“China calls for more secrecy on sensitive energy issues… Strategic rivalry between China and the United States is intensifying and both governments now perceive a system-wide conflict embracing all elements of the economy and society…
“…it is clear both governments increasingly view each other as an existential threat to national security and are marshalling their respective countries for a whole-of-economy and whole-of-society conflict.
“Both governments are trying to indigenise supply chains, control exports of sensitive technologies and information, and limit investment in sensitive sectors – all of which are being increasingly broadly defined.”
“China is considering mounting a response to the latest wave of US sanctions that restrict investments by US venture capital in advanced Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) companies.
“Shu Jueting, a spokesman for Beijing’s ministry of commerce said it was working to understand the impact of President Joe Biden’s latest executive order and considering a response, CNBC reported.”
“China warns US stopovers will push Taiwan into abyss of disaster.
“Pan Xianzhang, deputy head of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, condemned the decision by the US to arrange stopovers for Taiwanese officials, the latest for Vice President William Lai during his trip to Paraguay.”
https://www.laprensalatina.com/china-warns-us-stopovers-will-push-taiwan-into-abyss-of-disaster/
“China building airstrip on disputed island in South China Sea, satellite images suggest…
“The work on Triton in the Paracel group resembles construction in the Spratly cluster of islands to the east which features airstrips, docks and military systems – but appears not as substantial at the moment.”
“China Shadow Bank Crisis Sparks Protest by Angry Investors… Beijing police have unusually strong presence around offices…
“Videos of the incident appear to show around two dozen protesters at Zhongrong, at least one representative of the company, and around 10 police and security officers. It’s the latest sign of turmoil at the trust company, whose liquidity crisis has fueled alarm within financial markets and among Chinese regulators.”
“China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Show… There seems to be a discrepancy when it comes to data regarding China’s housing market.
“Official statistics show new-home prices have slipped just 2.4% from a high in August 2021, while those for existing homes have dropped 6%. But the picture emerging from property agents and private data providers is far more dire.”
“China’s Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted property developer, has filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States as it attempts to restructure and reach an agreement with creditors.
“Evergrande, once China’s top developer, defaulted on its more than $300bn in debt in 2021, becoming a poster child for China’s property crisis.”
“China’s state banks seen selling dollars for yuan in London and New York…
“China’s major state-owned banks were seen busy selling U.S. dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot foreign exchange markets this week, people with direct knowledge of the matter said, in an attempt to slow the yuan’s depreciation.”
“US Fed’s hawkish tone on tightening sparks global concerns as country becomes ‘bomb’ for global economy… [an official Chinese perspective]:
“Further US interest rate hikes will not only pose risks to its embattled banking sector and its economy as a whole, but also represent a grave threat to the global economy, with many emerging and developing markets potentially facing capital outflows, higher energy costs and greater debt burden, Chinese experts said.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296492.shtml
“US escalates trade dispute with Mexico over genetically modified corn.
“The United States has escalated its objections to Mexico’s curbs on genetically modified corn imports, requesting a dispute settlement panel under the North American trade pact, the US Trade Representative (USTR) office has said.”
“Hawaii’s main energy firm in crisis after Maui wildfire fury…
“The class-action lawsuit is seeking to hold Hawaiian Electric responsible for the fires which, besides the human toll, caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage. The company’s credit rating was downgraded to junk by S&P and its stock plunged by almost 64 per cent.”
“Americans will run out of pandemic savings next month, Fed warns. Experts say continued withdrawals could soon push the US to a tipping point…
“Tim Drayson, head of economics at Legal and General Investment Management, said the “unsustainable drawdown of savings” had put the world’s biggest economy “at a potential turning point”.”
“US real yields surge to 2009 highs, recalling post-Lehman carnage.
“Real yields represent the interest-rate returns on a government bond minus the prevailing inflation rate. They are a big-picture indicator of how expensive borrowings are in an economy. Also, rising real yields tend to add to the appeal of bonds as an investment option, which can be negative for stocks on a relative basis.”
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/us-real-yields-surge-2009-170908770.html
“An horrible 20-year Japanese Government Bonds auction today tailed the most since 1987, showing that investors require a higher yield to buy JGBs.
