“US Treasury yields hit 16-year high on fears over interest rate outlook.
“The sell-off in US government debt continued to hit the world’s largest bond market on Monday, with yields on benchmark Treasuries hitting new 16-year highs as investors come to grips with an economy that refuses to slow…
“Investors are increasingly looking towards a high-profile gathering of the world’s central bank chiefs in Wyoming later this week, where policymakers may signal interest rates must stay higher for an extended period to keep inflation moving lower.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1ed06fa6-8e4a-4dc8-876b-9e0c4b12cc48
“S&P downgrades multiple US banks citing ‘tough’ operating conditions.
“S&P Global on Monday cut credit ratings and revised its outlook for multiple U.S. banks, following a similar move by Moody’s, warning that funding risks and weaker profitability will likely test the sector’s credit strength.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-downgrades-multiple-us-banks-021644932.html
“Average Americans Are Struggling To Pay For Their Cars Following Delinquencies, Price Increases [it’s been called to my attention that the Daily Caller is strongly to the right. I try not to use very political sources but the article is reasonable, so I am leaving it in]…
“Heightened rates of auto loan delinquency and increased costs reveal that Americans are struggling to afford their cars, according to The Wall Street Journal… Gas prices have also been on the rise. The current average for regular gas is currently $3.865 per gallon…”
“The US Leading Economic Indicators fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling an uncertain outlook [this is its longest stretch of negative readings since the GFC].
“The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan. We believe it will be driven by a financial crisis in China.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4630102-us-leading-indicators-still-point-recession
“The Electric-Vehicle Bubble Starts to Deflate… Biden is imitating China just as its industrial policy starts to crack [picture is of an unsold EV graveyard in Hangzhou, China].
“As with real estate, Chinese government support inflated EV investment and misallocated capital that could have been put to more productive uses. Now comes the destruction that invariably follows the government creation…”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-china-biden-administration-industrial-policy-754e1937
“As China’s property crisis plagues its economy and financial system, is a ‘Lehman Moment’ looming?
“Two years after the bond default by one of China’s biggest real estate developers created the first shock waves, Beijing’s promise that everything is under control is becoming increasingly harder to sell to investors.”
“Canada likely sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time: Strategist…
“Colmar argued that the inflated home prices in Canada are a result of two decades’ worth of easy money supplied by the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy for numerous reasons. At present the moment, he sees risk in mortgage rates climbing as Canadian bond yields are dragged up, particularly at a time when debt-to-income ratios are sky high.”
“[UK] Government makes biggest payment to Bank of England in history to fund bond losses.
“The Government transferred a record £14.3bn to the Bank of England last month as increases in interest rates lumbered the Treasury with heavy losses from quantitative easing (QE). The Treasury delivered the single largest state transfer to the Bank on record in July…”
“PwC has experienced more ‘political and economic turbulence’ over the past year than ever before, its UK boss revealed yesterday.
“Kevin Ellis was speaking as the UK arm of the accounting and auditing giant published results for a period which has seen three prime ministers and a bond market meltdown, as well as inflation at the highest level for four decades.”
“Energy bills: 13m British homes ‘did not turn on heating when cold last winter’…
“The increase in gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the UK government to intervene to subsidise the cost of household energy bills, which remained well above pre-energy crisis levels, and belatedly launch an advertising campaign encouraging consumers to reduce their usage.”
“The UK’s oil and gas sector faces the growing prospect of a cash crunch, with the Treasury’s latest attempts to lure lenders back to the North Sea this week likely to fall on deaf ears…
“…only a handful [of banks] are expected to attend the meeting, with dozens of banks already pulling out of investing in domestic fossil fuels due to concerns over the UK’s poor investment climate and growing pressure to fulfil ESG obligations.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/North-Sea-Oil-And-Gas-In-Jeopardy-As-Financing-Falters.html
“Europe’s atomic reactors are getting old…
“Taken together, the UK and EU have 109 nuclear reactors running, most of which were built in the 1970s and 1980s and were commissioned to last about 30 years. That means 95 of those reactors — nearly 90% of the fleet — have passed or are nearing the end of their original lifespan…”
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/EUROPE-ENERGY/NUCLEARPOWER/gdvzwweqkpw/
“The risk of an augmented doom loop for Europe…
“The signs are there, with sovereign exposure to the corporate sector crossing 20 per cent of gross domestic product. This comes from both the European Central Bank’s asset purchases and the generous policy support to shield companies from the effects of back-to-back crises.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5098a302-2add-4d94-92ab-71d72f18f1f3
“Cancer treatment uncertainty: European nations struggle with drug shortages.
