets for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, protesting at worsening economic conditions and demanding the departure of Syrian President Bashar al Assad.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/protests-hit-druze-city-syria-fifth-day-2023-08-24/
“Three wounded in Yemen power outage protests.
“Three people in Yemen were wounded during raging protests over chronic power outages in the southern port city of Aden on Tuesday evening, residents and local media said, with the event threatening to shatter months of tranquility in the key city.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2360346/middle-east
“Iran’s economy may be on the brink of a Soviet-style collapse…
“In leaks from IRGC commanders it is clear that the financial largesse that literally oiled the political system is waning, and that junior officers and guardsmen are seeking alternative means of income, including the selling of state secrets.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/24/irans-economy-brink-of-soviet-style-collapse/
“Pakistani Rupee Hits Record Low.
“For the first time in Pakistan’s history, the country’s currency plummeted in value to more than 300 rupees against the dollar, raising fears that everyday items could get more expensive as consumers continue to face back-breaking inflation.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistani-rupee-hits-record-low/7239953.html
“Murder and other violent crimes are on the rise in North Korea amid spreading hunger…
““Judicial authorities are strengthening controls by mobilizing special riot police, inspection teams, and police officers to crack down on residents’ passage at night, but criminal acts are not decreasing,” said a resident of North Hamgyong province…”
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/crime-08232023123738.html
“In Argentina, scattered looting portends ugly election race as inflation bites…
“The looting, from southern Patagonian city Bariloche to wine region Mendoza and around capital Buenos Aires, has seen small groups of people break into stores, stealing food and other items, according to a Reuters witnesses, state TV and officials.”
“Panama eyes new measures as flow of migrants through Darien Gap hits 300,000 so far this year…
“The plan, named “Darien is a jungle, not a road,” will be launched next week, officials said, but they could barely hide their frustration with neighboring Colombia’s inability to stop migrants from coming to the two countries’ roadless border.”
“Carbon credit speculators could lose billions as offsets deemed ‘worthless’…
“Amid growing evidence that huge numbers of carbon credits do nothing to mitigate global heating and can sometimes be linked to alleged human rights concerns, there is a growing pile of carbon credits equivalent to the annual emissions of Japan, the world’s fifth largest polluter, that are unused in the unregulated voluntary market, according to market analysis.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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From the Telegraph link
https://archive.li/XbwUQ
“Unless the direction US federal energy policy shifts soon, Americans appear destined to face an entirely government-manufactured energy crisis in the coming years, probably sooner than anyone currently expects.”
Hilarious, not least because there is no mention of the immense not-government-manufactured energy crisis (peak fossil fuels) that is well underway, and will take down industrial civ unless other elements of our polycrisis do it first.
Looks as if the neocons will be looking at a regime change or two to straighten out the situation …that’s provided those with all the money 💰🤑 may already have a transition in place to profit handsomely from this displacement of the US Dollar dump and run..
We are not naive to think they are concerned at all about the people.
Actually, it will be beneficial for these nations to do away with it.
Historically, any time this occurs we witness some military engagements …
Hopefully, it will be localized as in the Ukraine and Taiwan and doesn’t spin into a all out full blown nuclear exchange….
The Future of Dollar Hegemony
The United States has benefited from the dollar’s dominance of global markets for decades. Washington should be wary of squandering those benefits through political infighting and reckless policymaking.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/future-dollar-hegemony
I am dashing out, so this thought is half-baked, but what particularly struck me about the new expanded BRICS alliance is that it controls 80% of world oil production. When consumer nations in the aggregate cannot afford to pay the price producers need for their oil and financial sleight of hand can no longer paper over that disconnect, growing hostility between the two is only to be expected.
Full blown poly crisis is going to blow up in our faces by the end of this decade.
Pan, you see this?
https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-poised-invite-new-members-join-bloc-sources-2023-08-24/
Stumbled over it on TwitX, causing a kerfuffle amongst some, as being a “scary” development.
Third story down, Rain! Saudi the most interesting addition…