“Soaring temperatures and food prices threaten violent unrest. As the world warms, the link between heat and social disturbance is an increasingly important one and, this summer, an especially concerning one.
“Each upheaval has its own causes, but certain factors make disturbances more likely everywhere. Surging temperatures, rising food prices and cuts to public spending—three of the strongest predictors of turmoil—have driven estimates of the potential for unrest to unprecedented highs in recent months.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-temperatures-food-prices-threaten-103317844.html
“Why India’s export ban and the looming El Niño spell big trouble for global rice stocks…
“If India, the world’s largest exporter, sticks by its ban, millions of people are likely to be plunged into hunger by skyrocketing rice prices, which are already at an 11-year high… It comes at a time of acute food insecurity… And only last week, the cost of wheat jumped by 13 per cent and corn nine per cent after Russia pulled out of the deal allowing Ukraine to export grains via the Black Sea.”
“Global Food Insecurity? Time for Rationing…
“Faced with climate-driven food shortages around the world, we might do something very similar [to WW2]… That would mean wartime-level control of agriculture and distribution. The big grocery chains couldn’t jack up prices; farmers and ranchers would raise the crops and livestock that government required of them, at a guaranteed price and with subsidies for everything from water supply to transportation.”
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2023/07/27/Global-Food-Insecurity-Rationing/
“‘We can avoid the worst of it’ – new [IPCC] climate chairman.
“A scientist who chairs one of the world’s most influential climate change bodies has said “we can avoid the worst” of rising global temperatures. Prof Jim Skea told BBC Scotland that measures could include changing work practices and how we heat homes.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66324275
“Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023.
“Global coal consumption climbed to a new all-time high in 2022 and will stay near that record level this year as strong growth in Asia for both power generation and industrial applications outpaces declines in the United States and Europe, according to the IEA’s latest market update.”
https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-set-to-remain-at-record-levels-in-2023
“The Harsh Truth: We’re Using More Oil Than Ever.
“In this age of climate crisis, the world is consuming more crude than ever. Peak oil demand? Not yet… It will take a while before governments certify it, but every piece of data points in the very same direction: In the past few weeks, global oil demand has surpassed the monthly peak set in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“Global electric vehicle supply chains struggle to keep up as demand surges…
“Squeezed supply chains and looming shortages of critical metals which are key for battery manufacturing present a major risk for the energy transition as we head towards 2030. Lagging investments in mining may also add another challenge to the mix as we begin to see the supply-demand balance grow increasingly fragile.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/global-electric-vehicle-supply-chains-struggle-to-keep-up/
“Gasoline Is Surging All Over the World in Fresh Inflation Blow… The resurgence in gasoline potentially poses a headache for central banks…
““Higher energy costs may push up consumer prices and lead to renewed goods inflation — a sector where price increases have slowed,” said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief US economist at Citigroup Inc.”
“Fed Raises Interest Rates To 22-Year High, Credit Crunch Continues For Small Businesses…
“With today’s action, the Federal Reserve has now raised its policy rate by 5 1/4 percentage points since early last year. The Fed chair acknowledged that we have seen the effects of policy tightening on demand. Powell admitted that “the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.””
“Big Consumer Companies Keep Raising Prices, Complicating Fed’s Job.
“Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Unilever have each reported raising prices significantly in the second quarter, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation… Escalating Russian attacks in Ukraine and the recent breakdown of a deal to export grain from Black Sea ports have put pressure on prices for key commodities like corn and wheat.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/business/food-prices-fed-inflation.html
“Credit Markets Are Creaking, Creating Economic Uncertainty…
““The financial system is this machine, and it’s shaking terribly because of all the stress put on it,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, referring to pressures from higher interest rates, among other strains. “The Fed is desperately trying to keep it from blowing a gasket.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/business/credit-markets-uncertainty-interest-rates.html
“The end may be close for Yellow Corp, a nearly century-old trucking company with 30,000 employees.
“The company narrowly avoided a fatal strike by the Teamsters earlier this week after Yellow missed payments to pensions and healthcare funds, as the union agreed to give it extra time to make the payments. But the company has stopped picking up new freight from customers…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/business/yellow-corp-bankruptcy/index.html
“US Officials Weigh Deeming a Syphilis Emergency as Drugs Run Low.
“A shortage of penicillin to treat a skyrocketing number of syphilis cases is so dire that US health officials are debating the need to declare a public health emergency, according to people familiar with the matter. Major US medical centers are rationing the recommended treatment for the deadly sexually transmitted disease because of a supply crunch.”
“Soaring rates of depression fuel long-term sickness crisis [UK].
“Britain’s long-term sickness crisis has been fuelled by a surge in depression after lockdowns, official data shows. Mental health problems were the single largest cause for being off work amongst those who have dropped out of the labour force due to long-term sickness, according to the Office for National Statistics.”
“Rishi Sunak is sticking with a 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales for fear of an industry backlash that would threaten green investment in Britain.
“Instead ministers are considering relaxing interim targets for electric vehicle sales and allowing “more flexibility” on hybrid cars beyond 2030 as they look for ways to ease the burden of net-zero policies.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-sticking-to-2030-ban-on-sales-of-new-petrol-cars-cjsf37kjt
“One killed as ship carrying 3,000 cars catches fire off Dutch coast.
“A blaze on a cargo ship carrying nearly 3,000 vehicles off the Dutch coast has killed one person and injured several others, with coastguards warning that the fire could last for several days… The ship’s owner said an electric car in the cargo was suspected as a possible cause for the blaze.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/cargo-ship-fire-off-dutch-coast
“Europe’s banks are bracing for a wave of defaults.