“Rising JGB yields threaten bonds worldwide, so we see EU and US sovereign yields accelerating their rise this morning.”
https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi/status/1692068527631470690
“[UK] Government borrowing costs have soared to the highest levels since 2008 in a blow to Jeremy Hunt’s hopes of cutting taxes before the election.
“Yields on 10-year government bonds hit a 15-year high of 4.7pc on Thursday as investors bet that interest rates will need to rise even higher to tame inflation.”
“If you’re under 50, it’s time to jump ship – get out of Britain while you can.
“…he UK is not so much stagnating as it is fossilising. Fifteen years of anaemic growth mean that real wages are still below their 2008 peak – there are 30 year olds who have seen their entire working career go by without seeing meaningful growth in wages.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/17/under-50-time-jump-ship-leave-britain/
“The number of babies born in England and Wales in a year dropped in 2022 to the lowest level in two decades, according to official figures.
“It follows the recent trend of decreasing live births, which had been the case before the pandemic, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.”
“The Netherlands falls into a technical recession.
“Dutch GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2023, declining by -0.3% compared to the first quarter. This follows a contraction in the first three months of the year, meaning the Netherlands is in a ‘technical recession’. The contraction was mostly driven by declining international trade and household consumption.”
https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-netherlands-in-technical-recession/
“The German economy: from European leader to laggard…
“The 2020s are shaping up to be very different, and not just because the national football team is faltering. Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right populist party, is polling at 20%. Germans are unhappy with their government. Most worrying, Germany’s vaunted economic model and state look unable to provide the growth and public services people have come to expect.”
“Longest technical recession on record in Hungary.
“Contrary to expectations, Hungary posted a quarterly drop in GDP in the second quarter of 2023. The latest data extends the longest technical recession streak on record. We now see a rising chance of a full-year contraction in GDP growth.”
https://think.ing.com/snaps/longest-technical-recession-on-record-in-hungary/
“Thai baht instability rises due to political unrest.
“Political unrest is heightening baht oscillations against the US dollar, as Thailand finds itself without a stable government, the head of the Bank Thailand asserts. This turbulence introduces a greater risk factor amongst investors…”
https://thethaiger.com/news/business/thai-baht-instability-rises-due-to-political-unrest
“Burger King says tomatoes on ‘vacation’ as India battles food inflation…
“Burger King has scrapped tomatoes from its wraps and burgers in many Indian outlets after prices more than quadrupled, the latest symptom of surging food inflation that is hitting consumers hard across the world’s most populous nation.”
“Petrol queues choke Iranian cities.
“Long lines of motorists leading to petrol stations have become a ubiquitous scene in Tehran and several other cities across the oil-producing country in recent weeks. Waiting in slow-moving queues for up to an hour has become common, even late at night or early in the morning.”
https://www.intellinews.com/tehran-blog-petrol-queues-choke-iranian-cities-288471/
“Fuel price protests erupt in Syrian Druze city.
“Protests erupted on Thursday in the ethnic Druze city of Sweida in southwest Syria against economic collapse and a controversial increase in fuel prices. Hundreds of demonstrators burned tyres, blocked roads and chanted anti-government slogans…”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2356776/middle-east
“Lebanon without electricity after power plants run out of money.
“The Electricity Corporation of Lebanon (EDL) announced yesterday that two power stations have stopped operating for financial reasons, resulting in power cuts throughout the country. The corporation said that the operator, Primesouth, had informed it of the suspension of operations at the Deir Aamar and Zahrani power stations due to the failure to pay the operating company in foreign currency.”
“Egypt blackouts become symbol of malaise a decade after Sisi’s rise…
“Along with record inflation and a sharp weakening of the currency, the outages have become a potent symptom of the worst economic crisis to hit Egypt since Sisi took power in 2014 on promises of stability and development.”
“‘We need power’: Zimbabweans hope for end to blackouts as election nears.
“At the fuel station that Emmanuel Bhuru supervises in Zimbabwe’s second industrial city of Bulawayo, electricity outages are the norm. As the station has no functional generator, his staff now work shorter hours. For most of their 12-hour shifts, they sit around waiting for electricity to work…”
“Nuclear ‘fiasco’ threatens to worsen South Africa’s load-shedding…
“The latest delay to the Unit 1 upgrade is particularly problematic because the plant’s other unit is set to begin a shutdown to complete the same programme of renovation just days later… But if both units of the plant are taken offline simultaneously, blackouts are certain to worsen even further.”