“Europe is running out of some key chemotherapy agents that are off-patent and available as generics. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) reports 20 products in ongoing shortage, of which several are used in oncological care.”
“Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit a more than nine-year high on Tuesday, crossing a level that had prompted the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene in the market earlier this month.
“The 10-year JGB yield rose 1.5 basis points (bps) to 0.665%, its highest level since January 2014.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-japans-10-yield-hits-060945231.html
“High food prices put populism on India’s table…
“Pressure is building in Indian kitchens. Prices of tomatoes, onions, potatoes, pulses and spices – all the basic ingredients – are soaring as the world’s most populous country heads towards key state polls later this year and national ones soon after.”
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/high-food-prices-put-populism-indias-table-2023-08-22/
“‘I will go hungry if I have to’ [Pakistan].
“A Pakistani domestic worker is determined to give her children an education and ensure they are fed, even if means she must sometimes skip meals… “The life we have right now is no way to live,” she says. Aisha is therefore determined for her children to have opportunities that she and her husband did not have…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/longform/2023/8/16/school-or-food-a-pakistani-mothers-dilemma
“Afghanistan’s central bank Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) sold 14 million U.S. dollars by auction on Monday to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency afghani, the bank said in a statement…
“Afghanistan has received more than 2 billion dollars in cash over the past 21 months as part of the international community’s humanitarian aid to prevent the economic collapse of the cash-strapped country.”
https://english.news.cn/20230821/30184450706c407b9f73495748633390/c.html
“Iran’s Khuzestan: Thirst and Turmoil…
“Nestled on the Gulf’s northern shores, abutting Iraq, Khuzestan is a microcosm of the many intersecting challenges facing the Islamic Republic. Rich in natural resources but poverty-stricken, historically verdant but increasingly parched…”
“Turkey: Police step up shadow campaign to deport immigrants and refugees.
“Turkey has launched a silent campaign to reduce the number of refugees and migrants within its borders, including Syrians. The uptick comes on the heels of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s successful re-election campaign in May but precedes important municipal elections due to be held next year.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-police-shadow-campaign-deport-immigrants-refugees
“Jordan Foreign Minister says Syrian refugees must eventually return home.
“There are 670,000 registered Syrian refugees in Jordan. The kingdom has made their return an objective of a rapprochement effort with President Bashar Al Assad, along with curbing booming narcotics smuggling from areas under Mr Al Assad’s control.”
“Protests spread Monday in two government-held provinces in southern Syria amid widespread anger over the crash of the Syrian pound and the dwindling purchasing power of many people in the war-torn country, opposition activists said…
“The U.S. dollar has strengthened from 7,000 Syrian pounds at the beginning of 2023 to 15,000 now. At the onset of Syria’s uprising turned-civil war in 2011, the dollar was trading at 47 pounds.”
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/protests-rock-government-held-areas-114436560.html
“Rolling blackouts, sudden shutdowns: Extreme heat boils — and roils — the Middle East.
“In recent years, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have all seen protests ignite over issues of power provision… In this summer’s extraordinary heat, many Middle Eastern countries have… resorted to mandatory work furloughs or power cuts, cannibalizing parts of their economies to save power — and money.”
“Sisi says Egypt’s economic crisis will improve ‘because God exists’…
“”We always say God exists. God is watching us and seeing that in our country, despite these difficult circumstances, we are intent on working seriously in all sectors and fields,” the autocratic president said. Sisi previously described himself as a “doctor” sent by God to cure Egypt’s “ailments”.”
https://www.newarab.com/news/sisi-says-gods-existence-will-heal-egypts-economic-woes
“Zimbabwe to go to polls amid deepening economic crisis.
“An ever-worsening economic situation will hang over Zimbabwean voters when they go to the polls on Wednesday in a repeat of the 2018 election pitting President Emmerson Mnangagwa against his charismatic and relatively youthful challenger, Nelson Chamisa.”