“Consumer price inflation in Europe, while falling, remains high, weighing on households’ finances. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are hampering economic activity, with the 20 countries that use the euro already in a recession.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/business/europe-banks-brace-for-loan-defaults/index.html
“From debt to death on the streets: Just how big is Africa’s loans crisis?
“As anti-austerity protests hit Kenya, other debt-laden countries may face a similar fate… There could yet be more angry public protests as governments confront hard choices about where they spend their next Naira, Shilling or Kwacha. The crisis might well see governments facing imminent elections, being voted out in favour of parties that promise less austerity.”
https://www.financeuncovered.org/stories/africa-sovereign-debt-crisis-kenya-riots
“Food crisis in Africa: The high cost of imported fertilizers is adding to the problem.
“Global fertilizer suppliers have made incredibly high profits in 2022/23 on the back of price spikes attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war. The profits of the world’s top nine producers trebled in 2022 from two years previously. The margins and impacts have been even greater on fertilizer supplies to African farmers.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-food-crisis-africa-high-imported.html
“Niger: Soldiers announce coup and president’s removal on national TV [Niger supplies about 5% of the world’s uranium].
“Soldiers in the West African country of Niger announced a coup on national television and said they had removed President Mohamed Bazoum from power. Supporters of the president and those in favour of the rebellion rallied in the capital city, Niamey.”
“Nigerian public doctors strike over pay after fuel subsidy axed.
“Frontline doctors in Nigerian public hospitals began an indefinite strike on Wednesday over grievances including demands for a pay rise after the removal of a subsidy on petrol, the doctors’ union said. The doctors are the first public sector workers to strike after fuel prices more than tripled…”
“Dinar devaluation, one of key factors behind drug shortages in Tunisia.
“The devaluation of the dinar is one of the main factors responsible for the shortage of medicines and the financial imbalance of the Central Pharmacy of Tunisia (PCT), in addition to the deficit of the social security funds (CNAM and CNSS) which prevents the reimbursements on which the PCT depends, according to the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy.”
“Egypt announces emergency actions to tackle power shortages.
“Egypt’s government will implement emergency moves, including rationing electricity and increasing fuel oil imports, as it bids to tackle a summer power shortage, the country’s prime minister said on Thursday.”
“Ittai Ben-Zeev, chief executive officer of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, warned of a looming Israeli financial crisis amid the ongoing judicial overhaul crisis.
“He urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to intervene and change direction while there was still time to avert the crisis.”
https://allisrael.com/tel-aviv-stock-exchange-chief-warns-of-a-looming-israeli-financial-crisis
“Lebanese officials were in a last-minute scramble on Wednesday to avoid leaving the crisis-hit country’s central bank without a leader when governor Riad Salameh’s 30-year tenure ends next week.
“The prospect of a vacuum at the top of the central bank has added to concerns about the further fragmentation of the state as it barrels toward a fifth year of financial turmoil.”
“Protesters, banks demand action after Iraqi dinar plunges post-US sanctions…
“The latest US sanctions are in addition to previous ones on eight banks, leaving almost a third of Iraq’s 72 banks blacklisted, two Iraqi central bank officials said. The ban has pushed the market rate of the dollar from 1,470 dinars per dollar to 1,570 dinars per dollar in the last two days.”
“Power outages in Yemen’s southern city of Aden worsened on Thursday as private electricity generators turned off supplies in protest over unpaid bills.
“Amid sweltering summer temperatures, the city’s state-run electricity company reported that many of the private firms that supplied the city with electricity had progressively withdrawn their services in a bid to put pressure on the government to meet outstanding payments.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2345461/middle-east
“Southeast Asia suffers power shortages due to record-smashing heat waves.
“Southeast Asia usually experiences its hottest months of the year in April and May. This year, however, most countries in the region have been hit by unprecedented heat waves. Thailand experienced its hottest day on record on April 15…”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back over the weekend with a “Climate” thread.
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Wow things look like a spinning top about to break apart. Meanwhile the heat is going to be intensifying next week here in the states. Its going to be a horrifying freak show. Yeah weather channel pimping co2 drawdown right? I also saw the new mission impossible yesterday and in the movie they say we are fighting over the last of earths resources air, water etc. and we need ai to save us from destroying us more or less Ethan Hunt aka tom cruise and mr scientology will save us.
I actually really want to see that movie, Heather, but the mobile cinema doesn’t make it here until September.
Hello Pan,
A word on Niger. The French have been rocked by this new coup in yet another Sahel country. Macron even convened a Defence Council meeting today in the holidays. Niger a former French colony that gained independence in 1960, is/was one of Paris’ last allies in the Sahel.
Macron, has already condemned the coup by the junta that toppled Mohamed Bazoum “in the strongest possible terms”. The French foreign ministry immediately stated that it “does not recognise the authorities” of the putsch led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani. After Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger is the third country in the Sahel where there has been a coup since 2020. Russian influence seems to be growing in those areas and Putin is handing out all kinds of free !!! ‘beads and mirrors’ at his Africa summit in Petersburg. One thing is clear the EU and the former colonial powers no longer have any say there. That is extra annoying for France in this case. There are still 1,500 Frenchmen stationed there and the uranium interests are still significant too. French mining group Orano (formerly Areva), which employs 900 local workers across Niamey and Arlit.
We’ll see if we get any power this winter 🙂
Zip, thank you for those insights. I thought long and hard about posting an article covering the wider geopolitical ramifications of Niger and the involvement of foreign powers including Russia/Wagner but in the end opted for brief and neutral, as I am loathe to open a hornet’s nest of controversy.