“Nigeria gives $235 million to states to buy rice, maize to ease food shortages.
“Nigeria has approved a total of 180 billion naira ($235 mln) for its 36 states to procure rice and maize to cushion the effects of food shortages across the country and hardship caused by reforms, Borno state governor Babagana Zulum said on Thursday.”
“Ice cream prices double in a month as Argentina battles inflation.
“When Ernesto Acuna, a convenience store owner in Buenos Aires, received the new price list this week from his supplier of the snacks, condiments, sodas and ice creams he sells, he was shocked to find costs on some had risen 60% since late July.”
“Chile’s Codelco at risk of insolvency as debt grows, CESCO report says.
“Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, is at risk of insolvency due to rising costs and a growing debt pile stemming from projects that missed output targets, Chile’s Centre for Copper and Mining Studies (CESCO) said in a report seen by Reuters.”
“Inflation Reduction Act May Lead To Major Metals Supply Crunch…
“The S&P Global report specifically mentioned nickel and cobalt as threatened by supply shortages in the near future. The hundreds of billions in subsidies for clean energy may ultimately lead to a supply shortage in a number of crucial metals.“
“The man hired to turn around the flagging fortunes of Suncor Energy Inc. said Tuesday he believes the company has been too focused in recent years on the energy transition and must get back to an oil-centred business strategy.
“CEO Rich Kruger… said he believes Suncor must not neglect “the business drivers of today” in favour of future-focused, clean and low-carbon energy pursuits.”
My apologies for the weird colour formatting today btw. WordPress went renegade and kept using all the colours of the rainbow on my bold text, so I’ve had to throw my hands up and go dark grey across the board.
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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After covering up decades of horrible human rights records and other nasty stuff , China is now forced to x-file their perceived front runner status on green energy , which was of course a poster child for left green wingers that can make the West a bad guy in any context .
To be fair to China for a change , however appaling most of their policies , the greenwashing of big coal sections , unmissable in their energy grid , is something now done by most major powers .
It’s all speeding up the tipping points very nicely, in human history the individuals that wer best at self overestimation became leaders , and humankind as a whole is very good at playing nice for the neighbors . There is humor to be found there .
The tragedy of the commons took all kinds of new avenues with nations acting as if they protected their commons .
“… pressure for a rapid reduction in emissions, supported by foreign governments and NGOs, must be tempered by the realities of the country’s resources and its external security.”
I wonder where Zhang Jinhua is on Paul Chefurka’s Ladder of Awareness. Sounds like he may be on the cusp of stage four:
“The realization that a solution in one domain may worsen a problem in another marks the beginning of large-scale system-level thinking. It also marks the transition from thinking of the situation in terms of a set of problems to thinking of it in terms of a predicament. At this point the possibility that there may not be a solution begins to raise its head.”
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/LadderOfAwareness.html
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/a-new-climate-frontier.html
A review of whats happinin’ now. There is a link to the original paper in the article.
Thanks, Lou. Paul Beckwith talks about Hansen et al’s unnerving new paper in his latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-YobPD8D_E
That’s actually not a bad overview Xi Pinada , but it is pretty darn ironic they have those annoying commercials filling half the screens of a blog / site called ” naked capitalism ” , or it’s an in-joke kind of snobby thing
Reminds me of a guy like Guy McP who turned out to be a very good salesperson as well as a doomer
Regarding China and the trade war that Biden started. We can all breathe a sigh of relief that no-one was stupid enough to meet with Lai during his visit.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296511.shtml?id=11
and of course this article sums it up nicely and (if you read around the anti-environment slant) highlights the silliness of thinking that the US can produce metals (the rare earths especially) as cheaply as the Russians and Chinese.
“Inflation Reduction Act May Lead To Major Metals Supply Crunch…”
Lou, it was really Trump that instigated the trade war.
Protectionism of various kinds seems to be a fairly standard response to resource-scarcity but it makes less sense now that all nations are so well integrated into the global whole.