“Argentina’s government has reportedly reached an agreement with supermarkets to limit monthly food price increases to a maximum of 5% for 90 days in an attempt to tame inflation…
“Government officials settled on a deal with 31 representatives of local supermarket chains to “stabilise” prices until Argentina’s national elections in October, Reuters quoted economy minister Sergio Massa as saying last week.”
https://www.just-food.com/news/argentina-sets-grocery-price-control-initiative-to-ease-inflation/
“As Cuba takes leap towards ‘cashless’ economy, entrepreneurs brace for impact…
“Even before the new restrictions, Cuban entrepreneurs faced what might seem insurmountable hurtles anywhere else: spotty electricity and internet, widespread fuel shortages, and no practical way to legally exchange large amounts of local currency into the dollars needed to import merchandise from abroad.”
“Crypto has ‘amplified financial risks’ in emerging markets, central banks warn…
“Cryptocurrency assets have amplified rather than reduced financial risks in less developed economies, and regulators will need to treat them in the same way they oversee other assets, some of the world’s most powerful central banks have warned.”
https://www.ft.com/content/dc6d7505-03b5-4cc2-8fc9-6e3ea2efa63a
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
I don’t read the Daily Caller so I looked it up. It strikes me as funny that you felt the need to defend posting a link to one of their articles. It doesn’t appear to be a wacky fringe news source. I think it’s pretty well known that most mainstream media leans decidedly left. I don’t think you’ve ever felt the need to defend posting a link to media like the Guardian or network news. So please, keep using a variety of sources and know that your intelligent readers will use our critical thinking skills on every single thing that you link. Keep up the fantastic work!
Thanks, Rusty. I’m sure you’re correct re our discerning readers… but someone sent me a note and I feared I might be unwittingly stirring up some hornet’s nest of controversy, hence the disclaimer.
I gather The Daily Caller posts a fair amount of climate denial stuff, which probably doesn’t suit Climate & Economy’s ethos very well, so I may not be featuring them moving forwards.
An example: “When you look at climate alarmists, there are really only two options: they either don’t know what they’re talking about, or they’re lying.”
https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/13/opinion-its-time-to-bring-down-the-church-of-climate-change-once-and-for-all-whitbeck/
I hear you, Panopticon. I encourage you not to be too reactive to every reader as it’s obvious from historical comments that your readers do not share the exact same point of view on everything. No surprise. It’s your site and you get to post what you want. I guess Martin thinks. The Guardian is middle of the road 🤷🏻♀️😂. I certainly was irritated as fuck at some of their coverage of the pandemic. Obviously, they tend to be good on the environment. The Daily Caller might have some good pieces, relevant to the economic side of things. You do sometimes post things from the Wall Street Journal and fox. I think we would all do well to remember something Gandhi said: “Everyone has a piece of the truth.” The older I get, the more I realize the profound wisdom of that statement. It helps me to get beyond the polarization.
“The Daily Caller might have some good pieces, relevant to the economic side of things. You do sometimes post things from the Wall Street Journal and fox.”
This is true. I have to walk a bit of a tightrope and hope that readers understand that my intention is to offer the overview and not to praise or critique the protagonists.
Re Fox, it has “done a Daily Mail” on climate change and gone quite schizophrenic, posting a mix of very good climate articles and denier nonsense. These are strange times.😆
Who are these “intelligent readers” with “critical thinking skills”
you speak of? 😉
That’s right, Rusty – that’s surely the way to live, call the Guardian “left- wing,” and let all the morons and idiots and professional murder slugs in at every opportunity, and watch a thousand points of light emerge to save humanity from the Climatastrophe and global economic Armageddon.
“Intelligent” readers know that’s the best and only way to go, since it has worked so well for the Internet so far – let ‘’em all in, including denier sites such as the Daily Idiots of the world, and watch us hits the heights of social progress ev’where!
I appreciated both daily caller articles.
As you said, the one on automobile debt simply presented the facts of the situation, unless one interprets the inclusion of the cost of a potential UAW strike as anti-union (which it probably was). Good information either way.
The opinion piece was more useful since it is very good example of the current denialist argument. To wit: “AGW does not exist because actions to control it reduce freedoms … here are some poorly written headlines in the mainstream press … and China’s bad. Mmmkay”
If you never are exposed to ideas with which you disagree, how would you know that those ideas exist? Then, knowing what the arguments are, and getting a feeling for how many people agree, one can predict what policies will be enacted.
The loss of freedom argument is a very powerful one. It gets the denier past the obvious facts on the ground (the author never mentioned the climate at all) and presents any potential debater with an impossible challenge. If one fell for the bait, that person would be in the untenable position of trying to argue that:
1. reducing CO2 emissions can be done without restricting freedoms and the economy, and at the same time;
2. try to prove that many (most?) climate activists are not con-artists in it for the money.
an impossible task.
Regarding Rusty’s comment, I would have to disagree with the trope that, “mainstream media leans decidedly left”. I find the Guardian, for example, well to the right compared to most of my thinking. If one agreed with all of the articles and editorials in the Daily Caller one would be a fascist so I think that yes, it is a wacky news source. I can only wish that it was “fringe”. I would, of course, agree that Panopticon’s work is fantastic.
Martin, hey, calm down man. 🙂
My unsolicited and likely unwanted advice – use your very good judgement and all will be well.
“I think that it is pretty well known that most mainstream media leans decidely left? Known by whom? When speaking of the english speaking world, It is pretty well known in my social circles that there is a complete lack of left wing coverage in the MSM there are 3 types of MSM in the English speaking world, conservative, extreme conservative, and ultra conservative. I imagine that some people might be confused do to the massive right wing shi(f)t of the english speaking world of the last 30 or 40 years in which people like Clinton, and Obama and Biden are portrayed as leftist.
If you really want to know what someone on the center left looks like you have to go all the way back to the 1960 and 70s and look for pictures of George McGoven, Eugene McCarthy, and Martin Luther King.
Hi Pan, yes what do you do with those old nuclear plants….? These are really complex headache files that no one can properly solve now that the demolition of the very old ones has only just begun. A wonderful dossier to follow, given the twists and turns in which everyone twists to straighten out what is crooked. Just extend the ‘lifespan and put off the problems for a while longer. Pretty expensive joke by the way…. Cost ‘estimated’ ( count on double) of already 50 billion. Furthermore, just build some more EPR plants and a few billion here and there in SMR research and the eternal throwing away of money in that ‘nuclear fusion project’ that nobody can just stop….
One thing is certain…. (nuclear) energy is getting expensive, very expensive!!! and should start to translate in France into sharply rising kwh prices for consumers now that EDf is again
is in state hands. No more liberal market excuses!!! Just debit/credit annual bills.
…………France: nuclear safety authority gives permission to keep reactor 1 at Tricastin operating beyond its 40th ‘anniversary’
This is a first in France. The French nuclear safety authority has given the go-ahead for reactor 1 at the Tricastin nuclear power plant in south-east France to continue operating beyond its 40th anniversary. The ASN believes the reactor can remain in operation until the next review, which is another 10 years until the next decennial inspection.
So the “major refurbishment” carried out by EDF in 2014 has paid off. The aim of this “refurbishment programme, estimated cost 66 billion euros is to refurbish the nuclear fleet and “upgrade” its safety levels and make it more resistant to “higher temperature levels”. A few months ago, the government also announced the launch of studies to prepare for extending the lifetime of existing plants to 60 years and beyond. This is all in anticipation of the construction of the new generation EPR2 reactors whose construction has yet to begin. They will be operational in 2035 at the earliest. By then, the Flamanville EPR should also finally be up and running. Fuel loading is scheduled for next year, 12 years behind schedule.
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/france/20230822-france-l-autorit%C3%A9-de-s%C3%BBret%C3%A9-nucl%C3%A9aire-autorise-le-fonctionnement-au-del%C3%A0-de-40-ans-du-r%C3%A9acteur-1-de-tricastin
Our amped up and increasingly unpredictable hydrological cycle + sea-level rise will be making life very difficult for nuclear power plants by 2035, I would imagine, Zip. This from last summer:
“Nuclear Power Plants Are Struggling to Stay Cool… a few weeks ago, Électricité de France (EDF) began powering down some reactors along the Rhône and a second major river in the south, the Garonne. That’s by now a familiar story: Similar shutdowns due to drought and heat occurred in 2018 and 2019.”
https://www.wired.com/story/nuclear-power-plants-struggling-to-stay-cool/
Yes indeed Pan…. But we ‘ll keep looking ahead as if nothing is happening 🙂
As I stated earlier a responsible exploration of a nuclear power plant takes at least 120 years! We are very good at that as humanity, we are a frivolous species…..