“Lou, it was really Trump that instigated the trade war.”
I stand corrected.
Common Justin, let’s be real about these parts of both the current world economy as the proposed green version, it’s not even feasible to transform to 8billion ppl scale use of those rare earths under perfect conditions, let alone the constraints countries like Bolivia and Chile work under , and I assume your only being friendly to Lou here when you overlook Chinas ‘other’ issues while discussing the economic side of rare earths
In some ways you guys compartmentalize way too much and by doing that you’re just playing hypothetical theory games .
Geopolitics will never allow your best case Hopes
Also , why always the auto need to mention Trump . I studied economy before I switched to history , most (classic) economic theory started out from decent math en descended over the decades into human made fantasy land , culminating in 2008 which was never fixed. Nothing to do with trump an sich. The models we use wouldn’t work with a green , purple of transgender led economy . They just dont make sense . Too much incentives build in for finite growth, Red Queen turns on the green part that’s only adding the need for resources barely replanting anything. Overpopulation pretty much locked other pollution issues in for problems that last past 2100 .
Economy is not some noble scientific beast to keep afloat , it’s the most amateuristic of sciences and was exposed this century for a ponzi scheme. Some incessant need to keep China or Saudi Arabia as jewels in the crown of it is self loathing and adding to the nonsense of economic theory. It’s not a vacuum it operates in . It functions with Bolivian miners that rebel , water needed for lithium mining running out, china putting political pressure of east africa . It’s just running itself into the ground, trump or no trump . China or no china
You really need to stop taking economy so seriously Lou. It’s all man made fantasy post 1960 thereabouts and you were around for that, I wasn’t even born for years then
All people are Homo Sapiens. One race Human. The beautiful Planet Earth has been here 4.5 billion years. Homo Sapiens 300,000. Our individual lives , maybe 90 years. Yesterday is history, tomorrow’s a mystery, today is the gift, thats why they call it The Present. Happy, Peaceful Present Moment to all visiting The Planet Earth.
Speaking of protectionism, reminded me of this US Dem spiel:
August 16, 2023 (Wednesday)
Three big stories today. First of all, the Democrats are taking a victory lap on the anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law that has transformed the U.S. economy and for which not a single Republican voted.
The IRA was the eventual form President Joe Biden’s initial “Build Back Better” plans took. It offered to lower Americans’ energy costs with a 30% tax credit for energy-efficient windows, heat pumps, or newer models of appliances; capped the cost of drugs at $2,000 per year for people on Medicare; and made healthcare premiums fall for certain Americans by expanding the Affordable Care Act.
By raising taxes on the very wealthy and on corporations and bringing the Internal Revenue Service back up to full strength so that it can crack down on tax cheating, as well as saving the government money by permitting it to negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, the IRA was expected to raise $738 billion. That, plus about $891 billion from other sources, enabled the law to make the largest investment ever in addressing climate change while still bringing down the federal government’s annual deficit.
“This is a BFD,” former President Barack Obama tweeted a year ago.
“Thanks, Obama,” Biden responded.
The law has driven significant investment in U.S. manufacturing. Indeed, the chief executive officer of U.S. Steel recently said the law should be renamed the “Manufacturing Renaissance Act,” as manufacturers return previously offshored production to the U.S. That same shift has brought supply chains back to the U.S. These changes have meant new, well-paid manufacturing jobs that have been concentrated in Republican-dominated states and in historically disadvantaged communities.
Scientists Alicia Zhao and Haewon McJeon, who recently published an article in Science, today wrote that the IRA “brings the US significantly closer to meeting its 2030 climate target [of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to 50–52% below 2005 levels], taking expected emissions from 25–31% below 2005 levels down to 33–40% below.”
While Republican presidential candidates took shots at the IRA today—former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley called it “a communist manifesto”—Democrats have pointed out that Republicans have been eager to take credit for IRA investments in their districts without mentioning either that they voted against the IRA, or that they are still trying to repeal it.”
Let this Clever Ape fling some reality.
There is no proof for the existence of any god ever worshiped by the delusional monkey minds.
What can we do when the civilization heat engine leads to NTHE? Die Dumb.
I’ll add more brilliant comments tomorrow.