Still, you are at all your beck and call.
…… Rhone: Switzerland ‘ready’ to negotiate with France
Switzerland says it was “ready” to negotiate an agreement with Paris on regulating Lake Geneva. Hydropower production, shipping, tourism, irrigation… the Rhone has many uses in France. Its water is also used to cool several nuclear reactors. “This agreement allows us to cooperate with France to regulate water levels, during floods or droughts,” The Rhone rises in a glacier in the Swiss Alps, before flowing into Lake Geneva and then into France. The canton of Geneva built a dam to regulate the river’s flow depending on its own hydropower needs and in accordance with standards set out in an 1884 Swiss inter cantonal agreement. But in January 2012, after a period of drought the previous year, France asked Switzerland to draw up a framework for integrated water management between the two countries. Lake Geneva constitutes the largest freshwater reserve in Western Europe. “In view of climate change, the Franco-Swiss agreement will improve the exchange of information,” he said. When Lake Geneva was unregulated, water levels could fluctuate by more than two metres depending on the season, according to Geneva authorities.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/lyon/debit-du-rhone-la-suisse-prete-a-negocier-avec-la-france-20230823
Dr Anas, Oil Expert, Exposes Misinformation in Energy Markets With Data Driven Facts! Ep.88
The RO Show
Dr Anas, Oil Expert, Exposes Misinformation in Energy Markets With Data Driven Facts! Ep.88
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MacroVoices #385 Dr. Anas Alhajji: 2024 Energy Markets Outlook & More
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Dr Anas, Oil Expert, Exposes Misinformation in Energy Markets With Data Driven Facts! Ep.88
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Episode 88:
On today’s show I speak with Dr. Anas Alhajji, renowned energy and oil markets expert, about the disparity between the data and narrative in the energy markets as he reveals the truth directly from the source. We discuss the reality of the underestimated demand in oil and coal as well as the unrealistic expectations from renewables. We examine oil production, supply, OPEC+, and markets outlook. Are we on the brink of an energy crisis?
Chapters:
00:00:00 – The Looming Energy Crisis
00:03:57 – Africa’s Green Energy Leadership
00:07:52 – The Impact of Divestment on Climate Change
00:11:47 – The Role of Oil in Power Generation
00:15:23 – Exaggeration in Reporting Oil Demand
00:18:46 – Limitations of Democracy and Job Prospects for Young Academics
00:22:16 – Understanding Industry Dependency
00:25:55 – The Failure of Sanctions
00:29:45 – The Political Gains of the Shale Revolution
00:33:27 – The Impact of Sanctions on Putin
00:37:15 – Biden Administration’s Price Cap Decision
00:41:00 – Changing Views on the SPR
00:44:39 – The Benefits of Releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
00:48:10 – The Importance of Medium and Shower Crude
00:51:37 – Consequences of OPEC’s Decision
00:55:13 – The Future of the Market in 2024
00:58:59 – The Changing Narrative in the Oil Market
01:02:51 – Demand Instruction and the Elasticity of Substitutes
01:06:27 – The Advantages of Hydrogen as a Battery
01:09:47 – Increase in Demand for Oil and Gas
01:13:24 – The Substitution of Energy Sources
01:16:55 – The Reality of the Energy Transition
01:20:29 – The Need for Transition to Renewable Energy
01:24:15 – Energy Generation Statistics in Different Countries
01:27:47 – The Impending Energy Crisis
01:31:35 – The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Oil and Gas
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xD31cxbQcRQ
Amazing interview tik tock..enjoytoday
S&P downgrading banks is a joke.
155,000,000 Republicans & Democrats will simply go along with bailouts.
If one can’t take care of business they shouldn’t be in business.
“You can’t fix stupid [Republicans & Democrats.]” ,
Let the stockholders eat the losses. Fuck the rich entitled.
Glass Steagall went missing.